In this study, we write down the definitions, their causes and the techniques of analysis as a theoretical consideration of common cause failures, and investigate the limitation and the importance of the common cause failures by applying to the analysis on the fire protection as a representative safety facility. As you can know in the reliability analysis, most impressive cause is the malfunctions of pumping operations; especially the common cause failure of two pumps is dominant. In other words, it is possible to assess system-reliability as twice as actual without CCF From these, CCF is extraordinarily important and the results are highly dependent on the CCF factor. And although it would increase with multiple installations, the reliability are not defined as linear with those multiplications. In addition, the differences in results due to the models for analysis are not significant, whereas the various sources of data produce highly different results. Therefore, we conclude that the reliabilities are dependent on the quality of the usable data much better than the variety of models. As a result, the basic and engineering device for the preventions of CCF of the multiple facilities is to design it as reliably as to design the fire-water pump. That is to say, we must assess those reliabilities using PFD whether they are appropriate to SIL (Safety Integrity Level) which is required for the reliability in SIS (Safety Instrumented System). The result of the analysis on the reliability of the fire-water supply with CCF shows that PFD is 3.80E-3, so that it cannot be said to be designed as safely as in the level of SIL5. However, without CCF, PFD is 1.82E-3 which means that they are designed as unsafely as before.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability model for slope stability of Earth-rockfill dams which accounts for all uncertainties encountered. The uncertain factors of the design variables include the cohesion, the angle of internal friction, and the porewater Pressure in each zone. More specifically, the model errors in estimating those variables are studied in depth. To reduce the uncertainties due to model errors, updated design variables are obtained using Bayesian Theory. For stability analysis, both the two-dimesional stability analysis and the three-dimensional stability analysis where the end effects and the system reliability concept are considered are used for the reliability calculations. The deterministic safety factor by the three-dimensional analysis is lager than that by the two-dimensional anlysis. However, the probability of failure by the three-dimensional analysis is about 3.5 times larger that by the two-dimensional analysis. It is because the system reliability concept is used in the three-dimensional analysis. The sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the cohesion than that of the angle of internal friction.
This study included the analysis of mushroom data collected from Mt. Chiak in Gangwon-do using various methods. Former studies of Korean mushrooms are limited by regional characters and there is less species diversity among the regions. This study tried to find a way for the forecast of mushroom distribution and appearance by indexes of species diversity. The indexes used in this study include the number of fungi (N), the number of species (S), similarity index (C), richness index (R1, R2), variety index (V1, V2), evenness index (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5), and dominance index (D1) to analyze variety of species diversity. Analyses of data of fungi using a multistage cluster sampling indicate that the average value of C for years was higher than the average value of C for areas. The mushrooms consisted of 208 species in 686 individuals in limited fungal collection from 2002 to 2003. One hundred thirty nine species in 393 individuals were collected in 2002, and 122 species 293 individuals were collected in 2003. The individuals collected in 2003 were smaller than 2002's individuals. Similarity, richness, and variety indexes' values of 2003 were reduced than 2002's values but dominance index of 2003 was increased than 2002's value. Generally the species diversity of the environment to evaluate the index of similarity, richness, and variety was a higher index; dominance index was lower than that of the surrounding environment, suggesting a good diversity. As a result, the occurrence of mushrooms in the surrounding environment and the various factors seem fell in 2002 compared to 2003. The majority genus of the limited fungal collection was Mycena genus in 63 individuals; the majority species was Laccaria laccata in 34 individuals. Ninety three species in 106 individuals were collected by the extended collection and the majority genus of the extended collection was Amanita genus in 17 individuals; the majority species was Amanita citrina (Schaeff.) Pers. which was found in 5 individuals. This demonstrates that periodical similarity's value was 0.159 is higher than special similarity's 0.119. This indicates that the probability of the appearance of same mushrooms in the same area in following year is higher than the probability of the appearance of same mushrooms in the surrounding area in same year. The value of coefficient of variation (CV), in which the amount of change is much or less by N is higher than the CV value by S. CV value of dominance index(D) was the highest r point among other indexes, and evenness index (E) was the lowest point among other indexes. The correlation matrix with 66 combinations between the indexes, the combinations with correlations was 46 combinations. These results revealed that indexes of R1, V2, and E1 were proper to represent species diversity of fungi based on the correlation matrix and the theory of statistical independence which means there is no or less mutual association. This research would contribute to the study about variable living creature by measuring method and in the future this would be used to figure out regulation about fungi with their correlation, values in ecosystem, develop improving new models about agricultural fungi species and numbers by investigating agricultural variable species.
Seismic risk assessment of railway bridges is an important issue for a transportation network, because loss of functionality of railway bridges could result in severe disruption of the railway line, as no redundant routing systems generally exist. Although many studies have been conducted by numerous researchers regarding fragility analyses of bridge structure, little or no studies have been done for fragility analyses of a class of bridge structures considering their geometric variability. This study performs a fragility analysis for Track-on Steel-Plate-Girder (TOSPG) railway bridges in Korea considering their span variability. Seismic fragility curves are developed for a series of bridges with different spans varying from 2 to 15. At last, the fragility curves for the whole TOSPG bridges in Korea are also developed using the total probability theorem. This study is expected to effectively contribute to the seismic risk assessment of railway lines, where a number of bridges are present.
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
/
v.21
no.7
/
pp.607-615
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2020
The purpose of this study was to analyze the research status and trends related to the industrial mathematics based on text mining techniques with a sample of 4910 papers collected in the SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics from 1970 to 2019. The R program was used to collect titles, abstracts, and key words from the papers and to analyze topic modeling techniques based on LDA algorithm. As a result of the coherence score on the collected papers, 20 topics were determined optimally using the Gibbs sampling methods. The main results were as follows. First, studies on industrial mathematics were conducted in a variety of mathematics fields, including computational mathematics, geometry, mathematical modeling, topology, discrete mathematics, probability and statistics, with a focus on analysis and algebra. Second, 5 hot topics (mathematical biology, nonlinear partial differential equation, discrete mathematics, statistics, topology) and 1 cold topic (probability theory) were found based on time series regression analysis. Third, among the fields that were not reflected in the 2015 revised mathematics curriculum, numeral system, matrix, vector in space, and complex numbers were extracted as the contents to be covered in the high school mathematical curriculum. Finally, this study suggested strategies to activate industrial mathematics in Korea, described the study limitations, and proposed directions for future research.
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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v.6
no.4
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pp.53-60
/
1986
This study is directed to propose a probability based LRFD design code, which could possibly replace the traditional USD provisions of the current code, based on the AFOSM reliability theory. The uncertainties of resistances and load effects for each R.C. structural elements are evaluated and adopted considering our practice, and a set of rational target reliability indices are selected based on the calibration with the reliability of the current R.C. design code and by considering the desired hierarchy of safety level. Then, a set of common load factors are chosen from the results of load and resistance factors which are computed by AFOSM method using the Rackwitz-Fiessler's efficient practical algorithm which is to transform the non-normal variables into the equivalent normal variables. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD code for the R.C. building structures may have to be incorporated into the current RC. design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD provisions of the current R.C. design code.
Kim, Yeong-Sik;Nam, Yoon-Chang;Jeon, Hae-Sung;Jeon, Kun-Hak;Choo, Yeon-Moon
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
/
v.21
no.10
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pp.325-333
/
2020
Current methods of measuring the sediment concentration of natural streams can be affected by weather conditions and have lower reliability in bed-load sections due to mechanical limits. Theoretical methods have to be used to solve this problem, but they have low reliability compared to the measured values and diverse results for the bed-load sediment concentration. This study proposes a new way to reliably determine the bed-load sediment concentration from the relation with theoretical depth-integrated concentration based on the informational entropy concept. Sediment distribution shows a uniform probability distribution under maximized entropy conditions under some constraints, so a function can be calculated for the sediment distribution and depth-integrated concentration. The parameters of a stream were estimated by a nonlinear regression method using the concentration data from a past experiment. Equilibrium N (EN) was estimated using the relation between two different formulas proposed in this study, which can ease the estimation of both the total sediment distribution and depth-integrated sediment concentration with high reliable results with an average R2 of 0.924.
The purpose of this study was to investigate older people's planning for estate distribution by examining the factors associated with their will-holding status. This study used data from the 1994 Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) Survey, Wave One. The objectives of this study were (a) to establish profiles of older people who have a written will and to compare their financial portfolios across will-holding status; (b) to identify factors that influence the decision to make a will, and (c) to draw implications for family economists, financial educators, planners, and policy makers. The results suggested that a household's financial resources (i.e., liquid and illiquid assets, housing equity, and household income) positively influence the probability of having a will. Older people who resided in a community property state and who were in poor health were less likely to be will-holders than their counterparts, holding financial resources and other variables constant. Demographic characteristics such as age, education, and race, and behavioral characteristic also were significant determinants of the likelihood of having a will. Volunteer participation and charitable contribution, which are proxies for altruism, increased the likelihood of having a will. The probability of having a will also was higher among those who had life insurance and had gwen inter-vivos gifts of more than $\$5,000$ to their children or grandchildren in the past 10 years. On the other hand, the likelihood of having a will declined with increasing number of biological children. From the findings, implications for financial planners and educators were suggested along with directions for future research.
Objectives : Periodic limb movements during sleep (PLMS) may cause arousals that may lead to non-restorative sleep. PLMS is characterized by long sleep latency, sleep fragmentation, frequent stage shifts, and rarity of stages 3/4 NREM sleep on polysomnography. However, controversies have existed and it still remains to be elaborated whether PLMS actually causes insomnia, since normal persons happen to have PLMS. Clinically, it would be crucial to know factors which might disturb sleep in PLMS. We became interested in Coleman's theory(1980) that invariant periodic movements disturb patients' sleep less. Though, Coleman's study seems to have been confounded by including PLMS patients with various co-morbid sleep disorders. Therefore, we attempted to study in patients only with PLMS the effects of movement patterns on sleep architecture. Methods : In 27 patients diagnosed as having PLMS only with clinical interview and nocturnal polysomnography, we studied the relationship between the movement patterns such as mean duration and variability of periodic limb movement's interval and the sleep architecture variables. Results : The shorter and the more regular the limb movement intervals were, the fewer arousals followed. The movement intervals of the older patients were shorter and more regular than the younger patients. The probability of the accompanying arousal with each limb movement increased as the duration and variance of the movement intervals increased. It decreased as the age and the frequency of limb movements increased. Among these factors the most significant one was the mean duration of the movement intervals. In other words, the shorter the movement intervals were, the less disturbed sleep was. Conclusion : PLMS frequency increases with aging but the probability of the accompanying arousal with each movement decreases with aging. Sleep-disturbing effects of PLMS depends more on the duration and variability of movement intervals than the PLMS frequency.
The user interface is a very important factor in application usability. The user interface of a typical application has a navigation system and the selection of the item takes place to move the movement. In this study, we would like to see if there are differences in user satisfaction depending on the location of the navigation and the number of items. The methods of in this study, a random group of 135 adult men and women who randomly selected four to six items as independent variables was conducted on the top, bottom, side, and three locations of navigation in a typical application. As a result, the navigation system rejected the null hypothesis of 0.000 and 0.008 respectively, with a significant probability of 0.05 or less than 0.000 and 0.008, respectively. It was also confirmed that the study theory of whether the interaction of navigation location and number of items creates a difference in satisfaction was significant with a significant probability of 0.016. In the post-analysis (Schefe), there were significant differences in the position of navigation, as each group was classified as a new group at the top <bottom <, and in the number of items, there were significant differences between the two groups of six <4 . Conclusion of this research, depending on the results of some significant differences in satisfaction with the location of the navigation and the number of items, it can be seen that the satisfaction of the interface increases when the navigation position is located at the bottom. However, follow-up research is needed on whether side-type navigation is suitable for different mobile sizes.
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