• 제목/요약/키워드: Price Risk

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The Implications of Simultaneous Capital Stop and Retrenchment during Financial Crises

  • Suh, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제24권7호
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    • pp.38-53
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - A financial crash triggers asset fire sales by foreign investors and, as a consequence, the price of domestic assets severely decreases. Domestic investors take advantage of these low prices by replacing foreign assets with domestic assets, which helps to alleviate the liquidity shock caused by foreigners. However, is the amount of capital retrenchment by domestic investors sufficient to protect the Korean economy from capital stop by foreign investors during financial crisis? This paper answers this question and suggests the implications of this phenomenon for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We estimate the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and various financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises using the complementary log-log model. Specifically, we use data of gross capital flows to differentiate between the role of foreign and domestic investors in financial markets. Capital stop and retrenchment designate a sharp decrease in gross capital inflows and outflows, respectively. Findings - Capital stop is significantly associated with financial crises, especially currency and debt crises. This implies that increased risk aversion during times of financial turmoil encourages foreign investors to retrench their investments, worsening liquidity shocks. Conversely, capital retrenchment is not significantly associated with such crises. The results show that, although financial crises reduce gross capital outflows, the reduction is not as large as that with capital inflows. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, this study investigates how domestic investors behave during times of financial distress by studying gross capital flows-not net capital flows. Second, we concentrate on sharp changes in capital flows during crises. Third, we examine the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and financial crises in general, not specific events.

인공지능 기반 빈집 추정 및 주요 특성 분석 (Vacant House Prediction and Important Features Exploration through Artificial Intelligence: In Case of Gunsan)

  • 임규건;노종화;이현태;안재익
    • 한국IT서비스학회지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2022
  • The extinction crisis of local cities, caused by a population density increase phenomenon in capital regions, directly causes the increase of vacant houses in local cities. According to population and housing census, Gunsan-si has continuously shown increasing trend of vacant houses during 2015 to 2019. In particular, since Gunsan-si is the city which suffers from doughnut effect and industrial decline, problems regrading to vacant house seems to exacerbate. This study aims to provide a foundation of a system which can predict and deal with the building that has high risk of becoming vacant house through implementing a data driven vacant house prediction machine learning model. Methodologically, this study analyzes three types of machine learning model by differing the data components. First model is trained based on building register, individual declared land value, house price and socioeconomic data and second model is trained with the same data as first model but with additional POI(Point of Interest) data. Finally, third model is trained with same data as the second model but with excluding water usage and electricity usage data. As a result, second model shows the best performance based on F1-score. Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine, XGBoost and LightGBM which are tree ensemble series, show the best performance as a whole. Additionally, the complexity of the model can be reduced through eliminating independent variables that have correlation coefficient between the variables and vacant house status lower than the 0.1 based on absolute value. Finally, this study suggests XGBoost and LightGBM based machine learning model, which can handle missing values, as final vacant house prediction model.

가시설 벽체 사고에 따른 복구비용 및 계측비용 분석 (Analysis of Accident and Measurement Costs Resulting from Incidents in Retaining Walls)

  • 이동건;최지열;유정연;송기일
    • 한국지반신소재학회논문집
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2023
  • 굴착 공사 중 가시설의 안정성을 확보하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 설계 시 지반의 안정성을 수치해석을 통해 분석하고 있지만, 시공시에는 여건이 달라지기 때문에 계측으로 벽체 안정성을 분석하는 일은 필수불가결한 일이다. 공사현장에서의 계측비용은 매우 낮은 단가로 책정되어있으며 이를 통해 흙막이 벽체의 사고위험성은 예측되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 흙막이 벽체의 자동 혹은 무선 시스템 계측의 중요성을 가상의 사고사례 분석을 통해 공사기간 및 사고비용을 산정하고 이를 계측비용과 비교하여 무선 및 자동계측 업무의 중요성을 주장하였다. 굴착공사 중 중대형 파괴 시 사고처리 금액에 대하여 계측비용은 5% 미만으로 계측비용을 증가시켜 사고를 미연에 방지하는 것이 경제적일 수 있다.

CGE 모형을 활용한 농업 가뭄의 직간접적 파급효과 계측 - 쌀 생산성을 중심으로 - (Evaluation of Economic Effects of Agricultural Drought Using CGE Model - Focus on Rice Productivity -)

  • 김현웅;성재훈
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2022
  • Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to droughts, and drought damage on the agriculture sector could have effects on other sector. Droughts have different characteristics compared to other extreme events, which means more sophisticated methods considering the characteristics of droughts are required when measuring their damage. The purpose of this study is to analyze the damage of droughts based on limited computational general equilibrium model. To be specific, we constructed a CGE model focusing on the agriculture sector in Korea. Also, to limit changes in land use and labor, we limited them, and assume droughts only have effects on productivity of value-added. Lastly, we simulate drought effects on rice production in Korea based on several climate scenarios and GCM to identify the economic effects of droughts. The results show that 1) the cumulated damage of droughts during 2021~2040 is higher than other periods (2040~2061, 2081~2100), 2) the correlation between the damage of droughts and SSP scenarios is insignificant. This result implies the necessity of the effective drought risk management to prevent future droughts effects, irrespective of mitigation policies. 3) Due to increases in rice price, GDP of rice sector is increased. However, GDP of the other sector and consumer welfare are decreased. This result show that indirect effects of droughts would be more important when measuring drought effects on agriculture sector.

Trade Linkage and Transmission of Geopolitical Risks: Evidence from the Peace Progress in 2018

  • Taehyun Kim;Yongjun Kim
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.45-62
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - Using unexpected changes in geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula as a quasi-natural experimental setting, we examine whether and how geopolitical risks travel across borders through firm-level imports and exports linkages. We also test whether the effects are driven by either imports or exports and assess whether firms can effectively hedge themselves against geopolitical risks. Design/methodology - We focus on a series of unanticipated geopolitical events taken place in Korea in 2018. Making use of the shocks to geopolitical climate, we identify five milestone events toward peace talks. We employ the event studies methodology. We examine heterogenous firm-level stock price reactions around key event dates depending on firms' exposure to geopolitical risks. As a measure of firms' exposure to geopolitical risks in Korea, we utilize a text-based measure of firm-level trade links. When a firm announces and discusses its purchase of inputs from Korea or sales of outputs to Korea in their annual disclosure filings, we define a firm to have a trade relationship with Korea and have exposure to Korean geopolitical risks. Similarly, we use a measure of a firm's hedging policies based on a firm's textual mention of the use of foreign exchange derivatives in their annual disclosure. Findings - We find that U.S. firms that have direct trade links to Korea gained significantly more value when the intensity of geopolitical risks drops compared to firms without such trade links to Korea. The effects are pronounced for firms purchasing inputs from or selling outputs to Korea. We find that the effectiveness of foreign exchange hedging against geopolitical risks is limited. Originality/value - We document the international transmission of geopolitical uncertainty through trade linkages. Export links as well as import links serve as important nexus of transmission of geopolitical risks across borders. Hedging strategies involving foreign-exchanges derivatives do not seem to insulate firms again geopolitical risks. With the recent movements of localization and reshuffling of the global value chain, our results suggest a significant impact of geopolitical risks in Korea on the construction of the global value chain.

A Disk-based Archival Storage System Using the EOS Erasure Coding Implementation for the ALICE Experiment at the CERN LHC

  • Ahn, Sang Un;Betev, Latchezar;Bonfillou, Eric;Han, Heejune;Kim, Jeongheon;Lee, Seung Hee;Panzer-Steindel, Bernd;Peters, Andreas-Joachim;Yoon, Heejun
    • Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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    • 제10권spc호
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2022
  • Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI) is a Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) Tier-1 center mandated to preserve raw data produced from A Large Ion Collider Experiment (ALICE) experiment using the world's largest particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). Physical medium used widely for long-term data preservation is tape, thanks to its reliability and least price per capacity compared to other media such as optical disk, hard disk, and solid-state disk. However, decreasing numbers of manufacturers for both tape drives and cartridges, and patent disputes among them escalated risk of market. As alternative to tape-based data preservation strategy, we proposed disk-only erasure-coded archival storage system, Custodial Disk Storage (CDS), powered by Exascale Open Storage (EOS), an open-source storage management software developed by CERN. CDS system consists of 18 high density Just-Bunch-Of-Disks (JBOD) enclosures attached to 9 servers through 12 Gbps Serial Attached SCSI (SAS) Host Bus Adapter (HBA) interfaces via multiple paths for redundancy and multiplexing. For data protection, we introduced Reed-Solomon (RS) (16, 4) Erasure Coding (EC) layout, where the number of data and parity blocks are 12 and 4 respectively, which gives the annual data loss probability equivalent to 5×10-14. In this paper, we discuss CDS system design based on JBOD products, performance limitations, and data protection strategy accommodating EOS EC implementation. We present CDS operations for ALICE experiment and long-term power consumption measurement.

ESG투자를 통한 최적자산배분과 후생개선 요인분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Analysis of Optimal Asset Allocation and Welfare Improvemant Factors through ESG Investment)

  • 현상균;이정석;이준희
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제51권2호
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    • pp.171-184
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: First, this paper suggests an alternative approach to find optimal portfolio (stocks, bonds and ESG stocks) under the maximizing utility of investors. Second, we include ESG stocks in our optimal portfolio, and compare improvement of welfares in the case with and without ESG stocks in portfolio. Methods: Our main method of analysis follows Brennan et al(2002), designed under the continuous time framework. We assume that the dynamics of stock price follow the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) while the short rate have the Vasicek model. For the utility function of investors, we use the Power Utility Function, which commonly used in financial studies. The optimal portfolio and welfares are derived in the partial equilibrium. The parameters are estimated by using Kalman filter and ordinary least square method. Results: During the overall analysis period, the portfolio including ESG, did not show clear welfare improvement. In 2017, it has slightly exceeded this benchmark 1, showing the possibility of improvement, but the ESG stocks we selected have not strongly shown statistically significant welfare improvement results. This paper showed that the factors affecting optimal asset allocation and welfare improvement were different each other. We also found that the proportion of optimal asset allocation was affected by factors such as asset return, volatility, and inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, similar to traditional financial theory. Conclusion: The portfolio with ESG investment did not show significant results in welfare improvement is due to that 1) the KRX ESG Leaders 150 selected in our study is an index based on ESG integrated scores, which are designed to affect stability rather than profitability. And 2) Korea has a short history of ESG investment. During the limited analysis period, the performance of stock-related assets was inferior to bond assets at the time of the interest rate drop.

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE PRACTICE OF TAIWAN LISTED CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES AND ITS CORRELATION WITH INDUSTRIAL FEATURES

  • Hui-Yu Chou
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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    • pp.413-419
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    • 2011
  • Corporate governance is a system articulating the division of responsibilities among different company members, and defining the running rules and procedures for making decisions on corporate affairs. The separation of ownership and management in modern enterprises brings agency problems to the company shareholders, and it is wildly believed that good practice on corporate governance is essential to prevent managers from taking actions by which profiteering their own benefits but compromising the interests of shareholders. This research investigates the level of companies' compliance with the corporate governance codes to find whether significant differences in corporate governance practice exist between the listed construction companies and the national leading companies in Taiwan. Further exploration focuses on the correlation between the compliance level and the industrial features. The investigation finds that: (1)Construction companies display lower levels of corporate governance compliance; (2)Construction companies display lower levels of structural board independence and respect for stakeholders; (3)Compliance levels of construction companies are correlated with the number of employees and the ownership concentration; (4)Compliance levels of the whole sample companies are correlated with the factors representing firm size, such as turnover, capital and number of employees, but are independent of profitability as well as stock price volatility. The above empirical evidence characterizes the features of corporate governance in Taiwan listed construction companies, including: (1)Large companies lurking high risk of agency problems have more willingness to conduct corporate governance and meanwhile can afford higher costs for the conduction, so that their compliance level would be higher than smaller companies; (2)Construction companies in Taiwan have higher ownership concentration, on account of the industrial tradition of family business, and therefore pay less attention to the compliance with structural board independence and respect for stakeholders. However, the conclusions indicate that further studies are essential to clarify whether the above disparities would lead to a negative cycle of corporate governance practice in construction industry. The benefits of corporate governance should unfold more evidently to convince construction companies for improving their investment environment and stimulating their healthy growth.

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순환여과시스템에서 양식되는 바리과 어류 3종[능성어, (Hyporthodus septemfasciatus), 자바리(Epinephelus moara), 교잡종 대왕자바리(E. moara ♀× E. lanceolatus ♂)]의 감염성 질병 모니터링 (Monitoring of infectious diseases in three grouper species (Hyporthodus septemfasciatus, Epinephelus moara and E. moara ♀× E. lanceolatus ♂) cultured in recirculating aquaculture systems)

  • 최희재;최다연;조성현;신제윤;박종연;방인철;강예재
    • 한국어병학회지
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.97-110
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    • 2024
  • The Serranidae is high-quality fish species with good meat quality and is traded at high price, and is attracting attention in South Korea as a cultured species that creates high added value. However, the high-density fish farming for mass production increases the risk of mass mortality due to infectious diseases, leading to enormous economic losses. Therefore, in order to safely prevent and protect farmed fish from serious infectious diseases, it is necessary to conduct disease monitoring on a regular basis. In this study, Hyporthodus septemfasciatus, Epinephelus moara, and the hybrid longtooth grouper (E. moara ♀×E. lanceolatus ♂) were collected once a month from fish farm of Garorim and Aquabiotech Co., Ltd for a total of six months, from July to December 2023. We investigated infections of five species of bacterial diseases, including Flavobacterium columnare, six species of viral diseases, including LCDV (lymphocystis disease virus), and parasitic pathogens in grouper farms. As the result, Vibrio vulnificus and V. harveyi were detected in H. septemfasciatus in August, in the case of viral diseases, NNV was detected in H. septemfasciatus from July to August using RT-PCR or PCR. Finally, In the case of parasitic diseases, Tricodina sp. was detected in E. moara and the hybrid longtooth grouper from August to December.

A Case Study of Decision-Making Towards Using Online Food Distribution Services After Covid-19 In Vietnam

  • Thuc Duc TRAN;Thong Van PHAM;Phu Cam Thi NGUYEN;Loc Tan LOUIS;Ngoc Nhu Thi LE
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.33-47
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Most emerging-market countries are concerned about the technology boom, which is accompanied by an increase in revenue from online sales and services. This finding has been demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, is this tendency continuing in the new normal, and what factors are driving the increase in consumer decisions? The purpose of this research is to investigate how the decision to utilize online services will be affected in the new normal as well as propose a new research approach in this field. Research Design, Methodology and Approach: By following a deductive research method associated with positivist philosophy, a survey in South Vietnam with 426 respondents using a convenience sampling method was conducted. The reliability of the measurement scales was examined by using the SPSS program. The SmartPLS programme was utilised to assess the measurement and structural models as well as test hypotheses by using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Results: According to the research findings, decision-making has been impacted by social influences, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, perceived trust, perceived price, and perceived convenience. Conclusions: The research results also bring significant contributions not only in practice in providing management implications but also in theory. The research model has also demonstrated the feasibility of employing the stimuli-organism-response framework and combining the theory of perceived risk with the technology acceptance model via the explanation of decision-making.