• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.27-34
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• 2010

The PERT is one form of probabilistic network and can have many critical paths in the concept of each work has dispersed complete time. Here we propose two operators to estimate the probabilistic complete time about serial and parallel connections, and in each junction node, probability of critical path is estimated by new operator. Then we compare the estimated results with robability of critical path with deterministic CPM and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Our results show that all paths in PERT can be critical path, and proposed operators are efficient and accurate probabilistic calculators compare MCS result.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.93-102
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• 2015

This study evaluates collapse probabilities of structures which are designed according to a domestic seismic design code, KBC2009. In evaluating their collapse probabilities, to do this, probabilistic distribution models for seismic hazard and structural capacity are required. In this paper, eight major cities in Korea are selected and the demand probabilistic distribution of each city is obtained from the uniform seismic hazard. The probabilistic distribution for the structural capacity is assumed to follow a underlying design philosophy implicitly defined in ASCE 7-10. With the assumptions, the structural collapse probability in 50 years is evaluated based on the concept of a risk integral. This paper then defines an mean value of the collapse probabilities in 50 years of the selected major cities as the target risk. Risk-targeted spectral accelerations are finally suggested by modifying a current mapped spectral acceleration to meet the target risk.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.24 no.8 s.179
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• pp.2115-2122
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• 2000

The understanding of impact-induced delamination is important in safety and reliability of composite structure. In this study, a model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models, experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work factor used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior can be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. A variation of arrest toughness increases with specimen thickness.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.132-137
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• 2000

In this study, model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models. experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work fatter used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior call be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. An increasing of thickness raises a variation of arrest toughness.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.289-295
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• 2004

Pressure tubes are major component of nuclear reactor, but only selected samples are periodically examined due to numerous numbers of tubes. Current in-service inspection result show there is high probability of flaw existence at uninspected pressure tube. Probabilistic analysis is applied in this study for the integrity assessment of uninspected pressure tube. All the current integrity evaluations procedures are based on conventional deterministic approaches. So it is expected that the results obtained are too conservative to perform a rational evaluation of lifetime. More realistic failure criteria, based on FAD are also proposed for the probabilistic analysis. As a result of this study failure probabilities for various conditions are calculated, and examined application of FAD and LBB concept.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1987.11a
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• pp.101-105
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• 1987

A new probabilistic production costing simulation model has been developed based on the effective load and economic load dispatch. The best model must be able to simulate the real world exactly and the computing efficiencies are also reasonable. This proposed model is a new concept for the probabilistic production costing simulation model. This model is compared with the available existing ones through two sample systems, and the excellent results are shown.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.147-155
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• 2022

Regarding the importance of seismic pounding, the available standards and guidelines specify minimum separation distance between adjacent buildings. However, the rules in this field are generally based on some simple assumptions, and the level of confidence is uncertain. This is attributed to the fact that the relative response of adjacent structures is strongly dependent on the frequency content of the applied records and the Eigen frequencies of the adjacent structures as well. Therefore, this research aims at investigating the separation distance of the buildings through a probabilistic-based algorithm. In order to empower the algorithm, the record-to-record uncertainties, are considered by probabilistic approaches; besides, a wide extent of material nonlinear behaviors can be introduced into the structural model by the implementation of the hysteresis Bouc-Wen model. The algorithm is then simplified by the application of the linearization concept and using the response acceleration spectrum. By implementing the proposed algorithm, the separation distance in a specific probability level can be evaluated without the essential need of performing time-consuming dynamic analyses. Accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated using nonlinear dynamic analyses of adjacent structures.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.271-280
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• 2002

A probabilistic approach to identify the effects of uncertainties of soil strength parameters on searching a critical slip surface with the lowest reliability is introduced. In general construction field, it is impossible for the engineer to always gather a variety of statistical information of soil strength parameters for which lots of laboratory and in-situ soil testing are required and to use it with enough statistical knowledge. Thus, in order that the engineer may easily understand the probabilistic concept for the slope stability analysis, this study proposes a combined procedure to incorporate the engineering probabilistic tools into the existing deterministic slope stability analysis methods. Using UTEXAS 3, a slope stability analysis computer program developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (U.S. COE), this study provides the results of this probabilistic slope stability analysis in terms of probability of failure or reliability index. This probabilistic method f3r slope stability analysis appears to yield more comprehensive results of slope reliability than does existing deterministic methods with safety factors alone.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.97-108
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• 2015

This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.15-39
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• 2013

The sensitivities of a structural response due to variation of its design parameters are prerequisite in the majority of the algorithms used for fundamental problems in engineering as system uncertainties, identification and probabilistic assessments etc. The paper presents the concept of probabilistic sensitivity of suspension bridges with respect to near-fault ground motion. In near field earthquake ground motions, large amplitude spectral accelerations can occur at long periods where many suspension bridges have significant structural response modes. Two different types of suspension bridges, which are Bosporus and Humber bridges, are selected to investigate the near-fault ground motion effects on suspension bridges random response sensitivity analysis. The modulus of elasticity is selected as random design variable. Strong ground motion records of Kocaeli, Northridge and Erzincan earthquakes are selected for the analyses. The stochastic sensitivity displacements and internal forces are determined by using the stochastic sensitivity finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation method. The stochastic sensitivity displacements and responses obtained from the two different suspension bridges subjected to these near-fault strong-ground motions are compared with each other. It is seen from the results that near-fault ground motions have different impacts stochastic sensitivity responses of suspension bridges. The stochastic sensitivity information provides a deeper insight into the structural design and it can be used as a basis for decision-making.