• 유통과학연구
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.93-100
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• 2023

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to confirm whether stocks belonging to the distribution industry in Korea have reversals, following large daily stock price changes accompanied by large trading volumes. Research design, data, and methodology: We examined whether there were reversals after the event date when large-scale stock price changes appeared for the entire sample of distribution-related companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from January 2004 to July 2022. In addition, we reviewed whether the reversals differed depending on abnormal trading volume on the event date. Using multiple regression analysis, we tested whether high trading volume had a significant effect on the cumulative rate of return after the event date. Results: Reversals were confirmed after the stock price shock in the Korean distribution industry and the return after the event date varied depending on the size of the trading volume on the event day. In addition, even after considering both company-specific and event-specific factors, the trading volume on the event day was found to have significant explanatory power on the cumulative rate of return after the event date. Conclusions: Reversals identified in this paper can be used as a useful tool for establishing a trading strategy.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.101-111
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• 2023

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the VKOSPI index on short-term stock returns after a large-scale stock price shock of individual stocks of firms in the distribution industry in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology: This study investigates the effect of the change of the VKOSPI index or investor mood on abnormal returns after the event date from January 2004 to July 2022. The significance of the abnormal return, which is obtained by subtracting the rate of return estimated by the market model from the rate of actual return on each trading day after the event date, is determined based on T-test and multifactor regression analysis. Results: In Korea's distribution industry, the simultaneous occurrence of a bad investor mood and a large stock price decline, leads to stock price reversals. Conversely, the simultaneous occurrence of a good investor mood and a large-scale stock price rise leads to stock price drifts. We found that the VKOSPI index has strong explanatory power for these reversals and drifts even after considering both company-specific and event-specific factors. Conclusions: In Korea's distribution industry-related stock market, investors show an asymmetrical behavioral characteristic of overreacting to negative moods and underreacting to positive moods.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.265-279
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to compare and review behavioral economics models that explain stock price changes after large-scale price shocks in the Korean stock market and to find a suitable model. In this paper, among the theories reviewed, it was confirmed that the anchoring heuristics theory has high explanatory power for stock prices after large-scale stock price fluctuations. Design/methodology/approach - This paper conducts an event study on stock price shocks in which the individual stocks that make up the KOSPI200 index show more than 10% fluctuation on a daily basis. In order to materialize the abstract predictions of heuristics theories in a varifiable form, this paper uses the daily stock price index change as a reference point for availability heuristics, and uses the 52-week highest and lowest price as reference point for anchoring heuristics. Research implications or Originality - As a result of the empirical analysis, the stock price reversals did not consistently appear for changes in the daily index. On the other hand, the stock price drifts consistently appeared around the 52-week highest and the 52-week lowest price. And in the multiple regression analysis that controlled for company-specific and event-specific variables, the results that supported the anchoring heuristics were more evident. These results suggest that it is possible to establish an investment strategy using large-scale price change in Korean stock market.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.41-79
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• 2007

본 논문은 주가지수 선물과 옵션의 만기일이 주식시장에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가에 대한 분석을 통해 한국주식시장에서 만기일 효과가 존재하는지를 검증한다. 주가지수를 이용한 기존의 논문과는 달리 만기일에 현물 주식시장의 움직임을 개별 종목별로 분석했다는 점에서 본 논문은 차별성을 지닌다. 주가지수는 시장 움직임의 평균으로 개별 종목의 고유한 특성을 반영하지 못하기 때문에 주가지수를 이용한 분석은 만기일 효과를 해석하고 그 원인을 분석하는데 한계를 지니고 있다. 분석 결과 한국주식시장에서 선물 만기일 효과는 분명히 존재하지만, 옵션 만기일 효과는 뚜렷하지 않은 것으로 드러났다. 선물 만기일에 KOSPI 200 지수와 개별 종목은 가격상승 압력이 존재하고, 변동성과 거래량이 증가하며, 만기일 다음날 수익률은 반전하는 경향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 비교표본인 NON-KOSPI 200 지수와 개별 종목에서 만기일 효과가 존재한다고 할 만한 증거를 찾지 못했다. 만기일 효과가 시장 전체적으로 나타나는 것처럼 보이지만 KOSPI 200에 속하는 대규모 기업에 한정되며, 장 후반에 집중적으로 나타난다는 사실은 프로그램 매매와 만기일의 결제제도가 만기일 효과의 간접적 원인임을 시사한다. 또한 만기일 다음날 가격이 반전하는 현상이 KOSPI 200에 속하는 대규모 기업에 한정되어 나타나는 사실은 만기일 효과가 새로운 정보의 반영에 의한 정보 효과(information effects)가 아니라 일시적 거래불균형에 의한 유동성 효과(liquidity effects)임을 보여주는 증거가 된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권10호
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• pp.219-228
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• 2021

The study examines the behavior of stock prices after large price changes. It further examines the effect of firm size on stock returns, and the presence of the disposition effect. The study employs the event study methodology using daily price data from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for the period January 2001 to July 2012. Furthermore, to examine the factors that explain stock price behavior after large price movements, the study employs a two-way fixed-effect model that allows for the analysis of unobservable company and time fixed effects that explain market reversals or continuation. The findings suggest that winners perform better than losers after experiencing large price shocks thus showing a momentum behavior. In addition, the winners remain the winner, while the losers continue to lose more. This suggests that most of the investors in PSX behave rationally. Further, the study finds no evidence of disposition effect in PSX. The investors underreact to new information and the prices continue to move in the direction of initial change. The pooled regression estimates show that firm size is positively related to post-event abnormal returns while the fixed-effect model reveals the presence of unobservable firm-specific and time-specific effects that account for price continuation.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제21권9호
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• pp.103-114
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• 2023

Purpose: This paper aims to assess psychological heuristics' effectiveness on cumulative returns after significant stock price changes. Specifically, it compares availability and anchoring heuristics' empirical validity due to conflicting stock return predictions. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: This paper analyzes stock price changes of Korean distribution industry stocks in the KOSPI market from January 2004 to July 2022, where daily fluctuations exceed 10%. It evaluates availability heuristics using daily KOSPI index changes and tests anchoring heuristics using 52-week high and low stock prices as reference points. Results: As a result of the empirical analysis, stock price reversals did not consistently appear alongside changes in the daily KOSPI index. By contrast, stock price drifts consistently appeared around the 52-week highest stock price and 52-week lowest stock price. The result of the multiple regression analysis which controlled for both company-specific and event-specific variables supported the anchoring heuristics. Conclusions: For stocks related to the Korean distribution industry in the KOSPI market, the anchoring heuristics theory provides a consistent explanation for stock returns after large-scale stock price fluctuations that initially appear to be random movements.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.145-176
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• 2023

This paper investigates short selling behavior, particularly by foreign investors, during event days of non-normal times on an intraday basis in the Korean stock market around the global financial crisis. Although, in the several subsamples, we cannot exclude the predatory short-selling possibility, we did not find any conclusive evidence of abusive short selling behaviors in the overall intraday trading activities. While foreign investors demonstrate higher levels of participation in short-sale trading, their impact on price declines is not as pronounced compared to the effects of pure selling. Following the lift of the short-sale ban, foreign investors appear to engage in long selling trading more frequently, and their influence on price changes primarily stems from long selling rather than short selling compared to the past.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.1079-1090
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• 2021

This study examines the influence of individual investors' sentiment on Japanese IPO aftermarket performance (measured by return and trading volume on the first trading day and return on the first trading year). This study proposes that IPOs will be, on average overpriced on the listing day when individual investors' sentiment is highly optimistic. Higher initial return and trading volume are expected in IPOs with higher investors' optimism. Further, the positive initial return will occur in the short term as individual investors usually are uninformed investors who demand shares based on their personal preferences, which will last only in a short period. Following the overvaluation hypothesis, price reversals should be predicted once the effect of individual investors' optimism has disappeared, causing the IPOs to underperform in the long term. Using 520 Japanese IPOs issued from January 2010 to December 2019, this study reveals that individual investors' sentiment is positively and significantly related to returns and trading volume on the first trading day. Return reversals are found on the first trading year despite the insignificant influence of individual investors' sentiment on IPO return on the first trading year.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.151-162
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• 2010

Recent developments in financial market liberalization and information technology are accelerating the interdependence of national stock markets. This study explores the information spillover effect of the US stock market on the overnight and daytime returns of the Korean stock market. We develop a profitable intra-day trading strategy based on the information spillover effect. Our study provides several important conclusions. First, an information spillover effect still exists from the overnight US stock market to the current Korean stock market. Second, Korean investors overreact to both good and bad news overnight from the US. Therefore, there are significant price reversals in the KOSPI 200 index futures prices from market open to market close. Third, the overreaction effect is different between weekdays and weekends. Finally, the suggested intra-day trading system based on the documented overreaction hypothesis is profitable.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.147-173
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• 2011

본 논문은 효율적 시장가설의 이례현상(anomalies)의 하나인 주가의 시계열 상관성과 관련하여 과거의 주식수익률(price change)과 함께 주가수준(price level)을 이용한 투자전략들의 성과에 초점을 맞추어 어떤 투자전략이 지속적으로 유의하며 경제적 유용성을 지니고 있는가를 검증하고 정성적으로나마 그 원인이 무엇인지를 도출하고자 한 것이다. 전체 표본기간을 대상으로 한 연구에서는 수익률 이용 반대투자전략(이후 JT반대투자전략)과 연중최고가 이용 반대투자전략(이후 GH반대투자전략)은 12개월 보유기간에서 각각 월평균 0.49%와 0.28%의 통계적으로 유의적 성과를 보였으며 나머지 보유기간에서는 비유의적인 양(+)의 값을 나타내었다. 쌍대비교 검증으로 두 투자전략의 우수성을 검증한 결과는 GH승자포트폴리오에서 JT반대투자전략이 월평균 0.50%를 시현하여 모든 JT포트폴리오들에 대하여 유의적인 설명력을 갖지 못한 GH반대투자전략보다 우수한 것으로 확인되었다. 이러한 결과들만 두고 본다면 1988년부터 2000년까지를 표본으로 한 안재욱, 김영빈(2004)의 선행 연구결과와 다소 상반되는 것이다. 그러나 체계적 위험을 고려한 위험조정수익률로 성과를 산출하면 6개월 보유 JT반대투자전략과 GH반대투자전략의 성과는 0.09%와 042%로 서로 엇갈리나 통계적으로 유의성을 갖지 못하고 반대투자전략이 유의적으로 나타난 12개월 보유기간 두 반대투자전략의 성과 역시 0.22%와 -0.06%로 유의적이지 못한 결과를 실현하여 두 방식 모두 반대투자전략이 유효한 투자전략이 될 수 없다는 사실을 확인하였다. 이를 명확히 하기 위하여 베타를 통제한 후 반대투자전략을 실행하여 검증한 결과 JT반대투자전략의 성과 검증결과는 베타의 크고 작음에 상관없이 유의적인 양(+)의 성과가 확인됨으로써 사후적인 역사적 베타에 의한 위험조정수익률의 산정과 활용에는 한계점이 있음을 알 수 있다.