• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.9
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• pp.3324-3335
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• 2022

Several countries show interest in the Generation-IV power reactor innovative small module (PRISM), including: Canada, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. Generation IV International Forum (GIF) has recommended the utilizing of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in evaluating the safety of Generation-IV reactors. This paper reviews the PSA performed for PRISM using SAPHIRE 7.27 code. This work shows that the core damage frequency (CDF) of PRISM for a single module is estimated by 8.5E-8/year which is lower than the Generation-IV target that is 1E-6 core damage per year. The social risk of PRISM (likelihood of latent cancer fatality) with evacuation is estimated by 9.0E-12/year which is much lower than the basic safety objective (BSO) that is 1E-7/year. The social risk without evacuation is estimated by 1.2E- 11/year which is also much lower than the BSO. For the individual risk (likelihood of prompt fatality), it is concluded that it can be considered negligible with evacuation (1.0E-13/year). Assuming no evacuation, the individual risk is 2.7E-10/year which is again much lower than the BSO. In comparison with other PSAs performed for similar sodium fast reactors (SFRs), it shows that PRISM concept has the lowest CDF.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.31-41
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• 1988

Recently, the offshore structures are increasingly constructed to explore the natural resources. These offshore structures are to be designed to resist the repetitive wave forces. A probabilistic method for the fatigue analysis of offshore concrete structures is presented in this study. The present spectral fatigue analysis calculates wave forces first and then the transfer functions for unit waves from which stress spectra are determined. The calculated fatigue stresses may then be used to evaluate the fatigue damage of concrete structures. A simplified model for the estimation of fatigue damage of the structures, which employs only the probabilistic moments of the peak stress distribution without direct integration, is also proposed. The present study allows more realistic fatigue analysis of offshore concrete structures.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.169-184
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• 2022

The importance of seismicity in developing countries and the strengthening of buildings is a topic of major importance. Therefore, the study of several solutions with the development of new technologies is of great importance to investigate the damage on retrofitted structures by using probabilistic methods. The Federal Emergency Management Agency considers three types of performance levels by considering different scenarios, intensity and duration. The selection and scaling of ground motions mainly depends on the aim of the study. Intensity-based assessments are the most common and compute the response of buildings for a specified seismic intensity. Assessments based on scenarios estimate the response of buildings to different earthquake scenarios. A risk-based assessment is considered as one of the most effective. This research represents a practical method for developing countries where exists many active faults, tall buildings and lack of good implementable approaches. Therefore, to achieve the main goal, two high-rise steel buildings have been modeled and assessed. The contribution of buckling-restrained braces in the elastic design of both buildings is firstly verified. In the nonlinear static range, both buildings presented repairable damage at the central top part and some life safety hinges at the bottom. The nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis was applied by 15 representative/scaled accelerograms to obtain levels of performance and fragility curves. The results shown that by using probabilistic methods, it is possible to estimate the probability of collapse of retrofitted buildings by buckling-restrained braces and tuned mass dampers, which are practical retrofitting options to protect existing structures against earthquakes.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.191-208
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• 2015

The sensitivity-based finite element model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection of structures based on measured modal parameters. Finding an optimization technique with high efficiency and fast convergence is one of the key issues for model updating-based damage detection. A new simple and computationally efficient optimization algorithm is proposed and applied to damage detection by using finite element model updating. The proposed method combines the Gauss-Newton method with region truncation of each iterative step, in which not only the constraints are introduced instead of penalty functions, but also the searching steps are restricted in a controlled region. The developed algorithm is illustrated by a numerically simulated 25-bar truss structure, and the results have been compared and verified with those obtained from the trust region method. In order to investigate the reliability of the proposed method in damage detection of structures, the influence of the uncertainties coming from measured modal parameters on the statistical characteristics of detection result is investigated by Monte-Carlo simulation, and the probability of damage detection is estimated using the probabilistic method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.67 no.6
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• pp.587-601
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• 2018

Elevated water tanks are inverted pendulum type structures where drift limit is an important criterion for seismic design and performance evaluation. Explicit drift criteria for elevated water tanks are not available in the literature. In this study, probabilistic approach is used to determine maximum drift limit for damage state of yielding and damage state of collapse for the elevated water tanks supported on RC frame staging. The two damage states are defined using results of incremental dynamic analysis wherein a total of 2160 nonlinear time history analyses are performed using twelve artificial spectrum compatible ground motions. Analytical fragility curves are developed using two-parameter lognormal distribution. The maximum allowable drifts corresponding to yield and collapse level requirements are estimated for different tank capacities. Finally, a single fragility curve is developed which provides maximum drift values for the different probability of damage. Further, for rational consideration of the uncertainties in design, three confidence levels are selected and corresponding drift limits for damage states of yielding and collapse are proposed. These values of maximum drift can be used in performance-based seismic design for a particular damage state depending on the level of confidence.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.269-285
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• 2007

This paper assesses the damage to high-set rectangular-plan houses with low-pitch gable roofs (built in the 1960 and 70s in the northern parts of Australia) to wind speeds experienced in tropical cyclones. The study estimates the likely failure mode and percentage of failure for a representative proportion of houses with increasing wind speed. Structural reliability concepts are used to determine the levels of damage. The wind load and the component connection strengths are treated as random variables with log-normal distributions. These variables are derived from experiments, structural analysis, damage investigations and experience. This study also incorporates progressive failures and considers the inter-dependency between the structural components in the house, when estimating the types and percentages of the overall failures in the population of these houses. The progressively increasing percentage of houses being subjected to high internal pressures resulting from damage to the envelope is considered. Results from this study also compare favourably with levels of damage and related modes of failure for high-set houses observed in post-cyclone damage surveys.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1241-1250
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• 1996

The characteristics of fatigue cumulative damage and fatigue life of 8-harness satin woven CFRP composites with a circular hole under constant amplitude and 2-level block loading are estimated by Stochastic Makov chain model. It is found in this study that the fatigue damage accumulation behavior is very random and the fatigue damage is accumulated as two regions under constant amplitude fatigue loading. In constant amplitude fatigue loading the predicted mean number of cycles to a specified damage state by Markov chain model shows a good agreement with the test result. The predicted distribution of the fatigue cumulative damage by Markov chain model is similar to the test result. The fatigue life predictions under 2-level block loading by Markov chain model revised are good fitted to the test result more than by 2-parameter Weibull distribution function using percent failure rule.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-10
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• 2008

The seismic performance of a structure designed without consideration of seismic loading can be effectively enhanced through seismic rehabilitation. The appropriate level of rehabilitation should be determined based on the decision criteria that minimize the anticipated earthquake-related losses. To estimate the anticipated losses, seismic risk analysis should be performed considering the probabilistic characteristics of the hazard and the structural damage. This study presents the decision procedure in which the probabilistic seismic demand model is utilized for the effective estimation and minimization of the total seismic losses through seismic rehabilitation. The probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the structural damage for a specified time period are established in a closed form, and are combined with the loss functions to derive the expected seismic loss. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for making decisions on the seismic rehabilitation of structural systems.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.89-102
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• 2004

The generated blasting pressure wave initiated under decoupled-charge condition is a function of peak blasting pressure, rise time, and wave-shape function. The peak blasting pressure and the rise time are also the function of explosive and rock properties. The probabilistic distributions of explosive and rock properties are derived from the results of their property tests. Since the probabilistic distributions of explosive and rock properties displayed a normal distribution, the peak blasting pressure and the rise time can also be regarded as a normal distribution. Parameter analysis and uncertainty analysis were performed to identify the most influential parameter that affects the peak blasting pressure and the rise time. Even though the explosive properties were found to be the most influential parameters on the peak blasting pressure and the rise time from the parameter analyses, the result of uncertainty analysis showed that rock properties constituted major uncertainties in estimating the peak blasting pressure and the rise time rather than explosive properties. Damage and overbreak of the remaining rock around the excavation line induced by blasting were evaluated by dynamic numerical analysis. A user-subroutine to estimate the rock damage was coded based on the continuum damage mechanics. This subroutine was linked to a commercial program called 'ABAQUS/Explicit'. The results of dynamic numerical analysis showed that the rock damages generated by the initiation of stopping hole were larger than those from the initiation of contour hole. Several methods to minimize those damages were proposed such as relocation of stopping hole, detailed subdivision of rock classification, and so on. It was found that fracture probability criteria and fractured zones could be distinctively identified by applying fuzzy-random probability.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.13-17
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• 2018

According to the recent blackouts, large blackouts can be described by cascading outages. Cascading outage is defined by sequential outages from an initial disturbance. Sequential and probabilistic approach are necessary to minimize the blackout damage caused by cascading outages. In addition, conventional cascading outage analysis models are computationally complex and have time constraints, it is necessary to develop the new analytical techniques. In this paper, we propose the advance visualization model for probabilistic analysis of cascading failure risks. We introduce the visualization model for identifying size of cascading and potential outages and estimate the propagation rate of sequential outage simulation. The proposed model is applied to Korean power systems.