• Computers and Concrete
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• v.3 no.2_3
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• pp.123-144
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• 2006

Reinforced concrete corbels are structural elements widely used in practical engineering. The complex response of these elements is described in design codes in a simplified manner. These formulations are not sufficient to show the real behavior, which, however, is an essential prerequisite for the manufacturing of numerous elements. Therefore, a deterministic and probabilistic study has been performed, which is described in this contribution. Real complex structures have been modeled by means of the finite element method supported primarily by experimental works. The main objective of this study was the detection of uncertainties effects and safety margins not captured by traditional codes. This aim could be fulfilled by statistical considerations applied to the investigated structures. The probabilistic study is based on advanced Monte Carlo simulation techniques and sophisticated nonlinear finite element formulations.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.5
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• pp.185-190
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• 2006

The security analysis relates to the ability of the electric systems to survive sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements. It is composed of both steady state and dynamic security analyses, which are not two separate issues but should be considered together. In steady state security analysis including voltage security analysis, the analysis checks that the system is operated within security limits by OPF (optimal power flow) after the transition of a new operating point. On the other hand, dynamic security analysis deals that the transition will lead to an acceptable operating condition. Transient stability, which is the ability of power systems to maintain synchronism when subjected to a large disturbance, is a principal component in dynamic security analysis. Usually any loss of synchronism will cause additional outages. They make the present steady state analysis of the post-contingency condition inadequate for unstable cases. This is the reason of the need for dynamics of systems. Probabilistic criterion can be used to recognize the probabilistic nature of system components and shows the possibility of system security. A comprehensive conceptual framework for probabilistic static and dynamic assessment is presented in this paper. The simulation results of the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) system compare an analytical method with Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS). Also, a case study of the extended IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) shows the efficiency of this approach.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.211-221
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• 2020

One fundamental element of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the initiating event (IE) analysis. Since IE frequencies can change over time, time-trend analysis is required to obtain optimized IE frequencies. Accordingly, such time-trend analyses have been employed to estimate industry-average IE frequencies for use in the PSAs of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs); existing PSAs of Korean NPPs, however, neglect such analysis in the estimation of IE frequencies. This article therefore provides the method for and results of estimating Korean industry-average IE frequencies using time-trend analysis. It also examines the effects of the IE frequencies obtained from this study on risk insights by applying them to recently updated internal events Level 1 PSA models (at-power and shutdown) for an OPR-1000 plant. As a result, at-power core damage frequency decreased while shutdown core damage frequency increased, with the related contributions from each IE category changing accordingly. These results imply that the incorporation of time-trend analysis leads to different IE frequencies and resulting risk insights. The IE frequency distributions presented in this study can be used in future PSA updates for Korean NPPs, and should be further updated themselves by adding more recent data.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.653-659
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• 2002

This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, the depth and aspect ratio of an initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value and delayed hydride cracking(DHC) velocity are assumed to be probabilistic variables. As an example, some failure probabilities of piping and CANDU pressure tube are calculated using MC method with the stratified sampling MC technique, taking analysis conditions of normal operations. In the stratified MC simulation, a sampling space of probabilistic variables is divided into a number of small cells. For the verification of analysis results, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.2 no.5
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• pp.345-366
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• 2005

This work presents an assessment of the computational performance of a vector-parallel implementation of probabilistic model for concrete cracking in 3D. This paper shows the continuing efforts towards code optimization as reported in earlier works Paz, et al. (2002a,b and 2003). The probabilistic crack approach is based on the direct Monte Carlo method. Cracking is accounted by means of 3D interface elements. This approach considers that all nonlinearities are restricted to interface elements modeling cracks. The heterogeneity governs the overall cracking behavior and related size effects on concrete fracture. Computational kernels in the implementation are the inexact Newton iterative driver to solve the non-linear problem and a preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) driver to solve linearized equations, using an element by element (EBE) strategy to compute matrix-vector products. In particular the paper analyzes code behavior using OpenMP directives in parallel vector processors (PVP), such as the CRAY SV1 and CRAY T94. The impact of the memory architecture on code performance, and also some strategies devised to circumvent this issue are addressed by numerical experiment.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.15-38
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• 2010

In order to predict the shear strengths of reinforced concrete beams, many deterministic models have been developed based on rules of mechanics and on experimental test results. While the constant and variable angle truss models are known to provide reliable bases and to give reasonable predictions for the shear strengths of members with shear reinforcement, in the case of members without shear reinforcement, even advanced models with complicated procedures may show lack of accuracy or lead to fairly different predictions from other similar models. For this reason, many research efforts have been made for more accurate predictions, which resulted in important recent publications. This paper develops probabilistic shear strength models for reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement based on deterministic shear strength models, understanding of shear transfer mechanisms and influential parameters, and experimental test results reported in the literature. Using a Bayesian parameter estimation method, the biases of base deterministic models are identified as algebraic functions of input parameters and the errors of the developed models remaining after the bias-correction are quantified in a stochastic manner. The proposed probabilistic models predict the shear strengths with improved accuracy and help incorporate the model uncertainties into vulnerability estimations and risk-quantified designs.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.71 no.2
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• pp.165-173
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• 2019

This paper investigates the probability of failure of reinforced concrete beams for limit state of collapse for flexure and shear. The influence of randomness of the variables on the failure probability is also examined. The Indian standard code for plain and reinforced concrete IS456:2000 is used for the design of beams. Probabilistic models are developed for flexure and shear according to IS456:2000. The loads considered acting on the beam are live load and dead load only. Random variables associated with the limit state equation such as grade of concrete, grade of steel, live load and dead load are identified. Probability of failure is evaluated based on the limit state equation using First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Importance of the random variables on the limit state equations are observed and the variables are accordingly reduced. The effect of the reduced parameters is checked on the probability of failure. The results show the role of each parameter on the design of beam. Thus, the Indian standard guidelines for plain and reinforced concrete IS456:2000 is investigated with the probabilistic and risk-based analysis and design for a simple beam. The results obtained are also compared with the literature and accordingly some suggestions are made.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2018

Mixed-criticality systems consist of components with different criticality. Recently, components are categorized depending on criticality by ISO 26262 standard and DO-178B standard in automotive and avionic domain. Existing mixed-criticality system research achieved efficient and safe scheduling through system-level criticality mode. The drawback of these approaches is performance degradation of low-criticality tasks on high-criticality mode. Task-level criticality mode is one method to address the problem and improve the performance of low-critical tasks. In this paper, we propose probabilistic performance metric for the approach. In simulation results with probabilistic performance metric, we showed that our approach has better performance than the existing approaches.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.511-525
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• 2021

Aluminium outfitting is widely used in offshore platforms owing to its anti-corrosion ability and its light weight. However, various standards exist (ISO, NORSOK and EN) for the design of handrails used in offshore platforms, and different suppliers have different criteria. This causes great confusion for designers. Moreover, the design load required by the standards is not clearly defined or is uncertain. Thus, many offshore projects reference previous project details or are conservatively designed without additional clarification. In this study, all of the codes and standards were reviewed and analysed through prior studies, and data on variable factors that directly and indirectly affect the handrails applied to offshore platforms were analysed. A total of 50 handrail design load scenarios were proposed through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. To verify the proposed new handrail design load selection scenario, structural analysis was performed using SACS (offshore structural analysis software). This new proposal through deterministic and probabilistic approaches is expected to improve safety by clarifying the purpose of the handrails. Furthermore, the acceptance criteria for probabilistic scenarios for handrails suggest considering the frequency of handrail use and the design life of offshore platforms to prevent excessive design. This study is expected to prevent trial and error in handrail design while maintaining overall worker safety by applying a loading scenario suitable for the project environment to enable optimal handrail design.