• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.89-99
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• 2018

This study analyzed the change of the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the Soyanggang dam basin using the results of 26 CMIP5 GCMs based on AR5 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was used to simulate the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the target watershed. The simulation was performed during 2010~2016 as the reference year and during 2010~2099 as the analysis period. Bias correction of input data such as precipitation and air temperature were conducted for the reference period of 2006~2016. Results were analyzed for 3 different periods, 2025s (2010~2040), 2055s (2041~2070), and 2085s (2071~2099). It demonstrated that the change of dam inflow gradually increases 9.5~15.9 % for RCP 4.5 and 13.3~29.8 % for RCP 8.5. The change of evapotranspiration gradually increases 1.6~8.6 % for RCP 4.5 and 1.5~8.5 % for RCP8.5.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.378-378
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• 2018

우리나라의 다목적댐 저수지 운영기준은 홍수기에 발생한 유입량에 의존하고 있으며 최근들어 빈번하게 발생하고 있는 가뭄으로 현재 기준으로는 안정적 용수공급을 하기 힘든 상황이다. 이러한 가뭄에 의한 용수부족을 사전에 대비하기 위해 국토교통부에서는 댐 용수부족 대비 용수공급 조정기준을 제시하였다. 기준에 의해 가뭄시 다목적댐에서는 4단계의 가뭄단계(관심, 주의, 경계, 심각)로 관리되며 용수제한공급이 시행된다. 하지만 가뭄단계 해제시 다소 보수적인 기준으로 인해 용수제한공급으로 인한 피해를 최소화하기 위해 가뭄단계별 해제기준을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서는 AR5 RCP 4.5/8.5 26개 시나리오를 분석하여 기간신뢰도와 공급신뢰도를 산출하고 하위 시나리오와 median 값을 가지는 시나리오를 선정하여 해제기준을 적용하였다. 기간 공급신뢰도, 회복도 및 취약도와 추가공급가능량 및 용수 추가공급가능일수를 통해 용수공급능력을 평가하였다. 시나리오별로 용수공급 실패기간 유지일수에 따라 기간 공급신뢰도와 회복도 및 취약도가 상이하게 분석되어 향후 미래 기후변화시나리오 적용 분석시 적절한 기후변화 시나리오의 선정이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.373-386
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• 2016

The future variability of Wind Energy Density (WED) over the Korean Peninsula under RCP climate change scenario is projected using ensemble analysis. As for the projection of the future WED, changes between the historical period (1981~2005) and the future projection (2021~2050) are examined by analyzing annual and seasonal mean, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) of WED. The annual mean of WED in the future is expected to decrease compared to the past ones in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. However, the CV is expected to increase in RCP 8.5. WEDs in spring and summer are expected to increase in both scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In particular, it is predicted that the variation of CV for WED in winter is larger than other seasons. The time series of WED for three major wind farms in Korea exhibit a decrease trend over the future period (2021~2050) in Gochang for autumn, in Daegwanryeong for spring, and in Jeju for autumn. Through analyses of the relationship between changes in wind energy and pressure gradients, the fact that changes in pressure gradients would affect changes in WED is identified. Our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1149-1159
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• 2018

This study aims to predict the future flood damage cost of 113 middle range watersheds using 26 GCM outputs, hourly maximum rainfall, 10-min maximum rainfall, number of days of 80 mm/day, daily rainfall maximum, annual rainfall amount, DEM, urbanization ratio, population density, asset density, road improvement ratio, river improvement ratio, drainage system improvement ratio, pumping capacity, detention basin capacity and previous flood damage costs. A constrained multiple linear regression model was used to construct the relationships between the flood damage cost and other variables. Future flood damage costs were estimated for different RCP scenarios such as 4.5 and 8.5. Results demonstrated that rainfall related factors such as annual rainfall amount, rainfall extremes etc. widely increase. It causes nationwide future flood damage cost increase. Especially the flood damage cost for Eastern part watersheds of Kangwondo and Namgang dam area may mainly increase.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.439-449
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• 2015

In this study, reliable future runoff projections based on RCPs for Yongdam dam watershed was performed using SWAT model, which was validated by k-fold cross validation method, and investigated the factors that cause the differences with respect to runoff projections between this study and previous studies. As a result, annual average runoff compared to baseline runoff would increase 17.7% and 26.1% in 2040s and 2080s respectively under RCP8.5 scenario, and 21.9% and 44.6% in 2040s and 2080s respectively under RCP4.5 scenario. Comparing the results to previous studies, minimum and maximum differences between runoff projections over different studies were 10.3% and 53.2%, even though runoff was projected by the same rainfall-runoff model. SWAT model has 27 parameters and physically based complex structure, so it tends to make different results by the model users' setting. In the future, it is necessary to reduce the cause of difference to generate standard runoff scenarios.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.187-194
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• 2019

Intake ratio from river constitutes about 31% (8/26) that beings to "water stress country" as "Medium ~ High" with China, India, Italy, South Africa, etc. Therefore, the present study on a dam that is the most effective and direct for securing water resources has been performed. First of all, climate change scenarios were investigated and analyzed. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 with 12.5 km grid resolution presented in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) were applied to study watershed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and HEC-ResSim models that carried out co-operation. Based on the results of dam simulation, the reduction effects of floods and droughts were quantitatively presented. The procedures of dam projects of the USA, Japan and Korea were investigated. As a result, there are no estimating quantitative criteria, calculating methods or formulas. In the present study, therefore, indexes for selecting suitable dam site through literature investigation and analyzing dam watersheds were determined, Expert questionnaire for various indexes were performed. Based on the above mentioned investigation and expert questionnaire, a methodology assigning weight using AHP method were proposed. The function of suitable dam (FSDS) site was calibrated and verified for four medium-sized watersheds. Finally, automated model for suitable dam site was developed using FSDS and 'Model builder' of GIS tool.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.43-43
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• 2020

보령댐은 충남 서부지역 8개 시·군에 생활용수와 공업용수를 공급하고 있는 중요한 수원으로 최근 우리나라에서 발생한 연속적인 가뭄으로 2015년에는 저수율이 7.5 %까지 감소하여 제한급수가 시행되었다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄으로 인한 물 공급 부족에 취약함을 보인 보령댐 유역(297.4 ㎢)을 대상으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모델과 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오를 활용하여 극한 기후변화 사상이 반영된 보령댐의 내한능력을 평가하였다. SWAT 모형을 활용하여 보령댐의 물수지를 모의하기 위하여 보령댐의 실측 유출량, 저수량, 방류량으로 보령댐 유입량과 저수량을 보정(2002~2004) 및 검정(2005~2007)하였으며, 실측 저수량을 기반으로 미래 댐 운영을 모의하였다. 검·보정 결과, 댐 유입량과 저수량의 PBIAS(%)는 -0.04, -0.09, NSE(Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency)는 0.52, 0.96, RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)는 1.80 mm/day, 0.67 × 10⁶㎥로 분석되어 신뢰성 있는 모의 결과를 보였다. 보정된 SWAT 모형으로 가뭄 사상이 반영된 기후변화를 모의하기 위하여 APCC의 26개 CMIP5 GCM 시나리오를 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)와 연속 이론(Runs theory)으로 분석하여 6개의 극한 가뭄 시나리오 (RCP 4.5, 8.5 CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A-MR)를 선정하였으며, 선정된 시나리오를 모형에 적용하여 가뭄 사상을 반영한 보령댐의 미래 내한능력을 평가하였다. 내한능력평가 및 분석 기간은 Historical(1980~1999; 1990s), Present(2000~2019; 2010s), 그리고 미래 기간 (2020~2039; 2030s, 2040~2059; 2050s, 2060~2079; 2070s, 2080~2099; 2090s)으로 나누었으며, 취약성(Reliability), 회복성(Resilience), 위험성(Vulnerability), 세 가지 지표로 내한능력 평가를 수행하였다. 평가 결과, 미래 취약성은 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.803까지 감소하였으며, 회복성과 위험성은 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.003, 3,567.6 × 10⁶㎥까지 감소하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.419-431
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• 2021

In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.445-468
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• 2000

Background: Retrograde cerebral perfusion(RCP) is currently used for brain protection during aorta surgery, however, for the safety of it, various data published so far are insufficient. We performed RCP using pig and investiaged various parameters of cerebral metabolism and brain injury after RCP under deep hypothermia. Material and Method: We used two experimental groups: in group I(7 pigs, 20 kg), we performed RCP for 120 minutes and in group II (5 pigs, 20 kg), we did it for 90 minutes. Nasopharyngeal temperature, jugular venous oxygen saturation, electroencephalogram were continuously monitored, and we checked the parameters of cerebral metabolism, histological changes and serum levels of neuron-specific enolose(NSE) and lactic dehydrogenase(LDH). Central venous pressure during RCP was mainained in the range of 25 to 30 mmHg. Result: Perfusion flow rates(ml/min) during RCP were 130$\pm$57.7(30 minutes), 108.6$\pm$55.2(60 minutes), 107.1$\pm$58.8(90 minutes), 98.6$\pm$58.7(120 minutes) in group I and 72$\pm$11.0(30 minutes), 72$\pm$11.0(60 minutes), 74$\pm$11.4(90 minutes) in group II. The ratios of drain flow to perfusion flow were 0.18(30 minutes), 0.19(60 minutes), 0.17(90 minutes), 0.16(120 minutes) in group I and 0.21, 0.20, 0.17 in group II. Oxygen consumptions(ml/min) during RCP were 1.80$\pm$1.37(30 minutes), 1.72$\pm$1.23(60 minutes), 1.38$\pm$0.82(90 minutes), 1.18$\pm$0.67(120 minutes) in group I and 1.56$\pm$0.28(30 minutes), 1.25$\pm$0.28(60 minutes), 1.13$\pm$0.26(90 minutes). We could observe an decreasing tendency of oxygen consumption after 90 minutes of RCP in group I. Cerebrovascular resistance(dynes.sec.cm-5) during RCP in group I incrased from 71370.9$\pm$369145.5 to 83920.9$\pm$49949.0 after the time frame of 90 minutes(p<0.05). Lactate(mg/min) appeared after 30 minutes of RCP and the levels were 0.15$\pm$0.07(30 minutes), 0.18$\pm$0.10(60 minutes), 0.19$\pm$0.19(90 minutes), 0.18$\pm$0.10(120 minutes) in group I and 0.13$\pm$0.09(30 minutes), 0.19$\pm$0.03(60 minutes), 0.29$\pm$0.11(90 minutes) in group II. Glucose utilization, exudation of carbon dioxide, differences of cerebral tissue acidosis between perfusion blood and drain blood were maintained constantly during RCP. Oxygen saturation levels(%) in drain blood during RCP were 22.9$\pm$4.4(30 minutes), 19.2$\pm$4.5(60 minutes), 17.7$\pm$2.8(90 minutes), 14.9$\pm$2.8(120 minutes) in group I and 21.3$\pm$8.6(30 minutes), 20.8$\pm$17.6(60 minutes), 21.1$\pm$12.1(90 minutes) in group II. There were no significant changes in cerebral metabolic parameters between two groups. Differences in serum levels of NSE and LDH between perfusion blood and drain blood during RCP showed no statistical significance. Serum levels of NSE and LDH after resuming of cardipulmonary bypass decreased to the level before RCP. Brain water contents were 0.73$\pm$0.03 in group I and 0.69$\pm$0.06 in group II and were higher than those of the controls(p<0.05). The light microscopic findings of cerebral neocortex, basal ganglia, hippocampus(CA1 region) and cerebellum showed no evidence of cerebral injury in two groups and there were no different electron microscopy in both groups(neocortex, basal ganglia and hippocampus), but they were thought to be reversible findings. Conclusion: Although we did not proceed this study after survival of pigs, we could perform the RCP successfully for 120 minutes with minimal cerebral metabolism and no evidence of irreversible brain damage. The results of NSE and LDH during and after RCP should be reevaluated with survival data.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.549-561
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• 2017

Recently IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change, 2007) pointed out that global warming is a certain ongoing process on the earth, due to which water resources management is becoming one of the most difficult tasks with the frequent occurrences of extreme floods and droughts. In this study we made runoff predictions for several control points in the Geum River by using the watershed runoff model, SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation Model), with daily RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 100 year from 1st Jan 2006 to 31st Dec 2100 at the resolution of 1 km given by Climate Change Information Center. As a result of, the Geum River Basin is predicted to be a constant flow increases, and it showed a variation in the water circulation system. Thus, it was found that the different seasonality occurred.