• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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• pp.1393-1396
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• 2009

일반적으로 확률강우량은 관측된 강우자료의 분석을 통해 산정하게 된다. 관측된 강우자료의 빈도해석을 통해 산정된 확률강우량은 기후변화 등을 반영하기 매우 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 통계적 기법을 이용하여 수문기상인자를 반영하여 서울지점의 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 수문기상인자와 연최대시간강우량사이의 상관관계에 기초하여 확률강우량을 산정할 수 있는 CPPM(Climate Pattern and Precipitation Model)을 구축하고 서울 지점을 대상으로 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과에서 매개변수적 지점빈도해석의 결과와 CPPM 확률강우량은 비슷한 Qunatile을 산정하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 본 연구의 결과를 지구온난화 등에 따른 기후변화에 따라 극한강우인 연최대강우량의 변화를 예측하는데 있어 기초자료로 활용 할 수 있을 것으로 기대 된다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전기물성ㆍ응용부문C
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.130-135
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• 2001

In this paper, the distribution characteristics of salt contaminants with the distance from sea in East coast, from Sokcho to Pusan of Korea peninsula were investigated to evaluate the design standard of KEPCO. To get the equivalent salt deposit density(ESDD), conventional brush wiping method was used. As the measuring period is comparatively short, and the measuring interval is long to check the maximum value, acquired ESDD data is very lower than the recommended value in the standard. The measured data didn't follow normal distribution, so it should take the statistical treatment. Through normalizing method, we could get a reliable probability data. In the past investigation, the accumulation characteristics of Japan is consulted to set the criterion, but the climatic condition of Korea is different to Japan. With the comparison of precipitation data and some measured data for long tern accumulation, we could set appropriate accumulation factor.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.259-272
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• 2023

In this paper, we suggest a new method for the prediction of sharp changes in particulate matter (PM₁₀) using quantile mapping. To predict the current PM₁₀ density in Seoul, we consider PM₁₀ and precipitation in Baengnyeong and Ganghwa monitoring stations observed a few hours before. For the PM₁₀ distribution estimation, we use the extreme value mixture model, which is a combination of conventional probability distributions and the generalized Pareto distribution. Furthermore, we also consider a quantile generalized additive model (QGAM) for the relationship modeling between precipitation and PM₁₀. To prove the validity of our proposed model, we conducted a simulation study and showed that the proposed method gives lower mean absolute differences. Real data analysis shows that the proposed method could give a more accurate prediction when there are sharp changes in PM₁₀ in Seoul.

• 물과 미래
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.179-188
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• 1996

수자원의 주공급원인 강수는 현상의 발생여부에 따라 건조일과 습윤일이 교대로 반복되는 과정으로 구성되어 있으며, 특히, 일강수계열의 습윤일에 발생되는 강수량의 크기는 매우 다양한 형태를 지니고 있어 이 과정을 모형화 하는데는 복잡한 확률과정이 수반된다. 본 연구에서는 일강수계열의 발생과정을 건조일, 습윤일로 구분하고 습윤일의 강수량을 상태별로 분류하여 각 상태별 천이확률을 계산함으로써 이를 장래에 발생 가능한 강수사상의 모의발생에 이용하였다. 본 모형은 수문사상의 발생과 비발생만을 구분하던 2-state Markov 연쇄모형에 강수의 발생시 강수량의 크기에 따라 상태를 여러 개로 구분하여 강수량을 추정할 수 있도록 수정한 것으로 간헐 수문사상인 일강수계열의 구성성분인 건조일과 습윤일, 건조, 습윤 지속기간 및 습윤일의 강수량을 Markov 연쇄에 의해 동시에 발생있도록 한 것이며 다른 모형에 비해 사용이 비교적 용이하다. 본 연구에서 제안한 multi-state Markov 연쇄모형의 적용 가능성을 검토하기 위하여 비교적 장기간의 자료를 보유하고 있는 관측소의 강수자료를 이용하였으며 그 결과를 강수량, 건조, 습윤일수 및 건조, 습윤계속기간의 분포를 실제자료와 비교하여 모형의 적합도를 평가하였다. 이를 토대로 홍수 및 한발기간의 추정과 모의발생에 의한 자료 확장으로 중장기 수자원 계획 및 운영에 효율적으로 이용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.867-872
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• 2005

This study introduces a method to evaluate the probability of a specific area to be affected by a drought of a given severity and shows its potential for investigating agricultural drought characteristics. The method is applied to Gyeonggi as a case study. The proposed procedure includes Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) time series, which are linearly transformed by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method, These EOFs are extended temporally with AutoRegressive Moving Average(ARMA) method and spatially with Kriging method. By performing these simulations, long time series of SPI can be simulated for each designed grid cell in whole Gyeonggi area. The probability distribution functions of the area covered by a drought and the drought severity are then derived and combined to produce drought severity-area-frequency(SAF) curves.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.430-435
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• 2008

In order to design Non-point source management, the aspect of statistical features of the entire precipitation data should be focused since non-point source discharge is driven by continuous rainfall runoffs. 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function is used to establish urban stormwater capture curve instead of previous single-parameter exponential PDF. Then, recent 10-year data in Busan are applied to establish the curve. The result shows that 3-parameter mixed PDF gives better resolution.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제43권5호
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• pp.70-82
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• 2001

This study was conducted to derive the regional design rainfall by the regional frequency analysis based on the regionalization of the precipitation suggested by the first report of this project. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized extreme value distribution among applied distributions. Regional and at-site parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by the linear combination of the probability weighted moments, L-moment. The regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Relative root-mean-square error(RRMSE), relative bias(RBIAS) and relative reduction(RR) in RRMSE were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. All show that the regional analysis procedure can substantially reduce the RRMSE, RBIAS and RR in RRMSE in the prediction of design rainfall. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the legions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

• 대기
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.481-499
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• 2019

National Institute of Meteorological Sciences has conducted a total 54 cloud seeding experiments with a silver iodide and calcium chloride using aircrafts from 2008 to 2018. The goal of the experiments is to improve the techniques of precipitation enhancement in Korea. The cloud seeding experiments using the silver iodide and calcium chloride were 36 and 18 times, respectively. During the cloud seeding experiments of the silver iodide and calcium chloride, the average values of total cloud amount for two kinds of seeding materials were 9.6 for and 8.1, respectively. The cloud type with the highest occurrence was Nimbostratus (Ns)-Stratus (St) (58%) in the silver iodide cloud seeding experiment. It was Altostratus (As)-Stratocumulus (Sc) (44%) in the calcium chloride cloud seeding experiment. Compared to probability of obtaining cloud seeding effect of the experiments using a leased aircraft, the probability using an atmospheric research aircraft increased from 43% to 63% in the silver iodide cloud seeding experiment and from 29% to 75% in the calcium chloride cloud seeding experiment. However, the increasing tendency was only shown during the one year experiment (2018). To get the meaningful statistical tendency of the cloud seeding effects, it is needed to implement many experiments in several years. Further we have to more clearly understand the characteristics of clouds developing in Korea and implement the cloud seeding experiments under a variety of weather conditions in order to develop the optimized precipitation enhancement technology in Korea.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제26권11호
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• pp.2305-2311
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• 2002

The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

• 대기
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.391-401
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• 2019

This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0℃ future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0℃ hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0℃ warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0℃ warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5℃ additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0℃, 0.5℃ additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5℃ can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.