• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability theory

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Development of an Objective Judgement Procedure for Determining Involvement of Violation-Type Unsafe Acts caused Industrial Accidents (사고 유발 불안전행동의 위반 여부에 대한 객관적 판단절차 개발)

  • Lim, Hyeon Kyo;Ham, Seung Eon;Bak, Geon Yeong;Lee, Yong Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2022
  • When an accident occurs, the associated human activity is typically regarded as a "human error," or a temporal deviation. On the other hand, if the accident results in a serious loss or if it evokes a social issue, the person determined to be responsible may be punished with a "violation" of related laws or regulations. However, as Heinrich stated, it is neither appropriate nor reasonable in terms of probability theory and cognitive science to distinguish whether it is a "human error" or a "violation" with a criterion of resultant accident severity. Nonetheless, some in society get on the social climate to strengthen regulations on workers who have caused accidents, especially violations. This response can present a social issue due to the lack of systematic judgment procedure which distinguishes violations from human errors. The purpose of this study was to develop an objective and systematic procedure to assess whether workers' activities which induced industrial accidents should be categorized as violations rather than human errors. Various analysis techniques for the determination of violation procedure were investigated and compared using an analysis approach method. An appropriate technique was not found, however, for judging the culpability of intentional violations. As an alternative, this study developed the process of creating violations, based on cognitive procedure, as well as the criteria to determine and categorize an activity as a violation. In addition, the developed procedure was applied to cases of industrial accidents and nuclear power plant issues to test its practical applicability. The study demonstrated that the proposed model could be used to determine the existence of a violation even in the case of multiple workers who work simultaneously.

The Effect of Performance Feedback on Firms' Decision to Form an International Strategic Alliance and Performance in the Korean Manufacturing Industry

  • Han, Sang-yun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.57-77
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - International strategic alliance has been regarded as a strategic decision made by firms' managerial problems and ensure performance growth. From the perspective of the proactive behavior for changing strategies in a global market, this study aims to identify whether performance feedback influences firms' decisions to pursue strategic alliances. This study examines the effects of performance feedback on performance when firms use strategic alliances. Design/methodology - To analyze the impact of performance feedback on forming an international strategic alliance, this study adopt the concept of performance feedback to develop a research model and our hypotheses. Thus, this study used a two-stage least squares unbalanced panel data analysis with random effects. This study is based on 24,543 observations from Korean manufacturing firms from 2007 to 2016. Findings - The results show that firms pursue the formation of strategic alliances more actively, if their past financial and R&D performance are lower than their aspiration level, based on the result of performance feedback. An in split sample analysis for examining the effect of a firm's technology sophistication based on the OECD's classification, negative innovation performance discrepancy has positive effects on the probability of international alliance in high-tech and medium-high-tech industries. Financial performance also improves when a firm decides to form a strategic alliance based on the results of performance feedback. Originality/value - This research extends recent efforts to better understand the effect of performance feedback on firms' performance when they use strategic alliances. These findings suggest that the CEOs and managers of firms should consider the performance feedback perspective when deciding to pursue a strategic alliance to improve performance. In other words, the decision-makers in a firm must analyze and consider various complex variables inside and outside the firm and expand such subjects of examination to more complex and dynamic factors.

Probabilistic Analysis and Design of the Spacing of Prefabricated Vertical Drains Considering Uncertainties in Geotechnical Property (지반 불확실성을 고려한 연직배수재 배치간격의 확률론적 해석과 결정)

  • Kim, Bang-Sig;Kim, Byung-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.125-132
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    • 2007
  • The oedometer, radial CRS and Rowe cell tests, composite discharge capacity tests and smear effect tests are carried out to estimate the parameters for the reliability-based design of vertical drain method. Also the sensitivity analysis, the probabilistic and deterministic solutions of radial consolidation theory are presented. The result of probabilistic analysis was compared to that of deterministic analysis using the tested and estimated parameters. The results indicated that the drain spacing in the deterministic method is larger than that in the probabilistic method because the former does not consider the uncertainties in the geotechnical property. The divergence of two methods is dependent on the probability of achieving target degree of consolidation by a given time and the coefficient of variation (COV) of the coefficient of horizontal consolidation ($c_h$).

A Disk-based Archival Storage System Using the EOS Erasure Coding Implementation for the ALICE Experiment at the CERN LHC

  • Ahn, Sang Un;Betev, Latchezar;Bonfillou, Eric;Han, Heejune;Kim, Jeongheon;Lee, Seung Hee;Panzer-Steindel, Bernd;Peters, Andreas-Joachim;Yoon, Heejun
    • Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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    • v.10 no.spc
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2022
  • Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI) is a Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) Tier-1 center mandated to preserve raw data produced from A Large Ion Collider Experiment (ALICE) experiment using the world's largest particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). Physical medium used widely for long-term data preservation is tape, thanks to its reliability and least price per capacity compared to other media such as optical disk, hard disk, and solid-state disk. However, decreasing numbers of manufacturers for both tape drives and cartridges, and patent disputes among them escalated risk of market. As alternative to tape-based data preservation strategy, we proposed disk-only erasure-coded archival storage system, Custodial Disk Storage (CDS), powered by Exascale Open Storage (EOS), an open-source storage management software developed by CERN. CDS system consists of 18 high density Just-Bunch-Of-Disks (JBOD) enclosures attached to 9 servers through 12 Gbps Serial Attached SCSI (SAS) Host Bus Adapter (HBA) interfaces via multiple paths for redundancy and multiplexing. For data protection, we introduced Reed-Solomon (RS) (16, 4) Erasure Coding (EC) layout, where the number of data and parity blocks are 12 and 4 respectively, which gives the annual data loss probability equivalent to 5×10-14. In this paper, we discuss CDS system design based on JBOD products, performance limitations, and data protection strategy accommodating EOS EC implementation. We present CDS operations for ALICE experiment and long-term power consumption measurement.

The Stochastic Finite Element Analysis and Reliability Analysis of the Cable Stayed Bridge Considered to Correlation of the Random Variable (확률변수의 상관성을 고려한 사장교의 확률유한요소해석 및 신뢰성해석)

  • Han, Sung Ho;Shin, Jae Chul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2006
  • The reliability analysis can be conducted more effectively by formulating the stochastic finite element method suitable for the reliability theory about the cable stayed bridge. After conducting the initial equilibrium analysis of the cable stayed bridge, the program which can conduct the linear and nonlinear stochastic finite element analysis using the perturbation method and the reliability analysis considered to the correlation of the random variable is developed. Using the results of this program about the cable stayed bridge, the characteristic of the node displacement, element force and cable tension according to the correlation of the random variable is investigated quantitatively. Also the reliability index and the failure probability are examined by the compounding the correlation of the random variable.

Evaluation and analysis of future flood probabilities in rural watershed based on probability theory (확률론 기반 농촌 유역의 미래 홍수 확률 평가 및 분석)

  • Kwak, Jihye;Lee, Hyunji;Kim, Jihye;Jun, Sang Min;Kim, Seokhyeon;Kim, Sinae;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.187-187
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    • 2022
  • 우리나라의 농촌 유역은 크게 1) 상류에 위치한 농업용 저수지, 2) 저수지 방류부, 3) 저수지 하류하천, 4) 하류 농업 지대로 구성된다. 이들 모두 유역의 홍수·침수와 연관되어 있으나 각각의 설계 빈도가 서로 달라 일시에 수용 가능한 수자원의 양이 상이하다. 예컨대 극한 강우가 발생한 경우 PMP를 고려하여 설계된 저수지에서는 유입 홍수량이 통제될 수 있으나 50-200년 빈도로 설계된 하류하천에서는 측면 유입량 때문에 홍수가 발생할 수 있다. 따라서 유역의 홍수 확률을 산출할 때에는 유역 구성지역별 홍수 확률을 산정한 후 종합적으로 고려할 필요가 있다. 특히 농촌유역의 경우 하류하천 및 농경지의 설계 빈도 기준이 도시에 비해 낮아 유역 구성요소 간 처리 가능한 수자원 양의 차이가 크다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 농촌 유역을 대상으로 연구를 진행하였다. 한편, 최근 기후변화로 인해 극한 강우 사상의 빈도가 잦아짐에 따라 유역 내 홍수의 발생이 증가하고 있다. 따라서 기후변화에 따른 미래 농촌 유역의 홍수 발생 여부 파악이 필수적이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 CMIP 6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)의 GCM (General Circulation Model) 기상산출물을 농촌 유역에 적용함으로써 미래 농촌 유역의 홍수 발생 여부를 확인하고자 하였다. 또한, CMIP 6의 GCM 산출 기상자료의 시간 단위는 24시간 혹은 3시간으로 시간적 해상도가 낮으므로 유역 홍수 모의를 위하여 GCM 산출물의 시간 분해를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서는 MRC (Multiplicative Random Cascade) 모형을 기후변화 시나리오 기상자료에 적용함으로써 강우 자료의 시간 분해를 수행하고, 시간 분해 결과물을 활용하여 농촌 유역의 미래 홍수 확률을 산정해보고자 하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 농촌 유역의 홍수 확률 산정 기법에 관한 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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Democratization and Politics of Trasformismo : Explaining the 1990 Three-Party Merger in South Korea

  • Kwon, Hyeokyong
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.2-12
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    • 2017
  • Research on democratic transitions has relatively ignored the question of why some countries experience a regressive form of political pacts, while others do not. This paper develops a simple game-theoretic model to explain the phenomenon of collusive pacts in the process of democratization. Trasformismo is a term that refers to a system of political exchange based on informal clientelistic politics. The existing studies of the politics of trasformismo have emphasized the timing of industrialization and the tradition of strong state as conditions of the politics of trasformismo. However, not every late industrializers and not every strong states experienced some variants of collusive political pacts in their trajectories of democratization. In this paper, I contend that the politics of trasformismo is rather a generalizable pattern of political elites' behavior under particular circumstances. By developing a simple game theoretic model, this paper suggests the conditions under which political actors are likely to collude to a regressive form of political pacts. The model shows that the likelihood of collusion to a regressive form of political pacts is a function of a set of parameters. First, a higher level of incumbency advantage in electoral competition is likely to be associated with a higher probability of collusive political pacts. Second, a higher degree of the monopoly of political representation of political parties without a close link with a variety of societal forces is likely to induce collusive behavior among politicians. Third, the ruling party leader's expectations about the likelihood of a safe extrication are related to collusive political pacts. This paper then engages in a case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea. The 1990 Korean case is interesting in that the ruling party created a new party after having merged with two opposition parties. This case can be considered a result of political maneuver in a context of democratization. The case study suggests the empirical relevance of the game-theoretic model. As the game of trasformismo and the case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea have shown, the collusive political pact was neither determined by a certain stage of economic development nor by a particular cultural systems. Rather, it was a product of the art of trasformismo based on party leaders' rational calculations of the expected likelihood of taking governing power.

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Examining the Formation of Entrepreneurial Activities through Cognitive Approach (기업가적 활동 형성에 미치는 영향요인: 인지론적 접근)

  • Lee, Chaewon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2017
  • There have been questions how entrepreneurs think, act and why individuals become entrepreneurs. The trait-based explanation of entrepreneurial activities has been main stream. However, the trait-based theory has been criticized because it assumes that entrepreneurial traits are inherited, stable and enduring over time. This research accepts the cognitive theory to see how entrepreneurs learn or accept others' values, how entrepreneurial perceptions of opportunity impact entrepreneurial actions and how individuals acquire the social legitimation of the formation of entrepreneurial activities. In order to capture the attitudes, activities and motivations of people who are involved in entrepreneurial activities, the author uses the GEM Korea 2016 data. The data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM) has been well known for the data to capture individuals early-stage entrepreneurial activities. This paper used the sample from the APS(Adult Population Survey) of the GEM which was completed by a representative sample of two thousand adults in Korea by the qualified survey vendor, with strict procedures and oversight by the GEM central data team. The hypotheses are tested with logit regression analysis to estimate the probability of the influence of perceptual variables such as individual perception in social learning, the opportunity recognition in the environment, and social legitimation in the entrepreneurial activities. Based on the results, individuals tend to have high entrepreneurial activities if individuals have high self-efficacy. Also, the existence of role models around the entrepreneurs encourages the individuals involve in entrepreneurial activities more however the perception of opportunity in the environment is not strongly associated with entrepreneurial activities. The media exposure of successful entrepreneurs is more important than others' perception of entrepreneurs on the desirable career option or respect from communities. This paper can contribute to the cognitive processes, particular perception about oneself, as well as perception which is impacted by a community or a society.

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Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

A hybrid algorithm for the synthesis of computer-generated holograms

  • Nguyen The Anh;An Jun Won;Choe Jae Gwang;Kim Nam
    • Proceedings of the Optical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.07a
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    • pp.60-61
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    • 2003
  • A new approach to reduce the computation time of genetic algorithm (GA) for making binary phase holograms is described. Synthesized holograms having diffraction efficiency of 75.8% and uniformity of 5.8% are proven in computer simulation and experimentally demonstrated. Recently, computer-generated holograms (CGHs) having high diffraction efficiency and flexibility of design have been widely developed in many applications such as optical information processing, optical computing, optical interconnection, etc. Among proposed optimization methods, GA has become popular due to its capability of reaching nearly global. However, there exits a drawback to consider when we use the genetic algorithm. It is the large amount of computation time to construct desired holograms. One of the major reasons that the GA' s operation may be time intensive results from the expense of computing the cost function that must Fourier transform the parameters encoded on the hologram into the fitness value. In trying to remedy this drawback, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been put forward, allowing CGHs to be created easily and quickly (1), but the quality of reconstructed images is not high enough to use in applications of high preciseness. For that, we are in attempt to find a new approach of combiningthe good properties and performance of both the GA and ANN to make CGHs of high diffraction efficiency in a short time. The optimization of CGH using the genetic algorithm is merely a process of iteration, including selection, crossover, and mutation operators [2]. It is worth noting that the evaluation of the cost function with the aim of selecting better holograms plays an important role in the implementation of the GA. However, this evaluation process wastes much time for Fourier transforming the encoded parameters on the hologram into the value to be solved. Depending on the speed of computer, this process can even last up to ten minutes. It will be more effective if instead of merely generating random holograms in the initial process, a set of approximately desired holograms is employed. By doing so, the initial population will contain less trial holograms equivalent to the reduction of the computation time of GA's. Accordingly, a hybrid algorithm that utilizes a trained neural network to initiate the GA's procedure is proposed. Consequently, the initial population contains less random holograms and is compensated by approximately desired holograms. Figure 1 is the flowchart of the hybrid algorithm in comparison with the classical GA. The procedure of synthesizing a hologram on computer is divided into two steps. First the simulation of holograms based on ANN method [1] to acquire approximately desired holograms is carried. With a teaching data set of 9 characters obtained from the classical GA, the number of layer is 3, the number of hidden node is 100, learning rate is 0.3, and momentum is 0.5, the artificial neural network trained enables us to attain the approximately desired holograms, which are fairly good agreement with what we suggested in the theory. The second step, effect of several parameters on the operation of the hybrid algorithm is investigated. In principle, the operation of the hybrid algorithm and GA are the same except the modification of the initial step. Hence, the verified results in Ref [2] of the parameters such as the probability of crossover and mutation, the tournament size, and the crossover block size are remained unchanged, beside of the reduced population size. The reconstructed image of 76.4% diffraction efficiency and 5.4% uniformity is achieved when the population size is 30, the iteration number is 2000, the probability of crossover is 0.75, and the probability of mutation is 0.001. A comparison between the hybrid algorithm and GA in term of diffraction efficiency and computation time is also evaluated as shown in Fig. 2. With a 66.7% reduction in computation time and a 2% increase in diffraction efficiency compared to the GA method, the hybrid algorithm demonstrates its efficient performance. In the optical experiment, the phase holograms were displayed on a programmable phase modulator (model XGA). Figures 3 are pictures of diffracted patterns of the letter "0" from the holograms generated using the hybrid algorithm. Diffraction efficiency of 75.8% and uniformity of 5.8% are measured. We see that the simulation and experiment results are fairly good agreement with each other. In this paper, Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network have been successfully combined in designing CGHs. This method gives a significant reduction in computation time compared to the GA method while still allowing holograms of high diffraction efficiency and uniformity to be achieved. This work was supported by No.mOl-2001-000-00324-0 (2002)) from the Korea Science & Engineering Foundation.

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