• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.380-386
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• 2017

Fennovoima's nuclear power plant, Hanhikivi 1, $Pyh{\ddot{a}}joki$, Finland, is currently in design phase, and its construction is scheduled to begin in 2018 and electricity production in 2024. The objective of this paper is to produce a preliminary list of safety-significant external event combinations including preliminary probability estimates, to be used in the probabilistic risk assessment of Hanhikivi 1 plant. Starting from the list of relevant single events, the relevant event combinations are identified based on seasonal variation, preconditions related to different events, and dependencies (fundamental and cascade type) between events. Using this method yields 30 relevant event combinations of two events for the Hanhikivi site. The preliminary probability of each combination is evaluated, and event combinations with extremely low probability are excluded from further analysis. Event combinations of three or more events are identified by adding possible events to the remaining combinations of two events. Finally, 10 relevant combinations of two events and three relevant combinations of three events remain. The results shall be considered preliminary and will be updated after evaluating more detailed effects of different events on plant safety.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.649-664
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• 2017

Purpose: This paper introduces the technology of prognostics for Industry 4.0 and presents its application procedure for fitness-for-service assessment of natural gas pipelines according to ISO 13374 framework. Methods: Combining data-driven approach with pipe failure models, we present a hybrid scheme for the gas pipeline prognostics. The probability of pipe failure is obtained by using the PCORRC burst pressure model and First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. A fuzzy inference system is also employed to accommodate uncertainty due to corrosion growth and defect occurrence. Results: With a modified field dataset, the probability of failure on the pipeline is calculated. Then, its residual useful life (RUL) is predicted according to ISO 16708 standard. As a result, the fitness-for-service of the test pipeline is well-confirmed. Conclusion: The framework described in ISO 13374 is applicable to the RUL prediction and the fitness-for-service assessment for gas pipelines. Therefore, the technology of prognostics is helpful for safe and efficient management of gas pipelines in Industry 4.0.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.661-668
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• 2019

Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 1996년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.532-539
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• 1996

Existing assessment methodologies present a considerable problem because of fuzzy situation of deterioration mechanism of concrete bridges; namely, qualitative, subjective or inconsistent. This paper discusses current assessment methods in aspect of uncertainty. The expert system, COBDA, is developed for consistent and fast assessment of deteriorantion of concrete bridges. Briefly introduced in this paper are the structure of expert system and several methodologies for decision making of deterioration situation and providing repair option. COBDA is configured by PROLOG for logic approach and expert system shell based on Bayesian subjective probability. The methodologies are illustrated and discussed by comparison of condition assessment results in a case study.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제63권7호
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• pp.968-975
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• 2014

This paper proposed a evaluation method for individual's subjective preferred location using EEG and emotional assessment. Visual stimulus were sequentially presented a total six points(the top and the bottom of the left, the top and the bottom of the center and the top and the bottom of the right on the screen). EEG were measured from twenty subjects according to each six points. At the same time, we were executed evaluation of subjects preferred location from emotional assessment. Alpha and beta wave were measured in Fp1, Fp2, F7 and F8 location, followed by ten to twenty electrode system. Correlations and variations of alpha and beta wave from each channel were calculated and analyzed. Because of the number of subjects population under 30, we used Speareman test for a correlation analysis between alpha and beta wave. Also, emotional assessments which compose of visual sense harmony, visual sense stability, stability of position and the visibility were performed and were analyzed by average and frequency. After visual stimulus, emotional assessments were performed. From the variance analysis of EEG, beta wave from F7 was appeared statistically significant as significance probability of 0.006. Also, between alpha wave and beta wave appeared a negative correlation(r=-0.190). From the post-hoc test of F7 beta wave, location 1, 5 and 6 appeared to difference statistically significant. Emotional assessment result according to six positions showed 0.00 significance probability. Thus, location and emotional assessment appeared to influence on each other. From the average and frequency analysis of emotional assessment, location 2 showed obtained of best emotional assessment score and appeared lower beta wave than other locations. Finally, most subjects showed a preference for location 2. Through obtained results in this paper, will be helpful to about human emotional assessment and EEG research.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.465-474
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• 2013

Purpose: To provide a variety of stable military supplies, risk should be avoided or removed. This paper aims to provide an objective method of risk assesment for risk matrix to evaluate risk level. Methods: According to previous results of risk assesment through risk matrix, some parameters and probability density functions, which include characteristics of military supplies, are selected and Risk matrix is modelled based on that. Results: Results show that a proposed method can evaluate objectively risk level through the stochastic modelling and provide well-balanced risk assessments by categorizing into 3 levels such as high, middle and low level risk. Conclusion: A current risk assessment method includes substantial subjectivity of risk assessment and as a problem about military supplies comes up, we can not show any appropriate evidences for decision of risk assessment. We propose an objective scheme employing stochastic modelling with parameters and probability density functions.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제22권10호
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• pp.158-166
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• 2005

Pressurized gas pipeline is subject to harmful effects both of the surrounding environment and of the materials transmitted in them. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including tincture mechanics analysis etc are required. Up to now, the integrity assessment has been performed using conventional deterministic approaches even though there are many uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approach is considered as an appropriate method for gas pipeline evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to estimate the failure probability of corroded pipeline in gas and oil plants and to propose limited operating conditions under different types of leadings. To do this, a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation techniques was developed and applied to evaluate failure probabilities of corroded API-5L-X52/X60 gas pipelines subjected to internal pressure, bending moment and combined loading. The evaluation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.169-179
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• 2002

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for the estimation of damage location and severity in structure using Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). Artificial neural network has been being used for damage assessment by many researchers, but there are still some barriers that must be overcome to improve its accuracy and efficiency. The major problems with the conventional neural network are the necessity of many training data for neural network learning and ambiguity in the relation of neural network architecture with convergence of solution. In this paper, PNN is used as a pattern classifier to overcome those problems in the conventional neural network. The basic idea of damage assessment algorithm proposed in this paper is that modal characteristics from a damaged structure are compared with the training patterns which represent the damage in specific element to determine how close it is to training patterns in terms of the probability from PNN. The training pattern that gives a maximum probability implies that the element used in producing the training pattern is considered as a damaged one. The proposed damage assessment algorithm using PNN is applied to a 2-span continuous beam model structure to verify the algorithm.

• 대한건축학회논문집:구조계
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.135-145
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• 2020

Recently, the disaster rate of the construction industry has increased with high-rise, and complexity of the building, unlike the decrease in the disaster rate in other industries. Although risk assessment is performed to reduce the occurrence of disasters, it is difficult to estimate the risks accurately due to activity in which no disaster has occurred, and inconsistencies in the level of details of work. In this study, in order to evaluate the risk of the major activity for the apartment construction work, the activity was identified by referring to the risk assessment model of construction industry type by the KOSHA. The construction work types and activities were consistently organized in level of work into nine work types and 82 activities were through experts consultation. Analyzing the disaster types that occurred during work through KOSHA disaster cases, calculating the probability of disaster occurrence according to the type of disaster, and combining the probability of disaster with the severity of disaster to estimate the risk assessment method was presented. Using the daily report of the construction site of the apartment, the results of a case study confirmed the validity of the risk calculation method presented in this study.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제88권4호
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• pp.311-322
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• 2023

Riverine flood is one of the critical natural threats to river-crossing bridges. As floods are the most-occurred natural hazard worldwide, survival probability of bridges due to floods must be assessed in a speedy but precise manner. In this regard, the paper presents a reliability-based approach for a rapid assessment of failure probability of vulnerable bridge components under floods. This robust method is generic in nature and can be applied to both concrete and steel girder bridges. The developed methodology essentially utilizes limit state performance functions, expressed in terms of capacity and flood demand, for probable failure modes of various vulnerable components of bridges. Advanced First Order Reliability Method (AFORM), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) techniques are applied for the purpose of reliability assessment and developing flood fragility curves of bridges in which flow velocity and water height are taken as flood intensity measures. Upon validating the proposed method, it is applied to a case study bridge that experiences the flood scenario of a river in Gujarat, India. Research outcome portrays how effectively and efficiently the proposed reliability-based method can be applied for a quick assessment of flood vulnerability of bridges in any flood-prone region of interest.