• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.2084-2093
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• 2022

Probabilistic safety assessment is widely used to quantify the risks of nuclear power plants and their uncertainties. When the lognormal distribution describes the uncertainties of basic events, the uncertainty of the top event in a fault tree is approximated with the sum of lognormal random variables after minimal cutsets are obtained, and rare-event approximation is applied. As handling complicated analytic expressions for the sum of lognormal random variables is challenging, several approximation methods, especially Monte Carlo simulation, are widely used in practice for uncertainty analysis. In this study, a theoretical approach for analyzing the sum of lognormal random variables using an efficient numerical integration method is proposed for uncertainty analysis in probability safety assessments. The change of variables from correlated random variables with a complicated region of integration to independent random variables with a unit hypercube region of integration is applied to obtain an efficient numerical integration. The theoretical advantages of the proposed method over other approximation methods are shown through a benchmark problem. The proposed method provides an accurate and efficient approach to calculate the uncertainty of the top event in probabilistic safety assessment when the uncertainties of basic events are described with lognormal random variables.

• Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.11-19
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• 2016

In this paper, we propose an automatic segmentation method of renal parenchyma on abdominal CT image using graph-cuts with shape constraint based on multi-probabilistic atlas. The proposed method consists of following three steps. First, to use the various shape information of renal parenchyma, multi-probabilistic atlas is generated by cortex-based similarity registration. Second, initial seeds for graph-cuts are extracted by maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation and renal parenchyma is segmented by graph-cuts with shape constraint. Third, to reduce alignment error of probabilistic atlas and increase segmentation accuracy, registration and segmentation are iteratively performed. To evaluate the performance of proposed method, qualitative and quantitative evaluation are performed. Experimental results show that the proposed method avoids a leakage into neighbor regions with similar intensity of renal parenchyma and shows improved segmentation accuracy.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.8
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• pp.619-624
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• 2013

To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.236-243
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• 2010

Power quality mitigation devices play an important role in lots of industrial segments. Although there were many devices available in the market, the selection of an appropriate device specially for voltage sags and interruptions mitigation has been a challenge in the utility and customer for several years. It usually depends on technical and economic characteristics of the device. Nevertheless, most mitigation method is selected by rule of thumb or empirical method. In this paper, the life cycle cost analysis for the probabilistic risk assesment of voltage sag mitigation method is performed using either the deterministic or probabilistic approach. The difference between a deterministic and a probabilistic cost analysis approach is illustrated with five different case studies. This paper not only provides a comparison of life cycle costing of various devices but it also indirectly shows the possible savings due to the mitigation of voltage sags in the form of a project balance chart.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.94-99
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• 1997

This paper describes a technique of probabilistic spectral subtraction which uses the knowledge of both noise and speech so as to reduce automatic speech recognition errors in noisy environments. Spectral subtraction method estimates a noise prototype in non-speech intervals and the spectrum of clean speech is obtained from the spectrum of noisy speech by subtracting this noise prototype. Thus noise can not be suppressed effectively using a single noise prototype in case the characteristics of the noise prototype are different from those of the noise contained in input noisy speech. To modify such a drawback, multiple noise prototypes are used in probabilistic subtraction method. In this paper, the probabilistic characteristics of noise and the knowledge of speech which is embedded in hidden Markov models trained in clean environments are used to suppress noise. Futhermore, dynamic feature parameters are considered as well as static feature parameters for effective noise suppression. The proposed method reduced error rates in the recognition of 50 Korean words. The recognition rate was 86.25% with the probabilistic subtraction, 72.75% without any noise suppression method and 80.25% with spectral subtraction at SNR(Signal-to-Noise Ratio) 10 dB.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.49-58
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• 2004

In this talk we proposed an asymptotic test for dimensionality in the latent variable model for probabilistic principal component analysis with missing values at random. Proposed algorithm is a sequential likelihood ratio test for an appropriate Normal latent variable model for the principal component analysis. Modified EM-algorithm is used to find MLE for the model parameters. Results from simulations and real data sets give us promising evidences that the proposed method is useful in finding necessary number of components in the principal component analysis with missing values at random.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• summer
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• pp.645-647
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• 2004

According to NERC definition, Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is a measure of the transfer capability remaining in the physical transmission network for the future commercial activity To calculate ATC, accurate and defensible TTC, CBM and TRM should be calculated in advance. This paper proposes a method to quantify time varying ATC based on probabilistic approach. The uncertainties of power system and market are considered as complex random variables. TRM with the desired probabilistic margin is calculated based on PLF analysis, and CBM is evaluated using LOLE of the system. Suggested ATC quantification method is verified using IEEE RTS with 72 bus. The proposed method shows efficiency and flexibility for the quantification of ATC.

• The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.262-269
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• 2010

This paper presents a probabilistic head tracking method, mainly applicable to face recognition and human robot interaction, which can robustly track human head against various variations such as pose/scale change, illumination change, and background clutters. Compared to conventional particle filter based approaches, the proposed method can effectively track a human head by regularizing the sample space and sequentially weighting multiple visual cues, in the prediction and observation stages, respectively. Experimental results show the robustness of the proposed method, and it is worthy to be mentioned that some proposed probabilistic framework could be easily applied to other object tracking problems.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.1173-1182
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• 2016

The objective of this work was to evaluate the ductile cracked structures with bonded composite patch used in probabilistic elastic plastic fracture mechanics subjected to tensile load. The finite element method is used to analyze the stress intensity factors for elastic case, the effect of cracks and the thickness of the patch ($e_r$) are presented for calculating the stress intensity factors. For elastic-plastic the Monte Carlo method is used to predict the distribution function of the mechanical response. According to the obtained results, we note that the stress variations are important factors influencing on the distribution function of (J/Je).

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.249-255
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• 2016

Recently, transaction data is accumulated everywhere very rapidly. Association analysis methods are usually applied to analyze transaction data, but the methods have several problems. For example, these methods can only consider one-way relations among items and cannot reflect domain knowledge into analysis process. In order to overcome defect of association analysis methods, we suggest a transaction data analysis method based on probabilistic graphical model (PGM) in this study. The method we suggest has several advantages as compared with association analysis methods. For example, this method has a high flexibility, and can give a solution to various probability problems regarding the transaction data with relationships among items.