• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic method

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Design and Evaluation of a Fuzzy Logic based Multi-hop Broadcast Algorithm for IoT Applications (IoT 응용을 위한 퍼지 논리 기반 멀티홉 방송 알고리즘의 설계 및 평가)

  • Bae, Ihn-han;Kim, Chil-hwa;Noh, Heung-tae
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2016
  • In the future network such as Internet of Things (IoT), the number of computing devices are expected to grow exponentially, and each of the things communicates with the others and acquires information by itself. Due to the growing interest in IoT applications, the broadcasting in Opportunistic ad-hoc networks such as Machine-to-Machine (M2M) is very important transmission strategy which allows fast data dissemination. In distributed networks for IoT, the energy efficiency of the nodes is a key factor in the network performance. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy logic based probabilistic multi-hop broadcast (FPMCAST) algorithm which statistically disseminates data accordingly to the remaining energy rate, the replication density rate of sending node, and the distance rate between sending and receiving nodes. In proposed FPMCAST, the inference engine is based the fuzzy rule base which is consists of 27 if-then rules. It maps input and output parameters to membership functions of input and output. The output of fuzzy system defines the fuzzy sets for rebroadcasting probability, and defuzzification is used to extract a numeric result from the fuzzy set. Here Center of Gravity (COG) method is used to defuzzify the fuzzy set. Then, the performance of FPMCAST is evaluated through a simulation study. From the simulation, we demonstrate that the proposed FPMCAST algorithm significantly outperforms flooding and gossiping algorithms. Specially, the FPMCAST algorithm has longer network lifetime because the residual energy of each node consumes evenly.

Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on External Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Method (확률론적 기법을 활용한 건설현장 외부 인명피해 정량화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2018
  • The researches have only conducted regarding construction safety management and risk on interior construction site(workers) and is insufficient about the exterior construction site(third party). As a result, ordinary people who were near construction sites have injured and hold a negative view when they think about the construction industry because construction industry have been exposed to them having a high accidents rate through media. In addition, the importance of industrial disaster prevention is emphasized at this point in time, the overall safety management system should be constructed with considering construction site external(third human) for improving the negative image of the construction industry among ordinary people. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the quantification model of human accident utilizing the insurance claim payout occurred construction site exterior(third party). In the future, it can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site interior exterior and development for forecasting control system of human accident.

Exposure and Risk Assessment of Benzene and PM10 for Sub-populations using Monte-Carlo Simulations (Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통한 부분 인구집단별 벤젠 및 PM10의 노출 및 위해성 평가)

  • Park, Jinhyeon;Yang, So Young;Park, Yunkyung;Ryu, Hyeonsu;Kim, Eunchae;Choe, Youngtae;Heo, Jung;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.247-257
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The Korea Ministry of Environment regulates concentrations of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) through Atmosphere Environmental Standards to protect public health from HAPs. However, simply determining the exceedance of HAP concentrations has several limitations and more comprehensive assessment is required. In addition, integrated risk assessment is needed considering exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoor as well as indoor environments. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk by sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk for Koreans. Methods: In this study, we calculated time-weighted average exposure concentrations for benzene and $PM_{10}$ among preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly using residential time and concentrations for indoor (house, school or workplace, other), outdoor, and transport by the meta-analysis method. The risk assessments were conducted by excess cancer risk and disease death risk using 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in their house, workplace, or school, respectively. The more than 99% excess cancer risk for benzene exceed 1.0E-06 in all sub-populations and lifetime. The acute disease death risk for $PM_{10}$ for housewifes and workers for lifetime were 3.35E-04 and 3.18E-04, and chronic disease death risks were 2.84E-03 and 2.70E-03, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of benzene and $PM_{10}$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewifes and workers were assessed. Benzene showed risky results for this study. All disease death risks of $PM_{10}$ were higher than 1.0E-04 and showed different risks by sub-population. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment to benzene and $PM_{10}$.

Exposure and Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone for Sub-population Groups using Monte-Carlo Simulations (Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통한 부분 인구집단별 이산화질소와 오존의 노출 및 위해성 평가)

  • Park, Jinhyeon;Ryu, Hyeonsu;Yang, So Young;Park, Yunkyung;Heo, Jung;Kim, Eunchae;Choe, Youngtae;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: Although the risk assessments for nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$) and ozone ($O_3$) have been extensively studied, most of the existing risk assessments were limited mainly to indoor environments such as workplaces, schools, and multi-use facilities. Therefore, integrated risk assessment is needed to consider exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoors. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk among sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk of Koreans. Methods: In this study, we estimated time-weighted average exposure concentrations of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ for preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors using residential time and indoor concentrations (house, school or workplace, other), outdoors, and transport by meta-analysis method. The risk for $NO_2$ and $O_3$ were assessed by hazard quotient using reference concentrations 30 and 60 ppb, respectively. The risk assessments were conducted through 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in a house, school, or workplace, respectively. The risk assessment for the lifetime of a housewife and a worker showed that 33.8 and 28.4% of hazard quotients of $NO_2$ exceed 1, respectively, and more than 99% of hazard quotient of $O_3$ were less than 1. Conclusions: The risk of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewives and workers were assessed. The risk for $NO_2$ was higher than for $O_3$ and showed a different risk by sub-population group. Both $NO_2$ and $O_3$ showed a higher risk for housewives than for workers. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment for $NO_2$ and $O_3$.

A method in calculation watershed precipitation using long-term probabilistic forecasts for water management (확률장기예보 물관리 활용을 위한 유역강수량 산정 방법 연구)

  • Kang, Noel;Kang, Jaewon;Hwang, Jin;Suh, Ae-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.526-526
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    • 2015
  • 우리나라는 국토의 대부분이 산악으로 이루어진 지형학적 특성과 여름철에 비가 집중된다는 기상학적 요인으로 인해 물관리가 어려운 편이다. 최근에는 기후변화로 인한 이상 기상 현상으로 돌발성 호우와 가뭄 등의 발생 빈도가 증대되면서 용수공급 관리는 더욱 더 어려움을 겪고 있다. 이러한 가운데 장기 기상정보는 안정적인 이수기 용수 공급을 위한 댐 수위 운영 및 홍수기 운영 목표 수위 계획 수립 등에 활용도가 매우 높다. 최근 기상청은 2014년 6월 이후부터 기존의 장기예보를 확률 예보 방식으로 변경하면서 기온과 강수량에 대하여 평년 대비 높음(많음), 비슷, 낮음(적음)으로 단순 예보하는 기존의 방식에서 발생가능성에 대해 카테고리 별로 확률(%)을 발표하고 있다. 기후변화의 불확실성이 증가하는 가운데 개정된 새로운 형태의 확률장기예보를 물관리에 정량적으로 적용하여 보다 정확도 높은 중장기 물관리 체계가 구축되어야 할 것이다. 본 연구는 현재 기상청에서 제공하는 확률장기예보를 실제 댐 운영에 적용하기 위한 연구로서 과거 자료와 확률장기예보를 조합하여 2014년 6월~2015년 2월의 유역 강수량의 확률 분포를 전망하였다. 대상 지역은 안동댐 유역으로 과거 자료는 최근린법에 기초한 기상청 산하 관측소인 안동, 태백, 봉화, 영주의 1986~2013년의 월 자료를 사용하였고, Thissen법을 근거로 유역 강수량을 계산하였다. 확률장기예보는 안동댐 유역을 포함하는 대구 경북지역을 대상으로 한 동일한 기간의 예보 자료를 활용하였다. 과거 강수량은 각 월별로 적합도 검정 후 Gamma분포를 채택하였으며 이를 기반으로 예보의 카테고리 별 기준값을 산정한 후 장기예보의 확률정보를 조합하여 강수량의 확률 분포를 작성하였다. 이를 2014년 6월~2015년 2월의 실제 강수량과 비교한 결과 2014년 11월과 2015년 1월 경우 가장 큰 확률의 카테고리 강수 범위 안에 실제 강수량이 포함되었으나 나머지 월에서는 실제 값과 카테고리 확률 간에 상이한 결과를 보였다. 본 연구는 예보 자료 수의 제한 및 안동댐과 예보 구역의 지역 차에 의한 자료 차이 등이 배제되어 있기 때문에 참고 자료로만 활용 될 수 있을 것이라고 판단되며, 확률장기예보 정보를 이용하여 유역 강수량의 확률 분포를 산정함으로서 물관리 부문에서 예보의 정량적 적용 가능성을 최초로 제시했다는 것에 의의가 있다. 추후 기후 모델 특성과 확률장기예보 산출 기법 등을 보다 심도 깊게 고려하여 정확도 개선에 대한 연구가 보완되어야 할 것으로 판단된다.

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Analytical Methods for the Analysis of Structural Connectivity in the Mouse Brain (마우스 뇌의 구조적 연결성 분석을 위한 분석 방법)

  • Im, Sang-Jin;Baek, Hyeon-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.507-518
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    • 2021
  • Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a key technology that has been seeing increasing use in studying the structural and functional innerworkings of the brain. Analyzing the variability of brain connectome through tractography analysis has been used to increase our understanding of disease pathology in humans. However, there lacks standardization of analysis methods for small animals such as mice, and lacks scientific consensus in regard to accurate preprocessing strategies and atlas-based neuroinformatics for images. In addition, it is difficult to acquire high resolution images for mice due to how significantly smaller a mouse brain is compared to that of humans. In this study, we present an Allen Mouse Brain Atlas-based image data analysis pipeline for structural connectivity analysis involving structural region segmentation using mouse brain structural images and diffusion tensor images. Each analysis method enabled the analysis of mouse brain image data using reliable software that has already been verified with human and mouse image data. In addition, the pipeline presented in this study is optimized for users to efficiently process data by organizing functions necessary for mouse tractography among complex analysis processes and various functions.

The Effect Analysis of COVID-19 vaccination on social distancing (코로나19 백신접종이 사회적 거리두기 효과에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Moon, Su Chan
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present an appropriate management plan as a supplement to the scientific evidence of the currently operated distancing system for preventing COVID-19. The currently being used mathematical models are expressed as simultaneous ordinary differential equations, there is a problem in that it is difficult to use them for the management of entry and exit of small business owners. In order to supplement this point, in this paper, a method for quantitatively expressing the risk of infection by people who gather is presented in consideration of the allowable risk given to the gathering space, the basic infection reproduction index, and the risk reduction rate due to vaccination. A simple quantitative model was developed that manages the probability of infection in a probabilistic level according to a set of visitors by considering both the degree of infection risk according to the vaccination status (non-vaccinated, primary inoculation, and complete vaccination) and the epidemic status of the virus. In a given example using the model, the risk was reduced to 55% when 20% of non-vaccinated people were converted to full vaccination. It was suggested that management in terms of quarantine can obtain a greater effect than medical treatment. Based on this, a generalized model that can be applied to various situations in consideration of the type of vaccination and the degree of occurrence of confirmed cases was also presented. This model can be used to manage the total risk of people gathered at a certain space in a real time, by calculating individual risk according to the type of vaccine, the degree of inoculation, and the lapse of time after inoculation.

Estimation Method of Key Block Size on a Large Scale Rock Slope by Simulation of 3-D Rock Joint System (3차원 절리계 모사를 통한 대규모 암반비탈면 파괴블록크기 추정방법)

  • Kim, Dong-Hee;Jung, Hyuk-Il;Kim, Seok-Ki;Lee, Woo-Jin;Ryu, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.10
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2007
  • Accurate evaluation of the slope stability by assuming failure block as the entire slope is considered to be apposite for the small scale slope, whereas it is not the case for the large scale slope. Hence, appropriate estimation of a failure block size is required since the safety factor and the joint strength parameters are the function of the failure block size. In this paper, the size of failure block was investigated by generating 3-dimensional rock joint system based on statistical data of joints obtained from research slope, such as joint orientation, spacing and 3-dimensional joint intensity. The result indicates that 33 potential failure blocks exist in research slope, as large as 1.4 meters at least and 38.7 meters at most, and average block height is 15.2 meters. In addition, the data obtained from 3 dimensional joint system were directly applicable to the probability analysis and 2 and 3 dimensional discontinuity analysis.

Clarifying the Meaning of 'Scientific Explanation' for Science Teaching and Learning (과학 학습지도를 위한 '과학적 설명'의 의미 명료화)

  • Jongwon Park;Hye-Gyoung Yoon;Insun Lee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.509-520
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    • 2023
  • Scientific explanation is the main goal of scientists' scientific practice, and the science curriculum also includes developing students' abilities to construct scientific explanations as a major goal. Thus, clarifying its meaning is an important issue in the science education community. In this paper, the researchers identified three perspectives on 'scientific explanation' based on the scoping review method (Deductive-Nomological, Probabilistic, and Pragmatic explanation models). We argued that it is important to clarify and distinguish the meanings of 'scientific explanation' from other concepts used in science education, such as 'description', 'prediction', 'hypothesis', and 'argument' based on a review of the literature. It is also pointed out that there is a difference between 'scientific explanation' as a product and 'explaining scientifically' as communication, and several ways to revise achievement standard statements in the science curriculum are suggested, to guide students to construct scientific explanations and to help students to explain scientifically. By adopting the three scientific explanation models, the important factors to be considered were classified and organized, and examples of science learning activities for scientific explanation considering such factors were suggested. It is hoped that the discussion in this study will help establish clearer learning goals in science learning related to scientific explanation and aid the design of more appropriate learning activities accordingly.

Determinants of Consumer Preference by type of Accommodation: Two Step Cluster Analysis (이단계 군집분석에 의한 농촌관광 편의시설 유형별 소비자 선호 결정요인)

  • Park, Duk-Byeong;Yoon, Yoo-Shik;Lee, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2007
  • 1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.

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