• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.58 no.3
• /
• pp.444-449
• /
• 2009

This paper introduces a method to establish performance criteria of the in-house power supply system in nuclear power plants. The performance criteria of the system is presented in terms of the number of function failures and amount of the out-of-service time that can be allowed commensurate with the probabilistic safety assessment results of the nuclear power plants. To obtain the performance criteria such as reliability and availability, the functions of the system were analyzed and probabilistic assessment results were utilized. This method provides quantitative guidelines in selecting and monitoring system functions to determine an adequate level of maintenance quality in order to ensure the probabilistic goals for the safety of the nuclear power plants.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 1989.10a
• /
• pp.40-45
• /
• 1989

In order to take account of the statistical properties of random variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach usually adopts the safety factor based on past experiences for the qualitative assessment of structural safety problem. Recently, new approach based on the probabilistic concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety in order to circumvent the difficulties of the conventional approach in choosing the appropriate safety factor. Thus, computer program called "Probabilistic finite element method" is developed by incorporation the probabilistic concept into the conventional matrix method in order to investigate the effects of the random variables on the final output of the structural analysis. From the comparison of some examples, it can be concluded that the PFEM developed in this study deals with consistently with the uncertainty of random variables and provides the rational tool for the assessment of structural safety of plane frame.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.91-99
• /
• 2019

Fragility analysis is an effective tool that is frequently used for seismic risk assessment of bridges. There are three different approaches to derive a fragility curve: experimental, empirical and analytical. Both experimental and empirical methods to derive fragility curve are based on past earthquake reports and expert opinions which are not suitable for all bridges. Therefore, analytical fragility analysis becomes important. Nonlinear time history analysis is commonly used which is the most reliable method for determining probabilistic demand models. In this study, to determine the probabilistic demand models of bridges, time history analyses were performed considering both material and geometrical nonlinearities. Serviceability limit states for three different service velocities were considered as a performance goal. Also, support displacements, component yielding and collapse limits were taken into account. Both serviceability and component fragility were derived by using maximum likely hood methods. Finally, the seismic performance and critical members of the bridge were probabilistically determined and clearly presented.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
• /
• v.18 no.spc
• /
• pp.63-74
• /
• 2020

The operational safety assessment is an important part of a safety case for the deep geological repository of spent fuels. It consists of different stages such as the identification of initiating events, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, and evaluation of exposure doses to the public and radiation workers. This study develops a probabilistic safety assessment method for the operational safety assessment and establishes an assessment framework. For the event and fault tree analyses, we propose the advanced information management system for probabilistic safety assessment (AIMS-PSA Manager). In addition, we propose the Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) program to evaluate exposure doses to the public and radiation workers. Furthermore, we check the applicability of the assessment framework with respect to drop accidents of a spent fuel assembly arising out of crane failure, at the surface facility of the KRS⁺ (KAERI Reference disposal System for SNFs). The methods and tools established through this study can be used for the development of a safety case for the KRS⁺ system as well as for the design modification and the operational safety assessment of the KRS⁺ system.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.10 s.175
• /
• pp.158-166
• /
• 2005

Pressurized gas pipeline is subject to harmful effects both of the surrounding environment and of the materials transmitted in them. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including tincture mechanics analysis etc are required. Up to now, the integrity assessment has been performed using conventional deterministic approaches even though there are many uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approach is considered as an appropriate method for gas pipeline evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to estimate the failure probability of corroded pipeline in gas and oil plants and to propose limited operating conditions under different types of leadings. To do this, a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation techniques was developed and applied to evaluate failure probabilities of corroded API-5L-X52/X60 gas pipelines subjected to internal pressure, bending moment and combined loading. The evaluation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• v.20 no.6
• /
• pp.1345-1368
• /
• 2016

This paper presents the probabilistic-based assessment of composite steel-concrete structures through an innovative framework. This framework combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures. The paper starts by describing current structural assessment algorithms and the most relevant uncertainty sources. The developed model identification algorithm is then presented. During this procedure, the model parameters are automatically adjusted, so that the numerical results best fit the experimental data. Modelling and measurement errors are respectively incorporated in this algorithm. The reliability assessment procedure aims to assess the structure performance, considering randomness in model parameters. Since monitoring and characterization tests are common measures to control and acquire information about those parameters, a Bayesian inference procedure is incorporated to update the reliability assessment. The framework is then tested with a set of composite steel-concrete beams, which behavior is complex. The experimental tests, as well as the developed numerical model and the obtained results from the proposed framework, are respectively present.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.44-48
• /
• 2012

The seismic safety of long-period cable-stayed bridges is assessed by probabilistic finite element analysis and reliability analysis under NFE. The structural response of critical members of cable-stayed bridges is evaluated using the developed probabilistic analysis algorithm. In this study, the real earthquake recording(Chi-Chi Earthquake; 1997) was selected as the input NFE earthquake for investigating response characteristics. The probabilistic response and reliability index shows the different aspect comparing the result from FFE earthquake. Therefore, the probabilistic seismic safety assessment on NFE earthquakes should be performed for the exact evaluation of long-period cable-stayed bridges and the earthquake resistant design criteria should be complemented.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2003.11a
• /
• pp.28-30
• /
• 2003

Probabilistic Load Flow(PLF) solution based on the method of moments is used for security assessment of bus voltages in power systems. Bus voltages, line currents, line admittances, generated real and reactive power, and bus loads are treated as complex random variables. These complex random variables are known in terms of probability density functions(PDF). Also, expressions for the convolutions of complex random variables in terms of moments and cumulants have been derived. Proposed PLF solution using the method of moments is fast, because the process of convolution of various complex random variables is performed in moment and cumulant domain. Therefore, the method is applied to security assessment of power systems in this paper. Finally, system operator also can be used information of security assessment to improve reliability of power systems.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2006.11a
• /
• pp.275-278
• /
• 2006

This paper describes a probabilistic annual congestion cost assessment of a grid at a composite power system derived from a model. This probabilistic congestion cost assessment simulation model includes capacity limitation and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. In this paper, the proposed probabilistic congestion cost assessment model is focused on an annualized simulation methodology for solving long-term grid expansion planning issues. It emphasizes the questions of "how should the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines and transformers, etc.) be considered for annual congestion cost assessment from the macro economic view point"? This simulation methodology comes essentially from a probabilistic production cost simulation model of composite power systems. This type of model comes from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on a new effective load model at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new simulation model are illustrated by several case studies of a test system.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.24-29
• /
• 2006

Pressurized gas pipelines are subject to harmful effects from both the surrounding environment and the materials passing through them. Reliable assessment procedures, including fracture mechanics analyses, are required to maintain their integrity. Currently, integrity assessments are performed using conventional deterministic approaches, even though there are many uncertainties to hinder rational evaluations. Therefore, in this study, a probabilistic approach was considered for gas pipeline evaluations. The objectives were to estimate the failure probability of a corroded pipeline in the gas and oil industries and to propose limited operating conditions for different types of loadings. To achieve these objectives, a probabilistic assessment program was developed using a reliability index and simulation techniques, and applied to evaluate the failure probabilities of a corroded API-5L-X52 gas pipeline subjected to internal pressures, bending moments, and combined loadings. The results demonstrated the potential of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.