• Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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• 제1권4호
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• pp.266-271
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• 2014

The survivability of the naval ship is the capability of a warship to avoid or withstand a hostile environment. The survivability of the naval ship assessed by three categories (susceptibility, vulnerability and recoverability). The magnitude of susceptibility of a warship encountering with threat is dependent upon the attributes of detection equipment and weapon system. In this paper, as a part of a naval ship's survivability analysis, an assessment process model for the ship's susceptibility analysis technique is developed. Naval ship's survivability emphasizing the susceptibility is assessed by the probability of detection, and the probability of hit. Considering the radar cross section (RCS), the assessment procedure for the susceptibility is described. It's emphasizing the simplified calculation model based on the probability density function for probability of hit. Assuming the probability of hit given a both single-hit and multiple-hit, the susceptibility is accessed for a RCS and the hit probability for a rectangular target is applied for a given threat.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.160-168
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• 1999

This research focussed on developing a hit probability model for polygonal target to increase the survivability of weapon systems by its shape design. First, we defined the delivery errors and derived functions for these errors based on the assumption of bivariate normal distribution, and the derived functions for probability of shot hitting of various shapes of polygonal target. Also, we developed computer program for computation of the probability of hitting a general n-sided polygon and we have shown a sample run output. The model could be used to improve the survivability from design phase by designing optimal polygonal shape of weapon system.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.76-87
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• 2001

The effect of variable hit probabilities in the stochastic duel are examined. The objective of this study is to evaluate the outcomes of combat under the situations which we assume either round dependent hit probabilities or time dependent hit probabilities. Due to the complexity of an analytic approach to large-sized battles, a simulation modeling technique has been introduced. several specific examples are demonstrated fire allocation strategies. Output measures are compared among cases each with its own type of hit probability fashion such as constant, round to round, or time dependent manners. For these specific cases, the advantages of round to round improvement or increasing function of time for the hit probability are displayed.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.35-48
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• 2018

북한의 전술탄도미사일(TBM, tactical ballistic missile)에 대한 방공 분야 연구는 빠른 속도로 변화하는 전장 환경을 고려해야 한다. 아군 유도탄의 표적 재지정 연구는 동적인 전장에 대한 대응뿐만 아니라 아군 방어 자산의 효과적인 운용을 가능하게 한다. 현재까지 진행된 연구는 의사 결정 과정에서 중요한 역할을 하는 TBM의 명중 확률이 고정된 값이기 때문에 실시간 전장 상황을 대변하지 못한다. 따라서 본 연구는 실시간 전장 환경을 고려한 명중 확률을 기반으로 의사 결정을 내리는 표적 재지정 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안 방법론은 랜덤 포레스트와 무빙윈도우(moving window) 기법을 사용하여 현재 TBM의 위치 및 속도 정보로 TBM의 예상 궤적을 예측하는 궤적 예측 모형을 포함한다. 예상 명중 확률은 궤적 예측 모형과 유도탄의 시뮬레이터를 통해서 계산할 수 있으며, 계산된 명중 확률은 유도탄에 대한 표적 재지정 알고리즘의 의사결정 기준이 된다. 실험에서는 TBM 궤적 예측 모형에 사용한 방법론의 타당성이 검증되었으며, 표적 재지정 의사 결정 과정에서 제안된 모델을 통해 명중 확률을 사용하는 것의 우수성이 확인되었다.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.1040-1048
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• 2016

최근 전투 시스템의 신뢰도를 분석하는 것에 대한 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있으며, 특히 선행 연구의 한계점을 보완하기 위한 연구와 보다 통합적인 분석에 관한 연구의 필요성이 강조되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 선행 연구에서 분석된 전면과 측면의 피격 확률을 활용하여 시간-효율성을 향상시키기 위한 통합 피격 확률 도출 기법을 제안한다. 또한 도출된 통합 피격 확률을 기반으로 각 구성 요소의 신뢰도를 구하고, 전체 전투 시스템의 기능별 신뢰도를 분석하기 위하여 RBD 기법을 적용하는 방법을 제안한다. 전차 모델에 적용하여 신뢰도 분석을 수행하였으며, 이를 통해 제안하는 방법의 유용성을 검증하였다. 제안하는 방법은 선행 연구에서는 고려되지 않았던 승무원까지도 고려하며, 분석된 기능별 신뢰도는 선행 연구 대비 분석의 정확도 및 시간-효율성을 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.81-117
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• 1981

Mathematical models for hit probabilities of small arms are developed in order to estimate the expected hits on an aircraft for certain altitudes and air speeds. A model for the firing lead angle is developed for cases when the distribution of hits is normal and the firing angle is from 20 degrees to 160 degrees. probabilities of hit for single and multiple shots at various altitudes are calculated. Tables are given showing the probability of hits and kill for targets flying at high speed above 500 feet from ground level.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.12-19
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• 2006

A gun barrel of infantry fighting vehicle is supported like a type of cantilever. Temperature of a gun barrel is increased by heat transfer due to the combustion of propellant charge during the firing. Thus, the muzzle of a gun barrel is deflected in accordance with its temperature and the accuracy rate is decreased by deflection of the muzzle. In this study, deflection of a gun barrel is estimated by measuring its restoration rate because measuring the deflection rate is difficult due to the vibration of the gun barrel during the firing. In order to obtain the relations between deflection rate and restoration rate of the 40mm gun barrel of Next Infantry Fighting Vehicle(NIFV) under varying temperature, measurement of deflection rate and restoration rate is carried out using 5.56mm Remington rifle barrel. Effect of the estimated deflection rate of a gun barrel of NIFV on the hit probability is also analyzed.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.218-226
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• 2016

In the original design of K2 tank the Vertical Sensor Unit(VSU) was mounted to measure the attitude of the main gun to enhance the hit probability. In this research, as a part of efforts to reduce the cost of K2, it was theoretically simulated and evaluated to use the data from Inertial Navigation System(INS) for the calculation of the gun attitude instead of the direct measurement using VSU. It was found that the negative effect of INS approach is negligible and the elimination of VSU is technically possible and beneficial to the system.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.143-152
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• 2008

미래전에 있어서, 전투 초기단계의 대화력전 능력은 적을 무력화 시키는데 핵심역할을 수행한다. 본 논문에서는 효율적인 대화력전 수행방안을 제안하였다. 이를 위해, CEP를 사용한 명중확률을 산출한 후 대화력전 작전시 활용 가능한 새로운 사격제원 계산에 적용하였다. 새로운 표적제원의 타당성 검증을 위해 MANA 모델을 사용하여 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. UAV 운용여부 등을 포함한 다양한 시나리오 상황 하에서 시뮬레이션 수행 결과, 새로운 사격제원산출 방법을 사용한 명중률이 기존의 BTCS 사격제원에 의한 명중률 보다 우수한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.19-35
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• 2019

This study investigates the performance of four Bayesian methods, Random Walk Metropolis (RWM), Hit-And-Run Metropolis (HARM), Adaptive Mixture Metropolis (AMM), and Population Monte Carlo (PMC), for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution, and the results are compared with those of conventional parameter estimation methods; namely, the Method Of Moment (MOM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), and Probability Weighted Method (PWM). As a result, Bayesian methods yield similar or slightly better results in parameter estimations compared with conventional methods. In particular, PMC can reduce parameter uncertainty greatly compared with RWM, HARM, and AMM methods although the Bayesian methods produce similar results in parameter estimations. Overall, the Bayesian methods produce better accuracy for scale parameters compared with the conventional methods and this characteristic improves the accuracy of probability rainfall. Therefore, Bayesian methods can be effective tools for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution in hydrological practices, flood risk assessment, and decision-making support.