• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Exceedance

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Analysis of the Outdoor Design Conditions for Greenhouse Heating and Cooling Systems in Korea (온실의 냉난방시스템 설계용 외부기상조건 분석)

  • Nam, Sang-Woon;Shin, Hyun-Ho
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.308-319
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    • 2016
  • In order to set the outdoor weather conditions to be applied to the design standard of the greenhouse heating and cooling system, outdoor air temperature and heating degree-hour for heating design, dry bulb temperature, wet bulb temperature and solar irradiance for cooling design were analyzed and presented. For every region in Korea, we used thirty years from 1981 to 2010 hourly weather data for analysis, which is the current standard of climatological normal provided by KMA. Since the use of standard weather data is limited, design weather conditions were obtained using the entire weather data for 30 years, and the average value of the entire data period was presented as a design standard. The design weather data with exceedance probability of 1, 2.5, and 5% were analyzed by the TAC method, and we presented the distribution map with exceedance probability of 1% for heating and 2.5% for cooling which are recommended by design standards. The changes of maximum heating load, seasonal heating load and maximum cooling load were examined by regions, exceedance probabilities, and setpoint temperatures. The proposed outdoor design conditions can be used not only directly for the greenhouse heating and cooling design, but also for the reinforcement of heating and cooling facilities and the establishment of energy saving measures. Recently, due to the climate change, sweltering heat in summer and abnormal temperature in winter are occurring frequently, so we need to analyze weather data periodically and revise the design standard at least every 10 years cycle.

The effect of different earthquake ground motion levels on the performance of steel structures in settlements with different seismic hazards

  • Isik, Ercan;Karasin, ibrahim Baran;Karasin, Abdulhalim
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.84 no.1
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2022
  • The updated Turkish Building Earthquake Code has been significantly renovated and expanded compared to previous seismic design codes. The use of earthquake ground motion levels with different probabilities of exceedance is one of the major advances in structural mechanics with the current code. This study aims to investigate the earthquake performance of steel structure in settlements with different seismic hazards for various earthquake ground motion levels. It is focused on earthquake and structural parameters for four different ground motion levels with different probabilities of exceedance calculated according to the location of the structure by the updated Turkish Hazard Map. For this purpose, each of the seven different geographical regions of Turkey which has the same seismic zone in the previous earthquake hazard map has been considered. Earthquake parameters, horizontal design elastic spectra obtained and comparisons were made for all different ground motion levels for the seven different locations, respectively. Structural analyzes for a sample steel structure were carried out using pushover analysis by using the obtained design spectra. It has been determined that the different ground motion levels significantly affect the expected target displacements of the structure for performance criteria. It is noted that the different locations of the same earthquake zone in the previous code with the same earthquake-building parameters show significant variations due to the micro zoning properties of the updated seismic design code. In addition, the main innovations of the updated code were discussed.

GENERATION OF AN IMPERVIOUS MAP BY APPLYING TASSELED-CAP ENHANCEMENT USING KOMPSAT-2 IMAGE

  • Koh, Chang-Hwan;Ha, Sung-Ryong
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.378-381
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    • 2008
  • The regulating and relaxing targets in the Land Use Regulation and Total Maximum Daily Loads are influenced by Land cover information. For the providing more accurate land information, this study attempted to generate an impervious surface map using KOMPSAT-2 image which a Korea manufactured high resolution satellite image. The classification progress of this study carried out by tasseled-cap spectral enhancement through each class extraction technique neither existing classification method. KOMPSAT-2 image of this study is enhanced by Soil Brightness Index(SBI), Green vegetation Index(GVI), None-Such wetness Index(NWI). Then ranges of extracted each index in enhanced image are determined. And then, Confidence Interval of classes was determined through the calculating Non-exceedance Probability. Spectral distributions of each class are changed according to changing of Control coefficient(${\alpha}$) at the calculated Non-exceedance Probability. Previously, Land cover classification map was generated based on established ranges of classes, and then, pervious and impervious surface was reclassified. Finally, impervious ratio of reclassified impervious surface map was calculated with blocks in the study area.

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A Study on the Characteristics of the Parameters for the Statistical Analysis of Vibration Signal by Using Bearing Wear Test (베어링 마모시험을 이용한 진동신호의 통계적 파라미터 특성연구)

  • Jun, Oh-Sung;Hwang, Cheol-Ho;Yoon, Byung-Ok;Eun, Hee-Joon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 1989
  • This paper is concerned with the characteristics on the statistical parameters of vibration signal from bearing with changing its operating conditions as well as the spreading of faults. The rms, Kurtosis, crest factor, probability of exceedance and probability density function have been chose as the statistical parameters. To characterize of each, vibration signals have been recorded from four ball tester at different loads, operation speeds and time. The values of the statistical parameters for each frequency band have been calculated after A/D conversion and digital filtering of the recorded signals. It has been found that unlike rms values the statistical parameters such as Kurtosis etc. are almost unchanging with the change of the operating conditions such as load and speed. This suggests that the statistical parameters may be used for determining the development of faults independent of the operating conditions. In fact, the statistical parameters deviate considerably from their respective normal values when the faults developed under load conditions in the samples, conforming the suggestion.

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Seismic microzonation of Kolkata

  • Shiuly, Amit;Sahu, R.B.;Mandal, Saroj
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.125-144
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents the probabilistic seismic microzonation of densely populated Kolkata city, situated on the world's largest delta island with very soft alluvial soil deposit. At first probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Kolkata city was carried out at bedrock level and then ground motion amplification due to sedimentary deposit was computed using one dimensional (1D) wave propagation analysis SHAKE2000. Different maps like fundamental frequency, amplification at fundamental frequency, peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground displacement (PGD), maximum response spectral acceleration at different time period bands are developed for variety of end users, structural and geotechnical engineers, land use planners, emergency managers and awareness of general public. The probabilistically predicted PGA at bedrock level is 0.12 g for 50% exceedance in 50 years and maximum PGA at surface level it varies from 0.095 g to 0.18 g for same probability of exceedance. The scenario of simulated ground motion revealed that Kolkata city is very much prone to damage during earthquake.

Minimum Period of Data Collection for the Determination of Average Water Pressure in the Water Distribution Networks (배수구역의 평균수압결정을 위한 최소수압측정기간)

  • Hyun, In-Hwaan;DockKo, Seok;Kim, Duck-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.573-580
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    • 2010
  • Average pressure in a pipe network is one of critical factors to estimate the flow distribution and to calculate UARL (Unavoidable Annual Real Losses) value in ILI (Infrastructure Leakage Index). While its collection period and measuring location are essential to obtain average pressure, their standard method have not been established so far. In this study, proper method including its procedure for data collection period and measuring point for average pressure were suggested using non-exceedance probability concept in the water distribution network.

Estimation of drought risk through the bivariate drought frequency analysis using copula functions (코플라 함수를 활용한 이변량 가뭄빈도해석을 통한 우리나라 가뭄 위험도 산정)

  • Yu, Ji Soo;Yoo, Ji Young;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tea-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2016
  • The drought is generally characterized by duration and severity, thus it is required to conduct the bivariate frequency analysis simultaneously considering the drought duration and severity. However, since a bivariate joint probability distribution function (JPDF) has a 3-dimensional space, it is difficult to interpret the results in practice. In order to suggest the technical solution, this study employed copula functions to estimate an JPDF, then developed conditional JPDFs on various drought durations and estimated the critical severity corresponding to non-exceedance probability. Based on the historical severe drought events, the hydrologic risks were investigated for various extreme droughts with 95% non-exceedance probability. For the drought events with 10-month duration, the most hazardous areas were decided to Gwangju, Inje, and Uljin, which have 1.3-2.0 times higher drought occurrence probabilities compared with the national average. In addition, it was observed that southern regions were much higher drought prone areas than northern and central areas.

Seismic Collapse Risk for Non-Ductile Reinforced Concrete Buildings According to Seismic Design Categories (비연성 철근콘크리트 건물의 내진설계범주에 따른 붕괴 위험성 평가)

  • Kim, Minji;Han, Sang Whan;Kim, Taeo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.161-168
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    • 2021
  • Existing old reinforced concrete buildings could be vulnerable to earthquakes because they were constructed without satisfying seismic design and detail requirements. In current seismic design standards, the target collapse probability for a given Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) ground-shaking hazard is defined as 10% for ordinary buildings. This study aims to estimate the collapse probabilities of a three-story, old, reinforced concrete building designed by only considering gravity loads. Four different seismic design categories (SDC), A, B, C, and D, are considered. This study reveals that the RC building located in the SDC A region satisfies the target collapse probability. However, buildings located in SDC B, C, and D regions do not meet the target collapse probability. Since the degree of exceedance of the target probability increases with an increase in the SDC level, it is imminent to retrofit non-ductile RC buildings similar to the model building. It can be confirmed that repair and reinforcement of old reinforced concrete buildings are required.

Determination of epicenters and magnitudes of future earthquakes based on the historical earthquake catalogues (역사지진 기록을 기초로한 지진규모와 위치 예측 방법)

  • 권오성;한상환
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.323-330
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    • 2000
  • Three historical earthquake catalogues were compared with each other in the view of frequency of events per century, cumulative magnitude distribution, and annual earthquake occurrence rate in each unit grid of 0.1°by 0.1°. And, a method to determine earthquake epicenters and magnitudes was proposed given the historical earthquake data. With this method, the epicenters and magnitudes of future earthquakes in Korean penninsula for 1,000 years were generated with each earthquake catalogue. Earthquake PGAs with 10% exceedance probability in Seoul were calculated for each catalogue and compared.

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A Study on the Changes of Return Period Considering Nonstationarity of Rainfall Data (강우자료의 비정상성을 고려한 재현기간 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hongjoon;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.447-457
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    • 2014
  • This research focuses on the changes of return period for nonstationary rainfall data in which exceedance or nonexceedance probability varies depending on time. We examined two definitions of return period under nonstationarity and also performed nonstationary frequency analysis using the nonstationary Gumbel model to investigate variations of return period in Korea. Seogwipo, Inje, Jecheon, Gumi, Mungyeong, and Geochang were selected as subject sites of application. These sites have a trend in rainfall data as well as having more than 30 years data. As the results of application, the return periods considering nonstationarity are different with those considering stationarity. The differences of return periods between nonstationarity and stationarity increase as growing return period increases. In addition, the return period using the expected waiting time method shows lower value than that using the expected number of event method.