• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제7권5호
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• pp.698-704
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• 2012

This paper proposes a new methodology for evaluating the probabilistic reliability based grid expansion planning of composite power system including the Wind Turbine Generators. The proposed model includes capacity limitations and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. It proposes to handle the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines, transformers and wind resources of WTG, etc.) by a Composite power system Equivalent Load Duration Curve (CMELDC)-based model considering wind turbine generators (WTG). The model is derived from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on an effective nodal load model including WTGs. Several scenarios are used to choose the optimal solution among various scenarios featuring new candidate lines. The characteristics and effectiveness of this simulation model are illustrated by case study using Jeju power system in South Korea.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.1494-1503
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• 2018

This paper proposes a novel probabilistic load flow model for power systems integrated with large-scale wind power, which considers the multi-time scale dispatching features. The ramp limitations of the units and the steady-state security constraints of the network have been comprehensively considered for the entire duration of the study period; thus, the coupling of the system operation states at different time sections has been taken into account. For each time section, the automatic generation control (AGC) strategy is considered, and all variations associated with the wind power and loads are compensated by all AGC units. Cumulants and the Gram-Charlier expansion are used to solve the proposed model. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using the modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system and the modified IEEE 118-bus system.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권4호
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• pp.457-466
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• 2013

Wind energy is rapidly becoming significant generating technologies in electricity markets. As probabilistic nature of wind energy creates many uncertainties in the short-term scheduling, additional actions for reliable market operation should be taken. This paper presents a novel approach to evaluate ramping capability requirement for changes in imbalance energy between day-ahead market and real-time market due to uncertainty of wind generation as well as system load. Dynamic ramp rate model has been applied for realistic solution in unit commitment problem, which is implemented in day-ahead market. Probabilistic optimal power flow has been used to verify ramping capability determined by the proposed method is reasonable in economic and reliable aspects. This approach was tested on six-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system with a wind farm. The results show that the proposed approach provides ramping capability information to meet both forecasted variability and desired confidence level of anticipated uncertainty.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.591-600
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• 2018

The probabilistic characterization of wind field characteristics is a significant task for fatigue reliability assessment of long-span railway bridges in wind-prone regions. In consideration of the effect of wind direction, the stochastic properties of wind field should be represented by a bivariate statistical model of wind speed and direction. This paper presents the construction of the bivariate model of wind speed and direction at the site of a railway arch bridge by use of the long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The wind characteristics are derived by analyzing the real-time wind monitoring data, such as the mean wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method is proposed to formulate the joint distribution model of wind speed and direction. For the probability density function (PDF) of wind speed, a double-parameter Weibull distribution function is utilized, and a von Mises distribution function is applied to represent the PDF of wind direction. The SQP algorithm with multi-start points is used to estimate the parameters in the bivariate model, namely Weibull-von Mises mixture model. One-year wind monitoring data are selected to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method. The optimal model is jointly evaluated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and coefficient of determination, $R^2$. The obtained results indicate that the proposed SQP algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method can effectively establish the bivariate model of wind speed and direction. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction will facilitate the wind-induced fatigue reliability assessment of long-span bridges.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제21권10호
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• pp.52-58
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• 2007

본 논문에서는 발전량 적정성 평가를 위한 풍력발전 모형의 제안하였다. 풍력 발전량과 계통 부하량은 일 년을 주기로 하는 주기함수 형태이므로, 둘 중 하나의 물리량이 주어지면 다른 물리량의 발생 확률을 계산할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 가상의 데이터를 바탕으로 두 물리량을 k-means 클러스터링 알고리즘으로 단계화하였고, 각 단계간의 확률적인 관계를 계산하였다. 제안하는 풍력발전 모형은 상태샘플링(state sampling)에 기반을 둔 몬테카를로 모의로써 발전량 적정성을 평가하는데 적합하다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제64권7호
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• pp.984-991
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• 2015

This paper presents the methodology for optimal design of power grid for offshore wind power plant (OWPP) and optimum location of offshore substation. The proposed optimization process is based on a genetic algorithm, where the objective cost model is composed of investment, power loss, repair, and reliability cost using the net present value during the whole OWPP life cycle. A probability wind power output is modeled to reflect the characteristics of a wind power plant that produces electricity through wind and to calculate the reliability cost called expected energy not supplied. The main objective is to find the minimum cost for grid connection topology by submarine cables which cannot cross each other. Cable crossing was set as a constraint in the optimization algorithm of grid topology of the wind power plant. On the basis of this method, a case study is conducted to validate the model by simulating a 100-MW OWF.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.719-728
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• 2013

Probabilistic assessment of voltage stability margin (VSM) with existence of correlated wind speeds is investigated. Nataf transformation is adopted to establish wind speed correlation (WSC) model. Based on the saddle-node bifurcation transversality condition equations and Monte Carlo simulation technique, probability distribution of VSM is determined. With correlation coefficients range low to high value, the effect of WSC on VSM is studied. In addition, two risk indexes are proposed and the possible threat caused by WSC is evaluated from the viewpoint of risk analysis. Experimental results show that the presence of correlated wind speeds is harmful to safe and stable operation of a power system as far as voltage stability is concerned. The achievement of this paper gives a detailed elaboration about the influence of WSC on voltage stability and provides a potentially effective analytical tool for modern power system with large-scale wind power sources integration.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.607-617
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• 2019

Global warming and climate change are increasing the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes and thus increasing the risk effects of typhoon and hurricane hazards on nuclear power plants (NPPs). To reflect these changes, a new NPP should be designed to endure design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an exceedance frequency of $10^{-7}/yr$. However, the short typhoon and hurricane observation records and uncertainties included in the inputs for an estimation cause significant uncertainty in the estimated wind speeds for return periods of longer than 100,000 years. A logic-tree framework is introduced to handle the epistemic uncertainty when estimating wind speeds. Three key parameters of a typhoon wind field model, i.e., the central pressure difference, pressure profile parameter, and radius to maximum wind, are used for constructing logic tree branches. The wind speeds of the simulated typhoons and the probable maximum wind speeds are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, and wind hazard curves are derived as a function of the annual exceedance probability or return period. A logic tree decreases the epistemic uncertainty included in the wind intensity models and provides reasonably acceptable wind speeds.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2008년도 제39회 하계학술대회
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• pp.271-272
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• 2008

Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc are becoming important stage by stage, considering the effect of environment. Wind energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy. What's more, due to wind speed random variation the wind turbine generators can not make two-state model as conventional generators. The method of obtaining reliability evaluation indices of wind turbine generators is different from the conventional generators. This paper presents a study on the reliability evaluation of power system considering wind turbine generators with a simplified multi-state model.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.1615-1625
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• 2013

Modelling and simulating the wind power intermittent behaviour are the basis of the planning and scheduling studies concerning wind power integration. The wind power outputs are evidently correlated in space and time and bring challenges in characterizing their behaviour. This paper provides a methodology to model and simulate the clustered wind power considering its spatio-temporal correlations using the theory of copula. The sampling approach captures the complex spatio-temporal connections among the wind farms by employing a conditional density function calculated using multidimensional copula function. The empirical study of real wind power measurement shows how the wind power outputs are correlated and how these correlations affect the overall uncertainty of clustered wind power output. The case study validates the simulation technique by comparing the simulated results with the real measurements.