• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Method.

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Reliability Based Topology Optimization of Compliant Mechanisms (컴플라이언트 메커니즘의 신뢰성 기반 위상최적설계)

  • Im, Min-Gyu;Park, Jae-Yong;Han, Seog-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.826-833
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    • 2010
  • Electric-thermal-structural actuated compliant mechanisms are mechanisms onto which electric voltage drop is applied as input instead of force. This mechanism is based on thermal expansion of material while being heated. Compliant mechanisms are designed subjected to electric charge input using BESO(bi-directional evolutionary structural optimization) method. Reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) is applied to the topology design of actuators. performance measure approach (PMA), which has probabilistic constraints that are formulated in terms of the reliability index, is adopted to evaluate the probabilistic constraints. In this study, BESO method is used to obtain optimal topology of compliant mechanisms from initial design domain. PMA approach is used to evaluate reliability index. The procedure has been tested in numerical applications and compared with the results obtained by other methods to validate these approaches.

Wear Debris Analysis using the Color Pattern Recognition

  • Chang, Rae-Hyuk;Grigoriev, A.Y.;Yoon, Eui-Sung;Kong, Hosung;Kang, Ki-Hong
    • KSTLE International Journal
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.34-42
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    • 2000
  • A method and results of classification of four different metallic wear debris were presented by using their color features. The color image of wear debris was used far the initial data, and the color properties of the debris were specified by HSI color model. Particles were characterized by a set of statistical features derived from the distribution of HSI color model components. The initial feature set was optimized by a principal component analysis, and multidimensional scaling procedure was used fer the definition of a classification plane. It was found that five features, which include mean values of H and S, median S, skewness of distribution of S and I, allow to distinguish copper based alloys, red and dark iron oxides and steel particles. In this work, a method of probabilistic decision-making of class label assignment was proposed, which was based on the analysis of debris-coordinates distribution in the classification plane. The obtained results demonstrated a good availability for the automated wear particle analysis.

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DEVELOPMENT OF THE HANSEL-SPITTEL CONSTITUTIVE MODEL GAZED FROM A PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE

  • LEE, KYUNGHOON;KIM, JI HOON;KANG, BEOM-SOO
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2017
  • The Hansel-Spittel constitutive model requires a total of nine parameters for flow stress prediction. Typically, the parameters are estimated by least squares methods for given tensile test measurements from a deterministic perspective. In this research we took a different approach, a probabilistic viewpoint, to see through the development of the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model. This perspective change showed that deterministic least squares methods are closely related to statistical maximum likelihood methods via Gaussian noise assumption. More intriguingly, this perspective shift revealed that the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model may leave out deterministic trends in residuals despite nearly perfect agreement with measurements. With tensile test measurements of AA1070 aluminum alloy, we demonstrated this deficiency of the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model, suggesting room for improvement.

A Nodal Probabilistic Production Cost Evaluation at each Load Point using Monte Carlo Simulation Methods (Monte Carlo Simulation을 이용한 각 부하지점별 확률론적 발전비산정)

  • Moon, Seung-Pil;Kim, Hong-Sik;Choi, Hyong-Lim;Choi, Jae-Seok;Rho, Dae-Seok
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.07a
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    • pp.530-532
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    • 2001
  • This paper illustrates a method for evaluating nodal probabilistic production cost using the CMELDC. A new method for constructing CMELDC(the equivalent load duration curves of composite power system) was developed by authors. The CMELDC can be obtained by convolution integral processing between the probability distribution functions of the fictitious generators outage capacity and the load duration curves at each load point. Monte Carlo Methods are applied for the construction of CMELDC on this study. And IEEE-RTS 24 buses model is used as our case study with satisfactory results.

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Sensitivity analysis of probabilistic seismic behaviour of wood frame buildings

  • Gu, Jianzhong
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.109-127
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    • 2016
  • This paper examines the contribution of three sources of uncertainties to probabilistic seismic behaviour of wood frame buildings, including ground motions, intensity and seismic mass. This sensitivity analysis is performed using three methods, including the traditional method based on the conditional distributions of ground motions at given intensity measures, a method using the summation of conditional distributions at given ground motion records, and the Monte Carlo simulation. FEMA P-695 ground motions and its scaling methods are used in the analysis. Two archetype buildings are used in the sensitivity analysis, including a two-storey building and a four-storey building. The results of these analyses indicate that using data-fitting techniques to obtain probability distributions may cause some errors. Linear interpolation combined with data-fitting technique may be employed to improve the accuracy of the calculated exceeding probability. The procedures can be used to quantify the risk of wood frame buildings in seismic events and to calibrate seismic design provisions towards design code improvement.

Economic Evaluation of Power Grid Interconnection between Offshore Wind Power Plants (해상풍력발전단지 간의 전력계통 연계에 관한 경제성 분석 연구)

  • Moon, Won-Sik;Jo, Ara;Kim, Jae-Chul
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.63 no.4
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    • pp.339-344
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    • 2014
  • An offshore wind power plant (WPP) is very expensive and different from an onshore wind power system in many ways. There has been a continuous increase in the capacity of the offshore WPPs. Therefore it is essential to analyze the feasibility and reliability of the offshore wind power to optimize their redundancy. Besides, it is very important to study a planning for grid interconnection of adjacent offshore WPPs. This paper proposes a economic evaluation method to interconnect with adjacent offshore substations in offshore wind power grid. Also, we suggest the probabilistic reliability method to calculate a probabilistic power output of the wind turbine and a cost of the expected energy not supplied that is used as the reliability index of the power system.

A Comparative Study on Optimal Generation Maintenance Scheduling with Marginal Maintenance Cost and Levelized Risk Methods (한계보수비용법 및 위험지수 평준화법에 의한 최적전원보수계획의 비교)

  • 이봉용;심건보
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 1992
  • Proper resource allocation is also a very important topic in power system problems, especially in operation and planning. One such is optimal maintenance problem in operation and planning. Least cost and highest reliability should be the subjects to be pursued. A probabilistic operation simulation model developed recently by authors is applied to the proboem of optimal maintenance scheduling. Three different methods are compared, marginal maintenance cost, levelized risk and maintenance space. The method by the marginal maintenance costs shows the least cost, the highest reliability and the highest maintenance outage rates. This latter characteristics may considerably influence the results of genetation planning, because the usual maintenance outages obtained from the other methods have shown to be lower.

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Topology Optimization Considering Reliability (신뢰성을 고려한 위상최적설계)

  • Min, Seung-Jae;Bang, Seung-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.468-473
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    • 2004
  • New reliability-based topology optimization method is proposed by utilizing single-loop single vector approach, which approximate searching the most probable point in the probabilistic design domain analytically, to reduce the time cost and dealing with several constraints to handle practical design requirements. To examine uncertainties in the topology design of a structure, the modulus of elasticity of the material and applied loadings are considered as probabilistic design variables. The results of design examples show that the proposed method provides efficiency curtailing the time for the optimization process and accuracy satisfying the specified reliability.

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Probabilistic Prediction Model for the Cyclic Freeze-Thaw Deteriorations in Concrete Structures (콘크리트 구조물의 반복적 동결융해에 의한 확률론적 열화예측모델)

  • Cho, Tae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.957-960
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    • 2006
  • In order to predict the accumulated damages by cyclic freeze-thaw, a regression analysis by the Response Surface Method (RSM) is used. RSM has merits when the other probabilistic simulation techniques can not guarantee the convergence of probability of occurrence or when the others can not differentiate the derivative terms of limit state functions, which are composed of random design variables in the model of complex system or the system having higher reliability. For composing limit state function, the important parameters for cyclic freeze-thaw-deterioration of concrete structures, such as water to cement ratio, entrained air pores, and the number of cycles of freezing and thawing, are used as input parameters of RSM. The predicted results of relative dynamic modulus and residual strains after 300 cycles of freeze-thaw for specimens show very good agreements with the experimental results. The RSM result can be used to predict the probability of occurrence for designer specified critical values. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the life cycle management of concrete structures considering the accumulated damages by the cyclic freeze-thaw by the use of proposed prediction method.

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AGAPE-ET: A Predictive Human Error Analysis Methodology for Emergency Tasks in Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소 비상운전 직무의 인간오류분석 및 평가 방법 AGAPE-ET의 개발)

  • 김재환;정원대
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.104-118
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    • 2003
  • It has been criticized that conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) have been focused on the quantification of human error probability (HEP) without detailed analysis of human cognitive processes such as situation assessment or decision-making which are crticial to successful response to emergency situations. This paper introduces a new human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology, AGAPE-ET (A guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), focused on the qualitative error analysis of emergency tasks from the viewpoint of the performance of human cognitive function. The AGAPE-ET method is based on the simplified cognitive model and a taxonomy of influencing factors. By each cognitive function, error causes or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and influencing mechanism of PIFs on the cognitive function. Then, overall human error analysis process is designed considering the cognitive demand of the required task. The application to an emergency task shows that the proposed method is useful to identify task vulnerabilities associated with the performance of emergency tasks.