• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic variation

Search Result 172, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Reliability Analysis of Prestress Concrete Box Girder Bridges Considering Inspection Cost (검측비용을 고려한 PC박스 거더의 신뢰성 분석)

  • Nguyen, Van Son;Jeong, Min-Chul;Kong, Jung-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
    • /
    • 2010.04a
    • /
    • pp.476-479
    • /
    • 2010
  • In recent years, the deterioration of infrastructures is especially considered. In prestress concrete bridges, one of the important mechanisms of deterioration is the corrosion of the post-tensioned tendon due to environmental agents. In this study, the reliability analysis is performed for a prestress concrete box girder bridge under the pitting corrosion attack with considering the inspection and failure cost. The variation of life-time performance depending on inspection methods have to be quantified. The inspection methods with different accuracy of corrosion detection are presented and applied for model of reliability analysis. The computer program for analysis reliability index of the structure as well as updating process is obtained. An existing bridge is applied for illustrating the influence of inspection cost on the behaviors of structure. Subsequently, the benefit of inspection has shown to predict the time to failure of structure.

  • PDF

Seismic hazard assessment for two cities in Eastern Iran

  • Farzampour, Alireza;Kamali-Asl, Arash
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.681-697
    • /
    • 2015
  • Iran as one of the countries located on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt has recently experienced a few number of catastrophic earthquakes. A well-known index of how buildings are affected by earthquakes is through assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and structures' response spectra. In this research, active faults around Kerman and Birjand, two major cities in eastern parts of Iran, have been considered. Seismic catalogues are gathered to categorize effects of surrounding faults on seismicity of the region. These catalogues were further refined with respect to time and space based on Knopoff-Gardner algorithm in order to increase statistical independency of events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been estimated for each of cities regarding 50, 100, 200 and 500 years of structures' effective life-span. These results subsequently have been compared with Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). It has been observed that DSHA not necessarily suggests upper bound of PSHA results. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and spectral acceleration were provided for 2% and 10% levels of probability of exceedance. The results show that increasing source-to-site distance leads to spectral acceleration reduction regarding each fault. In addition, the spectral acceleration rate of variation would increase if the source-to-site distance decreases.

Effect of Temporal Distribution of Rainfall on Water-Surface Level of Sihwa Lake (강우분포유형이 저수지의 홍수위에 미치는 영향 (시화호를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Jong-Kyu;Lee, Jai-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.36 no.2
    • /
    • pp.325-343
    • /
    • 2003
  • In this study, several types of rainfall time distribution of the probabilistic rainfall amount have been applied to the Sihwa Lake, located in Gyounggi Province, Korea and their runoff characteristics, obtained by the Hec-Hms program, according to the rainfall distribution types, were compared and analysed. And then, the influences of the above rainfall distribution types of the highest water level of the reservoir, computed through the reservoir flood routing, were analysed. The tidal variation was considered, performing the flood routing and, in addition, the new program, called “IWSEA”, which can compute the reservoir water level, was developed. To conclude, when the Mononobe type of the rainfall distribution was used, the largest inflow flood discharge into the reservoir was performed and the highest reservoir water level was obtained when the Pilgrim-Cordery type of the rainfall distribution was applied.

Economic Analysis of Insulation Wall Panel System using LCC Method (LCC기법을 활용한 단열외벽패널시스템의 경제성분석)

  • Kim, Min-Woo;Jeon, Kyu-Nam;Lee, Gun-Cheol;Cho, Byoung-Young;Han, Min-Cheol;Han, Cheon-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.153-155
    • /
    • 2011
  • In this study, an insulation panel system that has the most excellent economic feasibility in a long term LCC viewpoint in some analysis, which determine a proper insulation panel construction method for the out wall of structures, is analyzed. As a result, in the case of a deterministic LCC analysis, the initial investment cost represents about 80,000Won/㎡ for extrusion ceramic panels. Also, although the costs of maintenance, disassembling, and disposal show no large differences compared with other panel systems, metal panels indicate a bit higher than other panel systems about 1.5 times. In the probability density function that analyzes the variation of the probabilistic cost between panel systems and its economic feasibility, metal panels show the highest cost distribution and extrusion and stone panels represent low cost distributions. In the cumulative function distribution that composites probability density functions, the extrusion ceramic panel represents the most excellent economic feasibility and reliability and that is also the most superior subject among the subjects used in this study.

  • PDF

Shape Optimization Considering Fatigue Life of Pulley in Power-Steering Pulley (파워스티어링 오일펌프용 풀리의 피로수명을 고려한 형상최적화)

  • Shim, Hee-Jin;Kim, Jung-Kyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.30 no.9 s.252
    • /
    • pp.1041-1048
    • /
    • 2006
  • The pulley is one of core mechanical elements in the power steering system for vehicles. The pulley operates under both the compressive loading and the torque. Therefore, to assure the safety of the power steering system, it is very important to investigate the durability and the optimization of the pulley. In this study, the applied stress distribution of the pulley under high tension and torsion loads was obtained by using finite element analysis. Based on these results the fatigue life of the pulley with the variation of the fatigue strength was evaluated by a durability analysis simulator. The results at 50% and 1% for the failure probability were compared with respect to the fatigue life. In addition to the optimum design for the fatigue life is obtained by the response surface method. The response function utilizes the function of the life and weight factors. Within range for design life condition the minimization of the weight, one of the formulation, is obtained by the optimal design. Moreover the optimum design by considering its durability and validity is verified by the durability test.

Reliability Analysis for Structure Design of Automatic Ocean Salt Collector Using Sampling Method of Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Song, Chang Yong
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.34 no.5
    • /
    • pp.316-324
    • /
    • 2020
  • This paper presents comparative studies of reliability analysis and meta-modeling using the sampling method of Monte Carlo simulation for the structure design of an automatic ocean salt collector (AOSC). The thickness sizing variables of structure members are considered as random variables. Probabilistic performance functions are selected from strength performances evaluated via the finite element analysis of an AOSC. The sampling methods used in the comparative studies are simple random sampling and Sobol sequences with varied numbers of sampling. Approximation methods such as the Kriging model is applied to the meta-model generation. Reliability performances such as the probability failure and distribution are compared based on the variation of the sampling method of Monte Carlo simulation. The meta-modeling accuracy is evaluated for the Kriging model generated from the Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol sequence results. It is discovered that the Sobol sequence method is applicable to not only to the reliability analysis for the structural design of marine equipment such as the AOSC, but also to Kriging meta-modeling owing to its high numerical efficiency.

Seismic fragility analysis of wood frame building in hilly region

  • Ghosh, Swarup;Chakraborty, Subrata
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.97-107
    • /
    • 2021
  • A comprehensive study on seismic performance of wood frame building in hilly regions is presented. Specifically, seismic fragility assessment of a typical wood frame building at various locations of the northeast region of India are demonstrated. A three-dimensional simplified model of the wood frame building is developed with due consideration to nonlinear behaviour of shear walls under lateral loads. In doing so, a trilinear model having improved capability to capture the force-deformation behaviour of shear walls including the strength degradation at higher deformations is proposed. The improved capability of the proposed model to capture the force-deformation behaviour of shear wall is validated by comparing with the existing experimental results. The structural demand values are obtained from nonlinear time history analysis (NLTHA) of the three-dimensional wood frame model considering the effect of uncertainty due to record to record variation of ground motions and structural parameters as well. The ground motion bins necessary for NLTHA are prepared based on the identified hazard level from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the considered locations. The maximum likelihood estimates of the lognormal fragility parameters are obtained from the observed failure cases and the seismic fragilities corresponding to different locations are estimated accordingly. The results of the numerical study show that the wood frame constructions commonly found in the region are likely to suffer minor cracking or damage in the shear walls under the earthquake occurrence corresponding to the estimated seismic hazard level; however, poses negligible risk against complete collapse of such structures.

Probabilistic analysis of anisotropic rock slope with reinforcement measures

  • Zoran Berisavljevic;Dusan Berisavljevic;Milos Marjanovic;Svetlana Melentijevic
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.285-301
    • /
    • 2023
  • During the construction of E75 highway through Grdelica gorge in Serbia, a major failure occurred in the zone of reinforced rock slope. Excavation was performed in highly anisotropic Paleozoic schist rock formation. The reinforcement consisted of the two rows of micropile wall with pre-stressed anchors. Forces in anchors were monitored with load cells while benchmarks were installed for superficial displacement measurements. The aim of the study is to investigate possible causes of instability considering different probability distributions of the strength of discontinuities and anchor bond strength by applying different optimization techniques for finding the critical failure surface. Even though the deterministic safety factor value is close to unity, the probability of failure is governed by variability of shear strength of anisotropic planes and optimization method used for locating the critical sliding surface. The Cuckoo search technique produces higher failure probabilities compared to the others. Depending on the assigned statistical distribution of input parameters, various performance functions of the factor of safety are obtained. The probability of failure is insensitive to the variation of bond strength. Different sampling techniques should yield similar results considering that the sufficient number of safety factor evaluations is chosen to achieve converged solution.

Fragility-based rapid earthquake loss assessment of precast RC buildings in the Marmara region

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Oguzhan Cetindemir;Seyhan O. Akcan;Abdullah C. Zulfikar
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.88 no.1
    • /
    • pp.13-23
    • /
    • 2023
  • Seismic risk assessment studies are one of the most crucial instruments for mitigating casualties and economic losses. This work utilizes fragility curves to evaluate the seismic risk of single-story precast buildings, which are generally favored in Marmara's organized industrial zones. First, the precast building stock in the region has been categorized into nine sub-classes. Then, seven locations in the Marmara region with a high concentration of industrial activities are considered. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were conducted for both the soil-dependent and soil-independent scenarios. Subsequently, damage analysis was performed based on the structural capacity and mean fragility curves. Considering four different consequence models, 630 sub-class-specific loss curves for buildings were obtained. In the current study, it has been determined that the consequence model has a significant impact on the loss curves, hence, average loss curves were computed for each case investigated. In light of the acquired results, it was found that the loss ratio values obtained at different locations within the same region show significant variation. In addition, it was observed that the structural damage states change from serviceable to repairable or repairable to unrepairable. Within the scope of the study, 126 average loss functions were presented that could be easily used by non-experts in earthquake engineering, regardless of structural analysis. These functions, which offer loss ratios for varying hazard levels, are valuable outputs that allow preliminary risk assessment in the region and yield sensible outcomes for insurance activities.

Development of Performance Based Resistance Capacity Evaluation Method for RC Compression Member under Vehicle Impact Load (차량 충돌하중을 받는 RC 압축부재의 성능기반형 저항성능 평가방법 개발)

  • Kim, Jang-Ho Jay;Yi, Na-Hyun;Phan, Duc-Hung;Kim, Sung-Bae;Lee, Kang-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.535-546
    • /
    • 2010
  • Recently, the probability of collision accident between vehicles or vessels and infrastructures are increasing at alarming rate. Particularly, collision impact load can be detrimental to sub-structures such as piers and columns. The damaged pier from an impact load of a vehicle or a vessel can lead to member damages, which make the member more vulnerable to impact load due to other accidents which. In extreme case, may cause structural collapse. Therefore, in this study, the vehicle impact load on concrete compression member was considered to assess the quantitative design resistance capacity to improve, the existing design method and to setup the new damage assessment method. The case study was carried out using the LS-DYNA, an explicit finite element analysis program. The parameters for the case study were cross-section variation of pier, impact load angle, permanent axial load and axial load ratio, concrete strength, longitudinal and lateral rebar ratios, and slenderness ratio. Using the analysis results, the performance based resistance capacity evaluation method for impact load using satisfaction curve was developed using Bayesian probabilistic method, which can be applied to reinforced concrete column design for impact loads.