• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권1호
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• pp.110-116
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• 2022

Human failure event (HFE) dependency analysis is a part of human reliability analysis (HRA). For efficient HFE dependency analysis, a maximum number of minimal cut sets (MCSs) that have HFE combinations are generated from the fault trees for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). After collecting potential HFE combinations, dependency levels of subsequent HFEs on the preceding HFEs in each MCS are analyzed and assigned as conditional probabilities. Then, HFE recovery is performed to reflect these conditional probabilities in MCSs by modifying MCSs. Inappropriate HFE dependency analysis and HFE recovery might lead to an inaccurate core damage frequency (CDF). Using the above process, HFE recovery is performed on MCSs that are generated with a non-zero truncation limit, where many MCSs that have HFE combinations are truncated. As a result, the resultant CDF might be underestimated. In this paper, a new method is suggested to incorporate HFE recovery into the MCS generation stage. Compared to the current approach with a separate HFE recovery after MCS generation, this new method can (1) reduce the total time and burden for MCS generation and HFE recovery, (2) prevent the truncation of MCSs that have dependent HFEs, and (3) avoid CDF underestimation. This new method is a simple but very effective means of performing MCS generation and HFE recovery simultaneously and improving CDF accuracy. The effectiveness and strength of the new method are clearly demonstrated and discussed with fault trees and HFE combinations that have joint probabilities.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제23권8호
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• pp.117-127
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• 2007

사면안정해석은 지반물성의 불확실성을 포함한 많은 불확실한 요인을 내포하는 지반공학적 문제이다. 본 연구에서는 상업용 유한차분해석 프로그램을 이용하여 확률론적 사면안정해석을 수행할 수 있는 절차를 제시하였다. 이 경우 한계상태함수가 명시적인 형태로 표현되지 않기 때문에 한계상태함수를 근사화하기 위하여 인공신경망기법을 활용한 응답면기법을 이용하였으며 파괴확률을 구하기 위해 일차 및 이차신뢰도법과 Monte Carlo simulation을 이용하였다. 제안된 절차의 적용성을 검토하기 위하여 2층 지반의 사면과 Sugar Creek제방사면에 대한 확률론적 사면안정해석을 수행하였다. 해석결과는 제안된 절차의 적정성과 다른 다양한 지반공학 문제로의 확장 적용의 가능성을 보여준다.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.141-152
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• 2007

극한하중을 견딜 수 있도록 설계된 구조물이라도 내재된 확률변수의 불확실성 때문에 구조물의 응답특성을 평가하는데 있어서 기존의 결정론적 방법에 비해 확률유한요소법을 이용하는 것이 보다 합리적일 것이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 실제 시공된 사장교를 대상으로 확률변수가 교량의 안전성에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하기 위해 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 초기형상해석을 수행한 후, 확률유한요소해석 및 민감도 분석과정의 효율성을 위해 섭동법을 이용하여 해석프로그램을 개발하였다. 개발된 해석프로그램의 정확성은 몬테카르로 시뮬레이션 방법에 의한 해석프로그램을 개발하여 검증하였다. 각각의 확률변수의 변동계수에 따른 대상 사장교의 응답에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행한 결과, 외부하중에 의한 영향이 지배적인 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 부재강성 및 케이블의 긴장력 등도 부재에 따라 큰 영향을 나타내므로, 구조물 설계 시 개발된 프로그램이 안전성 확보에 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.111-117
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• 1991

구조 공학에서의 고유치 문제는 좌굴해석, 진동해석 등 여러분야에 응용되고 있다. 일반적으로 구조물의 좌굴강도 해석에 사용되는 대부분의 변수들은 불확실성을 내포하고 있으므로 확률론적 해석을 수행해야 하지만, 구조물의 좌굴 신뢰성 해석을 위한 극한상태 방정식은 확률변수의 함수로 명확히 표현되지 않으므로 확률 유한 요소법의 사용이 필요하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 직접미분법에 의해 정식화된 확률 유한요소법을 사용하여 고유치 문제의 신뢰성 해석방법을 정식화 하고, 이를 바탕으로 좌굴 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였으며, 결과의 타당성을 검증하기 위하여 Crude Monte Carlo Method 및 이 방법의 단점을 대폭 보완한 Importance Sampling Method를 사용하였다. 본 논문에 의해 좌굴 신뢰성 해석 방법이 정립됨으로서 신뢰성에 기초한 최적 설계를 수행하는 경우, 시스템 파괴확률로서 소성 파괴확률과 더불어 좌굴 파괴확률의 고려가 가능해졌다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.1529-1539
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• 2000

A newly developed optimization method which uses the genetic algorithm combined with the sensitivity analysis is presented in this paper. The genetic algorithm is a probabilistic method, searching the optimum at several points simultaneously, requiring only the values of the object and constraint functions. It has therefore more chances to find global solution and can be applied various problems. Nevertheless, it has such shortcomings that even it approaches the optimum rapidly in the early stage, it slows down afterward and it can't consider the constraints explicitly. It is only because it can't search the local area near the current points. The traditional method, on the other hand, using sensitivity analysis is of great advantage in searching the near optimum. Thus the combination of the two techniques makes use of the individual advantages, that is, the superiority both in global searching by the genetic algorithm and in local searching by the sensitivity analysis. Application of the method to the several test functions verifies that the method suggested is very efficient and powerful to find the global solutions, and that the constraints can be considered properly.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.140-147
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• 1998

Since a structure carries out its given functions and purposes while it is always resisting against the external load, the capacity of the resistance in the structure within the range that will not collapse the structure itself becomes the important factor in the design of the structures. Therefore, many suggestions were proposed and noted for determining method of the collapse load. Some of the methods from the suggestions have been commonly used due to the considerations on their distinctive advantages such as the compactness of the conceptions and the convenience in the computation. However, in case when the variation becomes huge in the materials and load, the results would carry(have or contain) many uncertain elements. On the other hand, load incremental method which regards the characteristics of the probability must be more attainable method even though it might complicate the calculation. This study intends to develop a finite element model that uses the probabilistic load incremental method to estimate the collapse load, and also to compare the result of the analysis with the linear load incremental method and Turkstra's Rule.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.175-186
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• 2018

With the continuous increase of span lengths, modern bridges are becoming much more flexible and more prone to flutter under wind excitations. A reasonable probabilistic flutter analysis of long-span bridges involving random and uncertain variables may have to be taken into consideration. This paper presents a method for estimating the reliability index and failure probability due to flutter, which considers the very important variables including the extreme wind velocity at bridge site, damping ratio, mathematical modeling, and flutter derivatives. The Aizhai Bridge in China is selected as an example to demonstrate the numerical procedure for the flutter reliability analysis. In the presented method, the joint probability density function of wind speed and wind direction at the deck level of the bridge is first established. Then, based on the fundamental theories of structural reliability, the reliability index and failure probability due to flutter of the Aizhai Bridge is investigated by applying the Monte Carlo method and the first order reliability method (FORM). The probabilistic flutter analysis can provide a guideline in the design of long-span bridges and the results show that the structural damping and flutter derivatives have significant effects on the flutter reliability, more accurate and reliable data of which is needed.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제22권8호
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• pp.633-642
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• 2016

It is important for advanced active safety systems and autonomous driving cars to get the accurate estimates of the nearby vehicles in order to increase their safety and performance. This paper proposes a sensor fusion method for radar and vision sensors to accurately estimate the state of the preceding vehicles. In particular, we performed a study on compensating for the lateral state error on automotive radar sensors by using a vision sensor. The proposed method is based on the Interactive Multiple Model(IMM) algorithm, which stochastically integrates the multiple Kalman Filters with the multiple models depending on lateral-compensation mode and radar-single sensor mode. In addition, a Probabilistic Data Association Filter(PDAF) is utilized as a data association method to improve the reliability of the estimates under a cluttered radar environment. A two-step correction method is used in the Kalman filter, which efficiently associates both the radar and vision measurements into single state estimates. Finally, the proposed method is validated through off-line simulations using measurements obtained from a field test in an actual road environment.

• 한국윤활학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국윤활학회 2000년도 제31회 춘계학술대회
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• pp.54-61
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• 2000

A method and results of classification of 4 types metallic wear debris were presented by using their color features. The color image of wear debris was used (or the initial data, and the color properties of the debris were specified by HSI color model. Particle was characterized by a set of statistical features derived from the distribution of HSI color model components. The initial feature set was optimized by a principal component analysis, and multidimensional scaling procedure was used for the definition of classification plane. It was found that five features, which include mean values of H and S, median S, skewness of distribution of S and I, allow to distinguish copper based alloys, red and dark iron oxides and steel particles. In this work, a method of probabilistic decision-making of class label assignment was proposed, which was based on the analysis of debris-coordinates distribution in the classification plane. The obtained results demonstrated a good availability for the automated wear particle analysis.

• 한국생물정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국생물정보시스템생물학회 2005년도 BIOINFO 2005
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• pp.118-123
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• 2005

With the increasing availability of mammalian genome sequences it became possible to use large scale phylogenetic analysis in order to locate potentially functional regions. In this paper we describe a new probabilistic method for the characterization of phylogenetic conservation in mammalian DNA sequences. We have used this method for the analysis of Hox gene clusters, based on the alignment of 6 species, and we constructed a map of for indicating short and long conserved fragments and their positions with respect to the known locations of Hox genes and other elements, sometimes showing surprising layouts.