• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.233-253
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• 2014

Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.100 no.4
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• pp.630-638
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• 2011

This study aims to verify the economic validity of the REDD project in North Korea by estimating the potential carbon credits and the cost of REDD project. The REDD potential credits of North Korea are estimated based on the international statistics of forest area and population from 1990 to 2010, and the cost of REDD project is estimated indirectly by annual land opportunity cost of agriculture assuming that South Korea will aid the food production per area in North Korea. When the 25% reduction scenario was applied to the annual deforestation rate in North Korea, the potential REDD credits were estimated to be $4,232million{\sim}5,290milliontCO_2eq.$ for 20 years. It would account for 28~35% of South Korea's national medium-term greenhouse gas reduction target. On the other hand, the break-even price of REDD project was calculated as the profit of agriculture in the land available by forest conversion in North Korea. It was estimated to be 19.19$/$tCO_2eq.$ when the non-permanence risk of forest conserved through a REDD contract is assumed to be 20%. This price is higher than the price of REDD carbon credit 5$/$tCO_2eq.$ dealt in the 2010 voluntary carbon market, leading to no economic feasibility. However, REDD project provides co-benefits besides climate mitigation. As previous studies indicate, the break-even price is lower than 20$/$tCO_2eq.$, which is the social marginal cost of greenhouse gas emissions by loss of forest. Therefore REDD in North Korea can be justified against the social benefits. The economic feasibility of REDD project in North Korea can be largely influenced by the risk percentage. Thus, North Korean REDD project needs a strong guarantee and involvement by the government and people of North Korea to assure the project's economic feasibility.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.217-226
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• 2017

Although the effects of climate change are universal, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are considered to be most vulnerable. SIDS heavily rely on imported oil and fossil fuels for electricity generation and transportation, which makes them economically vulnerable and exposed to fluctuating oil price. Among the reasons SIDS highly depend on diesel fuel is due to the dispersed population living in remote islands which means, providing electricity through on on-grid system is difficult. Fiji as one of the SIDS, has actively promoted renewable sourced energy through a national plan to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In order to determine how feasible implementing a renewable energy (RE) system will be in Fiji, this study chose a remote island called Mavuva Island to test application of a hybrid RE system using HOMER. A combination of energy storage system (ESS), solar photovoltaic (PV) and diesel generator turns out to be the most cost effective and optimal configuration, resulting in effective greenhouse gas reduction for the given region.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2014

In this study, the change characteristics of urban spatial structure in Daegu were analyzed connecting with urban planning for efficient urban management. Urban development process from 1970 to 2010 in Daegu was analyzed utilizing Getis-Ord $G_i^*$ methodology, a spatial statistical method, and it was identified that Daegu was in the stage of disurbanization. However, as Daegu orients multi-nuclei city, it was difficult to explain the stage of urban development after disurbanization in 2000. Accordingly, to analyze detailed changes in spatial structure in multi-centric areas after 2000, population, land price and employment factor changes were analyzed using Bachi Measurement. According to analytical results, multi-centralization process has been continued in Daegu. Urban core area and Chilgok area showed spatial structure change into distribution process, Ansim area into concentration process, and Seongseo and Talseo area into concentration and distribution process. Therefore, urban planning considering the regional characteristics are needed for efficient urban management.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.216-224
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• 1997

In the recent 10 years the protected cultivation area in Korea has been increased rapidly, and now it is very important issue to develop the heating and cooling system using the renewable energy, because the greenhouse heating and cooling cost is increased with the fossil fuel price rises. Actually the development of the cooling system is more difficult than that of the heating system, since the cooling load of greenhouse in the summer season is 2―3 times larger than the heating load in the winter season. In this study low temperature phase change materials (LTPCM) for the cold storage system were selected and developed. The theoretical and experimental analysis of thermal characteristics of LTPCM makes it possible to control the phase change temperature and stabilize the thermo-physical properties. LTPCM developed in this study has good advantages to be used as the cold storage not only for the house and working space in factory but also for the cold storage of agricultural and live-stock products.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.20-29
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• 2006

Modeling urban climate caused by land use conversion is critical for human welfare and sustainable development, but has hampered because detailed information on urban characteristics is hard to obtain. With the advantage of satellite observations and the new statistical boundary system, this paper measures the economic and environmental effects of green area loss due to land use conversion in urban areas. To perform this purpose, data were collected from the various sources basic statistical unit data from the National Statistical Office, digital maps from the National Geographic Information Institute, satellite images, and field surveys when necessary. All data (maps and attributes) are built into the geographic information system (GIS). This paper also utilizes Landsat TM 5 imagery of Daegu city to derive vegetation index and to measure average surface temperature. The satellite data were examined using standard image processing software, ERDAS IMAGINE, and the results of the digital processing were presented with ARCVIEW(v.3.3). SAS package was used to perform statistical analyses. This study presents that there exists a strong relationship between land use change and climatic change as well as land price change. Based on results of the analysis, this paper suggests that planners should implement effective tools and policies of urban growth management to detect environmental quality and to make right decisions on policies concerning smart urban growth.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.21-28
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• 2007

In my study, I analysed and criticised the change of applied works based on a design drawing of a private forest road in Chungchengnam province from 1990 to 2003. The aim of this study is to obtain the fundamental resources for establishment the green forest road which is environment friendly. Working expenses of forest road was gradually increased by a business year. In particular, the working expenses dramatically increased in 1999-2000. In change rate of cost of construction by works, earth work rate of the cost of constructions was declined: from 25.4% in 1990-1999, to 18.5% in 2000-2003. However, the total cost of the construction of slope protection work and structural work increased. Nevertheless the rate of the cost of constructions are not increased where as the earth work rate of the cost of constructions were reduced. The rate of the price construction materials and the cost of construction was the main causes which was led by the extension of the standard requirement of applied work and the increase of the materials of applied work. In other word, materials of structural work and slope protection work increased. If the increase of the cost of construction has seem through the increase of contractual materials and extension of the standard requirement would led to weak competitiveness of forest road. Therefore, diverse method of constructions need to apply and a new method should be developed.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.3-29
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• 1990

Korean input-output tables for 1975 and 1985 are first deflated into 1975 constant domestic prices(hypothetical terms), and the constant price I-O data are used to decompose the sources of industrial growth and structural change during the 1975-85 period. Using the same methodology, our results for the 1975-85 period are then linked to the results for the earlier period(1955-75) in order to analyze and evaluate the "demand-side" sources of industrialization over the past three decades. The results from the decomposition of the whole economy indicate that over three decades(1955-85) the relative contribution of domestic demand expansion (DDE) to growth and structural change has continuously declined while the contribution of export expansion(EE) has generally continued to rise. The contribution of import-substitution(IS) which had been significantly higher than that of EE during 1955-63 declined substantially, remaining at an insignificantly low level during the period following 1963. Although it is well known that the government's industrial policy in the 1970s emphasized import-substitution in heavy and chemical industries, no significant changes in the export-oriented growth pattern could be observed even for that period, except for a minor decline in the relative contribution of EE. This may be attributed to the substantially larger, backward-linkage effects of EE than that of IS. The sources-of-growth decompositions for major branches of the manufacturing sector generally support the major conclusions derived from the decomposition for the whole economy. The IS contribution which had been significantly high in almost all manufacturing branches during the 1955-63 period declined to low levels in all but two branches, heavy industry and machinery, during the following period. On the other hand, the relative contribution of EE showed a continuous rise in almost all manufacturing branches(except food processing). Finally, the sources of growth for 1975-85 which were decomposed by detailed sub branches, are analyzed by correlating them with changes in relative prices and industrial protection rates by sub-branches for the same period. A major result is that contrary to general expectations, the EE contributions by sub-branch are not negatively correlated with the nominal rates of protection and/or the effective rates of protection for the same sub-branches. It is also found that no statistically significant, positive correlation exists between IS contributions and nominal protection rates or effective protection rates. These unexpected results may be explained by the peculiar nature of the Korean system of industrial incentives for the past period.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.83-90
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• 2016

Despite the ability of biochar to enhance soil fertility and to mitigate greenhouse gas, its carbon sequestration and profit analysis with arable land application have been a few evaluated. This study was conducted to estimate carbon sequestration and to evaluate profit of greenhouse gas mitigation during corn cultivation periods. For the experiment, the biochar application rates were consisted of pig compost(non application), 2,600(0.2%), 13,000(1%), and 26,000(2%) kg/ha based on pig compost application. For predicting soil carbon sequestration of biochar application, it was appeared to be linear model of Y = 0.5523X - 742.57 ($r^2=0.939^{**}$). Based on this equation, soil carbon sequestration by 0.2, 1 and 2% biochar application was estimated to be 1,235, 3,978, and 14,794 kg/ha, and their mitigations of $CO_2$-eq. emissions were estimated to be 4.5, 14.6, and 54.2 ton/ha, respectively. Their profits were estimated at $14.6 for lowest and $452 for highest. In Korea Climate Exchange, it was estimated that the market price of $CO_2$ in corn cultivation periods with 0.2, 1 and 2% biochar application was $35.6, $115.3 and $428.2 per hectare, respectively. For the plant growth response, it was observed that plant height and fresh ear yield were not significantly different among the treatments. Therefore, these experimental results might be fundamental data for assuming a carbon trading mechanism exists for biochar soil application in agricultural practices.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2002

This study examined the influence of the separation of prescribing and dispensing roles(SPD) policy implemented in Korea in July 2000, especially on the change in the net profit of medical institutions. Using the data set from the Korea's National Health Insurance and the previous research, this study elicited the following main results. First, tertiary care institutions was estimated to lose about 631 billion won after the SPD policy. Second, general hospitals and hospitals gained about 557 billion and 564 billion won, respectively. Third, it is shown that clinics also gained 389-659 billion won. Finally, however, the change in net profit of medical institutions after the SPD policy largely depends on different estimation models. Moreover, it also varies from the assumptions on the price differential of a reimbursable drug which worked as cross-subsidy to insufficient physician's fee before the SPD policy. Despite such limitations as lack of data outside of the National Health Insurance's coverage, this study differs from others. This is the first research to explore the effect of the SPD policy on different types of medical institutions and to attempt to purely focus on the SPD policy. In this study, we can draw the policy implication that preparing for a policy change, the government should set up the policy evaluation system to collect the concerned data and develop the methodologies in advance to the policy implementation.