• 정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학
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• 제4권11호
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• pp.509-520
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• 2015

대학수학능력시험(수능)은 고등학교 3년간의 학업 성취도를 측정하는 대표적인 평가 도구로서 대한민국 대학 입시에 있어 매우 중요한 역할을 하는 시험이다. 응시생들의 학업 성취도를 효과적으로 평가하기 위해서는 수능의 난이도가 적절하게 조절되어야 하나 지금까지는 수능 난이도의 편차가 매우 크게 나타나 매 입시연도마다 여러 가지 문제점을 야기해왔다. 본 연구에서는 전문가의 판단에 의존한 기존 방식에서 벗어나 지금까지 시행된 모의고사 및 실제 시험을 통해 축적된 자료를 바탕으로 데이터마이닝 기법을 적용하여 영어영역 문제의 난이도를 예측하는 모델을 구축하고 난이도 예측에 영향을 미치는 요소를 판별하고자 한다. 이를 위해 각 문항의 특성을 판별할 수 있는 여러 지표와 함께 지문, 문제, 답안 등에 나타난 단어들의 특징을 토픽 모델링(topic modeling) 기법을 이용하여 정량화하고 이를 바탕으로 선형회귀분석 및 의사결정나무 기법을 이용하여 각 문항의 난이도를 예측하는 모델을 구축하였다. 구축된 예측 모델을 실제 문제에 적용한 결과 난이도의 상/하 구분에 대한 예측 정확도는 90% 수준으로 나타났으며, 실제 정답률 대비 오차 비율은 약 16% 이내인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 배점 및 문제 유형이 문제의 난이도에 큰 영향을 미치며 지문이 특정 주제에 관련된 경우에도 난이도에 영향을 미치는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 방법론을 이용하여 영어영역 각 문제들에 대한 기대 정답률의 범위를 추정할 수 있으며 이를 종합하여 영어영역 전체 문제에 대한 정답률 예측을 통해 적절한 난이도의 문제를 출제하는 데 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.127-140
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• 2010

The benefit that a consumer derives from the use of a good often depends on the number of other consumers purchasing the same goods or other compatible items. This property, which is known as network externality, is significant in many IT related industries. Over the past few decades, network externalities have been recognized in the context of physical networks such as the telephone and railroad industries. Today, as many products are provided as a form of system that consists of compatible components, the appreciation of network externality is becoming increasingly important. Network externalities have been extensively studied among economists who have been seeking to explain new phenomena resulting from rapid advancements in ICT (Information and Communication Technology). As a result of these efforts, a new body of theories for 'New Economy' has been proposed. The theoretical bottom-line argument of such theories is that technologies subject to network effects exhibit multiple equilibriums and will finally lock into a monopoly with one standard cornering the entire market. They emphasize that such "tippiness" is a typical characteristic in such networked markets, describing that multiple incompatible technologies rarely coexist and that the switch to a single, leading standard occurs suddenly. Moreover, it is argued that this standardization process is path dependent, and the ultimate outcome is unpredictable. With incomplete information about other actors' preferences, there can be excess inertia, as consumers only moderately favor the change, and hence are themselves insufficiently motivated to start the bandwagon rolling, but would get on it once it did start to roll. This startup problem can prevent the adoption of any standard at all, even if it is preferred by everyone. Conversely, excess momentum is another possible outcome, for example, if a sponsoring firm uses low prices during early periods of diffusion. The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of the adoption process in markets exhibiting network effects by focusing on two factors; switching and agent heterogeneity. Switching is an important factor that should be considered in analyzing the adoption process. An agent's switching invokes switching by other adopters, which brings about a positive feedback process that can significantly complicate the adoption process. Agent heterogeneity also plays a important role in shaping the early development of the adoption process, which has a significant impact on the later development of the process. The effects of these two factors are analyzed by developing an agent-based simulation model. ABM is a computer-based simulation methodology that can offer many advantages over traditional analytical approaches. The model is designed such that agents have diverse preferences regarding technology and are allowed to switch their previous choice. The simulation results showed that the adoption processes in a market exhibiting networks effects are significantly affected by the distribution of agents and the occurrence of switching. In particular, it is found that both weak heterogeneity and strong network effects cause agents to start to switch early and this plays a role of expediting the emergence of 'lock-in.' When network effects are strong, agents are easily affected by changes in early market shares. This causes agents to switch earlier and in turn speeds up the market's tipping. The same effect is found in the case of highly homogeneous agents. When agents are highly homogeneous, the market starts to tip toward one technology rapidly, and its choice is not always consistent with the populations' initial inclination. Increased volatility and faster lock-in increase the possibility that the market will reach an unexpected outcome. The primary contribution of this study is the elucidation of the role of parameters characterizing the market in the development of the lock-in process, and identification of conditions where such unexpected outcomes happen.

• 의료법학
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.3-44
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• 2022

2020. 2.경 대한민국에서 코로나19 감염증의 대유행이 시작될 당시 문제가 되었던 대구 지역 A종교단체의 역학조사 방해 사건을 중심으로 면밀히 검토한 결과, 역학조사관이 특정 단체에게 명단 제출을 요구하였을 때, 이에 불응하거나 편집된 누락 명단을 제출한 행위에 대하여 역학조사에 해당하지 아니한다는 취지로 선고된 사례가 있는 반면, B열방센터 행사 출입자명단 미제출 사건의 경우 '출입자 명단' 등을 요구받았음에도 정당한 이유 없이 거부한 사실에 대하여 '출입자 명단의 제공은 역학조사에 수반되는 역학조사 간의 연결 과정을 형성하는 핵심적 사실행위로, 이를 거부하는 것도 역학조사 거부, 방해행위에 해당'하므로 적법하게 명단을 요구할 수 있어 처벌이 가능하다는 사례도 있다. 교인명단 제출요구가 역학조사에 해당하는지 여부와 관계없이 교인명단 제출 거부 또는 누락 행위가 곧 역학조사 거부·방해행위에 해당하는 경우도 있는데, 역학조사와 직접 관련성, 역학조사를 위한 것임이 외부적으로 표시되어 인식되었는지 여부, 명단의 역학조사 외의 목적으로 전용될 가능성 등을 종합적으로 고려하여 역학조사에 수반되는 사실행위를 방해함으로써 결과적으로 역학조사가 거부 내지 방해되는 결과가 발생한 경우에는 역학조사 방해가 된다는 하급심 판결의 논리가 설득력이 있다. 역학조사 결과 확인된 각 감염병환자등이나 접촉자 등에 대해 설문조사나 인체검체 채취 및 시험과 같은 역학조사가 실시되지만, 개별적인 사람에 대해 실시되는 역학조사가 서로 독립하여 존재할 수 없으며 역학조사의 연결 과정을 확인하고 추적하는 과정이 역학조사에 필수적으로 수반되며 이러한 연결고리를 확인하는 과정을 누군가 고의로 방해하거나 거부하게 되면, 역학조사가 직접적이고 현실적으로, 광범위하게 방해되는 결과가 발생하기 때문이다. 이 글에서는 주로 ① 감염병예방법상 역학조사와 정보 제공 요청은 차이점이 있으나 정보 제공 요청의 경우에도 역학조사에 해당되는 영역이 있다는 점, ② 코로나19의 의학적 특성과 역학조사의 연속성을 감안하면 역학조사관의 명단요구 행위가 역학조사에 해당할 여지가 있다는 점, ③ 특정한 경우에는 역학조사 방해죄가 위계공무집행방해에 해당할 수 있다는 점, ④ 2020. 9. 29.부터 감염병예법상 정보제공요청을 거부하는 경우에 징역형 또는 벌금형의 처벌규정이 신설되어 운용되고 있다는 점 등을 지적하여, 향후 감염병예방법의 적용 및 역학조사 실무 운용에 있어 도움이 되고자 한다.

• 서비스연구
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.186-200
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• 2023

본 연구는 국내 시각장애인 대부분이 외출 시 사용 및 휴대하는 보행 용구인 흰 지팡이를 중심으로 사용성을 개선하고, 도출된 문제점에 대해서는 개선 및 해결 방안을 마련함으로써 시각장애인의 보행권 및 안전사고 예방에 기여하고자 하였다. 또한, 본 연구는 시각장애인을 대상으로 한 연구로, 우리나라 국민 중 약 25만 명에 달하는 전맹과 저시력자 중에서도 보행 용구인 흰 지팡이 없이 혼자 외출하지 못하는 20%에 해당하는 1~2급 시각장애인을 주 타깃으로 하였다. 연구하는 과정에서 디자인씽킹의 더블 다이아몬드 모델(공감하기→문제 정의하기→아이디어 내기→프로토타입 만들기→테스트(검증하기)를 통해 시각장애인이 보행 용구로 주로 사용하는 흰 지팡이의 문제점을 도출하여 사용성을 개선하고 흰 지팡이가 시각장애인이 보행하는 과정에서 실질적인 도움이 될 수 있도록 사용자 입장에서 콘셉트를 개발하였다. 공감하기를 과정에서 조사한 결과 시각장애인의 비율 증가, 모든 시각장애인을 도와줄 인력이 턱없이 부족한 상황, 시각장애인이 필수적으로 사용하는 보조 장치의 개선과 고도화, 점자블록 훼손, 불법점거, 철거, 유지 보수에 대한 문제, 시각장애인을 위한, 모두를 위한 점자블록 패러다임 제시 등 총 다섯 가지의 문제점으로 종합하였다. 아이디어 찾기와 프로토타입 만들기에서 브레인스토밍을 통해 도출된 상황들을 KJ법을 통해 그룹핑하고 관계를 설정하고 콘셉트의 방향성을 수립하기 위해 특정 상황과 주요 원인을 정리하였다. 도출된 솔루션과 주요 기능을 네 가지로 정의하고 솔루션과 주요 기능이 필요한 대표적인 상황을 두 개의 사용자 시나리오로 정리하였다. 가상의 페르소나(Persona)와 사용자 여정 맵(Customer Journey Map)을 상황에 맞춰 정리하고 3D 모델링을 통해 프로토타입을 제작하여 아이디어를 시각화하였다. 마지막으로 평가하기에서 시각장애인을 위한 길 안내용 스마트 지팡이를 ① 휴대성을 강조한 스마트 지팡이 + ② 다른 전자기기들과 호환성 + ③ 안전성과 편의성을 갖춘 제품으로 최종 콘셉트를 도출하였다.

• 심성연구
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.65-101
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• 2010

현대 사회에서 부성 콤플렉스의 여성이 증가하는 이유를 크게 두 가지 관점에서 고려할 수 있다. 우선 사회적 요구가 여성으로 하여금 기존의 여성의 입장에서 벗어나 새로운 역할을 강요하고 있다. 이러한 우리 시대의 사회적 요구는 본성을 억압하도록 하는 부성적 특성의 외압으로 작용한다. 따라서 현대의 여성은 저절로 부성상의 지배 하에 놓이게 되는 부성 콤플렉스의 여성이 된다. 또 다른 관점에서 보면 무의식의 보상성에 의하여 부성 콤플렉스의 여성 유형이 증가하고 있다고 볼 수도 있다. 부성상은 언제나 집단의식과 관련되는 심상이다. 집단의식에 문제가 생기고, 이에 대한 해결을 위하여 소위 부성상의 부름을 받은 여성의 경우도 부성 콤플렉스의 여성이 될 것이다. 부성콤플렉스의 여성이 증가하고 있는 현대의 추세는 그만큼 집단 사회의 문제를 폭로하는 것이고, 그에 대한 해결의 욕구가 절실해진 것으로 이해될 수 있다. 부성상의 영향력은 여성에게 긍정적이든 부정적이든 병리적 현상을 야기할 정도로 치명적이다. 그러나 모든 원형상이 그러하듯 그러한 영향력의 이면에는 궁극적으로 도달하고자 하는 목적의미가 숨어 있다. 이를 고려한다면 치명적으로 작용하는 부성상의 요구를 제대로 이해하고, 성공적으로 실현하는 것은, 부성 콤플렉스의 여성 개인에게서는 부성상의 극복이자 동시에 부성상의 치유이고, 궁극적으로는 집단의식이 가진 문제를 해결하게 되는 것이다. 연구를 위하여 부성상의 영향 하에 있는 여성 인물상을 다루는 두 민담을 선택하였다. <심청전>은 긍정적인 부성 콤플렉스의 여성을 위하여, 그리고 <바리공주>는 부정적 부성 콤플렉스의 여성을 위하여 선택되었다. 연구의 진행은 부성상과 관련된 여성 주인공의 민담의 분석심리학적 해석을 통하여 크게 세 가지 국면으로 살펴보려고 하였다. 그 첫 번째는 민담의 해석을 통하여 부성상의 지배 하에 있는 여성이 겪는 전형적인 문제점을 살펴보는 것이다. 특히 부성이 갖는 긍정적 영향력과 부정적 영향력을 여성의 삶과 연결시켜 구체적으로 다룰 것이다. 두 번째는 민담에서 강력한 부성상의 지배로부터 여성 주인공이 어떻게 벗어나는지를 살펴보게 될 것이다. 이는 부성 콤플렉스의 여성 유형이 여성성을 회복하고 전(全)인격적 실현에 이르는 길을 제시하는 내용이 된다. 마지막으로 부성상의 지배 하에 있게 된 여성은 궁극적으로 집단이 가진 문제를 해결하고 치유하도록 부름을 받았다는 관점을 제시할 것이다. 여성 주인공이 성공적으로 부성상에서 벗어나 오히려 부성상의 문제를 해결한다면 이는 집단의 삶에 새로운 면모를 가져다줄 하나의 전형이 될 것이다. 이것이 두민담을 통하여 다루려는 부성 콤플렉스의 진정한 목적의미가 될 것이다.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.81-115
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• 1992

The problem addressed by this study was to determine the effect of nurse - patient agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in the early postpartum period of primiparous mothers. It was hypothesized that the experimental treatment would result in hegher self-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance. This purpose was to contribute to the planning of nursing care to enhance self- confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance and to the development of relevant nursing theory. Especially, the early postpartum period is crucial toward in recovery from childbirth and attainment of the maternal role. Maternal role attaintment is a complex social and cognitive process of stimulus -response accomplished by learning. Most women attain the maternal role sucessfully. But, some primiparous mothers experience difficultites in attainment of the maternal role due to lack of experience and knowledge. Self-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance are important factors in attainment and adjustment to the maternal role (Mercer, 1981a, 1981b ; Lederman, Weigarten, and Lederman, 1981 :Bobak and Jensen, 1985). Nursing is defined as behaviors of nurses add patients that attain nursing goals through action, reaction, interaction, and transaction. For attainment of nursing goals, active participating transactions must occur by agreement on the means to achieve those goals through nurse -patient mutual goal setting and establishment of their active relationships(King, 1981, Ha, 1977). Based on King's theory of goal attainment (1981), this stuy was planned as a non-equivalent control group, non -synchronized quasi -experimental design using agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in early postpartum as the experimental treatment. The data were collected from July 20 to Sep. 1, 1991 by questionnaires with 60 primiparous mothers planing to breast feed after normal deliveries at W hospital in Pusan, Korea. The subjects were divided into a control group(conventional group) -those admitted from July 20 to Aug. 12, and an experimental group(agreement group) - those admitted from Aug. 13 to Sep. 1. The instument for agreement on the means to nursing goals in the early postpartum period included five steps - identification of disturbances of problems through action, reaction, and interaction with primiparous mothers : mutual early postpartal nursing goal setting : exploration of the means to achieve goals ; agreement on the means (self- care, ealry maternal -infant contact, performance of mothering behavior, and communicating about the infant's behavior and health condition) : implementation of the means. This instrument was developed on the basis of King's elements that lead to transactions in nurse-patient interactions. Lederman et al's (1981) scale for Confidence in ability to cope with tasks of motherhood and Lederman et al's(1981) scale for Mother's satisfaction with motherhood and infant care were used to measure self-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance ·with the subjects immediately after admission and on the day of discharge. Self-care performance in the experimental group was measured by self -evaluation tool developed by the investigator from the literature concerned. The tools to measure Pelf-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance, and the tool to measure self-evaluation of self-care performance were tested for internal reliability. Cronbach's Alphas were 0.94, 0.94, and 0.63. The data were analysed by using in S.P.S.S. computerized program and included percentage, x²-test, t-test, ANOVA, and Pearson Correlation Coefficient. The conclusions obtained from this study are summerized as follows : 1. The degree of self-confidence in maternal role performance of the total subjects group measured before the experimental treatment was above average with a mean score of 2.77(range 2.14-3.64). Out of 14 items, those with relatively high mean scores were ‘I would like to be a better mother than I am’(3.95), and ‘I have my doubts about whether I am a good mother’(2.87). Those with low mean scores were ‘I know that my baby wants most of the times’(2.28), ‘When the baby cries, I can tell what she /he wants’(2.37), and ‘I have confidence in my ability to care for the baby’(2;50). That is, the self - confidence of Primiparous mothers was considerably high in mothering, but rather low in activities concerning the infant care and understanding of the infant behavior. The degree of satisfaction in maternal role performance of the total subjects group measured before the experimental treatment was high with a mean score of 3.18(range 1.92-3.92). Out of 13 items, those with relatively high mean scores were ‘I am glad 1 had this baby now’(3.75), ‘I play with the baby between feedings when s/he is awake and quiet’(3.67), and ‘I enjoy being a mother’(3.27). Those with low mean scores were ‘I am upset about having too many responsibilities as a mother’(2.78), ‘It bothers me to get up for the baby at night’(2.82), and ‘I get annoyed if the baby frequently interrupts my activities’.(2.82), That is, the satisfaction of primiparous mothers was considerably high in mothering and infant care, but rather low in restraints in time or on the mother's self accomplishment and development. 2. Agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in the early postpartum period included process of mutual goal setting, exploration of the means to achieve goals, and ahreement in concert means to achieve goals based on the mothers' condition, concerns, self-perception of the nurse - patient interactions. In the process of agreement, there was agreement that the means to achieve goals should be through trust and establishment of active relationships with the nurse through identification of problems according to planned nursing goals and active interaction, such as explanations, teaching, changing of opinions, acceptance or rejection of explanations, and proposing of questions. Therefore agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in the early postpartum period appears to be an effective nursing intervention for primiparous mothers. 3. The degree of self- confidence in maternal role performance of the exprimental group was higher than that of the control group(t＝3.95, p＜0.01). Out of 14 items, those with higher score in the experimental group were ‘I would like to be a better mother than I am’(t＝1.93, p＜0.05), ‘I know that my baby wants most of the times’(t＝2.75, p＜0.01), ‘When the baby cries, 1 can tell what she/he wants’(t＝2.10, p＜0.05), ‘I have confidence in my ability to care for the baby’(t＝3.72, p＜0.01), ‘I trust my own judement in deciding how to care for the baby’(t＝1.96, p＜0.05), ‘I feel that I know my baby and what to do for him /her’(t＝2.44, p＜0.01), ‘I am concerned about being able to meet the baby's needs’(t＝2.87, p＜0.01), ‘I know what my baby likes and dislikes’(t＝3.26, p＜0.01), ‘I don't know to care for the baby as well as I should’(t＝2.07, p＜0.05), and ‘I am unsure about whether I give enough attention to the baby’(t＝3.04, p＜0.01), That is, the degree of self-confidence in mothering, activities concerning infant care, and understanding of infant behavior of the experimental group was higher than that of the control group. Therefore, the first hypothesis, that the degree of self-confidence in maternal role performance of the experimental group would be higher than that of the control group, was supported(t＝3.95, p＜0.01). 4. The degree of satisfaction in the maternal role performance of the exprimental group was higer than that or the control group(t＝2.31, p＜0.05). Out of 13 items, those with higher score in the experimental group were ‘I am glad I had this baby now’(t＝2.29, p＜0.05), ‘I enjoy taking care of the baby’(t＝2.4g, p＜0.01), ‘It is boring for me to care for the baby and do the same thing over and over’(t＝2.87, P＜0.01), ‘I am unhappy with the amount of time I have for activities other than childcare’(t＝2.51, p＜0.01), and ‘When bathing and diapering the baby, I would like to be doing something else’(t＝2.43, p＜0.01). That is, the degree of satisfaction in mothering, infant care, and restraints in time of on the mother's self accomplishment and development in the experimental group was higher than that of the control group. Therefore, the second hypothesis, that the degree of satisfaction in maternal role performance of the experimental group would be higher than that of the control group, was supported(t＝2.31, p＜0.05). 5. The third hypothesis, that the higher the degree of satisfaction in materenal role performance, the higher the degree of self-confidence in materenal role performance in the experimental group, was supported (r＝0.57, p＜0.01)

• 마케팅과학연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.141-173
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• 2007

본 연구는 점포를 방문하는 동안 노출되는 매장의 물리적 환경 특성이 서비스 브랜드 개성과 재구매의도에 미치는 영향력을 규명하기 위해 시도되었다. 이를 위해 연구모형을 개발하여, 특정 서비스 브랜드의 이용객을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하고 구조방정식을 이용하여 분석하였다. 연구 결과는 우선, 서비스의 물리적 환경은 주변요인, 디자인요인, 사회요인으로, 그리고 서비스브랜드 개성은 유능함, 성실함, 흥분됨, 세련됨, 강인함 차원으로 분류되었다. 둘째, 물리적 환경의 모든 차원들이 모든 서비스 브랜드 개성차원에 정(+)의 영향을 주었으며, 물리적 환경의 서비스 브랜드 개성에 대한 영향력은 각 차원별로 상이하였다. 셋째, 서비스 브랜드 개성은 모두 재구매의도에 정(+)의 영향을 주었으며, 특히 세련됨 차원에 미치는 영향이 가장 켰다. 넷째, 서비스의 물리적 환경은 재구매의도에 정(+)의 영향을 주었으며, 특히 물리적 환경 중 사회요인이 재구매의도에 가장 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과들은 물리적 환경 연출은 브랜드 개성 형성의 결정요인으로 서비스 브랜드 차별화의 핵심요인으로 작용하므로, 호의적인 브랜드 개성 창출을 위해서는 우선적으로 물리적 환경에 대한 효율적 관리 방안이 강구되어야 함을 보여준다.

• 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한교통학회 1995년도 제27회 학술발표회
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• pp.101-113
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• 1995

The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.