• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Concept

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A Study fo rthe determination of optimum cutangle for the heavily jointed rock slope (절리가 심하게 발달된 암반사면의 최적 절취각 고찰)

  • 홍예성;조태진;한공창
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.166-174
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    • 1996
  • Stability of rock slope is greatly affected by the geometry and strength of discontinuities developed in the rock mass. In this study an analytical method which is capable of analyzing the effect of relative orientation between the discontinuities and the slope face on the safety of slope by assessing their vector components was used to evaluate the stability and the maximum cut-angle for the proposed slope design. The results of computerized vector analysis revealed that slope area under investigation might be divided into 3 sections of different face directions. The safety factors for benches in each 3 sections were calculated using the limit-equilibrium theory. Then, by utilizing the concept of probabilistic risk analysis, the susceptibility of entire slope failure was estimated. Based on the distribution of safety factor in each bench, the maximum cut angle of each section could be selected differently ot achieve the permanent stability of the entire slope.

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Statistical Characteristics of Response Consistency Parameters in Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP에서의 응답일관성 모수의 통계적 특성과 활용 방안)

  • 고길곤;이경전
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2001
  • Using the computer simulation method, we invest19ate the probability distribution of maximum eigenvalue of pair-wise comparison matrix, which has been used as a parameter for measuring the consistency of responses in analytic hierarchy process (AHP). We show that the shape of the distribution of the maximum eigenvalue is different according to the dimension of the matrix. In addition, we cannot find any evidence that the distribution of the Consistency Index is a Normal distribution, which has been claimed in the Previous literature. Accordingly, we suggest using so called K-index calcu1ated based on the concept of cumulative distribution function lather than based on that of arithmetic mean because the probabilistic distribution cannot be assumed to be a Normal distribution. We interpret the simulation results by comparing them with the suggestion of Saaty[11]. Our results show that using Saaty's value could be too generous when the dimension of the matrix is 3 and strict over 4. Finally, we propose new criteria for measuring the response consistency in AHP.

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Elaboration of Real Options Model and the Adequacy of Volatility

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.225-244
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    • 2017
  • When evaluating the economic value of technology or business project, we need to consider the period and cost for commercialization. Since the discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialization cost, we often take it desirable to apply the concept of real options with key metrics of underlying asset value, commercialization cost, and volatility, while regarding the value of technology and investment as the opportunity value. We at this moment provide more elaborated real options model with the effective region of volatility, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM).

A Simultaneous Design of TSK - Linguistic Fuzzy Models with Uncertain Fuzzy Output

  • Kwak, Keun-Chang;Kim, Dong-Hwa
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.427-432
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    • 2005
  • This paper is concerned with a simultaneous design of TSK (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang)-linguistic fuzzy models with uncertain model output and the computationally efficient representation. For this purpose, we use the fundamental idea of linguistic models introduced by Pedrycz and develop their comprehensive design framework. The design process consists of several main phases such as (a) the automatic generation of the linguistic contexts by probabilistic distribution using CDF (conditional density function) and PDF (probability density function) (b) performing context-based fuzzy clustering preserving homogeneity based on the concept of fuzzy granulation (c) augment of bias term to compensate bias error (d) combination of TSK and linguistic context in the consequent part. Finally, we contrast the performance of the enhanced models with other fuzzy models for automobile MPG predication data and coagulant dosing process in a water purification plant.

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FUZZY NUMBER LINEAR PROGRAMMING: A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH (3)

  • maleki, H.R.;Mashinchi, M.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.15 no.1_2
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    • pp.333-341
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    • 2004
  • In the real world there are many linear programming problems where all decision parameters are fuzzy numbers. Several approaches exist which use different ranking functions for solving these problems. Unfortunately when there exist alternative optimal solutions, usually with different fuzzy value of the objective function for these solutions, these methods can not specify a clear approach for choosing a solution. In this paper we propose a method to remove the above shortcoming in solving fuzzy number linear programming problems using the concept of expectation and variance as ranking functions

Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Single-Loop Single-Vector Approach (단일루프 단일벡터 방법을 이용한 신뢰성기반 위상최적설계)

  • Bang Seung-Hyun;Min Seung-Jae
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.30 no.8 s.251
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    • pp.889-896
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    • 2006
  • The concept of reliability has been applied to the topology optimization based on a reliability index approach or a performance measure approach. Since these approaches, called double-loop single vector approach, require the nested optimization problem to obtain the most probable point in the probabilistic design domain, the time for the entire process makes the practical use infeasible. In this work, new reliability-based topology optimization method is proposed by utilizing single-loop single-vector approach, which approximates searching the most probable point analytically, to reduce the time cost. The results of design examples show that the proposed method provides efficiency curtailing the time for the optimization process and accuracy satisfying the specified reliability.

Window-Based Computer Code Package CONPAS for an Integrated Level 2 PSA

  • Ahn, Kwang-Il;Kim, See-Darl;Song, Yong-Mann;Jin, Young-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1996.05b
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    • pp.493-498
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    • 1996
  • A PC window-based computer code, CONPAS(CONtainment Performance Analysis System), has been developed to integrate the numerical, graphical and results-operation aspects of Level 2 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) for nuclear power plants automatically. As a main logic for accident progression analysis, it employs a concept of the small containment phenomenological event tree(CPET) helpful to trace out visually individual accident progressions and of the large supporting event tree(LSET) for its detailed quantification. Compared with other existing computer codes for Level 2 PSA, the CONPAS code provides several advanced features: computational aspects including systematic uncertainty analysis, importance analysis, and sensitivity analysis, reporting aspects including tabling and graphic, and user-friend interface.

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A Study on the Concept of Chaos and New Design Thinking (카오스개념과 새로운 디자인사고에 관한 고찰)

  • 김주미
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • no.6
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    • pp.28-37
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    • 1995
  • As we approach the end of the twentieth century, it seems we need a new way to express the thoughts, needs, and values that are undergoing a drastic change and a new strategy to create diverse cultural forms that would reflect and incorporate such changes. In this study, I am introducing the chaos theory as a new way of thinking that would help counterbalancing the deter-ministic world-view and forging a harmonious unity of man and his environment. As a creative principle, the theory seems to offer an unlimited number of structural possibilities for art and design. In fine, this study discuss-es the reductive nature of modernist approach and offer instead the chaos theory that is more probabilistic and capable of greater diversity.

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AN AVERAGE OF SURFACES AS FUNCTIONS IN THE TWO-PARAMETER WIENER SPACE FOR A PROBABILISTIC 3D SHAPE MODEL

  • Kim, Jeong-Gyoo
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.751-762
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    • 2020
  • We define the average of a set of continuous functions of two variables (surfaces) using the structure of the two-parameter Wiener space that constitutes a probability space. The average of a sample set in the two-parameter Wiener space is defined employing the two-parameter Wiener process, which provides the concept of distribution over the two-parameter Wiener space. The average defined in our work, called an average function, also turns out to be a continuous function which is very desirable. It is proved that the average function also lies within the range of the sample set. The average function can be applied to model 3D shapes, which are regarded as their boundaries (surfaces), and serve as the average shape of them.

Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Considering Protective System (보호시스템을 고려한 배전계통의 신뢰도 평가)

  • Kim, S.H.;Jwa, C.K.;Choi, B.Y.;Choi, S.H.;Kim, J.G.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1997.07c
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    • pp.1003-1005
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    • 1997
  • To evaluate the quality of a system or its ability to perform a required function, it is necessary to quantify the reliability of that system. The reliability techniques are based on the concept of expected failure rate and average-outage-duration method. For each load point, the expected failure rate, average outage duration and average annual outage time are evaluated. This paper deals with the reliability evaluation for distribution system including the protection relay system. In evaluating the reliability, it suggests a method for the analysis of protective system reliability, that provides a probabilistic measure of the success of the protective apparatus to perform its intended function. The analysis shows the dependency of success on the reliability of many components, and the way this reliability may be enhanced by redundancy.

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