• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.979-999
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• 2015

This paper proposes a novel reliability analysis method which computes reliability index, most probable point and probability of failure of uncertain systems more efficiently and accurately with compared to Monte Carlo, first-order reliability and response surface methods. It consists of Initial and Simulation steps. In Initial step, a number of space-filling designs are selected throughout the variables space, and then in Simulation step, performances of most of samples are estimated via interpolation using the space-filling designs, and only for a small number of the samples actual performance function is used for evaluation. In better words, doing so, we use a simple interpolation function called "reduced" function instead of the actual expensive-to-evaluate performance function of the system to evaluate most of samples. By using such a reduced function, total number of evaluations of actual performance is significantly reduced; hence, the method can be called Reduced Function Evaluations method. Reliabilities of six examples including series and parallel systems with multiple failure modes with truncated and/or non-truncated random variables are analyzed to demonstrate efficiency, accuracy and robustness of proposed method. In addition, a reliability-based design optimization algorithm is proposed and an example is solved to show its good performance.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권3호
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• pp.846-854
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• 2024

FEMAXI-ATF is being developed for fuel performance modeling of SiC cladded UO2 fuel with focuses on modeling pellet-cladding mechanical interactions (PCMI). The code considers probability distributions of mechanical strengths of monolithic SiC (mSiC) and SiC fiber reinforced SiC matrix composite (SiC/SiC), while it models pseudo-ductility of SiC/SiC and propagation of cladding failures across the wall thickness direction in deterministic manner without explicitly modeling cracks based on finite element method in one-dimensional geometry. Some hypothetical BWR power ramp conditions were used to test sensitivities of different model parameters on the analyzed PCMI behavior. The results showed that propagation of the cladding failure could be modeled by appropriately reducing modulus of elasticities of the failed wall element, so that the mechanical load of the failed element could be re-distributed to other intact elements. The probability threshold for determination of the wall element failure did not have large influence on the predicted power at failure when the threshold was varied between 25 % and 75 %. The current study is still limited with respect to mechanistic modeling of SiC failure as it only models the propagation of the cladding wall element failure across the homogeneous continuum wall without considering generations and propagations of cracks.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제17권32호
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• pp.227-232
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• 1994

In the performance domain, physical performance is a measure that represents some degree of system, subsystem, component or device success in a continuous sense, as opposed to a classical binomial sense (success or failure). If applicable sensing and monitoring means exist, physical performance can be observed over time, along with explanatory variables or covariables. Performance-based reliability represents the probability that performance will remain satisfactory over a finite period of time or usage cycles in the future when a performance critical limit (which represents an appropriate definition of failure in terms of performance) is set at a fixed level, based on application requirements. In the case of inadequate knowledge of the failure mechanics, this physical based empirical modeling concept along with performance degradation knowledge can serve as an important analysis tool in reliability work in product and process improvement.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.2401-2406
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• 2015

배관은 대형기계설비에서 다양한 작동유체를 운반하는데 사용되는데, 대형시스템의 성능을 유지하기 위해서는 부식된 배관의 잔존 수명을 정확히 예측될 필요가 있다. 하지만, 배관 형상, 물성치, 부식률 등 배관의 수명에 영향을 미치는 요인들의 불확실성이 크기 때문에 부식 잔존 수명을 정확히 예측하기 힘들다. 본 연구에서는 통계적인 접근방법인 베이지안 추론법을 이용하여 부식 잔존 수명을 예측하는 방법을 제안하였다. 여기서, 배관의 파손 확률은 베이지안 법칙을 기반으로 시간에 따른 배관 파손 압력에 관한 사전 정보와 실험데이터를 이용하여 계산되고, 부식 잔존 수명은 10%의 파손 확률을 갖는 경과시간으로 계산되었다. 예제에서는 부식에 영향을 미치는 주요인자로부터 10개와 50개의 데이터를 생성하여 배관의 파손 확률 및 배관의 잔존수명을 예측하였으며 가정한 실제 잔존수명과의 비교를 통해 제안한 방법을 검증하였다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 제37회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.196-197
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• 2006

Preventive maintenance can avail the generation utilities to reduce cost and gain more profit in a competitive supply-side power market. So, it is necessary to perform reliability analysis on the systems in which reliability is essential. In this paper, RCM (Reliability -Centered Maintenance) analytical method is adopted using real historical failure data in Korean power plants. Therefore, the reliability -based Probability model for predicting the failures of components in the power plant is also established, and application to FMECA(Failure Mode Effects and Critical Analysis) consideration of failure probability, Based on the weighting ranking of generating equipments which status to be probability estimation by FMECA. The FMECA is an engineering analysis and a core activity performed by reliability engineers to review the effects of probable failure modes of generating equipments and assemblies of the power system on system performance. The results of this paper show that application of FMECA with stochastic approach to the preventive maintenance can efficiently avail decreasing the cost on maintenance and hence improve the total benefit.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권8호
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• pp.2915-2923
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• 2022

There is an increasing interest in passive safety systems to minimize the need for operator intervention or external power sources in nuclear power plants. Because a passive system has a weak driving force, there is greater uncertainty in the performance compared with an active system. In previous studies, several methods have been suggested to evaluate passive system reliability, and many of them estimated the failure probability using thermal-hydraulic analyses and the Monte Carlo method. However, if the functional failure of a passive system is rare, it is difficult to estimate the failure probability using conventional methods owing to their high computational time. In this paper, a procedure for the application of the Chernoff bound to the evaluation of passive system reliability is proposed. A feasibility study of the procedure was conducted on a passive decay heat removal system of a micro modular reactor in its conceptual design phase, and it was demonstrated that the passive system reliability can be evaluated without performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic analyses or Monte Carlo simulations when the system has a small failure probability. Accordingly, the advantages and constraints of applying the Chernoff bound for passive system reliability evaluation are discussed in this paper.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제10D권5호
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• pp.829-836
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• 2003

소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델은 다양하게 연구되어져 있다. 그러나 이러한 모델에서 정확한 모수를 측정하는 것은 그리 쉽지 않다. 특히 고장 데이터에 대하여 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델의 추정이 정확히 이루어져야만 모델을 설명하는 모수의 추정도 정확하게 이루어질 수 있다. 이러한 측면에서 테스팅을 통해서 얻어진 소프트웨어의 고장 데이터의 정규확률점수를 구해서 두 개의 값에 대한 플롯을 그려보고 그려진 결과를 이용해서 분포를 예측하여 예측된 분포에 적합한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델을 적용한다면 상당히 정확한 테스팅 결과론 얻을 수 있을 것이다. 본 논문에서는 고장 테이터의 플롯을 통한 결과를 통해서 분포를 예측하고 모델을 성능평가 척도에 따라서 모의실험을 하여 그 결과를 통해서 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델의 적합성을 검정하는 연구이다. 연구결과 고장데이터의 정규점수를 이용한 플롯을 보고 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델을 예측할 수 있었고 이러한 예측을 통해서 모델 선정한다면 모델의 성능평가에서도 우수함을 확인할 수 있다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2022

This paper introduces a novel, rigorous, and efficient probabilistic methodology for the performance-based optimal design (PBOD) of semi-active tuned mass damper (SATMD) for seismically excited nonlinear structures. The proposed methodology is consistent with the modern performance-based earthquake engineering framework and aims to design reliable control systems. To this end, an optimization problem has been defined which considers the parameters of control systems as design variables and minimization of the probability of exceeding a targeted structural performance level during the lifetime as an objective function with a constraint on the failure probability of stroke length damage state associated with mass damper mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a numerical example of performance analysis of an eight-story nonlinear shear building frame with hysteretic bilinear behavior. The SATMD with variable stiffness and damping have been designed separately with different mass ratios. Their performance has been compared with that of uncontrolled structure and the structure controlled with passive TMD in terms of probabilistic demand curves, response hazard curves, fragility curves, and exceedance probability of performance levels during the lifetime. Numerical results show the effectiveness, simplicity, and reliability of the proposed PBOD method in designing SATMD with variable stiffness and damping for the nonlinear frames where they have reduced the exceedance probability of the structure up to 49% and 44%, respectively.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제33권1_2호
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• pp.211-217
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• 2015

A dynamic spectrum access scheme with channel partitioning for secondary handover calls in cognitive radio networks is proposed to reduce forced termination probability due to spectrum handover failure. A continuous-time Markov chain method for evaluating its performance such as blocking probability, forced termination probability, and throughput is presented. Numerical and simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme with channel partitioning.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.33-43
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• 1998

To evaluate the server performance and forecast capacity requirements, we carry out simulation of Multimedia-on-demand(MOD) server. In multimedia service environment, especially for on-demand service, one of the key problems is capacity planning, which requires ensuring that adequate computer resources will be available to meet the future workload demands in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we design and implement a simulation model for MOD server with failures of components (e.g., processors, disks and networks). By acquisition of utilization and queue length parameters, we can estimate desirable capacity of server components with various arrival rates of customers and failure rates of components. For a given failure probability, we also compute packet delay probability and reliability of the server. It is possible to derive some important design information of the MOD server by using the above parameters.