• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of pipe failure

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A Prediction Method of the Gas Pipeline Failure Using In-line Inspection and Corrosion Defect Clustering (In-line Inspection과 부식결함 클러스터링을 이용한 가스배관의 고장예측)

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;Choe, Byung Hak;Kim, Woosik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.651-656
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    • 2014
  • Corrosion has a significant influence upon the reliability assessment and the maintenance planning of gas pipeline. Corrosion defects occurred on the underground pipeline can be obtained by conducting periodic in-line inspection (ILI). However, little study has been done for practical use of ILI data. This paper deals with remaining lifetime prediction of the gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline parameter includes uncertainty in its operation, a probabilistic approach is adopted in this paper. A pipeline fails when its operating pressure is larger than the pipe failure pressure. In order to estimate the failure probability, this paper uses First Order Reliability Method (FORM) which is popular in the field of structural engineering. A well-known Battelle code is chosen as the computational model for the pipe failure pressure. This paper develops a Matlab GUI for illustrating failure probability predictions Our result indicates that clustering of corrosion defects is helpful for improving a prediction accuracy and preventing an unnecessary maintenance.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Fatigue Life in High Frequency Electric Resistance Welded Joint of the Pipe (고주파 전기저항용접부 강관에서의 피로수명의 확률론적 평가)

  • Seo, Young-Bum;Kim, Choong-Myeong;Kim, Chul-Su;Kim, Jung-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.400-405
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    • 2004
  • In this study, the optimal welding condition of the input power was selected experimentally through the ERW simulator, which is equal to welding status of ERW part in pipe. This condition is the input power 250kW in the heat treatment of the $900^{\circ}C$ normalizing derived from the nondestructive technique and impact energy. In order to evaluate the variation of the fatigue life in the pipe, fatigue surface crack growth test of base and optimal welded metal were performed statistically. As stress intensity factor range (${\Delta}K_s$) increases, the fatigue crack propagation rate (da/aN) of the base metal is faster than that of the welded joint. The variation of the fatigue life in the ERW pipe was estimated statistically using Monte-Carlo simulation with the standard deviation of material constants (C and m) of the paris law in the specimen.

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Countermeasure on High Vibration of Branch Pipe with Pressure Pulsation Transmitted from Main Steam Header (주증기 배관 헤더의 압력맥동에 대한 분기 배관의 고진동 대책)

  • Kim, Yeon-Whan;Bae, Yong-Chae;Lee, Young-Shin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.15 no.8 s.101
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    • pp.988-995
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    • 2005
  • Vibration has been severly increased at the branch pipe of main steam header since the commercial operation of nuclear power plant. Intense broad band disturbance flow at the discontinuous region such as elbow, valve, and header generates the acoustical pulsation which is propagated through the piping system. The pulsation becomes the source of low frequency vibration at piping system. If it coincide with natural frequency of the pipe system, excessive vibration is made. High level vibration due to the pressure pulsation related to high dynamic stress, and ultimately, to failure probability affects fatally the reliability and confidence of plant piping system. This paper discusses vibration effect for the branch pipe system due to acoustical pulsations by broad band disturbance flow at the large main steam header in 700 MW nuclear power plant. The exciting sources and response of the piping system are investigated by using on-site measurements and analytical approaches. It is identified that excessive vibration is caused by acoustical pulsations of 1.3 Hz, 4.4 Hz and 6.6 Hz transmitted from main steam balance header, which are coincided with fundamental natural frequencies of the piping structure. The energy absorbing restraints with additional stiffness and damping factor were installed to reduce excessive vibration.

Vibration Effect for Branch Pipe System due to Main Steam Header Pulsation (주증기 배관 헤더의 맥동이 분기 배관에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Yeon-Whan;Bae, Yong-Chae;Lee, Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.780-785
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    • 2005
  • Vibration has been severly increased at the branch pipe of main steam header since the commercial operation of a nuclear power plant. Intense broad band disturbance flow at the discontinuous region such as elbow, valve or heather generates the acoustical pulsation which is propagated through the piping system. The pulsation becomes the source of low frequency vibration at piping system. If it coincide with natural frequency of the pipe system, excessive vibration is made. High level vibration due to the pressure pulsation related to high dynamic stress, and ultimately, to failure probability affects fatally the reliability and confidence of plant piping system. This paper discusses vibration effect for the branch pipe system due to acoustical pulsations by broad band disturbance flow at the large main steam header in 7nn nuclear power plant. The exciting sources and response or the piping system are investigated by using on site measurements and analytical approaches. It is identified that excessive vibration is caused by acoustical pulsations of 1.3Hz, 4.4Hz and 6.6Hz transferred from main steam header, which are coincided with fundamental natural frequencies of the piping structure. The energy absorbing restraints with additional stiffness were installed to reduce excessive vibration.

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A Segment-based Minimum Cutset Method for Estimating the Reliability of Water Distribution Systems (상수관망의 신뢰도 산정을 위한 Segment 기반의 Minimum Cutset 방법)

  • Jun, Hwan-Don;Park, Jae-Il;Baek, Chun-Woo;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.735-742
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    • 2007
  • In this study, a methodology which is based on segments and minimum outsets to estimate the reliability of a real water distribution system efficiently and accurately is suggested. The current reliability assessment models based on minimum cutset consider a pipe as only area impacted by a pipe failure which incurs underestimation of pipe failure impact. In contrary, the suggested methodology adopts "segment" and "unintended isolation" with the hydraulic pressure failure area to define the actual service interruption area in a water distribution system due to a pipe failure, which is different from the Previous reliability estimating methodologies. In addition, a minimum cutset is defined as a single segment incurring abnormal operating conditions and the success mode approach is used to account for the probability of multiple failure combinations of minimum outsets. The model considers numbers and locations of on-off valves when the service interruption area is defined. Once the methodology is applied to a real water distribution system, it is possible to define actual service interruption areas and using the defined areas, the reliability of the water distribution system is estimated reliably, compared with the previous reliability assessment methodologies.

Study on Seismic Fragility Analysis of Water Supply Facilities (상수도 시설물의 지진 취약도)

  • Lee, Changsoo;Shin, Deasub;Lee, Hodam
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2015
  • In this study, The failure of water supply facilities is categorized into two phases: functional failure and complete collapse. The fragility curve of water supply facilities under PGA has been developed for two loading cases: actual overseas earthquake and Korean artificial earthquake. The seismic fragility of water supply facilities has been analyzed and compared about failure phases and PGA. From the analysis results, the probability of failure of the wrapped steel pipe and ductile case iron pipe under Korean artificial earthquake has been shown as lower than that under actual overseas earthquake in the range from 0.1 to 0.4. The suggested seismic fragility curve by using Korean artificial earthquake can be exploited in a reasonable seismic design reflecting Korean local ground condition.

Sewer CCTV Inspection Prioritization Based on Risk Assessment (위험도 기반의 하수관로 CCTV 조사 우선순위 결정 연구)

  • Son, Jooyoung;Lee, Jaehyun;Oh, Jeill
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.585-592
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    • 2017
  • Most sewer lines buried in the city are likely to be collapsed due to serious aging. Also, due to the high concentration of development and high population density and traffic, the collapse of the sewer will cause enormous social and economic damage. Therefore, proactive maintenance is required to prevent accidents caused by deteriorated sewer pipe. In order to utilize limited budget effectively, risk-based prioritization methods should be proposed that simultaneously consider the consequence of failure and the probability of failure. In this study, the method of risk-based prioritization of sewer was examined by reviewing various cases of overseas studies and applied to the urban sub-catchment. First, the impact factors that can be secured through the sewer GIS DB in Seoul were derived, and the weight, sub-criteria, and impact score of each impact factor were determined and the consequence of failure was calculated by weight sum method. In addition, the probability of failure was calculated by dividing the service life by the estimated useful life, and the consequence of failure and the probability of failure were classified into five grades by the Jenks natural breaks classification method. The prioritization method was applied to sub-catchment in the Seoul to derive a risk matrix and a risk grade. As a result, 26% of all subjects were selected as the inspection priority subjects with 4-5 risk grade. Therefore, using the risk-based CCTV prioritization methodology, it will be possible to systematically determine the objects that need investigation first.

Mechanical Behavior of Steel Pipe Pin-Cups Embedded in Concrete (콘크리트에 매입된 강관 핀컵의 역학적 거동)

  • Jo, Jae Byung;Im, Seok Bean
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.16 no.5 s.72
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    • pp.705-712
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    • 2004
  • To investigate the mechanical behavior of pin cups created from steel pipes embedded in concrete, test blocks were made and load tests were conducted. The pin was inserted in the pin cup at various depths and was loaded in a lateral direction at a constant displacement speed. A formula, which took into consideration the deformation and failure shapes of the pin cups, observed during and after the tests, was used to estimate its mechanical behavior. The test values were determined to be relevant to the formula and were distributed within a reasonably narrow range. The mean and the 95% survival probability value of maximum resistance were determined by factoring the formula at 1.01 and 0.92, respectively.

Reliability-Based Structural Integrity Assessment of Wall-Thinned Pipes Using Partial Safety Factor (부분안전계수를 이용한 감육배관의 신뢰도 기반 건전성 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Bin;Huh, Nam-Su;Park, Chi-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3_1spc
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    • pp.518-524
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    • 2013
  • Recently, probabilistic assessments of nuclear power plant components have generated interest in the nuclear industries, either for the efficient inspection and maintenance of older nuclear plants or for improving the safety and cost-effective design of newly constructed nuclear plants. In the present paper, the partial safety factor (PSF) of wall-thinned nuclear piping is evaluated based on a reliability index method, from which the effect of each statistical variable (assessment parameter) on a certain target probability is evaluated. In order to calculate the PSF of a wall-thinned pipe, a limit state function based on the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) concept is first constructed. As for the reliability assessment method, both the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method and second-order reliability method (SORM) are employed to determine the PSF of each probabilistic variable. The present results can be used for developing maintenance strategies considering the priorities of input variables for structural integrity assessments of wall-thinned piping, and this PSF concept can also be applied to the optimal design of the components of newly constructed plants considering the target reliability levels.

A Study on the Safety Improvement of Buried Pipeline Using Scoring Model (Scoring Model을 이용한 매설배관 안전성 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Myoung-Duck;Kim, Sung-Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2017
  • As the gas is manufactured, handled and used more often due to the continuous increase of gas, the related facility gets expanded and more complex causing small and big accident which causes economic loss including damage for humans and materials. The gas pipeline, the most common gas facility, has the biggest risk of accidents. Especially in the urban area and densely populated areas, the accident due to the high pressure pipeline may cause even more serious damages. To prevent the accident caused by the buried pipeline, it is required for the relevant authorities to evaluate the damage and risk of the whole pipeline system effectively. A risk is usually defined as a possibility or probability of an undesired event happening, and there is always a risk even when the probability of failure is set low once the pipeline is installed or under operation. It is reported that the accident caused by the failure of the pipeline rarely happens, however, it is important to minimize the rate of accidents by analyzing the reason of failure as it could cause a huge damage of humans and property. Therefore, the paper rated the risk of pipelines with quantitative numbers using the qualitative risk analysis method of the Scoring Model. It is assumed that the result could be effectively used for practical maintenance and management of pipelines securing the safety of the pipes.