• Title/Summary/Keyword: Public Opinion Polling

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The Infrastructure of Public Opinion Research in Japan

  • Kubota, Yuichi
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.42-60
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    • 2013
  • This article introduces the infrastructure of public opinion research in Japan by reviewing the development of polling organizations and the current situation of social surveys. In Japan, the polling infrastructure developed through the direction and encouragement of the U.S. occupation authorities. In the early 1969s, however, survey researchers began to conduct their own original polls in not only domestic but also cross-national contexts. An exploration of recent survey trends reveals that polling organizations tended to conduct more surveys during summer, in the mid-range of sample size (1,000-2,999), based on random sampling (response rates of 40-50%), and through the mail between April 2011 and March 2012. The media was the most active polling sector.

American Attitudes toward Japan and China, Decades of Polls

  • Laken, Faith;Kim, Jibum;Smith, Tom W.
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.52-70
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    • 2014
  • Gathering polling items about China and Japan from 1937 to 2011, we examine how Americans think about these two powerful East Asian countries. Our study investigates American attitudes from two perspectives. First, we analyze the content of polling items asked in the US about China and Japan to track changes in salient issues over a period of over 60 years. Second, by tracking repeated items, we show how American attitudes toward China and Japan have changed over time, both in long-term general favorability, and shorter-term perception of geopolitical, ideological, and economic threat in response to historical events.

The Third- and First-Person Effects of Election Polling News Through Emotions

  • Kim, Hyunjung
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.262-276
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we examine how the third- and first-person perceptions of election polling news are linked to voters' political behaviors through anxiety and pride. The results of two web-based surveys conducted before and after the 2022 local elections in South Korea demonstrate that the third-person perception of election polling news is directly and indirectly linked to support for restrictions on media reports of election poll results through anxiety. The first-person perception of polling news is positively associated with reinforcement of support for the preferred candidate. These results suggest that how voters perceive the effects of polling news may have actual impacts on their political behaviors.

A Public Opinion Polling Application with Robust Verification Based on the Ethereum Bolckchain (견고한 검증을 제공하는 이더리움 블록체인 기반의 여론조사 어플리케이션)

  • Jin, Jae-Hwan;Eom, Hyun-Min;Sun, Ju-Eun;Lee, Myung-Joon
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.895-905
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    • 2018
  • Public opinion polls have a strong influence on modern society as a means of examining the tendency of social groups on specific issues. As the influence of the polls increases, the problem of forgery and falsification of the results becomes an important issue. So, to guarantee the reliability of the results, our society needs novel mechanisms. As one of such mechanisms, the Ethereum blockchain is an environment for developing decentralized applications with the reliable blockchain technology. Ethereum decentralized applications can utilize smart contracts to provide services for users in transparent and reliable ways. In this paper, we propose a polling method that guarantees reliability using the blockchain technology, which is a distributed ledger technique that makes forgery or falsification actually impossible. The proposed method provides a robust verification function on the results of the associated polls for individual voters and verification organizations. Also, we present a distributed opinion polling application running on our private Ethereum blockchain network, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Towards a Dialogic Approach: Crisis Communications and Public Reactions in the World's Most Densely Populated City to Tackle COVID-19

  • Yuncg, Juliana Qi Xuan;Cheong, Angus Weng Hin;Seng, Athena I No;Li, Kim Jing
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.265-296
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    • 2020
  • Macao, a special administrative region of China, has been able to maintain the records of zero deaths and keep confirmed cases under 50 since the outbreak of COVID-19 for more than half a year as of July 2020, despite being the world's most densely populated city. The current paper utilizes the dialogic public relations theory to analyze the situation using both literature review on how the various government actions and strategies during the pandemic were corresponding to the theory, and a quantitative random digital dialing (RDD) telephone survey, with a sample of 502 Macao residents aged 18 or above, to study the public reactions towards the government pandemic prevention actions. Survey results show a high level of public satisfaction towards epidemic prevention performance, as well as some forms of collaborative information redissemination behavior in social media platforms. Literature review and analysis from dialogic theory found that spirit of mutual equality, collaboration with local community, immediacy of presence in crisis time, engagements with stakeholders through maximum media channels and networks, supportiveness to public with both useful information and practical social support like subsidy program, as well as commitment to transparent and genuine communication, are all the dialogic communications strategies that describe what the Macao government has done in the crisis of COVID-19. The dialogic strategies that could be learned from the Macao government may be used as a reference for similar urbanized and densely populated cities in other territories.

"This Unfavorable Poll Result for My Candidate Doesn't Affect Me but Others": Third-Person Perception in Election Poll Coverage

  • Shin-Il Moon;Yunjin Choi;Sungeun Chung
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.274-303
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    • 2023
  • The third-person perception phenomenon can consistently be found in opinion poll news, but it remains unknown what determines the degree of the third-person perception (TPP) about specific election poll news. We investigated how respondents' preferred candidate's status in the poll affects the perceived impact of polling news on both themselves (PMI1) and on others (PMI3) as well as TPP (PMI3 - PMI1). We also examined the effect of subjective political knowledge and the perceived level of political knowledge of others on TPP. An online experiment was conducted in the context of a gubernatorial election in South Korea, in which the leading candidate in the poll and the question order (self-question first vs. other-question first) were manipulated. The results indicated that PMI1 and PMI3 were greater when the respondent's preferred candidate was leading in the poll. TPP did not differ depending on subjective knowledge, but it was greater when the others were non-experts (vs. experts). Lastly, question order was found to be a method factor that affected both PMI1 and PMI3. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Measuring the Third-Person Effects of Public Opinion Polls: Focusing On Online Polls (여론조사보도에 대한 제3자효과 검증: 온라인 여론조사를 주목하며)

  • Kim, Sung-Tae;Willnat, Las;Weaver, David
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.32
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    • pp.49-73
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    • 2006
  • During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

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Paranormal Beliefs: Using Survey Trends from the USA to Suggest a New Area of Research in Asia

  • Kim, Jibum;Wang, Cory;Nunez, Nick;Kim, Sori;Smith, Tom W.;Sahgal, Neha
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.279-306
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    • 2015
  • Americans continue to have beliefs in the paranormal, for example in UFOs, ghosts, haunted houses, and clairvoyance. Yet, to date there has not been a systematic gathering of data on popular beliefs about the paranormal, and the question of whether or not there is a convincing trend in beliefs about the paranormal remains to be explored. Public opinion polling on paranormal beliefs shows that these beliefs have remained stable over time, and in some cases have in fact increased. Beliefs in ghosts (25% in 1990 to 32% in 2005) and haunted houses (29% in 1990, 37% in 2001) have all increased while beliefs in clairvoyance (26% in 1990 and 2005) and astrology as scientific (31% in 2006, 32% in 2014) have remained stable. Belief in UFOs (50%) is highest among all paranormal beliefs. Our findings show that people continue to hold beliefs about the paranormal despite their lack of grounding in science or religion.

Analyzing Effective Poll Prediction Model Using Social Media (SNS) Data Augmentation (소셜 미디어(SNS) 데이터 증강을 활용한 효과적인 여론조사 예측 모델 분석)

  • Hwang, Sunik;Oh, Hayoung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.12
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    • pp.1800-1808
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    • 2022
  • During the election period, many polling agencies survey and distribute the approval ratings for each candidate. In the past, public opinion was expressed through the Internet, mobile SNS, or community, although in the past, people had no choice but to survey the approval rating by relying on opinion polls. Therefore, if the public opinion expressed on the Internet is understood through natural language analysis, it is possible to determine the candidate's approval rate as accurately as the result of the opinion poll. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of inferring the approval rate of candidates during the election period by synthesizing the political comments of users through internet community posting data. In order to analyze the approval rate in the post, I would like to suggest a method for generating the model that has the highest correlation with the actual opinion poll by using the KoBert, KcBert, and KoELECTRA models.

Daily Life Satisfaction in Asia: A Cross-National Survey in Twelve Societies

  • Inoguchi, Takashi;Basanez, Miguel;Kubota, Yuichi;Cho, Sung Kyum;Kheokao, Jantima;Krirkgulthorn, Tassanee;Yingrengreung, Siritorn;Chung, Robert;Cheong, Angus Weng Hin;Sandoval, Gerardo A. Jay;Deshmukh, Yashwant;Shaw, Kanyika;Yu, Ching-Hsin;Zhou, Baohua;Idid, Syed Arabi Bin Syed Abdullah;Gilani, Ijaz Shaffi;Gilani, Bilal I.
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.153-202
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    • 2014
  • Aside from political leaders' popularity rates and the stock exchange index of business firms, ordinary people are highly interested in aspects of daily life, such as housing, income, health, family, food, human relations and work. Cross-national opinion polls on daily-life satisfaction were carried out in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong, Macao, the Philippines, India, Myanmar, Taiwan, China, Malaysia and Pakistan in the fall of 2013 and winter 2014. The percent difference index (PDI) is formulated as the sum of two positive responses (satisfied and somewhat satisfied) minus the sum of two negative responses (dissatisfied and somewhat dissatisfied). Percent difference indices are given according to society and daily-life aspects. For our analysis to go beneath national average and to go beyond national borders, two lines of analysis are carried out. First, the distance between the level of satisfaction of the top and bottom quartiles is given for each society and according to each of the daily-life aspects. Second, the regional sum of satisfaction of the top quartiles and bottom quartiles are shown crossed by daily-life aspects. In this article we confine ourselves to preliminary comparative description and analysis. More solid and deep comparisons will be carried out by local polling leaders of 12 Asian societies in the succeeding issue of the Asian Journal of Public Opinion Research. Nevertheless, two key threads stand out from this preliminary comparisons. First, social relations (family and human relations) stand out as most satisfied aspects of life in most of twelve societies. Second, the need to go beneath national averages and beyond national borders in analyzing cross-national surveys is confirmed. The comparability and validity of cross-national surveys with varying sampling method and survey mode are briefly discussed toward the end of the article.