Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning (농촌계획)

Korean Society of Rural Planning (한국농촌계획학회)
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Evaluation of Economic Effects of Agricultural Drought Using CGE Model - Focus on Rice Productivity -

CGE 모형을 활용한 농업 가뭄의 직간접적 파급효과 계측 - 쌀 생산성을 중심으로 -

  • Kim, Hyeon-Woong (Dept. of Environment & Resources Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Sung, Jae-Hoon (Dept. of Environment & Resources Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 김현웅 (한국농촌경제연구원 환경자원연구부 ) ;
  • 성재훈 (한국농촌경제연구원 환경자원연구부)
  • Received : 2022.10.31
  • Accepted : 2022.11.30
  • Published : 2022.11.30
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Abstract

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to droughts, and drought damage on the agriculture sector could have effects on other sector. Droughts have different characteristics compared to other extreme events, which means more sophisticated methods considering the characteristics of droughts are required when measuring their damage. The purpose of this study is to analyze the damage of droughts based on limited computational general equilibrium model. To be specific, we constructed a CGE model focusing on the agriculture sector in Korea. Also, to limit changes in land use and labor, we limited them, and assume droughts only have effects on productivity of value-added. Lastly, we simulate drought effects on rice production in Korea based on several climate scenarios and GCM to identify the economic effects of droughts. The results show that 1) the cumulated damage of droughts during 2021~2040 is higher than other periods (2040~2061, 2081~2100), 2) the correlation between the damage of droughts and SSP scenarios is insignificant. This result implies the necessity of the effective drought risk management to prevent future droughts effects, irrespective of mitigation policies. 3) Due to increases in rice price, GDP of rice sector is increased. However, GDP of the other sector and consumer welfare are decreased. This result show that indirect effects of droughts would be more important when measuring drought effects on agriculture sector.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원 신농업기후변화 대응체계구축 사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었음(PJ015692032022, 과제명: 농업 가뭄 영향평가를 위한 토양-물-에너지-식량 넥서스 기술 개발)

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