• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제11권5호
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• pp.89-94
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• 2003

Rolling stock structures such as bogie frame and car body play an important role for the support of vehicle leading. In general, more than 25 years' durability is needed for them. A lot of study has been carried out for the prediction of the fatigue life of the bogie frame and car body in experimental and theoretical domains. One of the new methods is a probabilistic fatigue lift evaluation. The objective of this paper is to estimate the fatigue lift of the bogie frame of an electric car, which was developed by the Korea Railroad Research Institute (KRRI). We used two approaches. In the first approach probabilistic distribution of S-N curve and limit state function of the equivalent stress of the measured stress spectra are used. In the second approach, limit state function is also used. And load spectra measured by strain gauges are approximated by the two-parameter Weibull distribution. Other probabilistic variables are represented by log-normal and normal distributions. Finally, reliability index and structural integrity of the bogie frame are estimated.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제22권10호
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• pp.137-143
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• 2005

The integrity of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plant should be maintained sufficiently during operation. For sake of this, complicated assessment procedures are required such as fracture mechanics analysis, etc. The integrity assessment of tubes has been performed by using conventional deterministic approaches while there are many uncertainties to carry out a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic integrity assessment is considered as an alternative method for integrity assessment. The objectives of this study are to develop an integrity assessment system based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and to predict the failure probability of steam generator tubes containing an axial through-wall crack. The developed integrity assessment system consists of three evaluation modules, which apply first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. The system has been applied to predict failure probability of steam generator tubes and the estimation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment system.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2008년도 제39회 하계학술대회
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• pp.103-104
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• 2008

This paper proposes an alternative methodology for deciding an optimum deterministic reliability level (IRR; Installed Reserve Rate) by using probabilistic reliability criterion (LOLE; Loss of Load Expectation). Additionally, case studies using the proposed method induce the characteristics of relationship between the probabilistic reliability index (LOLE) and deterministic reliability index (IRR) for 2008 year in Korea power system. The case study presents a possibility that an optimum IRR level in Korea can be assessed using the proposed method. Korea power system has been using the LOLE criterion to determine the adequacy of installed capacity (ICAP) requirement. The criterion in Korea is that the loss of load expectation shall not exceed the available capacity more than five day in ten years (=0.5[days/year]). The probabilistic reliability evaluation and production cost simulation program which is called PRASim is used in order to evaluate the relationship and optimum IRR in this paper.

• 한국초전도ㆍ저온공학회논문지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.19-22
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• 2008

The power systems should be improved to reduce the number of black-out events occurring throughout the world. Quantitative evaluation of composite power system reliability is very important in a competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power systems under a deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. This paper presents sensitivity analysis of probabilistic reliability indices of Korea power systems with checking application of HTS-FCL.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.123-131
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• 1996

This paper presents the development of an algorithm for the reliability and life of a hypoid gear axle system (located in the last section of power train) in heavy vehicles. The algorithm is developed about expecting the reliability and service-life for applied loads on each component in the system using the Weibull's probabilistic distribution and the extended Palmgren's model. The probabilistic method is used to results. Also this model is involved in predicting the failure which is related to the number of load cycles with the approaching load. Then the precious evaluation of the reliability and life in the axle system can be effectively carried out. Thus the general procedures of a reliability and life design, including the mathematical formulation and numerical examples, are illustrated for a hypoid gear axle system.

• Composites Research
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.7-14
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• 2006

본 논문에서는 내압 하중을 받는 복합재 압력 용기의 신뢰도를 구하기 위해 확률적 강도 해석이 수행되었다. 이때 확률적 강도 해석은 점진적 파손 모델과 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션으로 구성된 확률 연속 파손 모델과 상용 유한 요소 해석 코드인 ABAQUS가 연계한 형태로서 복잡한 형상 및 경계 조건을 갖는 복합재 구조물의 확률적 파손 해석을 수행하게 된다. 설계확률 변수로서 복합재 층의 각 방향 별 강도가 고려되었다. 최종적으로, 확률 강도 해석을 통해 복합재 압력 용기의 파열 압력 분산 현상이 설명되었고, 복합재 압력 용기의 각 부위별 신뢰도 값이 제시되었다. 양산 중인 복합재 구조물인 경우, 재료 및 제작 공정의 불확실성이 구조물 성능에 미치는 영향이 더욱 커지게 되어 확률 강도 해석을 이용한 구조 설계가 필수적이다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2004년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.195-198
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• 2004

In recent, the Importance and necessity of some studies on reliability evaluation of grid comes from the recent black-out accidents occurred in the world. The quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important under competitive electricity environment. Accurate probabilistic reliability evaluation depends on assessment of forced outage rate of elements, generators, transmission lines. This paper describes basic theory of relationship between outage rates and reliability evaluation for assessing FOR(forced outage rate) of elements of power system. In case study, FORs assessed and supplied from Canada Electricity Association is introduced and FORs assessed from using actual historical data from 1997 to 2002 for transmission lines of KEPCO system.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제57권7호
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• pp.1129-1134
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• 2008

This paper proposes a reliability evaluation for interconnection planning using a tie line equivalent assisting generator model (TEAG) that considers the uncertainties of the interconnected transmission systems and the tie lines. Development of this model was triggered by the need to perform probabilistic reliability evaluations on the NEAREST (North East Asia Region Electric Systems Tied) interconnection. The TEAG is the basis for the newly developed interconnection systems reliability evaluation computer program, NEAREL. The model is capable of considering uncertainties associated with generators, tie lines, and the tied grids. Reliability evaluations for six interconnection scenarios involving the power systems of six countries in the Asian north eastern region were performed using NEAREL. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine reasonable tie line capacities for three interconnected country scenarios of the six countries. Test results and summarized comments of the scenarios are included in the paper.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.67-70
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• 2003

In recent, the importance and necessity of some studies on reliability evaluation of grid come from the recent black-out accidents occurred in the world. The quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important under competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power under the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. The various results of many case studies for the IEEE 25buses system using the Transmission Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Systems(TRELSS) Version 5_1, a program made in EPRI are introduced in this paper. Some sensitivity analysis has been included. This paper suggests that the some important input parameters of the TRELSS can be determined optimally from this sensitivity analysis for high reliability level operation of a system.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.51-58
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• 1992

본 연구의 목적은 피로파괴에 대한 해양 구조물의 체계신뢰도해석에 관한 연구이다. 제 2차 모멘트 신뢰도 방법에 기초하여 제안한 새로운 두 방법을 사용하였는데, 하나는 개선된 제 1계 신뢰도방법(IFORM)이고 다른 하나는 수정된 Probabilistic Network Evaluation Technique(MPNET)이다. 이상화된 병렬부재모형을 사용하여 부재당 다수의 연결절점으로 구성된 여러 부재들을 가진 경우에 대하여 진전하는 피로파괴에 대한 신뢰도해석들을 수행하였다. 수치해석결과로부터 본 논문에서 사용한 방법들이 재래적인 방법인, 제 1계 신뢰도방법(FORM)과 PNET 방법보다 더 정확한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 이러한 경향은 체계의 파괴모우드 수가 증가됨에 따라 더욱 분명하였다.