• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.62 no.4
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• pp.99-110
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• 2020

The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCR defined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-direct flow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climate change, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRs should also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General Circulation Models) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winter increased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in most GCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. The WCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.55-67
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• 2021

Hornbeams (Carpinus spp.), which are widely distributed in South Korea, are recognized as one of the most abundant species at climax stage in the temperate forests. Although the distribution and vegetation structure of the C. laxiflora community have been reported, little ecological information of C. tschonoskii is available. Little effort was made to examine the distribution shift of these species under the future climate conditions. This study was conducted to predict potential shifts in the distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii in 2050s and 2090s under the two sets of climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution of two species using the occurrence data derived from the 6th National Forest Inventory data as well as climate and topography data. It was found that the main factors for the distribution of C. laxiflora were elevation, temperature seasonality, and mean annual precipitation. The distribution of C. tschonoskii, was influenced by temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal rang. It was projected that the total habitat area of the C. laxiflora could increase by 1.05% and 1.11% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the distributional area of C. tschonoskii could expand under the future climate conditions. These results highlighted that the climate change would have considerable impact on the spatial distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii. These also suggested that ecological information derived from climate change impact assessment study can be used to develop proper forest management practices in response to climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.32-32
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• 2017

기후변화에 따른 이상가뭄과 홍수의 영향으로 하천의 수문과 수리적 요소가 변화되고 그로인해 발생하는 지형변화와 그에 따른 수질변화 분석이 필요하다. 낙동강의 효율적인 수질관리를 위해서는 수질과 더불어 유역관리도 함께 이루어져야 한다. 기후변화로 인한 가뭄이나 홍수 등 극한 사상이 보 같은 인공구조물이 설치되어 정체성 수역이 된 낙동강 수계에 어떠한 수질변화가 일어나는지에 대한 연구가 필요하며 이를 고려한 체계적이고 통합적인 수질관리대책이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강 유역의 합천창녕보와 창녕함안보 구간에서 HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5와 8.5를 적용하여 미래기후시나리오를 예측하여 수문분석을 수행하였다. 수문분석 결과인 유출량을 하상변동모형의 입력자료로 적용하여 상?하류 구간의 지형변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 마지막으로 지형변화가 수질에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 QUAL-MEV 수질모형을 적용하여 지형변화에 따른 수질분석의 상대적 비교를 통해 기후변화와 지형변화의 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 연구결과, 기후시나리오의 경우 HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 보다 8.5에서 강수가 6% 증가하는 결과를 나타내고 그에 따라 유출량도 증가하고 있다. 하상변동 분석결과, 유량이 많은 풍수년에 침식과 퇴적양상이 크게 나타나고 RCP 8.5에서 변동 폭이 크게 나타났다. 하천지형변화를 고려한 수질분석결과, 유량의 증가에 따라 수질도 개선되는 결과를 나타내고 있다.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.105-117
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• 2023

Climate change and invasive alien plant species (IAPs) are having a significant impact on mountain ecosystems. The combination of climate change and socio-economic development is exacerbating the invasion of IAPs, which are a major threat to biodiversity loss and ecosystem functioning. Species distribution modelling has become an important tool in predicting the invasion or suitability probability under climate change based on occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt modelling was applied to predict the current suitable distribution of most noxious weed A. adenophora (Spreng) R. King and H. Robinson and analysed the changes in distribution with the use of current (year 2000) environmental variables and future (year 2050) climatic scenarios consisting of 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Bhutan. Species occurrence data was collected from the region of interest along the road side using GPS handset. The model performance of both current and future climatic scenario was moderate in performance with mean temperature of wettest quarter being the most important variable that contributed in model fit. The study shows that current climatic condition favours the A. adenophora for its invasion and RCP 2.6 climatic scenario would promote aggression of invasion as compared to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. This can lead to characterization of the species as preferring moderate change in climatic conditions to be invasive, while extreme conditions can inhibit its invasiveness. This study can serve as reference point for the conservation and management strategies in control of this species and further research.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.58 no.1
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• pp.39-51
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• 2016

Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme flood exceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected by two main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should be considered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land use change scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floods of 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulation described that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changes in design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligible because the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.275-280
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• 2015

In order to figure out the future drought characteristics of the Jeonju plains, the major crop production area in Korea, daily agricultural drought indexes based on soil water balance were calculated for the relevant 12.5 km by 12.5 km grid cell using the weather data generated by the RCP8.5 climate scenario during 1951-2100. The calculations were grouped into five climatological normal years, the past (1951-1980), the present (1981-2010), and the three futures (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the soil moisture conditions in early spring, worst for both the past and present normal years, will ameliorate gradually in the future and the crop water stress in spring season was projected to become negligible by the end of this century. Furthermore, the drought frequency in early spring was projected to diminish, resulting in rare occurrence of spring drought by that time. However, the result also showed that the soil moisture conditions during the summer season (when most crops grow in Jeonju plain) will deteriorate and the drought incidence will be more frequent than in the past or present period.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.56 no.3
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• pp.19-29
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• 2014

This study was to evaluate the potential climate change impact on watershed hydrological components of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, lateral flow, return flow, and streamflow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For Yongdam dam watershed (930 $km^2$), the SWAT model was calibrated for five years (2002-2006) and validated for three years (2004-2006) using daily streamflow data at three locations and daily soil moisture data at five locations. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were 0.43-0.67 and 0.48-0.70 for streamflow, and 0.16-0.65 and 0.27-0.76 for soil moisture, respectively. For future evaluation, the HadGEM3-RA climate data by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were adopted. The biased future data were corrected using 30 years (1982-2011, baseline period) of ground weather data. The HadGEM3-RA 2080s (2060-2099) temperature and precipitation showed increase of $+4.7^{\circ}C$ and +22.5 %, respectively based on the baseline data. The impacts of future climate change on the evapotranspiration, surface runoff, baseflow, and streamflow showed changes of +11.8 %, +36.8 %, +20.5 %, and +29.2 %, respectively. Overall, the future hydrologic results by RCP emission scenarios showed increase patterns due to the overall increase of future temperature and precipitation.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.73-84
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• 2015

An embankment raising project on 113 agricultural reservoirs in Korea was implemented in 2009 to increase water supply capacity for agricultural water and instream uses. This study evaluated the future water supply capacity of the Imgo reservoir at which the agricultural reservoir embankment raising project was completed, considering climate change scenarios. The height of the embankment of the reservoir was increased by 4.5 m, thereby increasing its total storage from 1,657.0 thousand to 3,179.5 thousand cubic meters. To simulate the reservoir water storage with respect to climate changes, two climate change scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (in which greenhouse gas reduction policy was executed and not executed, respectively) were applied with bias correction for reflecting the climate characteristics of the target basin. The analysis result of the agricultural water supply capacity in the future, after the agricultural reservoir embankment raising project is implemented, revealed that the water supply reliability and the agricultural water supply increased, regardless of the climate change scenarios. By simulating the reservoir water storage considering the instream flow post completion of the embankment raising project, it was found that water shortage in the reservoir in the future is not likely to occur when it is supplied with an appropriate instream flow. The range of instream flow tends to decrease over time under RCP 8.5, in which the greenhouse gas reduction policy was not executed, and the restoration of reservoir storage was lower in this scenario than in RCP 4.5, in which greenhouse gas reduction policy was executed.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.77-93
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• 2013

Global warming accelerates both carbon (C) input through increased forest productivity and heterotrophic C emission in forest soils, and a future trend in soil C dynamics is uncertain. In this study, the Korean forest soil carbon model (KFSC model) was applied to 1,467,458 ha of Pinus densiflora forests in Korea to predict future C dynamics under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP scenario). Korea was divided into 16 administrative regions, and P. densiflora forests in each region were classified into six classes by their stand ages : 1 to 10 (I), 11 to 20 (II), 21 to 30 (III), 31 to 40 (IV), 41 to 50 (V), and 51 to 80-year-old (VI+). The forest of each stand age class in a region was treated as a simulation unit, then future net primary production (NPP), soil respiration (SR) and forest soil C stock of each simulation unit were predicted from the 2012 to 2100 under RCP scenario and constant temperature scenario (CT scenario). As a result, NPP decreased in the initial stage of simulation then increased while SR increased in the initial stage of simulation then decreased in both scenarios. The mean NPP and SR under RCP scenario was 20.2% and 20.0% higher than that under CT scenario, respectively. When the initial age class was I, IV, V or VI+, predicted soil C stock under CT scenario was higher than that under RCP scenario, however, the countertrend was observed when the initial age class was II or III. Also, forests having a lower site index showed a lower soil C stock. It suggested that the impact of temperature on NPP was higher when the forests grow faster. Soil C stock under RCP scenario decreased at the end of simulation, and it might be derived from exponentially increased SR under the higher temperature condition. Thus, the difference in soil C stock under two scenarios will be much larger in the further future.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.4
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• pp.63-72
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• 2018

The main function of an agricultural reservoir is to supply irrigation water to paddy rice fields in South Korea. Therefore, the operation of a reservoir is significantly affected by the phenology of paddy rice. For example, the early stage of irrigation season, a lot of irrigation water is required for transplanting rice. Therefore, water storage in the reservoir before irrigation season can be a key factor for sustainable irrigation, and it becomes more important under climate change situation. In this study, we analyzed the climate change impacts on reservoir storage rate at the beginning of irrigation period and simulated the reservoir storage, runoff, and irrigation water requirement under RCP scenarios. Frequency analysis was conducted with simulation results to analyze water supply probabilities of reservoirs. Water supply probability was lower in RCP 8.5 scenario than in RCP 4.5 scenario because of low precipitation in the non-irrigation period. Study reservoirs are classified into 5 groups by water supply probability. Reservoirs in group 5 showed more than 85 percentage probabilities to be filled up from half-filled condition during the non-irrigation period, whereas group 1 showed less than 5 percentages. In conclusion, reservoir capacity to catchment area ratio mainly affected water supply probability. If the ratio was high, reservoirs tended to have a low possibility to supply enough irrigation water amount.