• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.55-64
• /
• 2019

The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.37 no.2
• /
• pp.119-131
• /
• 2024

Pulse-like ground motion can cause greater damage to structures than nonpulse-like ground motion. Currently, much research is being conducted to determine the presence or absence of velocity pulses and to quantify them from seismic-acceleration records. Existing ground motion is divided into far-field (FF) and near-fault ground motion, based on the distance of the measurement point from the fault. Near-fault ground motion is further classified into near-fault pulse-like (NFP) and near-fault nonpulse-like (NFNP) ground motion by quantifying the presence or absence of velocity pulses. For each ground motion group, 40 FF, 40 NFP, and 40 NFNP ground motions are selected; thus, 120 ground motions are used in the seismic analysis to assess the seismic fragility of sample bridges. Probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs) are created by evaluating the seismic responses of two types of sample bridges with lead-rubber and elastomeric rubber bearings using three groups of ground motions. Seismic fragility analysis is performed using the PSDM, and from these results, the effect of the presence or absence of seismic velocity pulses on the seismic fragility is evaluated. From the comparison results of the seismic fragility curve, the seismic fragility of NFP ground motion appears to be approximately three to five times greater than that of NFNP ground motion, according to the presence or absence of a velocity pulse of seismic waves. This means that the damage to the bridge is greater in the case of NFP ground motion than that in the case of NFNP ground motion.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.35 no.2
• /
• pp.23-32
• /
• 2023

Probabilistic and deterministic analyses are implemented for the armor units of rubble foundation mound of composite breakwaters which is needed to protect the upright section against the scour of foundation mounds. By a little modification and incorporation of the previous empirical formulas that has commonly been applied to design the armor units of foundation mound, a new type formula of stability number has been suggested which is capable of taking into account slopes of foundation mounds, damage ratios of armor units, and incident wave numbers. The new proposed formula becomes mathematically identical with the previous empirical formula under the same conditions used in the developing process. Deterministic design have first been carried out to evaluate the minimum weights of armor units for several conditions associated with a typical section of composite breakwater. When the slopes of foundation mound become steepening and the incident wave numbers are increasing, the bigger armor units more than those from the previous empirical formula should be required. The opposite trends however are shown if the damage ratios is much more allowed. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis, which is one of probabilistic models, has been performed in order to quantitatively verify how the armor unit resulted from the deterministic design is stable. It has been confirmed that 1.2% of annual encounter probability of failure has been evaluated under the condition of 1% damage ratio of armor units for the design wave of 50 years return period. By additionally calculating the influence factors of the related random variables on the failure probability due to those uncertainties, it has been found that Hudson's stability coefficient, significant wave height, and water depth above foundation mound have sequentially been given the impacts on failure regardless of the incident wave angles. Finally, sensitivity analysis has been interpreted with respect to the variations of random variables which are implicitly involved in the formula of stability number for armor units of foundation mound. Then, the probability of failure have been rapidly decreased as the water depth above foundation mound are deepening. However, it has been shown that the probability of failure have been increased according as the berm width of foundation mound are widening and wave periods become shortening.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.13-22
• /
• 2008

The initiation and growth processes of cyclic ice body in porous systems are affected by the thermo-physical and mass transport properties, as well as gradients of temperature and chemical potentials. Furthermore, the diffusivity of deicing chemicals shows significantly higher value under cyclic freeze-thaw conditions. Consequently, the disintegration of concrete structures is aggravated at marine environments, higher altitudes, and northern areas. However, the properties of cyclic freeze-thaw with crack growth and the deterioration by the accumulated damages are hard to identify in tests. In order to predict the accumulated damages by cyclic freeze-thaw, a regression analysis by the response surface method (RSM) is used. The important parameters for cyclic freeze-thawdeterioration of concrete structures, such as water to cement ratio, entrained air pores, and the number of cycles of freezing and thawing, are used to compose the limit state function. The regression equation fitted to the important deterioration criteria, such as accumulated plastic deformation, relative dynamic modulus, or equivalent plastic deformations, were used as the probabilistic evaluations of performance for the degraded structural resistance. The predicted results of relative dynamic modulus and residual strains after 300 cycles of freeze-thaw show very good agreements with the experimental results. The RSM result can be used to predict the probability of occurrence for designer specified critical values. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the life cycle management of concrete structures considering the accumulated damages due to the cyclic freeze-thaw using the proposed prediction method.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.535-546
• /
• 2010

Recently, the probability of collision accident between vehicles or vessels and infrastructures are increasing at alarming rate. Particularly, collision impact load can be detrimental to sub-structures such as piers and columns. The damaged pier from an impact load of a vehicle or a vessel can lead to member damages, which make the member more vulnerable to impact load due to other accidents which. In extreme case, may cause structural collapse. Therefore, in this study, the vehicle impact load on concrete compression member was considered to assess the quantitative design resistance capacity to improve, the existing design method and to setup the new damage assessment method. The case study was carried out using the LS-DYNA, an explicit finite element analysis program. The parameters for the case study were cross-section variation of pier, impact load angle, permanent axial load and axial load ratio, concrete strength, longitudinal and lateral rebar ratios, and slenderness ratio. Using the analysis results, the performance based resistance capacity evaluation method for impact load using satisfaction curve was developed using Bayesian probabilistic method, which can be applied to reinforced concrete column design for impact loads.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
• /
• v.15 no.11
• /
• pp.67-75
• /
• 2014

In this study, the staged seismic performance evaluations were conducted to the 91 high speed railway tunnels in use for checking whether to comply with the recent design criteria or not. In addition, the seismic fragility functions of the tunnels were developed to allow the probabilistic risk assessment. The results of the staged seismic performance evaluations which consist of a preliminary assessment and a detailed assessment, show that the tunnels comply with the recent design criteria. With reference to the results of previous studies, a form of the proposed seismic fragility functions was set as a log-normal distribution by PGA, and the parameters of the functions were determined by using the probability of damage for the design PGA level. The seismic fragility functions were developed for each types (Cut & Cover, NATM) of tunnels. The seismic fragility functions from this study and the existing research results (FEMA, 2004) were compared to evaluate the seismic performance level of the tunnels, as a result the tunnels of this study were relatively superior to the ASSM tunnels on the seismic performance.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.271-280
• /
• 2014

Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and fatal viral livestock disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals domestic and wild and the FMD outbreak in Korea in 2010/2011 was a disastrous incident for the country and the economy. Thus, efforts at the national level are put to prevent foot-and-mouth disease and to reduce the damage in the case of outbreak. As one of these efforts, it is useful to study the spread of the disease by using probabilistic model. In fact, after the FMD epidemic in the UK occurred in 2001, many studies have been carried on the spread of the disease using a variety of stochastic models as an effort to prepare future outbreak of FMD. However, for the FMD outbreak in Korea occurred in 2010/2011, there are few study by utilizing probabilistic model. This paper assumes a stochastic spatial-temporal susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model for the 2010/2011 FMD outbreak to understand spread of the disease. Since data on infections of FMD disease during 2010/2011 outbreak of Aniaml and Plant Quarantine Agency and on the livestock farms from the nationwide census in 2011 of Statistics Korea do not have detail informations on address or missing values, we generate detail information on address by randomly allocating farms within corresponding Si/Gun area. The kernel function is estimated using the infection data and by using simulations, the susceptibility and transmission of the spatial-temporal stochastic SIR models are determined.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.103-110
• /
• 2016

Recently, structural health monitoring system(SHMS) has been appled cable bridges as the effective maintenance tool and the management threshold is considered to assess the status of the bridge in SHMS. The threshold is generally determined by the allowable limit based on design specification because there is no method and standard for threshold calculation. In case of the conventional thresholds, it is difficult to recognize the event, abnormal behavior and gradual damage within the threshold. Therefore, this study reviewed the problem of previous methods and proposed the advanced methodologies based on probabilistic approach for threshold calculation which can be applied to practice work. Gumbel distribution is adopted in order to calculate the threshold for caution and warning states considering the expectations for return periods of 50 and 100 years. The thresholds were individually determined for measurement data and data variation to detect the various abnormal behaviors within allowable range. Finally, it has confirmed that the thresholds by the proposed method is detectable the abnormal behavior of real-time measuring data from SHMS.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.359-398
• /
• 2017

Uncertainty is central to energy and climate policy. A growing number of literature show that almost all components of energy and climate models are, to some extent, uncertain and that the effect of uncertainty on the model outputs, in turn policy recommendations, is significantly large. Most existing energy and climate-economy models developed and used in Korea, however, do not take uncertainty into account explicitly. Rather, many models conduct a deterministic analysis or do a simple (limited) sensitivity analysis. In order to help social planners to make more robust decisions (across various plausible situations) on energy and climate change issues, an uncertainty analysis should be conducted. As a first step, this paper reviews the theory of decision making under uncertainty and the method for addressing uncertainty of existing probabilistic energy and climate-economy models. In addition, the paper proposes a strategy to apply an uncertainty analysis to energy and climate-economy models used in Korea. Applying the uncertainty analysis techniques, this paper revises the FUND model and investigates the impacts of climate change in Korea.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.26 no.6
• /
• pp.751-759
• /
• 2014

Currently, due to global warming, occurrences of extreme climate phenomena such as heat wave, heavy snow, heavy rain, super typhoon are continuously increasing all over the world. Due to these extreme climate phenomena, concrete structures and infrastructures are exposed to serious deterioration and damage. However, researches on construction technologies and standards to confront the climate change generated problems are needed presently. In order to better handle these problems, the validity of the present concrete mixture proportions are evaluated considering wind speed and sunlight exposure time based on climate change record in Seoul, Korea. The specimens cured at various wind speed and sunlight exposure time conditions were tested to obtain their compressive and split tensile strengths at various curing ages. Moreover, performance based evaluation (PBE) method was used to analyze the target strength satisfaction percentage of the concrete cured for the curing conditions. From the probabilistic method of performance evaluation of concrete performance, feasibility and usability of current concrete mix design practice for climate change conditions can be evaluated.