• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Detection Curve

Search Result 16, Processing Time 0.011 seconds

The Human Performance Degradation in Vigilance due to Prolonged and Monotonous Tasks (경계(警戒) 임무(任務) 담당자(擔當者)의 시간지연(時間遲延)에 따르는 인간(人間) 성능(性能)의 변화(變化)에 대(對)한 연구(硏究) 및 개선방안(改善方案))

  • Myun-Woo,Lee
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.27-34
    • /
    • 1974
  • This study is aimed at a validation of the vigilance simulation model which was proposed earlier (2). The model estimates a perceived danger value, an alertness level and the probability of detection at a given elapsed time of vigilance. Twenty-nine male and seven female subjects were given a simple task. They were asked to detect a number(four numbers out of six digits in the telephone directory which have the probability of occurrence in the range of 0.0010-0.0018) in six different experimental conditions, for periods of two to three hours. Analysis of the experiments showed that although the mean detection rate varied slightly in two hours, the within-subject variance and the number of cyclic performance fluctuations increased significantly. A primal factor that affects the performance seems to be the frequency of target occurrence. By curve fitting, the relation between the probability of detection and the percentages of danger event occurrence was derived; $y=0.50(1-{\varepsilon}^{-50x^2})+0.39$. Assuming the equation represents the normal detection rate(100% performance), the Relative Vigilance Performance Rating was calculated. This rating method could be a useful criterion in selecting and training of the vigilance personnel. The results show that the simulation model is a good estimator of human a performance when the probability of danger occurrence is greater than 0.0015; it gives a good reference for improving the vigilance system. Suggestions are made that (1) the validity of proposed functional equations over the extended range of danger probability be studied, (2) an analysis of the cyclic fluctuations of the alertness level be accomplished, and (3) the cost functions of detection reliability be included in any future model.

  • PDF

Integrated Model for Assessment of Risks in Rail Tracks under Various Operating Conditions

  • G. Chattopadhyay;V. Reddy;Larsson, P-O
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
    • /
    • v.4 no.4
    • /
    • pp.183-190
    • /
    • 2003
  • Rail breaks and derailments can cause a huge loss to rail players due to loss of service, revenue, property or even life. Maintenance has huge impact on reliability and safety of railroads. It is important to identify factors behind rail degradation and their risks associated with rail breaks and derailments. Development of mathematical models is essential for prediction and prevention of risks due to rail and wheel set damages, rail breaks and derailments. This paper addresses identification of hazard modes, estimation of probability of those hazards under operating, curve and environmental condition, probability of detection of potential hazards before happening and severity of those hazards for informed strategic decisions. Emphasis is put on optimal maintenance and operational decisions. Real life data is used for illustration.

  • PDF

Adaptive thresholding for eliminating noises in 2-DE image (2차원 전기영동 영상에서 잡영을 제거하기 위한 적응적인 문턱값 결정)

  • Choi, Kwan-Deok;Kim, Mi-Ae;Yoon, Young-Woo
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2008
  • One of the problems for implementing the spot detection phase in the 2-DE gel image analysis program is the eliminating noises in the image. Remained noises after the preprocessing phase cause the over-segmented regions by the segmentation phase. To identify and exclude the over-segmented background regions, if we use the fixed thresholding method that is choosing an intensity value for the threshold, the spots that is invisible by the eyes but mean a very small amount proteins which have important role in the biological samples could be eliminated. This paper propose an adaptive thresholding method that come from an idea that is got on statistical analysing for the prominences of the peaks. The adaptive thresholding method works as following. Firstly we calculate an average prominence value curve and fit it to exponential function curve, as a result we get parameters for the exponential function. And then we calculate a threshold value by using the parameters and probability distribution of errors. Lastly we apply the threshold value to the region for determining the region is a noise or not. According to the probability distribution of errors, the reliability is 99.85% and we show the correctness of the proposed method by representing experiment results.

  • PDF

Automatic Identification of the Lumen Border in Intravascular Ultrasound Images (혈관 내 초음파 영상에서 내강 경계면 자동 분할)

  • Park, Jun-Oh;Ko, Byoung-Chul;Park, Hee-Jun;Nam, Jae-Yeal
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
    • /
    • v.19B no.3
    • /
    • pp.201-208
    • /
    • 2012
  • Accurately segmenting lumen border in intravascular ultrasound images (IVUS) is very important to study vascular wall architecture for diagnosis of the cardiovascular diseases. After each of IVUS image is transformed to a polar coordinated image, initial points are detected using wavelet transform. Then, lumen border is initialized as the set of important points using non parametric probability density function and smoothing function by removing outlier initial points occurred by noises and artifacts. Finally, polynomial curve fitting is applied to obtain real lumen border using filtered important points. The evaluation of proposed method was performed with related method and the proposed method produced accurate lumen contour detection when compared to another method in most types of IVUS images.

Optimization of Link-level Performance and Complexity for the Floating-point and Fixed-point Designs of IEEE 802.16e OFDMA/TDD Mobile Modem (IEEE 802.16e OFDMA/TDD 이동국 모뎀의 링크 성능과 복잡도 최적화를 위한 부동 및 고정 소수점 설계)

  • Sun, Tae-Hyoung;Kang, Seung-Won;Kim, Kyu-Hyun;Chang, Kyung-Hi
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
    • /
    • v.43 no.11 s.353
    • /
    • pp.95-117
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper, we describe the optimization of the link-level performance and the complexity of floating-point and fixed-point methods in IEEE 802.16e OFDMA/TDD mobile modem. In floating-point design, we propose the channel estimation methods for downlink traffic channel and select the optimized method using computer simulation. So we also propose efficent algorithms for time and frequency synchronization, Digital Front End and CINR estimation scheme to optimize the system performance. Furthermore, we describe fixed-point method of uplink traffic and control channels. The superiority of the proposed algorithm is validated using the performances of Detection, False Alarm, Missing Probability and Mean Acquisition Time, PER Curve, etc. For fixed-point design, we propose an efficient methodology for optimized fixed-point design from floating-point At last, we design fixed-point of traffic channel, time and frequency synchronization, DFE block in uplink and downlink. The tradeoff between performance and complexity are optimized through computer simulations.

Estimation of the Number of Physical Flaws Using Effective POD (유효 POD를 이용한 물리적 결함 수의 추정)

  • Lee, Jae-Bong;Park, Jae-Hak;Kim, Hong-Deok;Chung, Han-Sub
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.21 no.4 s.76
    • /
    • pp.42-48
    • /
    • 2006
  • The strategies of maintenance and operation are usually established based on the number of flaws and their size distribution obtained from nondestructive inspection in order to preserve safety of the plant. But non destructive inspection results are different from the physical flaws which really exist in the equipments. In case of a single inspection, it is easy to estimate the number of physical flaws using the POD curve. However, we may be faced with some difficulties in obtaining the number of physical flaws from the periodic in-service non destructive inspection data. In this study a simple method for estimating the number of physical flaws from periodic in-service nondestructive inspection data was proposed. In order to obtain the flaw growth history, the flaw growth was simulated using the Monte Carlo method and the flaw size and the corresponding POD value were obtained for each flaw at each periodic inspection time. The flaw growth rate used in the simulation was statistically calculated from the in-service inspection data. By repeating the simulation numerous flaw growth data could be generated and the effective POD curve was obtained as a function of flaw size. From the effective POD curve the number of physical flaws was obtained. The usefulness and convenience of the proposed method was evaluated from several applications and satisfactory results were obtained.

Flood Alert and Warning Scheme Based on Intensity-Duration-Quantity (IDQ) Curve considering Antecedant Moisture Condition (선행함수지수를 고려한 강우강도-지속시간-홍수량(IDQ) 곡선기반의 홍수예경보기법)

  • Kim, Jin-Gyeom;Kang, Boosik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.35 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1269-1276
    • /
    • 2015
  • The methodology of utilizing Intensity-Duration-flood Quantity (IDQ) curve for flood alert and warning was introduced and its performance was evaluated. For this purpose the lumped parameter model was calibrated and validated for gauged basin data set and the index precipitation equivalent to alert and warning flood was estimated. The index precipitation and IDQ curves associated by three different Antecedant Moisture Conditions (AMCs) are made provision for various possible flood scenarios. The test basin is Wonju-cheon basin ($94.4km^2$) located in Gangwon province, Korea. The IDQ curves corresponding to alert (50% of design flood level) and warning (70% of design flood level) level was estimated using the Clark unit hydrograph based lumped parameter model. The performance evaluation showed 0.704 of POD (Probability of Detection), 0.136 of FAR (False Alarm Ratio), and 0.633 of CSI (Critical Success Index), which is improved from the result of IDQ with single fixed AMC.

Development of the Korean Peninsula-Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance (KP-KTG) System Using the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (기상청 고해상도 지역예보모델을 이용한 한반도 영역 한국형 항공난류 예측시스템(한반도-KTG) 개발)

  • Lee, Dan-Bi;Chun, Hye-Yeong
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.367-374
    • /
    • 2015
  • Korean Peninsula has high potential for occurrence of aviation turbulence. A Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) system focused on the Korean Peninsula, named Korean-Peninsula KTG (KP-KTG) system, is developed using the high resolution (horizontal grid spacing of 1.5 km) Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The KP-KTG system is constructed first by selection of 15 best diagnostics of aviation turbulence using the method of probability of detection (POD) with pilot reports (PIREPs) and the LDAPS analysis data. The 15 best diagnostics are combined into an ensemble KTG predictor, named KP-KTG, with their weighting scores computed by the values of area under curve (AUC) of each diagnostics. The performance of the KP-KTG, represented by AUC, is larger than 0.84 in the recent two years (June 2012~May 2014), which is very good considering relatively small number of PIREPs. The KP-KTG can provide localized turbulence forecasting in Korean Peninsula, and its skill score is as good as that of the operational-KTG conducting in East Asia.

Development of the Seasonal Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) System Using the Regional Unified Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (기상청 통합지역모델을 이용한 계절 한국형 항공난류 예측시스템(계절-KTG) 개발)

  • Lee, Dan-Bi;Chun, Hye-Yeong
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.235-243
    • /
    • 2014
  • Sources of aviation turbulence vary through the seasons, especially in the East Asia including Korean peninsula, associated primarily with the changes in the jet/front system and convective activities. For this reason, a seasonal Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) system (seasonal-KTG) is developed in the present study by using pilot reports (PIREPs) and analysis data of the operational Unified Model (UM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for two years between June 2011 and May 2013. Twenty best diagnostics of aviation turbulence in each season are selected by the method of probability of detection (POD) using the PIREPs and UM data. After calculating a weighting value of each selected diagnostics using their area under curve (AUC), the 20 best diagnostics are combined with the weighting scores into a single ensemble-averaged index by season. Compared with the current operational-KTG system that is based on the diagnostics applying all seasons, the performances of the seasonal-KTG system are better in all seasons, except in fall.