• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quality of Predictions

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On the Study of Developement for Urban Meteorological Service Technology (도시기상서비스 기술 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Jean;Kim, Chang-Mo;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2011
  • Urbanization of the world's population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,000 people, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid - 2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth's atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, etc.) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, predicted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects. A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very--short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of continuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned.

Inventory Investment and Business Cycle: Asymmetric Dynamics of Inventory Investment over the Business Cycle Phases (재고투자와 경기변동: 재고투자 동학의 경기국면별 비대칭성)

  • Seo, Byeongseon;Jang, Keunho
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.1-36
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    • 2018
  • When it comes to explaining the relationship between inventory investment and business fluctuations, the production smoothing theory and the stock-out avoidance theory take contradictory stances. Decision-making related to inventory investments of corporations is thought to be influenced by both motives, but the relative sizes or directions of their respective influences can differ depending upon the phase of the business cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper differs from existing studies in that it theoretically tests the relative significances of the production smoothing and stock-out avoidance motives in the inventory investment dynamics, while placing its analytical focus on determining the existence and patterns of the asymmetric dynamics of inventory investment over the business cycle phases. To this end this paper sets up a non-linear model that is expanded from the existing linear inventory investment model, and checks whether its predictive power is better than that of the existing model. The results of analysis confirm the nature of the asymmetric dynamics of inventory investment over the business cycle phases. A stock-out avoidance motive appears but there is no significant production smoothing motive in boom times. In downturns, in contrast, the stock-out avoidance motive is insignificant, but a quality of asymmetric dynamics in which changes in inventory cause the deepening of recessions, due to the non-convexity of production costs proposed by Ramey (1991), is detected. This paper confirms that a model considering the asymmetric dynamics of inventory investment can have better predictive power than one that does not consider it, through within-sample and out-of-sample predictions and various predictive power tests. These research results are expected to be useful for economic forecasting, through their enhancement of the understandings of the inventory investment dynamics and of the nature of its business cycle destabilization.

Applying deep learning based super-resolution technique for high-resolution urban flood analysis (고해상도 도시 침수 해석을 위한 딥러닝 기반 초해상화 기술 적용)

  • Choi, Hyeonjin;Lee, Songhee;Woo, Hyuna;Kim, Minyoung;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.10
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    • pp.641-653
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    • 2023
  • As climate change and urbanization are causing unprecedented natural disasters in urban areas, it is crucial to have urban flood predictions with high fidelity and accuracy. However, conventional physically- and deep learning-based urban flood modeling methods have limitations that require a lot of computer resources or data for high-resolution flooding analysis. In this study, we propose and implement a method for improving the spatial resolution of urban flood analysis using a deep learning based super-resolution technique. The proposed approach converts low-resolution flood maps by physically based modeling into the high-resolution using a super-resolution deep learning model trained by high-resolution modeling data. When applied to two cases of retrospective flood analysis at part of City of Portland, Oregon, U.S., the results of the 4-m resolution physical simulation were successfully converted into 1-m resolution flood maps through super-resolution. High structural similarity between the super-solution image and the high-resolution original was found. The results show promising image quality loss within an acceptable limit of 22.80 dB (PSNR) and 0.73 (SSIM). The proposed super-resolution method can provide efficient model training with a limited number of flood scenarios, significantly reducing data acquisition efforts and computational costs.

Design and Implementation of Produce Farming Field-Oriented Smart Pest Information Retrieval System based on Mobile for u-Farm (u-Farm을 위한 모바일 기반의 농작물 재배 현장 중심형 스마트 병해충 정보검색 시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Kang, Ju-Hee;Jung, Se-Hoon;Nor, Sun-Sik;So, Won-Ho;Sim, Chun-Bo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.1145-1156
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    • 2015
  • There is a shortage of mobile application systems readily applicable to the field of crop cultivation in relation to diseases and insect pests directly connected to the quality of crops. Most of system have been devoted to diseases and insect pests that would offer full predictions and basic information about diseases and insect pests currently. But for lack of the instant diagnostic functions seriously and the field of crop cultivation, we design and implement a crop cultivation field-oriented smart diseases and insect pests information retrieval system based on mobile for u-Farm. The proposed system had such advantages as providing information about diseases and insect pests in the field of crop cultivation and allowing the users to check the information with their smart-phones real-time based on the Lucene, a search library useful for the specialized analysis of images, and JSON data structure. And it was designed based on object-oriented modeling to increase its expandability and reusability. It was capable of search based on such image characteristic information as colors as well as the meta-information of crops and meta-information-based texts. The system was full of great merits including the implementation of u-Farm, the real-time check, and management of crop yields and diseases and insect pests by both the farmers and cultivation field managers.

Performance and Availability of Seawater Distiller with Heat Pipe Utilizing Low-Grade Waste Heat (저급 폐열 이용 히트파이프 해수담수기의 성능과 유용성)

  • Park, Chang-Dae;Chung, Kyung-Yul;Tanaka, Hiroshi
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.81-86
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    • 2013
  • Exhaust gas from a small portable electric generator is simply exhausted to the surroundings because the capacity and quality of the waste heat of this gas is generally not sufficient to recover and utilize. We have proposed a seawater distiller utilizing the thermal energy of waste gas from an electric generator. The distiller recovers heat from the waste gas by means of a heat pipe and uses it effectively through a multiple-effect diffusion-type structure. We constructed an experimental apparatus with a vertical single-effect still having a 4-stroke 50 cc generator engine and found that the experimental results for distillate productivity show good agreement with the theoretical predictions. The results show that the distiller can recover 52 W of waste heat from the gas at $171^{\circ}C$, and ~85% of the recovered heat can be utilized for distillation to produce 70 g/h of fresh water. This is equivalent to a productivity of 500 g/h in the case of a 10-effect still. Therefore, the proposed distiller should be useful in remote areas where electricity and water grids are inadequate.

Application of Inference Models for Estimating Parameters of a Catchment Modelling System (추론모델을 통한 강우-유출모형 매개변수의 간접추정법 적용)

  • Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.587-596
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    • 2003
  • Application of a catchment modelling system requires recorded information to ascertain the reliability and robustness of the predicted flow conditions. Where this recorded information is not available, the necessary information for reliable and robust predictions must be obtained from other available information sources. The alternative approach presented in this paper used inference models for getting this necessary information that is required to calibrate and validate the catchment modelling system for both an ungauged and a gauged catchments. In this study, inference models were developed for determination of control parameters of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), mainly based on landuse component of the catchment, which is a major factor to impact on quantity and quality of catchment runoff. Results from the study show that the new approach for determination of the spatially variable control parameters produced more accurate estimates than a traditional approach. Also, the number of control parameters estimated can be reduced significantly as the proposed method only requires determination of control parameters associated with each land use of the catchment while a traditional approach needs to assign a number of control parameters for a number of subcatchment.

Influence of Students' Perceptions of Motivational Climate Emphasized by Science Teachers and Peers on Achievement Goals (과학 교사와 동료 학생에 의해 강조되는 동기적 학습 환경에 대한 학생들의 인식이 성취 목적에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Kyung-Moon;Park, Hyun-Ju;Noh, Tae-Hee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.364-370
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to examine middle school students' (N= 153) perceptions of motivational climate (teacher learning/teacher comparison/peer learning/peer comparison/peer worry) and their achievement goals (task/performance/performance-avoidance). The influence of perceptions of motivational climate emphasized by science teachers and/or peers on achievement goals was explored by stepwise regression. Although there was no difference in male/female perceptions of motivational climate, there was significant difference in their achievement goals. Regression result indicated that the pursuit of learning by peers made the strongest contribution to students' task goal. On the other hand, promotion via comparison by science teachers or peers had little effect on inducing performance goal. Anxieties about mistakes were found to be the strongest contribution to predictions on students' performance-avoidance goal. The promotion of comparison by science teachers was related to not only performance goal, but also performance-avoidance goal. Lastly educational implications for intervention efforts designed to enhance the quality of student motivational development in science education are discussed.

The Geometrical Imagination of the MCU 'Phase 3' Movie (MCU '페이즈3'영화에 나타난 기하학적 상상력)

  • Kim, Young-Seon;Kim, Tae-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.132-142
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to interpret the MCU's universal worldview from the perspective of geometry and to storytell narrative elements with mathematical imagination. For storytelling, data from the Phase 3 series aired from 2016 to 2019 was used. The Phase 3 series stimulates the imagination of the public with the sense of reality shown in the narrative and images based on geometrical theory and various predictions about future technology. Imagination is the driving force for diverse and original thinking about the unexperienced, and the ability to find order in chaos and create new perceptions of matter. The power of imagination is very necessary not only in artistic activities, but also in the scientific field where logic and rationality are important. Bachelard's imagination aims for art, the primitive realm of human beings, and contains sincerity and passion for the wonders of nature and all things. By exploring the MCU's worldview and superhero narrative through geometrical logic and imagination-driven imagery, you can understand the cosmic messages and laws in the film. From a convergence point of view of art and science, various and original techniques based on mathematics and scientific imagination used in MCU video production will help to improve the quality of video analysis.

Quantification of Soil Properties using Visible-NearInfrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (가시·근적외 분광 스펙트럼을 이용한 토양 이화학성 추정)

  • Choe, Eunyoung;Hong, S. Young;Kim, Yi-Hyun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Zhang, Yong-Seon
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.522-528
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    • 2009
  • This study focused on establishing prediction models using visible-near infrared spectrum to simultaneously detect multiple components of soils and enhancing the performance quality by suitably transformed input spectra and classification of soil spectral types for prediction model input. The continuum-removed spectra showed significant result for all cases in terms of soil properties and classified or bulk predictions. The prediction model using classified soil spectra at an absorption peak area around 500nm and 950nm efficiently indicating soil color showed slightly better performance. Especially, Ca and CEC were well estimated by the classified prediction model at $R^{2}$ > 0.8. For organic carbon, both classified and bulk prediction model had a good performance with $R^{2}$ > 0.8 and RPD> 2. This prediction model may be applied in global soil mapping, soil classification, and remote sensing data analysis.

A Study on the Solutions of Guided Missile Attacks using 3-D RCS Data of Maritime Ship (함정의 3차원 RCS 측정 데이터를 활용한 유도탄 대응 기법 연구)

  • Gwak, Sang-Yell
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.552-557
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    • 2020
  • The Radar Cross Section (RCS) is a virtual region indicating the strength of a wavelength at which a radar signal is reflected and received. As the ship's RCS represents its own stealth performance and survivability, efforts have been made in various areas from design to construction to reduce the RCS. The RCS can be predicted using design drawings and CAD models, but it is necessary to measure the RCS at sea since sea clutter and multipath reflections occur in the sea environment. However, such RCS predictions and measured values provide only a simple relative magnitude to the user, and there has not been much research on this topic. In this paper, a missile countermeasure technique was studied using 3D RCS measurement data in an operating environment. The elevation and azimuth angle of the ship viewed from the missile were estimated using the location information of the missile, and the RCS value was inverted by mapping it to previously measured 3D RCS measurement data. In addition, by using the movement information of the missile, the RCS observed by the missile could be predicted in advance, and this method can be used to propose a response plan based on the maneuvering and chaff system.