• Title/Summary/Keyword: Propagation Prediction Model

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Study on Establishing Algal Bloom Forecasting Models Using the Artificial Neural Network (신경망 모형을 이용한 단기조류예측모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mi Eun;Shin, Hyun Suk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.7
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    • pp.697-706
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    • 2013
  • In recent, Korea has faced on water quality management problems in reservoir and river because of increasing water temperature and rainfall frequency caused by climate change. This study is effectively to manage water quality for establishment of algal bloom forecasting models with artificial neural network. Daecheong reservoir located in Geum river has suitable environment for algal bloom because it has lots of contaminants that are flowed by rainfall. By using back propagation algorithm of artificial neural networks (ANNs), a model has been built to forecast the algal bloom over short-term (1, 3, and 7 days). In the model, input factors considered the hydrologic and water quality factors in Daecheong reservoir were analyzed by cross correlation method. Through carrying out the analysis, input factors were selected for algal bloom forecasting model. As a result of this research, the short term algal bloom forecasting models showed minor errors in the prediction of the 1 day and the 3 days. Therefore, the models will be very useful and promising to control the water quality in various rivers.

Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters (태양풍 매개변수를 이용한 Dst 예측)

  • Park, Yoon-Kyung;Ahn, Byung-Ho
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.425-438
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    • 2009
  • We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975) of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q) and the decay time ($\tau$) of the equation, we examine the relationships between $Dst^*$ and $VS_s$, ${\Delta}Dst^*$ and $VS_s$, and ${\Delta}Dst^*$ and $Dst^*$ during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to he solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be $Q(nT/h)\;=\;-3.56VS_s$ for $VS_s$ > 0.5mV/m and Q(nT=h) = 0 for $VB_s\;{\leq}\;0.5mV/m$. The $\tau$ (hour) is estimated as $0.060Dst^*\;+\;16.65$ for $Dst^*$ > -175nT and 6.15 hours for $Dst^*\;{\leq}\;-175nT$. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted $Dst^*$ is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975) and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a). The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms ($Dst^*\;{< \atop \sim}\;-200nT$).

Genetic Trends for Laying Traits in the Brown Tsaiya (Anas platyrhynchos) Selected with Restricted Genetic Selection Index

  • Chen, D.T.;Lee, S.R.;Hu, Y.H.;Huang, C.C.;Cheng, Y.S.;Tai, C.;Poivey, J.P.;Rouvier, R.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.1705-1710
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    • 2003
  • A small body size of Brown Tsaiya laying duck is desirable to reduce maintenance requirements, so the body weight at 40 weeks of age (BW40) has to be maintained at its current level. Egg weight has to be maintained at around 65 g to meet market requirements. Eggshell strength at 40 weeks of age (ES40) must to be increased in order to maintain a low incidence of broken eggs. Thus, number of eggs laid up to 52 weeks of age (EN52) has to be increased without negative correlated response on ES40. A new linear genetic selection index was used: $I_g=a_0{\times}GEW40\;(g)+a_1{\times}GBW40\;(g)+a_2{\times}GES40\;(kg/cm^2)+a_3{\times}GEN52\;(eggs)$ where GEW40, GBW40, GES40 and GEN52 were the multitrait best linear unbiased prediction (MT-BLUP) animal model predictors of the breeding values respectively of egg weight and body weight at 40 weeks of age (EW40, BW40), ES40 and EN52. The coefficients $a_0$, $a_1$, $a_2$ and $a_3$ were calculated with constraints of 0.0 g, 0.0 g and $0.013kg/cm^2$ for expected genetic gains in EW40, BW40 and ES40 respectively and maximum gain in EN52. Since 1997, the drakes and the ducks were selected according to their own indexes, with this new genetic selection index. From G0 to G4, the average per generation predicted genetic responses in female duck were +0.05 g for EW40, +0.92 g for BW40, $+0.035kg/cm^2$ for ES40 and +2.13 eggs for EN52. Which represented respectively 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.67% and 1.0% of the means of the EW40, BW40, ES40 and EN52. For ES40 and EN52, it represented also respectively 16.1% and 21.6% of the additive genetic standard deviation of these traits. Thevse results indicated that selection of laying Brown Tsaiya by a restricted genetic selection index and with MT-BLUP animal model could be an efficient tool for improving the efficiency of egg production, increasing egg shell strength and egg number while holding egg weight and body weight constants.

Numerical Analysis on Cutting Power of Disc Cutter with Joint Distribution Patterns (절리분포 양상에 따른 디스크커터의 절삭력에 관한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Joong;Choi, Sung-O.
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2011
  • The LCM test is one of the most powerful and reliable methods for designing the disc cutter and for predicting the TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) performance. It has an advantage to predict the actual load on disc cutter from the laboratory test on the real-size large rock samples, however, it also has a disadvantage to transport and/or prepare the large rock samples and to need an extra cost for experiment. Moreover it is not easy to execute the test for jointed rock mass, and sometimes the design model estimated from the test can not be applied to the real design of disc cutter. In order to break this critical point, lots of numerical studies have been performed. PFC2D can simulate crack propagation and rock fragmentation effectively, because it is useful in particle flow analysis. Consequently, in this study, the PFC2D has been adopted for numerical analysis on cutting power of disc cutter according to the different angle of joint, the different direction of joint, and the different space of joint with jointed rock mass models. From the numerical analyses, it was concluded that the bigger cutting power of disc cutter was needed for reverse cutting direction to joint rather than for forward direction, and the cutting power of disc cutter was increased with decreasing the dip angle of joint and decreasing the space of joints in reverse cutting direction. The more precise numerical model for disc cutter can be developed from comparison between the numerical results and LCM test results, and the resonable guideline is expected for prediction of TBM performance and disc cutter.

Rolling Horizon Implementation for Real-Time Operation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 교통상황 반영)

  • SHIN, Seong Il;CHOI, Kee Choo;OH, Young Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2002
  • The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.

Analysis of Hydraulic Fracture Geometry by Considering Stress Shadow Effect during Multi-stage Hydraulic Fracturing in Shale Formation (셰일저류층의 다단계 수압파쇄에서 응력그림자 효과를 고려한 균열형태 분석)

  • Yoo, Jeong-min;Park, Hyemin;Wang, Jihoon;Sung, Wonmo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.20-29
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    • 2021
  • During multi-stage fracturing in a low permeable shale formation, stress interference occurs between the stages which is called the "stress shadow effect(SSE)". The effect may alter the fracture propagation direction and induce ununiform geometry. In this study, the stress shadow effect on the hydraulic fracture geometry and the well productivity were investigated by the commercial full-3D fracture model, GOHFER. In a homogeneous reservoir model, a multi-stage fracturing process was performed with or without the SSE. In addition, the fracturing was performed on two shale reservoirs with different geomechanical properties(Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio) to analyze the stress shadow effect. In the simulation results, the stress change caused by the fracture created in the previous stage switched the maximum/minimum horizontal stress and the lower productivity L-direction fracture was more dominating over the T-direction fracture. Since the Marcellus shale is more brittle than more dominating over the T-direction fracture. Since the Marcellus shale is more brittle than the relatively ductile Eagle Ford shale, the fracture width in the former was developed thicker, resulting in the larger fracture volume. And the Marcellus shale's Young's modulus is low, the stress effect is less significant than the Eagle Ford shale in the stage 2. The stress shadow effect strongly depends on not only the spacing between fractures but also the geomechanical properties. Therefore, the stress shadow effect needs to be taken into account for more accurate analysis of the fracture geometry and for more reliable prediction of the well productivity.

Deep Learning-Based Prediction of the Quality of Multiple Concurrent Beams in mmWave Band (밀리미터파 대역 딥러닝 기반 다중빔 전송링크 성능 예측기법)

  • Choi, Jun-Hyeok;Kim, Mun-Suk
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2022
  • IEEE 802.11ay Wi-Fi is the next generation wireless technology and operates in mmWave band. It supports the MU-MIMO (Multiple User Multiple Input Multiple Output) transmission in which an AP (Access Point) can transmit multiple data streams simultaneously to multiple STAs (Stations). To this end, the AP should perform MU-MIMO beamforming training with the STAs. For efficient MU-MIMO beamforming training, it is important for the AP to estimate signal strength measured at each STA at which multiple beams are used simultaneously. Therefore, in the paper, we propose a deep learning-based link quality estimation scheme. Our proposed scheme estimates the signal strength with high accuracy by utilizing a deep learning model pre-trained for a certain indoor or outdoor propagation scenario. Specifically, to estimate the signal strength of the multiple concurrent beams, our scheme uses the signal strengths of the respective single beams, which can be obtained without additional signaling overhead, as the input of the deep learning model. For performance evaluation, we utilized a Q-D (Quasi-Deterministic) Channel Realization open source software and extensive channel measurement campaigns were conducted with NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) to implement the millimeter wave (mmWave) channel. Our simulation results demonstrate that our proposed scheme outperforms comparison schemes in terms of the accuracy of the signal strength estimation.

Influence of Specimen Geometries on the Compressive Strength of Lightweight Aggregate Concrete (경량골재 콘크리트의 압축강도에 대한 시험체 기하학적 특성의 영향)

  • Sim, Jae-Il;Yang, Keun-Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.333-340
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    • 2012
  • The current study prepared 9 laboratorial concrete mixes and 3 ready-mixed concrete batches to examine the size and shape effects in compression failure of lightweight aggregate concrete (LWC). The concrete mixes were classified into three groups: normal-weight, all-lightweight and sand-lightweight concrete groups. For each concrete mix, the aspect ratio of circular or square specimens was 1.0 and 2.0. The lateral dimension of specimens varied between 50 and 150 mm for each laboratorial concrete mix, whereas it ranged from 50 to 400 mm with an incremental variation of 50 mm for each ready-mixed concrete batch. Test observations revealed that the crack propagation and width of the localized failure zone developed in lightweight concrete specimens were considerably different than those of normal-weight concrete (NWC). In LWC specimens, the cracks mainly passed through the coarse aggregate particles and the crack distribution performance was very poor. As a result, a stronger size effect was developed in LWC than in NWC. Especially, this trend was more notable in specimens with aspect ratio of 2.0 than in specimens with that of 1.0. The prediction model derived by Kim et al. overestimated the size effect of LWC when lateral dimension of specimen is above 150 mm. On the other hand, the modification factors specified in ASTM and CEB-FIP provisions, which are used to compensate for the shape effect of specimen on compressive strength, were still conservative in LWC.

Prediction of the Minimum Required Pressure of Soundless Chemical Demolition Agents for Plain Concrete Demolition (무근콘크리트 해체시 무소음화학팽창제의 최소요구팽창압 예측)

  • Kim, Kyeongjin;Cho, Hwangki;Sohn, Dongwoo;Koo, Jaehyun;Lee, Jaeha
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 2018
  • In construction site, conventional methods such as jackhammer or explosive methods(dynamite) have been often used for the demolition of structures. Use of those methods are more carefully treated in environmentally and historically sensitive area. For those reasons, use of Soundless Chemical Demolition Agent(SCDA) is getting the spotlight. The SCDA is a powder which has expansive strength when it is mixed with water. In these Characteristics, SCDA can destroy the concrete or rock as it is poured into boreholes of the concrete or rock structures. However, there is no industrial standard for the use of SCDA effectively yet. In this study, experimental study to measure the expansive pressure was conducted depending on various boundary conditions such as waterproof, length of the steel pipe, submerged of steel pipe. Furthermore, computational analysis using damage plasticity model to predict the minimum required pressure of the SCDA for the concrete demolition depending on spacing between holes(k-factor) and compressive strength of the concrete was conducted. Obtained results indicates that water heat dissipation with submerged steel pipe shows the stable pressure for measuring the SCDA and hole distance(k-factor) is the most important factor for crack initiation of concrete.

Variation of Inflow Density Currents with Different Flood Magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir (홍수 규모별 대청호에 유입하는 하천 밀도류의 특성 변화)

  • Yoon, Sung-Wan;Chung, Se-Woong;Choi, Jung-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.1219-1230
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    • 2008
  • Stream inflows induced by flood runoffs have a higher density than the ambient reservoir water because of a lower water temperature and elevated suspended sediment(SS) concentration. As the propagation of density currents that formed by density difference between inflow and ambient water affects reservoir water quality and ecosystem, an understanding of reservoir density current is essential for an optimization of filed monitoring, analysis and forecast of SS and nutrient transport, and their proper management and control. This study was aimed to quantify the characteristics of inflow density current including plunge depth($d_p$) and distance($X_p$), separation depth($d_s$), interflow thickness($h_i$), arrival time to dam($t_a$), reduction ratio(${\beta}$) of SS contained stream inflow for different flood magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir with a validated two-dimensional(2D) numerical model. 10 different flood scenarios corresponding to inflow densimetric Froude number($Fr_i$) range from 0.920 to 9.205 were set up based on the hydrograph obtained from June 13 to July 3, 2004. A fully developed stratification condition was assumed as an initial water temperature profile. Higher $Fr_i$(inertia-to-buoyancy ratio) resulted in a greater $d_p,\;X_p,\;d_s,\;h_i$, and faster propagation of interflow, while the effect of reservoir geometry on these characteristics was significant. The Hebbert equation that estimates $d_p$ assuming steady-state flow condition with triangular cross section substantially over-estimated the $d_p$ because it does not consider the spatial variation of reservoir geometry and water surface changes during flood events. The ${\beta}$ values between inflow and dam sites were decreased as $Fr_i$ increased, but reversed after $Fr_i$>9.0 because of turbulent mixing effect. The results provides a practical and effective prediction measures for reservoir operators to first capture the behavior of turbidity inflow.