• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.26-31
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• 2015

Success of the construction companies is based on the successful completion of projects within the agreed cost and time limits. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have recently attracted much attention because of their ability to solve the qualitative and quantitative problems faced in the construction industry. For the estimation of cost and duration different ANN models were developed. The database consists of data collected from completed projects. The same data is normalised and used as inputs and targets for developing ANN models. The models are trained, tested and validated using MATLAB R2013a Software. The results obtained are the ANN predicted outputs which are compared with the actual data, from which deviation is calculated. For this purpose, two successfully completed highway road projects are considered. The Nftool (Neural network fitting tool) and Nntool (Neural network/ Data Manager) approaches are used in this study. Using Nftool with trainlm as training function and Nntool with trainbr as the training function, both the Projects A and B have been carried out. Statistical analysis is carried out for the developed models. The application of neural networks when forming a preliminary estimate, would reduce the time and cost of data processing. It helps the contractor to take the decision much easier.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.349-352
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• 2008

Weather condition is the uncontrolled factor to influence the project duration. Determining non-working days due to it incorrectly leads to often change the project duration and increase the total cost as well as causing the dispute among stakeholders. When making decision of non-working days, it is important to consider the expert's experience according to the characteristic of the site and local area. Therefore this paper presented the method to estimate non-working days due to wether condition by using fuzzy numbers reflecting expert's subjective experience.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.702-708
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• 2019

This paper deals with break size estimation of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) using a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network. Previous studies used static approaches, requiring time-integrated parameters and independent firing algorithms. NARX neural network is able to directly deal with time-dependent signals for dynamic estimation of break sizes in real-time. The case studied is a LOCA in the primary system of Bushehr nuclear power plant (NPP). In this study, number of hidden layers, neurons, feedbacks, inputs, and training duration of transients are selected by performing parametric studies to determine the network architecture with minimum error. The developed NARX neural network is trained by error back propagation algorithm with different break sizes, covering 5% -100% of main coolant pipeline area. This database of LOCA scenarios is developed using RELAP5 thermal-hydraulic code. The results are satisfactory and indicate feasibility of implementing NARX neural network for break size estimation in NPPs. It is able to find a general solution for break size estimation problem in real-time, using a limited number of training data sets. This study has been performed in the framework of a research project, aiming to develop an appropriate accident management support tool for Bushehr NPP.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Educational Facilities
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.23-33
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• 2003

It is important to estimate the capability for the facilities and the condition of schools continually and correctly because the structure's life is remained more longer through the effective building control and preservation. In accordance with above of that, it is required to understand the knowledge about all matters at the stage of management for educational facilities and establish the procedure of the facility management consistently. This research suggests the method, which remains consistent and objective and deals with the total functional degree by following ㄴthe way to systemize the management plan of the facility estimation. The functional estimation of the existing facilities will be useful to make an plan for repair, maintain and checking of them as well as be the standard for remodeling and the educational facility duration, including long period project for building mending.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.5 no.6 s.22
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• pp.138-145
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• 2004

The construction duration for any building or facilities such as high school building influence the quality of the building as well as the total cost for them. Since there are no guidelines to estimate construction duration correctly, an employer(or owner) estimate it by their own experience or intuition. Therefore some conflicts related to construction duration happen between contract parties during construction. The purpose of this study is to suggest a predictive model which helps decision makers calculate exact net working days for high school building construction at the early stage of the construction project. To measure net working days for high school construction, 15 data were collected from actual spot in Incheon region. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to obtain the model which calculate construction duration for the substructure, the superstructure and the finishing works. total construction duration could be obtained by adding net working days to non working days which would be based on the meteorological statistics for Incheon region since 1974 to 2003.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.290-297
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• 2019

The estuary is a transition zone where fresh water and salt water meet because the stream is connected to the open sea area. So estuaries have very high biodiversity and form a unique ecosystem. However, before the recognition of the ecological value of the estuaries, various damage and disturbances have been occurred so countermeasures are needed. The river master plan is acting as a disturbance factor. However, the river master plan has the public object such as water disaster defense, river function improvement, and national water resources management. Therefore, it is necessary to study the ways in which the opposite relationship of development and ecosystem protection coexist. In this study, the concept of environmental windows were used to estimate the low impact development duration. We expected that proposed method for low impact development duration estimation can be used as a basis and basic data to protected the ecosystem from development project and disturbance in the future.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.70.4-71
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• 2016

The links between super-massive black hole masses and their host galaxy properties are observed, indicating that black hole growth and host galaxy evolution are closely related. Reverberation mapping, which uses the time delay from the central black hole to broad line regions, is one of the best methods to estimate masses of black holes of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). However, only masses of about 50 black holes have been determined in reverberation mapping studies so far, and most of them are limited to optical luminosities below 10^45 erg/s due to the challenges of long-term time domain observations in both photometry and spectroscopy. In this project, we expand reverberation mapping samples to higher luminosities of > 10^44.5 erg/s at 0.1 < z < 0.35, that have expected time lags of 40 - 250 light days. Photometric (using LOAO 1-m and MDM 1.3-m) and spectroscopic (using MDM 2.4-m and Lick 3-m) monitoring campaigns are being conducted for a 3 year duration and 20 day cadence. Precedent photometric observations in 2015B show some targets with variability and follow-up spectroscopic observations are on-going. In this presentation, we introduce our project, present reverberation mapping simulation results, and preliminary results on photometry. These reverberation mapping masses of relatively high luminous AGNs will provide a strong constraint on black hole mass calibration, e.g., the single-epoch mass estimation.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.61-74
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• 2007

In Common Criteria evaluation scheme, sponsor and evaluator should estimate evaluation cost and duration of IT security system evaluation in contracting the evaluation project. In this paper, We analyzed study result that achieve at 2003 and 2005, and utilized part of study result. And we empirically estimate relative evaluation effort ratios among evaluation assurance levels($EAL1{\sim}EAL7$) in CC v2.3 and CC v3.1. Also, we estimate the ratios from 'developer action elements', adjusted 'content and presentation of evidence elements', and 'evaluator action elements 'for each assurance component. We, especially, use ratio of amount of effort for each 'evaluator action elements', that was obtained from real evaluators in KISA in 2003. Our result will useful for TOE sponsor as well as evaluation project manager who should estimate evaluation cost and duration for a specific EAL and type of TOE, in a new CC v3.1 based evaluation schem.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.396-402
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• 2018

Earned Value Management(EVM) has been used to manage and forecast defense project schedule and cost over the last two decades in the world. However to support the lacking ability of schedule analysis in traditional EVM, earned schedule(ES) has been introduced as a tool to more accurately estimate schedule performance. This paper compares which method EVM or ES, provides more accurate schedule predictors in 32 Korean defense research and development projects. As a result of comparison, the ES method can predict the future schedule more reliably than the EVM method. We also analyze early warning function of schedule performance index considering project duration extension point. Through the analysis results, we confirm that both the EVM and the ES method lack the ability of the early warning in terms of the current schedule management criterion.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.305-305
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• 2022

A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.