• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk

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Risk Assessment Method for Guaranteeing Safety in the Train Control System (열차제어시스템 안전성 확보를 위한 리스크 평가 방법 분석)

  • Jo, Hyun-Jeong;Hwang, Jong-Gyu;Yoon, Yong-Ki
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2006.11b
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    • pp.870-877
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    • 2006
  • Recently, failures of equipments are linked directly to extensive damages of human lives or financial losses from the increasing uses of train control equipments utilizing computers. Then safety activities have to progress for guaranteeing safety during the system life-cycle. In this paper, we examine the methods for risk analysis and assessment of safety activities and propose optimized one method for risk assessment. There are original risk assessment methods; risk graph and risk matrix method under the qualitative analysis, IRF(Individual Risk Formula) calculations and statistical calculations method under the quantitative analysis. Best-Practice(BP) risk analysis method is proposed for combining advantages of the qualitative and the quantitative analysis. In the comparison of risk graph and risk matrix method for safety estimation, BP method has no applications published up to now, but we can expect that this method will be utilized widely for the risk assessment due to various strong points.

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Methodologic Issues in Using Epidemiologic Studies for Quantitative Risk Assessment

  • Stayner Leslie
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02a
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    • pp.417-425
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    • 1994
  • Although animal studies have been used most often for quantitative risk assessment, it is generally recognized that well-conducted epidemiologic studies would provide the best basis for estimating human risk. However, there are several features related to the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies that frequently limit their usefulness for quantitating risks. The lack of accurate information on exposure in epidemiologic studies is perhaps the most frequently cited limitation of these studies for risk assessment. However. other features of epidemiologic study design, such as statistical power, length of follow-up, confounding, and effect modification, may also limit the inferences that can be drawn from these studies. Furthermore, even when the aforementioned limitations are overcome, substantial uncertainty exists concerning the choice of an appropriate statistical (or biologic) model for extrapolation beyond the range of exposures observed in a particular study. This paper focuses on presenting a review and discussion of the methodologic issues involved in using epidemiologic studies for risk assessment. This review concentrates on the use of retrospective, cohort, mortality studies of occupational groups for assessing cancer risk because this is the most common application of epidemiologic data for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Epidemiologic data should not be viewed as a panacea for the problems inherent in using animal bioassay data for QRA. Rather, information that can be derived from epidemiologic and toxicologic studies complement one another, and both data sources need to be used to provide the best characterization of human risk.

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A Study on the Analysis of Risk Factors for Hydrogen Fuel Stations Based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (정량적 위험성평가 기반 수소충전소 위험요소 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Jae Yong;Lee, Jieun;Song, Hyoungwoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.70-76
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we suggested the direction to lower the risk by analyzing the risk factors for each process for the hydrogen refueling station to be installed in Chungju. HyRAM, one of the quantitative risk assessment tools for hydrogen gas, was used to analyze the hazards. By evaluating the frequency of accidents and consequences for each process, the most dangerous processes and accident factors were presented, and the risk mitigation factors were synthesized. Hydrogen refueling stations are currently in the global infrastructure expansion period, and the lack of accident data could be an alternative to this risk assessment and is expected to be used as a reference for the future expansion of hydrogen refueling stations.

A Study on Reliability Analysis and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Liquefied Petroleum Gas Station (LPG 충전시설에 대한 신뢰도 분석과 정량적 위험성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim In-Won;Jin Sang-Hwa;Kim Tea-Woo;Kim In-Tae;Yeo Yeong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.5 no.4 s.16
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2001
  • For a Liquified Petroleum Gas(LPG) station, the reliability analysis, such as Fussell-Vesely importance, risk decrease factor and risk increase factor, was carried out and the risk ranks of events were determined. In order to confirm the degree of the risks identified in the reliability analysis, the quantitative risk analysis was done for the equipments which had the large values of risk ranks. As a result of the importance analysis for the LPG station, the external event was identified as the most riskful event. The defect of construction structure and the pipe corrosion were riskful as well. The result of quantitative risk analysis showed that the length of 46.3 meters were estimated to damage the process equipments by the thermal flux from the catastrophic rupture of storage tank in Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion.

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A study on the risk assessment based on the semi-quantitative methodology (준 정량적 방법의 위험성 평가에 대한 연구)

  • Jung, Da-Woon;Oh, Sang-Min;Yoo, Deung-Ryeol;Seo, Jung-Wook;Kim, Du-Ill
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.1425-1432
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    • 2011
  • The various risk assessment methodologies have been introduced in the railway industries. The risk assessment suggested by CENELEC are described with two ways; quantitative and qualitative methods. However, in the industry application level, the quantitative method is hard to apply for a project because of somehow complicated or few statistical figures which was driven from the on-site and the qualitative method is too subject to have the confidence of its results fully. In this paper, the state-of-the-art methods which were suggested in Europe recently are introduced and compared to existing quantitative and qualitative methods. Furthermore, the application measures of railway projects are investigated.

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Development of Loss Model Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Construction Project: Focusing on Bridge Construction Project (인프라건설 프로젝트 리스크 분석에 따른 손실 정량화 모델 개발 연구: 교량프로젝트를 중심으로)

  • Oh, Gyu-Ho;Ahn, Sungjin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.04a
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    • pp.208-209
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to analyze the risk factors caused by object damage and third-party damage loss in actual bridge construction based on past insurance premium payment data from major domestic insurers for bridge construction projects, and develop a quantitative loss prediction model. For the development of quantitative bridge construction loss model, the dependent variable was selected as the loss ratio, and the independent variable adopted 1) Technical factors: superstructure type, foundation type, construction method, and bridge length 2) Natural hazards: flood anf Typhoon, 3) Project information: total construction duration, total cost and ranking. Among the selected independent variables, superstructure type, construction method, and project period were shown to affect the ratio of bridge construction losses, while superstructure, foundation, flood and ranking were shown to affect the ratio of the third-party losses.

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A Study on the Quantitative Risk Analysis Using CFD for the Fuel Gas Supply System of Gas Fueled Ship (가스추진선박의 가스연료공급시스템에 대한 CFD를 이용한 정량적 위험도 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kipyoung;Kim, Daeheon;Lee, Youngho
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2017
  • LNG has significant advantages in regard to environmental aspects comparing with conventional fuel oil. In fact, it is estimated that NOx and SOx emission can be reduced by about 90% and 100%, respectively in case of using LNG as a fuel. LNG-fuelled ship has been considered to be the best option both from an environmental and an economic point of view. Along with these trends, some major shipyards and Classification Societies have started to carry out the risk-based system design for LNG-fuelled ship such as passenger ship, platform supply vessel and large container vessel etc. However, new conceptual gas fuelled ship has high risk level compared with vessel using traditional crude oil especially in view of gas explosion accident. Therefore safety area where installed fuel gas supply system is required risk based system design with special considerations. On this paper, the entire process necessary for the quantitative risk analysis was explained to meet the satisfactory safety level of gas fuelled ship.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Clostridium perfringens on Ham and Sausage Products in Korea (햄 및 소시지류에서의 Clostridium perfringens에 대한 정량적 미생물 위해평가)

  • Ko, Eun-Kyung;Moon, Jin-San;Wee, Sung-Hwan;Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.118-124
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Clostridium perfringens with consumption on ham and sausage products in Korea, according to Codex guidelines. Frame-work model as product-retail-consumption pathway composed with initial contamination level, the time and temperature in distributions, and consumption data sets for ham and sausage products and also used the published predictive growth and dose-response models for Cl. perfringens. The simulation model and formulas with Microsoft@ Excel spreadsheet program using these data sets was developed and simulated with @RISK. The probability of foodborne disease by Cl. perfringens with consumption of the ham and sausage products per person per day was estimated as $3.97{\times}10^{-11}{\pm}1.80{\times}10^{-9}$. There were also noted that limitations in this study and suggestion for development of QMRA in the future in Korea.

- Development of a Safety Assessment System Model in the Manufacturing Industry - (제조업에 대한 안전성평가시스템 모델 구축에 관한 연구)

  • 성호경
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2003
  • While a number of Korean companies have undergone ceaseless restructuring to survive today's rapidly changing global economy, the brick and mortar industry has been exerting their efforts to enhance the productivity through the development of new products, quality improvement, cost reduction measures. At present, various risk-evaluation measures have been taken in the fields at the discretion of an enterpriser, though, the effective methods enabling quantitative analysis are insufficient. Accordingly, this study is intended to contribute to the synthetic safety manage -ment in the factory fields and to suggest the quantitative -risk-analysis system by introducing such safety-estimation steps as assortment of processes, pre-assessment of risk factors, decision of risks, counter measures against studied risks, establishment of remedies.

A Study on Semi Quantitative Risk Analysis for Air Separation Unit using a GRA(Generic Risk Analysis) Method (GRA(Generic Risk Analysis) 기법을 이용한 공기분리시설에 대한 준 정량적 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jung-Soo;Byun, Hun-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.56-66
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    • 2013
  • The gas production plants supply the inert gas to production plants for maintaining safe operation and also supply combustible, flammable, explosive and toxic gases as functions of basic materials needed for producing chemical goods. In addition, gas plants need to be safe and reliable operation because they are operated under high temperature, high pressure, cryogenic and catalytic reactions. As these plants have a complex process in operation, there has been a risk that major industrial accidents such as a fire, explosion and toxic gas released, also risks of asphyxiations by inert gases and burns caused by high temperature and cryogenic substances. This study is to carry out the semi quantitative risk assesment method which is the generic risk analysis (GRA). This method is applied to air separation unit(ASU) to identify its initial risk, safety barriers, residual risk and elements important for safety(EIS). The result of this study, suggested the management tools and procedures of implementation for EIS management.