• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.582-591
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• 2010

Probabilistic modeling and analysis of correlation metrics have been receiving considerable interest for a long period of time because they can be used to evaluate the performance of communication receivers, including satellite broadcasting receivers. Although differential correlators have a simple structure and practical importance over channels with severe frequency offsets, closedform expressions for the output distribution of differential correlators do not exist. In this paper, we present detection error probability expressions for frame synchronization using differential correlation, and demonstrate their accuracy over channel parameters of practical interest. The derived formulas are presented in terms of the Marcum Q-function, and do not involve numerical integration, unlike the formulas derived in some previous studies. We first determine the distributions and error probabilities for single-span differential correlation metric, and then extend the result to multispan differential correlation metric with certain approximations. The results can be used for the performance analysis of various detection strategies that utilize the differential correlation structure.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.15-19
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• 2015

수문학에서 사용되는 강우-유출 모델의 경우 선형적인 시스템을 기반으로 유효강수량으로부터 시간적 지연을 통해서 유출량이 결정되는데 그 양은 강우량의 선형적인 비로 표현되어서 결국 합성곱을 통해 해석되게 된다. 또한 자료에 대한 확률론적 분석에 많이 이용되는 비매개변수 핵밀도함수의 경우, 핵(Kernel)의 의미자체가 합성곱에서 나온 것으로서 개개의 자료를 바탕으로 핵을 통해 매끄러운 확률밀도함수를 구하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 합성곱을 바탕으로 강우-유출 모델과 비매개변수 확률밀도함수를 해석하는 방법에 대해서 되짚어 보고 그 공통적인 특성과 다른 점을 수학적으로 나타내 줌으로써 사용되는 합성곱 함수의 유용성에 대해서 논하였다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제41권11호
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• pp.1099-1108
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• 2017

동일한 시험조건에서 반복시험으로부터 얻어진 실험 데이터는 이론적으로 동일한 값을 가져야 한다. 그러나 실제 데이터 결과는 다양한 환경 요소들에 의해 발생하는 오차와 불확실성을 가지게 되어 시험 값이 변동량을 가진다. 이는 정확한 실험 데이터를 얻는데 제한사항이 된다. 본 연구에서는 확률통계 방법을 이용하여 불확실성을 가진 입력변수의 유효범위를 결정하는 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 또한 실제 현장에서 사용되는 볼트 체결 마찰계수 데이터를 이용하여 제안된 알고리즘을 적용하여 불확실성을 내재한 입력변수의 유효범위를 산출하고 이에 대한 신뢰성 평가를 하였다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.49-57
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 보행자와 차량의 충돌 시 보행자의 상해를 감소시키기 위한 충돌안전기준의 도입에 따른 보행자 사망자수 감소 효과를 추정하는 방법론을 개발하였다. 국내 교통환경 특성을 반영한 보행자 사망확률모형을 개발하고, 사망자 감소 효과 추정에 반영하였다. 사고재현을 통해 추정된 충돌속도를 보행자 사망확률모형의 주요 변수로 사용하였다. 모형의 개발을 위해서는 logistic regression 기법을 적용하였으며, 충돌안전기준의 주요 변수인 HIC(Head Injury Criterion)와 충돌속도의 변화에 따른 사망자수 감소효과를 계량화하여 제시하였다. 제안된 방법론은 향후 국내 실정에 부합되는 충돌안전기준의 개발, 보행자 보호를 위한 첨단 차량의 개발, 보행자 안전을 위한 정책 수립 등을 지원하는 중요한 역할을 수행할 것으로 기대된다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.619-632
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• 2014

The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method has been widely used to evaluate the uncertainty of a best-estimate thermal hydraulic system code against a figure of merit. This uncertainty is typically evaluated based on the physical model's uncertainties determined by expert judgment. This paper introduces the application of data assimilation methodology to determine the uncertainty bands of the physical models, e.g., the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters, based upon the statistical approach rather than expert judgment. Data assimilation suggests a mathematical methodology for the best estimate bias and the uncertainties of the physical models which optimize the system response following the calibration of model parameters and responses. The mathematical approaches include deterministic and probabilistic methods of data assimilation to solve both linear and nonlinear problems with the a posteriori distribution of parameters derived based on Bayes' theorem. The inverse problem was solved analytically to obtain the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters assuming Gaussian distributions for the parameters and responses, and a sampling method was utilized to illustrate the non-Gaussian a posteriori distributions of parameters. SPACE is used to demonstrate the data assimilation method by determining the bias and the uncertainty bands of the physical models employing Bennett's heated tube test data and Becker's post critical heat flux experimental data. Based on the results of the data assimilation process, the major sources of the modeling uncertainties were identified for further model development.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.207-220
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• 2005

Nuclear power plants (NPP) are complex socio-technological systems that rely on the success of both hardware and human components. Empirical studies of plant operating experience show that human errors are important contributors to accidents and incidents, and that organizational factors play an important role in creating contexts for human errors. Current probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) do not explicitly model the systematic contribution of organizational factors to safety. As some countries, like the United States, are moving towards increased use of risk information in the regulation and operation of nuclear facilities, PSA quality has been identified as an area for improvement. The modeling of human errors, and underlying organizational weaknesses at the root of these errors, are important sources of uncertainty in existing PSAs and areas of on-going research. This paper presents a review of research into the following questions: Is there evidence that organizational factors are important to NPP safety? How do organizations contribute to safety in NPP operations? And how can these organizational contributions be captured more explicitly in PSA? We present a few past incidents that illustrate the potential safety implications of organizational deficiencies, some mechanisms by which organizational factors contribute to NPP risk, and some of the methods proposed in the literature for performing root-cause analyses and including organizational factors in PSA.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.69-76
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• 2010

The segmentation of moving object in video sequence is a core technique of intelligent image processing system such as video surveillance, traffic monitoring and human tracking. A typical method to segment a moving region from the background is the background subtraction. The steps of background subtraction involve calculating a reference image, subtracting new frame from reference image and then thresholding the subtracted result. One of famous background modeling is Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Even though the method is known efficient and exact, GMM suffers from a problem that includes false pixels in ROI (region of interest), specifically shadow pixels. These false pixels cause fail of the post-processing tasks such as tracking and object recognition. This paper presents a method for removing false pixels included in ROT. First, we subdivide a ROI by using shape characteristics of detected objects. Then, a method is proposed to classify pixels from using histogram characteristic and comparing difference of energy that converts the color value of pixel into grayscale value, in order to estimate whether the pixels belong to moving object area or shadow area. The method is applied to real video sequence and the performance is verified.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.104-112
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• 2008

본 논문은 변전소 신뢰도 평가를 위하여 개발한 컴퓨터 프로그램을 소개하고 있다. 개발한 프로그램은 시스템상태천이 샘플링(system state transition sampling)을 이용한 몬테카를로 법을 관간으로 하고 있다. 시스템상태천이 샘플링은 평가 결과를 신속히 얻을 수 있지만, 평가 대상이 지수분포(exponential distribution)로 모형화된 경우에만 적용할 수 있다는 단점이 있다. 본 프로그램에서는 정전을 유발하는 사건간의 배타성을 가정함으로써 고장 수리시간의 모형으로 비지수분포를 사용할 수 있도록 하였다. 개발한 프로그램을 신뢰도 평가결과가 잘 알려진 시스템에 적용하여 개발한 프로그램의 신뢰성을 증명하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권10호
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• pp.2238-2249
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• 2020

In a seismic PSA, dependency among seismic failures of components has not been explicitly modeled in the fault tree or event tree. This dependency is separately identified and assigned with numbers that range from zero to unity that reflect the level of the mutual correlation among seismic failures. Because of complexity and difficulty in calculating combination probabilities of correlated seismic failures in complex seismic event tree and fault tree, there has been a great need of development to explicitly model seismic correlation in terms of seismic common cause failures (CCFs). If seismic correlations are converted into seismic CCFs, it is possible to calculate an accurate value of a top event probability or frequency of a complex seismic fault tree by using the same procedure as for internal, fire, and flooding PSA. This study first proposes a methodology to explicitly model seismic dependency by converting correlated seismic failures into seismic CCFs. As a result, this methodology will allow systems analysts to quantify seismic risk as what they have done with the CCF method in internal, fire, and flooding PSA.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.153-165
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• 1992

The objectives of this study were to develop a probabilistic model for both hypotheses testing and mobility prediction. Methodologies being used for the analysis include multivariated analysis for descriptive statistics and logit model for hypotheses testing and prediction. The study used questionaire survey data conducted by Korean Research Institute for Human Settlements (KRIHS) in 1988. There were a total of 1,620 Samples, and both SPSS and Limdep software packages were used for statistical analysis and model testing. The major findings were highlighted as follows; The residential mobility over family life span by the social class were developed with the use of the probability model. Most of households in low class moved downwardly. They had lived the small-owned single detached house in first family life span and moved into the small-rented single detached house in next family life span. Most of households in middle class moved upwardly. They had lived the small-owned apartment in first family life span and moved into the large-owned single detached house in last family life span. Most of households in high class horizontally. They had lived the large-owned single detached house in first family life span and moved into the same one except in last family life span.