• 한국안전학회지
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.66-73
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• 2021

This report documents the results of an at-power internal events Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for a Korea research reactor (KRR). The aim of the study is to determine the accident sequences, construct an internal level 1 PSA model, and estimate the core damage frequency (CDF). The accident quantification is performed using the AIMS-PSA software version 1.2c along with a fault tree reliability evaluation expert (FTREX) quantification engine. The KRR PSA model is quantified using a cut-off value of 1.0E-15/yr to eliminate the non-effective minimal cut sets (MCSs). The final result indicates a point estimate of 4.55E-06/yr for the overall CDF attributable to internal initiating events in the core damage state for the KRR. Loss of Electric Power (LOEP) is the predominant contributor to the total CDF via a single initiating event (3.68E-6/yr), providing 80.9% of the CDF. The second largest contributor is the beam tube loss of coolant accident (LOCA), which accounts for 9.9% (4.49E-07/yr) of the CDF.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.177-188
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• 2024

The fatigue-induced sequential failure of a structure having structural redundancy requires system-level analysis to account for stress redistribution. System reliability-based design optimization (SRBDO) for preventing fatigue-initiated structural failure is numerically costly owing to the inclusion of probabilistic constraints. This study incorporates the Branch-and-Bound method employing system reliability Bounds (termed the B³ method), a failure-path structural system reliability analysis approach, with a metaheuristic optimization algorithm, namely grey wolf optimization (GWO), to obtain the optimal design of structures under fatigue-induced system failure. To further improve the efficiency of this new optimization framework, an additional bounding rule is proposed in the context of SRBDO against fatigue using the B³ method. To demonstrate the proposed method, it is applied to complex problems, a multilayer Daniels system and a three-dimensional tripod jacket structure. The system failure probability of the optimal design is confirmed to be below the target threshold and verified using Monte Carlo simulation. At earlier stages of the optimization, a smaller number of limit-state function evaluation is required, which increases the efficiency. In addition, the proposed method can allocate limited materials throughout the structure optimally so that the optimally-designed structure has a relatively large number of failure paths with similar failure probability.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권3호
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• pp.371-381
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• 2016

This paper presents a study on reliability assessment and new contribution function development of power system including Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). This paper develops and proposes new reliability contribution function of BESS installed at wind farms. The methodology of reliability assessment, using Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) method to simulate sample state duration, is proposed in detail. Forced Outage Rate(FOR) considered probabilistic approach for conventional generators is modelled in this paper. The penetration of large wind power can make risk to power system adequacy, quality and stability. Although the fluctuation of wind power, BESS installed at wind farms may smooth the wind power fluctuation. Using small size system as similar as Jeju island power system, a case study of reliability evaluation and new proposed contribution function of power system containing WTG combined with BESS is demonstrated in this paper, which would contributes to BESS reliability contribution and assessment tools of actual power system in future.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.491-501
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• 2021

This paper aims to evaluate the mechanical integrity for Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) cladding under lateral loads during transportation. The evaluation process requires a conservative consideration of the degradation conditions of SNF cladding, especially the hydride effect, which reduces the ductility of the cladding. The dynamic forces occurring during the drop event are pinch force, axial force and bending moment. Among those forces, axial force and bending moment can induce transverse tearing of cladding. Our assessment of 14 × 14 PWR SNF was performed using finite element analysis considering SNF characteristics. We also considered the probabilistic procedures with a Monte Carlo method and a reliability evaluation. The evaluation results revealed that there was no probability of damage under normal conditions, and that under accident conditions the probability was small for transverse failure mode.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제34권11호
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• pp.1705-1713
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• 2010

피로시험의 결과가 큰 편차를 보이는 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부에 대해서 통계적 피로수명 평가법을 이용하여 신뢰도 높은 피로수명을 추정하고자 한다. 저상버스 차체에 사용되는 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부를 절취하여 시험대상으로 하였으며, 이 조인트 시편으로 외팔보형 피로굽힘시험을 수행하였다. 피로시험 데이터를 정규분포, 대수정규분포, 와이블 분포를 이용하여 근접시킨 피로수명 곡선들과 각각 비교함으로써 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부의 내구수명 추정에 가장 적합한 확률분포를 선정하였다. 선정된 와이블 확률분포를 이용해 확률-응력-수명(P-S-N) 곡선을 구함으로써 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부에 대한 통계적 수명예측 평가절차와 신뢰성설계의 기초자료를 제시하였다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2012

Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.97-108
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• 2002

This study deals with the application of knowledge-based engineering and a methodology for the assessment & measurement of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety of industrial systems using fault-tree representation. A fuzzy methodology for fault-tree evaluation seems to be an alternative solution to overcome the drawbacks of the conventional approach. To improve the quality of results, the membership functions must be approximated based on heuristic considerations. Conventionally, it is not always easy to obtain a system reliability for components with different individual failure probability density functions(p.d.f.), We utilize fuzzy set theory to solve the adequacy of the conventional probability in accounting and processing of built-in uncertainties in the probabilistic data. The purpose of this study is to propose the framework of knowledge-based engineering through integrating the various sources of knowledge involved in a FTA.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1991년도 하계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.402-405
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• 1991

This paper represents a new method for computing reliability indices by using Large Deviation method which is one of the probabilistic production cost simulations. The reliability measures are based on the models used for the loads and for the generating unit failure states. In computing these measures it has been tacitly assumed that the values of all parameters in the models are precisely known. In fact, however, some of these values must often be chosen with a considerable degree of uncertainty involved. This is particularly true for the forecast peak loads in the load model, where there is an inherent uncertainty in the method of forecasting, which are frequently based on insufficient statistics. In this paper, the effect of load forecasting uncertainty on the LOLP(Loss of Load Probability), is investigated. By applying the Large Deviation method to the IEEE Rilability Test System, it is verified that the proposed method is generally very accurate and very fast for computing system reliability indices.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제63권7호
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• pp.867-874
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• 2014

The pumped storage power plants have excellent load following characteristics. It can also be committed quickly for synchronous reserve when it is in the generating mode because it can readily increase its generating power and, consequently, increases the overall system reliability. There are strong incentives for standing the system reliability. Additionally, $CO_2$ emission can be typically impacted due to operation of pumped generators. The increase or decrease of $CO_2$ depends on the generation mix. This paper proposes evaluation of reliability, economy and environment of power system considering pumped generator. This paper describes three case studies of the reliability and economy and environment according to capacity factor and storage capacity of pumped generators. The probabilistic production simulation model is used in this paper. The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated by simulation studies for a real size power system model on the $5^{th}$ power plan in Korea.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.90-97
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• 2016

Purpose: Majority of bridges and roads in Gangwon Province have been carrying loads associated with heavy materials such as rocks, mining products, and cement. This location-specific live loads have contributed to the present situation of overloading, compared to other provinces in Korea. However, the bridges in Gangwon province are designed by national bridge design specification, without considering the location-specific live load characteristics. Therefore, this study focuses on the real traffic data accumulated on regional weighing station to verify the live load characteristics, including actual live load gross vehicle weight, axle weight axle spacings, and number of trucks. Methods: In order to take into account the location specific live load, a governmental weigh station (38th national highway Miro) have been selected and the passing truck data are processed. Based on the truck survey, trucks are categorized into 3 different shapes, and each shape has been idealized into normal distribution. Then, the resulting survey data are processed to predict the target maximum live load values, including the axle loads and gross vehicle weights in 75 years service life span. Results: The results are compared to the nationally used DB-24 live loads, and the results show that nationally recognized DB-24 live load does not sufficiently represent real traffic in mountaineous region in Gangwon province. Conclusion: The comparison results in the recommendation of location-specific live load that should be taken into account for bridge design and evaluation.