• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.563-582
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• 2021

This paper deals with developing a general class of accelerated sequential procedures and obtaining the associated second-order approximations for the expected sample size and 'regret' (difference between the risks of the proposed accelerated sequential procedure and the optimum fixed sample size procedure) function. We establish that the estimation problems based on various lifetime distributions can be tackled with the help of the proposed class of accelerated sequential procedures. Extensive simulation analysis is presented in support of the accuracy of our proposed methodology using the Pareto distribution and a real data set on carbon fibers is also analyzed to demonstrate the practical utility. We also provide the brief details of some other inferential problems which can be seen as the applications of the proposed class of accelerated sequential procedures.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.249-250
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• 2023

The vulnerability factor analysis and risk quantification model for aging buildings presented in this study can be utilized by governmental agencies such as the Facility Safety Foundation, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and various local governments. Policymakers can use this to supplement inadequacies in existing checklists, and it is expected that they can proactively prevent risks by evaluating dangers based on specific aging characteristics of buildings.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.293-310
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to present the most effective smoke exhaust mode by comparing the quantitatively evaluated risks according to the smoke exhaust mode when a train fire occurs in a subway platform. Therefore, applying the typical subway platform as a model, train fire scenarios are developed with the evacuation start time and location of the fire train for each exhaust mode. The fire accident rates (F) are calculated and the number of fatalities (N) was quantitatively estimated by fire analysis and evacuation analysis for each scenario. In addition, the F/N curve compared with the social risk assessment criteria and the following conclusions were obtained. In the event of a train fire at the subway station platform, the evacuation must start up within 600 s in maximum to ensure the evacuees' safety. To secure evacuation safety, it is advantageous to operate the HVAC system of the platform in the air-supply mode at station without TVF. Comparing the F/N curve for each exhaust mode with the social risk criteria, it turned out that the risk significantly exceeds the social risk criteria in case of no mechanical ventilation. As a result, this paper shows that the ventilation mode in which TVF are exhausted and HVAC system is operated in the pressurized mode are the most effective smoke exhaust mode for ensuring evacuation safety.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.287-297
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• 2022

The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption. One hundred fifty-six oyster samples were collected to examine the norovirus prevalence. The oyster samples were inoculated with murine norovirus and stored at 4℃-25℃. A plaque assay determined norovirus titers. The norovirus titers were fitted with the Baranyi model to calculate shoulder period (h) and death rate (Log PFU/g/h). These kinetic parameters were fitted to a polynomial model as a function of temperature. Distribution temperature and time were surveyed, and consumption data were surveyed. A dose-response model was also searched through literature. The simulation model was prepared with these data in @RISK to estimate the probability of norovirus foodborne. One sample of 156 samples was norovirus positive. Thus, the initial contamination level was estimated by the Beta distribution (2, 156), and the level was -5.3 Log PFU/g. The developed predictive models showed that the norovirus titers decreased in oysters under the storage conditions simulated with the Uniform distribution (0.325, 1.643) for time and the Pert distribution (10, 18, 25) for temperature. Consumption ratio of raw oyster was 0.98%, and average consumption amount was 1.82 g, calculated by the Pert distribution [Pert {1.8200, 1.8200, 335.30, Truncate (0, 236.8)}]. ₁F₁ hypergeometric dose-response model [1 - (1 + 2.55 × 10^-3 × dose)^-0.086] was appropriate to evaluate dose-response. The simulation showed that the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption was 5.90 × 10^-10 per person per day. The annual socioeconomic cost of consuming raw oysters contaminated with norovirus was not very high.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.22-28
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• 2020

In this study, quantitative risk assessment was carried out for city gas high-pressure pipelines crossing through urban rivers. The risk assessment was performed based on actual city gas properties, traffic volume and population and weather data in the worst case scenario conditions. The results confirmed that the social and individual risks were located in conditionally acceptable areas. This can be judged to be safer considering that the risk mitigation effect of protecting the pipes or installing them in the protective structure at the time of the construction of the river buried pipe is not reflected in the result of the risk assessment. Also, SAFETI v8.22 was used to analyze the effects of wind speed and pasquil stability on the accident damage and dispersion distances caused by radiation. As a result of the risk assessment, the safety of the pipelines has been secured to date, but suggests ways to improve safety by preventing unexpected accidents including river bed changes through periodic inspections and monitoring.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.13-21
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• 2019

Leakage accidents in businesses dealing with hazardous chemicals can have a great impact on the workers inside the workplace, as well as residents outside the workplace. In fact, there were cases where hazardous chemicals leaked from many businesses. As a result, the Chemicals Control Act(CCA) was enacted in 2015, the Ministry of Environment introduced an Off-site Risk Assessment(ORA). The purpose of the ORA is to secure safety from the installation of the design of the workplace facilities so that chemical accidents of hazardous chemical handling facilities do not cause human or physical damage outside the workplace. In general, the ORA qualitatively determines where a protected facility is within the scope of the accident scenario. However, elderly who belong to the sensitive group is more sensitive than the general group under the same chemical accident effect, and the extent of the damage is serious. According to data from the Korea National Statistic Office, the number of elderly people is expected to increase steadily. Therefore, a quantitative risk analysis considering the elderly is necessary as a result of a chemical accident. In this study, accident scenarios for 14 locations were set up to perform emergency evacuation due to toxic gas leakage of Cl₂(Chlorine) and HF(Hydrogen Fluoride), and the effects of exposure were analyzed based on the evacuation velocity difference of age 20s and 60s. The ALOHA(Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) program was used to calculate the concentration for assessing the effects. The time of exposure to toxic gas was calculated based on the time it took for the evacuation to run from the start point to the desired point and a methodology was devised that could be applied to the risk calculation. As a result of the study, the relative risk of the elderly, the sensitive group, needs to be determined.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.249-273
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• 2004

Finding an optimal solution in MADN[(Multi-Attribute Decision-Making) problems is difficult, when the number of alternatives, or that of attributes is relatively large Most of the existing mathematical approaches arrive at a final solution on the basis of many unrealistic assumptions, without reflecting the decision-maker's preference structure exactly. In this paper we suggest a model that helps us find a group consensus without assessing these parameters in specific cardinal values. Therefore, This research provides a comprehensive Decision Making of the theory and methods applicable to the analysis of decisions that involve risk and multiple criteria attributes. after, The emphasis of the procedure will be on developments from the fields of decisions analysis and utility theory of Taguchi Method. This theoretical development will be illustrated through the discussion of several real-world application and a case study. When the multiple number of decision makers are involved in the decision making procedure, the problem of uncertainties invariably occurs, because of the different views between them. In this paper, New decision making model using Taguchi Method is applied to effectively model the multi-attribute-decision making(MADM) procedure in the uncertainties dominated two area(quantitative and qualitative factors), Quantitative factors evaluation is used Loss Function of Taguchi, qualitative factors evaluation is used 50 ratio by each specialist. thus it can be used for aiding of preferable alternative. as a result, We will be proved efficiency about New decision making model of applied Taguchi Method with Analytical presentation of all the expecting outcomes when a specific strategy or an alternative plan is selected under expecting future environment.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.89-95
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• 2016

Keeping the gas pipelines in the common utility tunnel is useful because it has a lower risk of corrosion than conventional burial, and can prevent from excavating construction. But, explosions in common utility tunnels can cause greater damage from the blast overpressure compared to outdoor explosions, due to nature of the confined environment. Despite this fact, however, research on common utility tunnels has been limited to fire hazard and little has been studied on the dangers of explosions. This study developed scenarios of methane gas explosion caused by gas leak from gas piping within the common utility tunnel followed by unknown ignition; the study then calculated the extent of the impact of the explosion on the facilities above, and suggested the needs for designing additional safety measures. Two scenarios were selected per operating condition of safety devices and the consequence analysis was carried out with FLACS, one of the CFD tools for explosion simulation. The overpressures for all scenarios are substantial enough to completely destroy most of the buildings. In addition, we have provided additional measures to secure safety especially reducing incident frequency.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.287-298
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• 2007

Recently, as the construction of new railway and the relocation of existing line increase, tunnel structures get longer. The railway fire accidents in long tunnel bring large damages of human life and disaster. The interest on safety in long tunnel has been growing and the safety standard for long tunnels is tightening. For that reason, at the planning stage of a long tunnel, the optimum design of safety facility for minimizing the risks and satisfying the safety standard is required. For the reasonable design of a long railway tunnel considering high safety, qualitative estimation for tunnel safely is required. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) technique is applied to design of a long railway tunnel for assuring the safety function and estimating the risk of safety. The case study for safety design was carried out to verify the QRA technique for two railway tunnels.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.61 no.5
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• pp.582-591
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• 2018

Objective : To evaluate the magnetic resonance (MR) imaging features that have a statistically significant association with the need for a tracheostomy in patients with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) during the acute stage of injury. Methods : This study retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of 130 patients with cervical SCI. We analyzed the factors believed to increase the risk of requiring a tracheostomy, including the severity of SCI, the level of injury as determined by radiological assessment, three quantitative MR imaging parameters, and eleven qualitative MR imaging parameters. Results : Significant differences between the non-tracheostomy and tracheostomy groups were determined by the following five factors on multivariate analysis : complete SCI (p=0.007), the radiological level of C5 and above (p=0.038), maximum canal compromise (MCC) (p=0.010), lesion length (p=0.022), and osteophyte formation (p=0.015). For the MCC, the cut-off value was 46%, and the risk of requiring a tracheostomy was three times higher at an interval between 50-60% and ten times higher between 60-70%. For lesion length, the cut-off value was 20 mm, and the risk of requiring a tracheostomy was two times higher at an interval between 20-30 mm and fourteen times higher between 40-50 mm. Conclusion : The American Spinal Injury Association grade A, a radiological injury level of C5 and above, an MCC ${\geq}50%$, a lesion length ${\geq}20mm$, and osteophyte formation at the level of injury were considered to be predictive values for requiring tracheostomy intervention in patients with cervical SCI.