• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.988-992
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• 2011

The buckling characteristics of the continuous welded rail track(CWR) is uncertainly varied by many influence factors, such as rail temperature, operating conditions of a train and maintenance of the track etc. Therefore, applying the probabilistic approach method is essential to rationally consider uncertainty and randomness of the various parameters that affect the track buckling. In this study, the probabilistic approach analysis was carried out and the results were compared with the deterministic approach using the buckling probability evaluation system of CWR tracks developed by our research team. From the comparison, it was identified that a probabilistic approach can quantitatively assess the reliability of the CWR tracks based on failure probability and can be used as a tool for decision making in track design, maintenance and operating etc.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.101-115
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• 2013

This paper examines the application of structural reliability analysis to submarine pressure hulls to clarify the merits of probabilistic approach in respect thereof. Ultimate strength prediction methods which take the inelastic behavior of ring-stiffened cylindrical shells and hemi-spherical shells into account are reviewed. The modeling uncertainties in terms of bias and coefficient of variation for failure prediction methods in current design guidelines are defined by evaluating the compiled experimental data. A simple ultimate strength formulation for ring-stiffened cylinders taking into account the interaction between local and global failure modes and an ultimate strength formula for hemispherical shells which have better accuracy and reliability than current design codes are taken as basis for reliability analysis. The effects of randomness of geometrical and material properties on failure are assessed by a prelimnary study on reference models. By evaluation of sensitivity factors important variables are determined and comparesons are made with conclusions of previous reliability studies.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.3A
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• pp.193-200
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• 2010

Structural design requires simultaneously to ensure safety by considering quantitatively uncertainties in the applied loadings, material properties and fabrication error and to maximize economical efficiency. As a solution, system reliability-based design optimization (SRBDO), which takes into consideration both uncertainties and economical efficiency, has been extensively researched and numerous attempts have been done to apply it to structural design. Contrary to conventional deterministic optimization, SRBDO involves the evaluation of component and system probabilistic constraints. However, because of the complicated algorithm for calculating component reliability indices and system reliability, excessive computational time is required when the large-scale finite element analysis is involved in evaluating the probabilistic constraints. Accordingly, an algorithm for SRBDO exhibiting improved stability and efficiency needs to be developed for the large-scale problems. In this study, a more stable and efficient SRBDO based on the performance measure approach (PMA) is developed. PMA shows good performance when it is applied to reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) which has only component probabilistic constraints. However, PMA could not be applied to SRBDO because PMA only calculates the probabilistic performance measure for limit state functions and does not evaluate the reliability indices. In order to overcome these difficulties, the decoupled algorithm is proposed where RBDO based on PMA is sequentially performed with updated target component reliability indices until the calculated system reliability index approaches the target system reliability index. Through a mathematical problem and ten-bar truss problem, the proposed method shows better convergence and efficiency than other approaches.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.191-207
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• 2015

It is generally accepted that, in the interest of safety, it is essential to provide a minimum level of flexural ductility, which will allow energy dissipation and moment redistribution as required. If one wishes to be uniformly conservative across all of the design variables, curvature ductility and moment redistribution factor should be calculated using a probabilistic method, as is the case for other design parameters in reinforced concrete mechanics. In this study, simple expressions are derived for the evaluation of curvature ductility and moment redistribution factor, based on the concept of demand and capacity rotation. Probabilistic models are then derived for both the curvature ductility and the moment redistribution factor, by means of central limit theorem and through taking advantage of the specific behaviour of moment redistribution factor as a function of curvature ductility and plastic hinge length. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method is used to check and verify the results of the proposed method. Although some minor simplifications are made in the proposed method, there is a very good agreement between the MCS and the proposed method. The proposed method could be used in any future probabilistic evaluation of curvature ductility and moment redistribution factors.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.5
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• pp.841-846
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• 2010

Reliability in electrical power system refers to normal operation for schedule time in some system that action consists. It means that if there is no contingency of electric power supply decrease or load curtailment, reliability of the system is high. In this paper, a method for evaluation of transmission capability is proposed considering reliability standards. Deterministic and probabilistic methods for evaluation of transmission capability has been studied. These researches considered uncertainty of system components or N-1 contingency only. However, the proposed method can inform customers and system operators more suitable transmission capability. Well-being method using state probabilities of system components proves to be a more effective method in this paper comparing with calculation of LOLE(Loss of Load Expectation). The length of calculation is shorter but it can give more practical information to the exact system operators. Well-being method is applied to IEEE-RTS 24bus system to evaluate reliability in case study. The result is compared with a existing way to evaluate reliability with LOLE and it shows that transmission capability connected with adjacent networks. This paper informs system operators and power suppliers of reliable information for operating power system.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.19-21
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• 2008

Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc. are becoming importance stage by stage because of considering effect of the environment. Solar energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy following wind energy. And, the solar/photovoltaic cell generators can not make two-state model as conventional generators, but should be modeled as multi-state model due to solar radiation random variation. The method of obtaining reliability evaluation index of solar cell generators is different from the conventional generators. This paper presents a basic study on reliability evaluation of power system considering solar cell generators with multi-states.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.07a
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• pp.271-272
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• 2008

Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc are becoming important stage by stage, considering the effect of environment. Wind energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy. What's more, due to wind speed random variation the wind turbine generators can not make two-state model as conventional generators. The method of obtaining reliability evaluation indices of wind turbine generators is different from the conventional generators. This paper presents a study on the reliability evaluation of power system considering wind turbine generators with a simplified multi-state model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.5C
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• pp.313-322
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• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types for infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard analyses. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, it is very difficult to handle a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity by deterministic approach, and the probabilistic approaches are known as more promising. Two types of probabilistic approaches are introduced including (1) the reliability analysis (to obtain probability of failure) for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk analysis of liquefaction for a specific soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using the new risk analysis method.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.8
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• pp.563-577
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• 2017

As the uncertainty of precipitation increases due to climate change, seasonal forecasting and the use of weather forecasts become essential for efficient water resources management. In this study, the categorical probabilistic long-term forecasts implemented by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since June 2014 was evaluated using assessment indicators of Hit Rate, Reliability Diagram, and Relative Operating Curve (ROC) and a technique for obtaining quantitative precipitation estimates based on probabilistic forecasts was proposed. The probabilistic long-term forecasts showed its maximum predictability of 48% and the quantified precipitation estimates were closely matched with actual observations; maximum correlation coefficient (R) in predictability evaluation for 100% accurate and actual weather forecasts were 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. A precipitation quantification approach utilizing probabilistic forecasts proposed in this study is expected to enable water management considering the uncertainty of precipitation. This method is also expected to be a useful tool for supporting decision-making in the long-term planning for water resources management and reservoir operations.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.895-904
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• 2015

This paper presents a probabilistic approach of reliability evaluation and economic assessment for solving transmission network expansion planning problems. Three methods are proposed for TNEP, which are reorganizing the existing power system focused on the buses of interest, selecting candidates using modified system operating state method with healthy, marginal and at-risk states, and finally choosing the optimal alternative using cost-optimization method. TNEP candidates can be selected based on the state reliability such as sufficient and insufficient indices, as proposed in this paper. The process of economic assessment involves the costs of construction, maintenance and operation, congestion, and outage. The case studies are carried out with modified IEEE-24 bus system and Jeju island power system expansion plan in Korea, to verify the proposed methodology.