• 제목/요약/키워드: Prognostic models

검색결과 89건 처리시간 0.027초

XRCC1 Gene Polymorphism, Clinicopathological Characteristics and Stomach Cancer Survival in Thailand

  • Putthanachote, Nuntiput;Promthet, Supannee;Suwanrungruan, Krittika;Chopjitt, Peechanika;Wiangnon, Surapon;Chen, Li-Sheng;Yen, Ming-Fang;Chen, Tony Hsiu-Hsi
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • 제16권14호
    • /
    • pp.6111-6116
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: Stomach cancer is one of leading causes of death worldwide. In Thailand, the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer are in the top ten for cancers. Effects of DNA repair gene X-ray repair cross complementary protein 1 (XRCC1) polymorphisms and clinicopathological characteristics on survival of stomach cancer in Thailand have not been previously reported. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of XRCC1 gene and clinicopathological characteristics on survival of stomach cancer patients in Thailand. Materials and Methods: Data and blood samples were collected from 101 newly diagnosed stomach cancer cases pathologically confirmed and recruited during 2002 to 2006 and followed-up for vital status until 31 October 2012. Genotype analysis was performed using real-time PCR-HRM. The data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method to yield cumulative survival curve, log-rank test to assess statistical difference of survival and Cox proportional hazard models to estimate adjusted hazard ratio. Results: The total followed-up times were 2,070 person-months, and the mortality rate was 4.3 per 100 person-months. The median survival time after diagnosis was 8.07 months. The cumulative 1-, 3-, 5-years survival rates were 40.4%, 15.2 % and 10.1 % respectively. After adjustment, tumour stage were associated with an increased risk of death (p= 0.036). The XRCC1 Gln339Arg, Arg/Arg homozygote was also associated with increased risk but statistically this was non-significant. Conclusions: In addition to tumour stage, which is an important prognostic factor affecting to the survival of stomach cancer patients, the genetic variant Gln339Arg in XRCC1 may non-significantly contribute to risk of stomach cancer death among Thai people. Larger studies with different populations are need to verify ours findings.

Prognostic Accuracy of the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment for Outcomes Among Patients with Trauma in the Emergency Department: A Comparison with the Modified Early Warning Score, Revised Trauma Score, and Injury Severity Score

  • Kang, Min Woo;Ko, Seo Young;Song, Sung Wook;Kim, Woo Jeong;Kang, Young Joon;Kang, Kyeong Won;Park, Hyun Soo;Park, Chang Bae;Kang, Jeong Ho;Bu, Ji Hwan;Lee, Sung Kgun
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
    • /
    • 제34권1호
    • /
    • pp.3-12
    • /
    • 2021
  • Purpose: To evaluate the severity of trauma, many scoring systems and predictive models have been presented. The quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is a simple scoring system based on vital signs, and we expect it to be easier to apply to trauma patients than other trauma assessment tools. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional study of trauma patients who visited the emergency department of Jeju National University Hospital. We excluded patients under the age of 18 years and unknown outcomes. We calculated the qSOFA, the Modified Early Warning Score (mEWS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), and Injury Severity Score (ISS) based on patients' initial vital signs and assessments performed in the emergency department (ED). The primary outcome was mortality within 14 days of trauma. We analyzed qSOFA scores using multivariate logistic regression analysis and compared the predictive accuracy of these scoring systems using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: In total, 27,764 patients were analyzed. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis of the qSOFA, the adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval (CI) for mortality relative to a qSOFA score of 0 were 27.82 (13.63-56.79) for a qSOFA score of 1, 373.31 (183.47-759.57) for a qSOFA score of 2, and 494.07 (143.75-1698.15) for a qSOFA score of 3. In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for the qSOFA, mEWS, ISS, and RTS in predicting the outcomes, for mortality, the AUROC for the qSOFA (AUROC [95% CI]; 0.912 [0.871-0.952]) was significantly greater than those for the ISS (0.700 [0.608-0.793]) and RTS (0.160 [0.108-0.211]). Conclusions: The qSOFA was useful for predicting the prognosis of trauma patients evaluated in the ED.

심근 경색 유발 심부전 모델에서 강리 추출물의 심장 보호 가능성 (Cardioprotective Potential of Gracilaria Verrucosa Extract in Myocardial Infarction-Induced Heart Failure Model)

  • 장윤재;김혜윰;윤정주;한병혁;유제국;조남근;이호섭;강대길
    • 대한한의학방제학회지
    • /
    • 제31권3호
    • /
    • pp.157-169
    • /
    • 2023
  • Gracilaria Verrucosa (GV), a seaweed used in traditional Korean medicine, was studied for its effects on MI-induced heart failure in rats. MI is caused by a blocked coronary artery, leading to severe cardiac dysfunction. The study used a rat model to assess cardiac changes over time and evaluate the impact of GV on heart failure. Ischemia was induced through LAD ligation surgery, and the extent of ischemic area was measured as a prognostic factor. GV extract administration significantly improved cardiac morphology and reduced cardiac weight compared to the MI group. GV treatment also improved cardiac function, as evidenced by positive effects on chamber dilation during MI-induced heart failure. Parameters such as ejection fraction (EF) and fractional shortening (FS) were measured. The MI group showed decreased EF and FS compared to the sham group, while these parameters improved in the GV group. GV treatment also reduced levels of LDH, CPK, and CK-MB in the serum, indicating reduced myocardial damage. Histological analysis revealed that GV treatment attenuated cardiac hypertrophy and fibrosis, with reduced collagen deposition in the myocardium. Immunohistochemistry analysis showed suppressed expression of TGF-β1 and collagen 1, involved in fibrosis. In conclusion, GV showed potential in improving cardiac function in a rat model of MI-induced heart failure. It alleviated myocardial damage, attenuated cardiac hypertrophy and fibrosis, and suppressed fibrotic markers. Further studies are needed to explore its clinical efficacy and underlying mechanisms in cardiac diseases beyond animal models.

Liver-to-Spleen Volume Ratio Automatically Measured on CT Predicts Decompensation in Patients with B Viral Compensated Cirrhosis

  • Ji Hye Kwon;Seung Soo Lee;Jee Seok Yoon;Heung-Il Suk;Yu Sub Sung;Ho Sung Kim;Chul-min Lee;Kang Mo Kim;So Jung Lee;So Yeon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
    • /
    • 제22권12호
    • /
    • pp.1985-1995
    • /
    • 2021
  • Objective: Although the liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LSVR) based on CT reflects portal hypertension, its prognostic role in cirrhotic patients has not been proven. We evaluated the utility of LSVR, automatically measured from CT images using a deep learning algorithm, as a predictor of hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival in patients with hepatitis B viral (HBV)-compensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods: A deep learning algorithm was used to measure the LSVR in a cohort of 1027 consecutive patients (mean age, 50.5 years; 675 male and 352 female) with HBV-compensated cirrhosis who underwent liver CT (2007-2010). Associations of LSVR with hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards and competing risk analyses, accounting for either the Child-Pugh score (CPS) or Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and other variables. The risk of the liver-related events was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Results: After adjustment for either CPS or MELD and other variables, LSVR was identified as a significant independent predictor of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio for LSVR increase by 1, 0.71 and 0.68 for CPS and MELD models, respectively; p < 0.001) and transplantation-free survival (hazard ratio for LSVR increase by 1, 0.8 and 0.77, respectively; p < 0.001). Patients with an LSVR of < 2.9 (n = 381) had significantly higher 3-year risks of hepatic decompensation (16.7% vs. 2.5%, p < 0.001) and liver-related death or transplantation (10.0% vs. 1.1%, p < 0.001) than those with an LSVR ≥ 2.9 (n = 646). When patients were stratified according to CPS (Child-Pugh A vs. B-C) and MELD (< 10 vs. ≥ 10), an LSVR of < 2.9 was still associated with a higher risk of liver-related events than an LSVR of ≥ 2.9 for all Child-Pugh (p ≤ 0.045) and MELD (p ≤ 0.009) stratifications. Conclusion: The LSVR measured on CT can predict hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival in patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis.

Association Between Pelvic Bone Computed Tomography-Derived Body Composition and Patient Outcomes in Older Adults With Proximal Femur Fracture

  • Tae Ran Ahn;Young Cheol Yoon;Hyun Su Kim;Kyunga Kim;Ji Hyun Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
    • /
    • 제24권5호
    • /
    • pp.434-443
    • /
    • 2023
  • Objective: To investigate the association between pelvic bone computed tomography (CT)-derived body composition and patient outcomes in older adult patients who underwent surgery for proximal femur fractures. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively identified consecutive patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent pelvic bone CT and subsequent surgery for proximal femur fractures between July 2018 and September 2021. Eight CT metrics were calculated from the cross-sectional area and attenuation of the subcutaneous fat and muscle, including the thigh subcutaneous fat (TSF) index, TSF attenuation, thigh muscle (TM) index, TM attenuation, gluteus maximus (GM) index, GM attenuation, gluteus medius and minimus (Gmm) index, and Gmm attenuation. The patients were dichotomized using the median value of each metric. Multivariable Cox regression and logistic regression models were used to determine the association between CT metrics with overall survival (OS) and postsurgical intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respectively. Results: A total of 372 patients (median age, 80.5 years; interquartile range, 76.0-85.0 years; 285 females) were included. TSF attenuation above the median (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-4.05), GM index below the median (adjusted HR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.33-5.26), and Gmm index below the median (adjusted HR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.12-4.55) were independently associated with shorter OS. TSF index (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 6.67; 95% CI, 3.13-14.29), GM index (adjusted OR, 3.45; 95% CI, 1.49-7.69), GM attenuation (adjusted OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.02-5.56), Gmm index (adjusted OR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.22-5.88), and Gmm attenuation (adjusted OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.01-5.00) below the median were independently associated with ICU admission. Conclusion: In older adult patients who underwent surgery for proximal femur fracture, low muscle indices of the GM and gluteus medius/minimus obtained from their cross-sectional areas on preoperative pelvic bone CT were significant prognostic markers for predicting high mortality and postsurgical ICU admission.

Prediction of Decompensation and Death in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Using Deep Learning Analysis of Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI

  • Subin Heo;Seung Soo Lee;So Yeon Kim;Young-Suk Lim;Hyo Jung Park;Jee Seok Yoon;Heung-Il Suk;Yu Sub Sung;Bumwoo Park;Ji Sung Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
    • /
    • 제23권12호
    • /
    • pp.1269-1280
    • /
    • 2022
  • Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of quantitative indices obtained from deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced hepatobiliary phase (HBP) MRI and their longitudinal changes in predicting decompensation and death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Materials and Methods: We included patients who underwent baseline and 1-year follow-up MRI from a prospective cohort that underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance between November 2011 and August 2012 at a tertiary medical center. Baseline liver condition was categorized as non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD. The liver-to-spleen signal intensity ratio (LS-SIR) and liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LS-VR) were automatically measured on the HBP images using a deep learning algorithm, and their percentage changes at the 1-year follow-up (ΔLS-SIR and ΔLS-VR) were calculated. The associations of the MRI indices with hepatic decompensation and a composite endpoint of liver-related death or transplantation were evaluated using a competing risk analysis with multivariable Fine and Gray regression models, including baseline parameters alone and both baseline and follow-up parameters. Results: Our study included 280 patients (153 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 57 ± 7.95 years) with non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD in 32, 186, and 62 patients, respectively. Patients were followed for 11-117 months (median, 104 months). In patients with compensated ACLD, baseline LS-SIR (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.81; p = 0.034) and LS-VR (sHR, 0.71; p = 0.01) were independently associated with hepatic decompensation. The ΔLS-VR (sHR, 0.54; p = 0.002) was predictive of hepatic decompensation after adjusting for baseline variables. ΔLS-VR was an independent predictor of liver-related death or transplantation in patients with compensated ACLD (sHR, 0.46; p = 0.026) and decompensated ACLD (sHR, 0.61; p = 0.023). Conclusion: MRI indices automatically derived from the deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced HBP MRI can be used as prognostic markers in patients with ACLD.

Role and Clinical Importance of Progressive Changes in Echocardiographic Parameters in Predicting Outcomes in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

  • Kyehwan Kim;Seung Do Lee;Hyo Jin Lee;Hangyul Kim;Hye Ree Kim;Yun Ho Cho;Jeong Yoon Jang;Min Gyu Kang;Jin-Sin Koh;Seok-Jae Hwang;Jin-Yong Hwang;Jeong Rang Park
    • Journal of Cardiovascular Imaging
    • /
    • 제31권2호
    • /
    • pp.85-95
    • /
    • 2023
  • BACKGROUND: The prognostic utility of follow-up transthoracic echocardiography (FU-TTE) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is unclear, specifically in terms of whether changes in echocardiographic parameters in routine FU-TTE parameters are associated with cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: From 2010 to 2017, 162 patients with HCM were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Using echocardiography, HCM was diagnosed based on morphological criteria. Patients with other diseases that cause cardiac hypertrophy were excluded. TTE parameters at baseline and FU were analyzed. FU-TTE was designated as the last recorded value in patients who did not develop any cardiovascular event or the latest exam before event development. Clinical outcomes were acute heart failure, cardiac death, arrhythmia, ischemic stroke, and cardiogenic syncope. RESULTS: Median interval between the baseline TTE and FU-TTE was 3.3 years. Median clinical FU duration was 4.7 years. Septal trans-mitral velocity/mitral annular tissue Doppler velocity (E/e'), tricuspid regurgitation velocity, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and left atrial volume index (LAVI) at baseline were recorded. LVEF, LAVI, and E/e' values were associated with poor outcomes. However, no delta values predicted HCM-related cardiovascular outcomes. Logistic regression models incorporating changes in TTE parameters had no significant findings. Baseline LAVI was the best predictor of a poor prognosis. In survival analysis, an already enlarged or increased size LAVI was associated with poorer clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in echocardiographic parameters extracted from TTE did not assist in predicting clinical outcomes. Cross-sectionally evaluated TTE parameters were superior to changes in TTE parameters between baseline and FU at predicting cardiovascular events.

2014년 특별관측 기간 동안 청미천 농경지에서의 WRF/Noah-MP 고해상도 수치모의 (High-Resolution Numerical Simulations with WRF/Noah-MP in Cheongmicheon Farmland in Korea During the 2014 Special Observation Period)

  • 송지애;이승재;강민석;문민규;이정훈;김준
    • 한국농림기상학회지
    • /
    • 제17권4호
    • /
    • pp.384-398
    • /
    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 청미천 농경지를 중심으로 고해상도 지형 및 토지피복 자료 기반의 WRF/Noah-MP 결합시스템을 구축하고 수치모의 한 결과를 2014년 8월 21일부터 9월 10일까지의 청미천 하계 특별관측 자료와 비교하여, 농경지에서의 지면 및 대기모의 성능을 평가하였다. 지면 및 대기 변수의 단기 및 중기모의에 있어서 Noah-MP의 동적 식생 가동이 얼마나 유용한지를 살펴보기 위하여, 동적 식생을 포함하지 않은 실험(CTL)과 포함한 실험(DVG)을 관측기간에 대해 양방향 6중 둥지격자 시스템으로 수행하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 크게 세 가지로서 다음과 같다. 1) CTL 실험은 낮 동안의 순단파 복사 에너지를 과대 모의 함에 따라 현열 및 잠열 플럭스와 보웬비도 관측에 비해 과대 모의하는 경향을 보였다. CTL 실험의 기온은 관측을 대체로 잘 따라갔으나 일출 후 기온의 상승 속도가 관측에 비해 빠른 모습을 보였다. 최저 기온 및 최고 기온의 시점은 잘 모의하였는데, 특히 일 최저기온의 모의는 관측과 $0.3^{\circ}C$ 오차 이내의 성능을 보여, 동해 및 병해충과 연관된 엽면수분 지속시간 예측에 고무적인 결과로 평가되었다. CTL 실험의 10m 바람은 동서 및 남북 풍속 모두 대체로 과대 모의하는 경향을 보였고, 강수 또한 과대 모의하는 경향을 보였으나 강수의 시작 종료시점은 대체로 잘 포착하였다. 2) Noah-MP의 동적 식생을 구동시킨 DVG 실험은 CTL 실험에 비해 엽면적지수, 단파 복사, 지표면 플럭스, 보웬비, 기온, 바람, 강수의 모의를 전반적으로 관측에 더 가깝게 생산하는 것으로 나타났다. 강수, 온도, 복사, 가용 영양소 등의 변동에 대응하여 엽면적지수를 예단하는 DVG 실험은 CTL 실험보다 더 큰 엽면적지수를 생산했으며, 이는 실측에 더 가까운 결과였다. DVG 실험에서도 일출 후 기온 상승률은 관측에 비해 높았는데, 이는 CTL와 DVG 실험 모두에서 공통으로 사용한 YSU 경계층 방안이 갖는 혼합층의 조기 성장 특성과 관련이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. CTL 실험이 보인 바람과 강수의 과대모의 경향도 DVG 실험에서는 어느 정도 완화되는 개선점을 보였다. 3) 수평 해상도의 증가에 따른 청미천 농경지의 수치모의 성능 향상은 지표면 플럭스, 기온, 바람 강수 모두에서 미비하거나 거의 없는 것으로 나타났으며, 보다 정확한 평가를 위해서는 농경지 상의 여러 지점에서 입체적인 관측이 이뤄져야 하고, 모형에 사용되는 지형 및 토지피복 자료의 도메인 간 일관성이 확보되어야 할 것이다.

두경부 암의 표적 지향적 방사선 치료 (Targeted Therapies and Radiation for the Treatment of Head and Neck Cancer)

  • 김귀언
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • 제22권2호
    • /
    • pp.77-90
    • /
    • 2004
  • 종양 발생 과정에 관여되고 있는 분자 생물학적 기전을 직접 공격해 보자고 하는 치료 방침은 암 치료에 있어서 아주 유망한 치료방법의 하나로 인정되고 있다. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) 수용체에 여러 ligands가 결합하게 되면 발암 단계에서부터 암의 진행 과정과 전이 과정 그리고 방사선에 대한 저항성과 관련된 여러 가지중요한 신호전달체계를 활성화시킨다. 특히 진행된 두경부 암 환자들에서 EGFR이 과발현 된 경우에는 매우 불량한 예후를 나타내고 있기 때문에 이러한 signaling pathway의 selective targeting을 위한 많은 임상 시도가 이루어지고 있다. 현재까지 알려진 표적치료 항암제로는 크게 EGFR에 대한 monoclonal antibody와 tyrosin kinase Inhibitors로 대별될 수 있는데 이와 같은 약제들은 여러 xenograft에서 고무적인 실험 결과들이 입증되어 곧 바로 임상 현장에서 적용되고 있다. 그러나 기대와는 달리 EGFR Inhibitor 단독으로 치료한 초기 임상연구 결과들을 보면 극히 소수의 환자에서만 미미한 효과를 나타내고 있고, 방사선 치료와의 병용치료에서도 괄목할만한 항암 효과를 보여주지 않고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 많은 실험적 데이터로부터 여러 가지 생물학적 이점이 밝혀져 있고 또 미래 지향적인 치료법의 하나로 각광을 받고 있기 때문에 현재 많은 연구자들은 어떤 환자 군에서 이러한 표적 치료가 도움이 될 것이며, 방사선 치료 또는 항암 치료와는 어떤 방식으로 조합할 것인지, 또 그 순서는 어떻게 할 것이며, 또 환자 선정에 있어 reliable marker는 무엇인지, 어떻게 체내에서 신호 전달체계의 효과적인 차단을 확인할 수 있겠는지, 또한 multiple targ리ed therapy가 필 요하도록 하는 targeted agent에 대 한 Intrinsic 또는 acquired resistance의 기전은 무엇인지 등등, 현재 당면하고 있는 많은 문제점을 규명하고자 노력하고 있다. 특히 EGFR-signaling pathway를 표적으로 하는 표적 지향적 방사선 치료를 위한 translation research의 적절한 모델이 되고 있는 두경부 암 환자에서 이러한 제반 문제점을 해결하기 위해서는 더 많은 임상 연구와 함께 well-Integrated laboratory clinical research program이 필요할 것으로 생각된다 또한 EGFR antagonist 외에도 anglogenlc pathway나 cell-cycle pathway를 표적으로 하는 새로운 약제들이 계속 개발되고 있고 이에 관한 연구가 활발히 진행 중이다. 따라서 이 고찰에서는 두경부 암 환자에서 이러한 약제들을 방사선 치료와 병용하였을 때의 임상 연구 결과들을 재검토해 보고 부가적으로 EGFR blockade에 따르는 내성 문제 그리고 방사선 치료를 병용하면서 여러 표적을 동시에 차단시키는 multiple-targeted therapy의 개발 현황을 간략히 소개하고자 한다