• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.71-79
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• 2008

Generally the price of agricultural products has much different characteristics from that of manufacturing products. If products have the limitation of long-term storage and the short period of cultivation, the price of products can be more unstable. Moreover, the price forecasting is very difficult because it doesn't follow any cycle or trend. However price can be regarded as risk instead of uncertainty if we can calculate the probability of price. Reliability analysis techniques are used for forecasting the price change of Chinese cabbage. This study aims to show the usability of reliability analysis for price forecasting. A price-forecasting model was developed based on weather data of the first 10 days of the full cultivating cycle (80 days) 70 days and the average price and standard deviation of wholesale market prices from 1996 to 2001 and applied to forecast the boom price, or the orice which is over the tolerance of market prices, of upland Chinese cabbage in 2002 and 2003. Applied results showed the possibility of boom price forecasting using reliability analysis techniques.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.679-708
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• 2015

Almost all of natural gas demand in Korea is currently met by overseas LNG imports. More than 80% of LNG is imported through the mid to long-term contracts with oil-linked pricing. Despite LNG price estimation provides valuable information with various interested parties, an empirical study as well as an econometric model on LNG price hasn't yet been available in Korea. This paper therefore, aims at analyzing not only whether the long-run equilibrium relationship between oil prices and Korean LNG prices exists but also whether structural change occurred in such relationship. Further, it aims at building a conditional VECM taking account of a structural change. According to the final model, an oil price shock is passed through to the LNG prices in nonlinear and different manner from the past.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.79-91
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• 2016

This paper is the first of its kind using a non-linear approach based on cross-correlation function (CCF) to investigate the information arrival hypothesis in crude palm oil (CPO) futures market. Based on daily data from 1986 to 2010, our empirical results reveal that: First, the volume of volatility is not a proxy of information flow. Second, dependence causality running from current return to future volume in conditional variance exhibit an asymmetric pattern of time span with different signs of correlation between price and volume series. This finding indicates the presence of noise traders' hypothesis of price-volume interaction in CPO futures market. Both findings suggest that this futures market is weak-form inefficiency. In terms of investors' behavior, they tend to change their expectations on current return based on errors made in previous trade in generating abnormal volume in the subsequent period. As implied, it is advisable for the investors devise their future trading strategies according to time span and changes of return.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.3-21
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• 2010

By the significant structural change in 1999, a partial privatization has occurred in Korean fossil-fuel power generation sector. Under the current price scheme wholesale electricity price is dependent on output size, and hence, may not satisfy the assumption of price-taking producers. The purpose of our study is constructing the productivity change measurements of Korean power generation sector taking into account possibly imperfect competition and variable returns to scale. Our approach based on Harrison (1994) and Levinsohn (1993) derives the plant-level productivity measurements of the period between 2001 and 2007, as well as the measurements of mark-ups and returns to scale. It is shown that the mark-up size is dependent on the plants' fuel type and is decreasing over time. Allowing for imperfect competition and variable returns to scale adjusts the productivity measurements substantially.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.27-36
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• 1986

This paper deals with four types of multiple unit simultaneous auctions such as the discriminating. uniform-price, lowest accepted-price, and progressive auctions. These auctions have been studied by Vickrey, Ortega-Reichert, Herris and Raviv and so forth. In this paper, their studies are extended to the case with a reserve price and an entry fee, and then the equilibrium bidding strategy are presented. Further, those are analyzed with respect to the change of a reserve price, an entry fee, and the number of bidders and objects.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1361-1369
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• 2014

This research is for analyzing the change rate of housing rent price index produced by KAB (Korea Appraisal Board) in the monthly periodical, Survey on Housing Monthly Rent. The index is a very important and useful indicator to understand and diagnose the house rental market. However, the index is criticized in that it tends to decline when the price level of Jeonse (i.e., a typical type of dwellings in Korea, generally leased on a deposit basis for 1 or 2 years) is highly going up, which is inconsistent with the actual economic sentiment of tenants. We verify the reason why such phenomenon occurs and suggest a simple but novel method to analyze properly the change rate of the index. The main findings are as follows. The key factor to trigger the problem is the use of the conversion rate for Jeonse-to-monthly rent for constructing the rent price indexes. We separate the effect of the conversion rate out of the change rate of the index and quantify the adjusted real change rate showing an increase of the rent price level which is masked by the conversion rate before.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.269-275
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• 2002

Recently, Korea's electric industry has experienced substantial changes in its structure and function including the introduction of competition in the generation sector. Korea is in the early stages of market competition where the market price is determined by generation costs. In the future, the market Price will be determined by generators'bids. Therefore, the generators'profit is determined by market pool price, the prospects of pool price are very important for new capacity investment decision made by generators and IPPS. This study analyzes hourly marginal costs and LOLP considering basic generation mix and characteristics develops the relationship of pool price and Profit by generation-type using the change in reserve margin, and proposes basic direction for profits variation and supply-demand analysis in the electricity market in future.

• Journal of Korea Technical Association of The Pulp and Paper Industry
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.128-136
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• 2011

In order to investigate the relationship between the prices of wood chips and pulps, regression analysis and cointegration test were conducted. Test results indicated that pulp producers adjusted pulp price in response to the change in wood-chip price and there were a long-run relationship between these prices. This implied that by raising the selling price of pulp, pulp producers avoid profit loss incurred by the increase in the wood-chip price. The existence of cointegration between wood chips and pulp prices implied that pulp producers were competing when they set the selling price of pulp.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.689-690
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• 2015

The remodeling of multi-family houses (MFH) has emerged as a significant issue in the construction industry. Many decision makers struggle with the decision to remodel because of insufficient information including standards or methods for projecting the price of their structure after remodeling. In this context, this research analyzed the change in price of MFHs after remodeling. To achieve this research goal, (i) the price data from 14 groups (i.e., MFH renovation cases and equivalent MFH cases without remodeling) were collected, and (ii) the trend of price variation among each group was analyzed. Finally, this research suggests price variations of each group in terms of three different time points (i.e., before remodeling, after remodeling, and the present), which shows the effects of remodeling on the price of MFHs. This research offers a framework for the development of a model that will predict the price of an MFH after remodeling.