• 제목/요약/키워드: Predictive system

검색결과 1,209건 처리시간 0.033초

Methodology for Developing a Predictive Model for Highway Traffic Information Using LSTM (LSTM을 활용한 고속도로 교통정보 예측 모델 개발 방법론)

  • Yoseph Lee;Hyoung-suk Jin;Yejin Kim;Sung-ho Park;Ilsoo Yun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2023
  • With the recent developments in big data and deep learning, a variety of traffic information is collected widely and used for traffic operations. In particular, long short-term memory (LSTM) is used in the field of traffic information prediction with time series characteristics. Since trends, seasons, and cycles differ due to the nature of time series data input for an LSTM, a trial-and-error method based on characteristics of the data is essential for prediction models based on time series data in order to find hyperparameters. If a methodology is established to find suitable hyperparameters, it is possible to reduce the time spent in constructing high-accuracy models. Therefore, in this study, a traffic information prediction model is developed based on highway vehicle detection system (VDS) data and LSTM, and an impact assessment is conducted through changes in the LSTM evaluation indicators for each hyperparameter. In addition, a methodology for finding hyperparameters suitable for predicting highway traffic information in the transportation field is presented.

Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio and Serum Biomarkers : A Potential Tool for Prediction of Clinically Relevant Cerebral Vasospasm after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

  • Osman Kula;Burak Gunay;Merve Yaren Kayabas;Yener Akturk;Ezgi Kula;Banu Tutunculer;Necdet Sut;Serdar Solak
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제66권6호
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    • pp.681-689
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    • 2023
  • Objective : Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a condition characterized by bleeding in the subarachnoid space, often resulting from the rupture of a cerebral aneurysm. Delayed cerebral ischemia caused by vasospasm is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in SAH patients, and inflammatory markers such as systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), systemic inflammatory index (SII), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and derived NLR (dNLR) have shown potential in predicting clinical vasospasm and outcomes in SAH patients. This article aims to investigate the relationship between inflammatory markers and cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmatic SAH (aSAH) and evaluate the predictive value of various indices, including SIRI, SII, NLR, and dNLR, in predicting clinical vasospasm. Methods : A retrospective analysis was performed on a cohort of 96 patients who met the inclusion criteria out of a total of 139 patients admitted Trakya University Hospital with a confirmed diagnosis of aSAH between January 2013 and December 2021. Diagnostic procedures, neurological examinations, and laboratory tests were performed to assess the patients' condition. The Student's t-test compared age variables, while the chi-square test compared categorical variables between the non-vasospasm (NVS) and vasospasm (VS) groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of laboratory parameters, calculating the area under the ROC curve, cut-off values, sensitivity, and specificity. A significance level of p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results : The study included 96 patients divided into two groups : NVS and VS. Various laboratory parameters, such as NLR, SII, and dNLR, were measured daily for 15 days, and statistically significant differences were found in NLR on 7 days, with specific cut-off values identified for each day. SII showed a significant difference on day 9, while dNLR had significant differences on days 2, 4, and 9. Graphs depicting the values of these markers for each day are provided. Conclusion : Neuroinflammatory biomarkers, when used alongside radiology and scoring scales, can aid in predicting prognosis, determining severity and treatment decisions for aSAH, and further studies with larger patient groups are needed to gain more insights.

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning based Prediction Models for University Students Dropout (머신러닝 기반 대학생 중도 탈락 예측 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Seok-Bong Jeong;Du-Yon Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2023
  • The increase in the dropout rate of college students nationwide has a serious negative impact on universities and society as well as individual students. In order to proactive identify students at risk of dropout, this study built a decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, and deep learning-based dropout prediction model using academic data that can be easily obtained from each university's academic management system. Their performances were subsequently analyzed and compared. The analysis revealed that while the logistic regression-based prediction model exhibited the highest recall rate, its f-1 value and ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve) value were comparatively lower. On the other hand, the random forest-based prediction model demonstrated superior performance across all other metrics except recall value. In addition, in order to assess model performance over distinct prediction periods, we divided these periods into short-term (within one semester), medium-term (within two semesters), and long-term (within three semesters). The results underscored that the long-term prediction yielded the highest predictive efficacy. Through this study, each university is expected to be able to identify students who are expected to be dropped out early, reduce the dropout rate through intensive management, and further contribute to the stabilization of university finances.

Comparison of One- and Two-Region of Interest Strain Elastography Measurements in the Differential Diagnosis of Breast Masses

  • Hee Jeong Park;Sun Mi Kim;Bo La Yun;Mijung Jang;Bohyoung Kim;Soo Hyun Lee;Hye Shin Ahn
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.431-441
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    • 2020
  • Objective: To compare the diagnostic performance and interobserver variability of strain ratio obtained from one or two regions of interest (ROI) on breast elastography. Materials and Methods: From April to May 2016, 140 breast masses in 140 patients who underwent conventional ultrasonography (US) with strain elastography followed by US-guided biopsy were evaluated. Three experienced breast radiologists reviewed recorded US and elastography images, measured strain ratios, and categorized them according to the American College of Radiology breast imaging reporting and data system lexicon. Strain ratio was obtained using the 1-ROI method (one ROI drawn on the target mass), and the 2-ROI method (one ROI in the target mass and another in reference fat tissue). The diagnostic performance of the three radiologists among datasets and optimal cut-off values for strain ratios were evaluated. Interobserver variability of strain ratio for each ROI method was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient values, Bland-Altman plots, and coefficients of variation. Results: Compared to US alone, US combined with the strain ratio measured using either ROI method significantly improved specificity, positive predictive value, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (all p values < 0.05). Strain ratio obtained using the 1-ROI method showed higher interobserver agreement between the three radiologists without a significant difference in AUC for differentiating breast cancer when the optimal strain ratio cut-off value was used, compared with the 2-ROI method (AUC: 0.788 vs. 0.783, 0.693 vs. 0.715, and 0.691 vs. 0.686, respectively, all p values > 0.05). Conclusion: Strain ratios obtained using the 1-ROI method showed higher interobserver agreement without a significant difference in AUC, compared to those obtained using the 2-ROI method. Considering that the 1-ROI method can reduce performers' efforts, it could have an important role in improving the diagnostic performance of breast US by enabling consistent management of breast lesions.

Detection of Contralateral Breast Cancer Using Diffusion-Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Women with Newly Diagnosed Breast Cancer: Comparison with Combined Mammography and Whole-Breast Ultrasound

  • Su Min Ha;Jung Min Chang;Su Hyun Lee;Eun Sil Kim;Soo-Yeon Kim;Yeon Soo Kim;Nariya Cho;Woo Kyung Moon
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.867-879
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To compare the screening performance of diffusion-weighted (DW) MRI and combined mammography and ultrasound (US) in detecting clinically occult contralateral breast cancer in women with newly diagnosed breast cancer. Materials and Methods: Between January 2017 and July 2018, 1148 women (mean age ± standard deviation, 53.2 ± 10.8 years) with unilateral breast cancer and no clinical abnormalities in the contralateral breast underwent 3T MRI, digital mammography, and radiologist-performed whole-breast US. In this retrospective study, three radiologists independently and blindly reviewed all DW MR images (b = 1000 s/mm2 and apparent diffusion coefficient map) of the contralateral breast and assigned a Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category. For combined mammography and US evaluation, prospectively assessed results were used. Using histopathology or 1-year follow-up as the reference standard, cancer detection rate and the patient percentage with cancers detected among all women recommended for tissue diagnosis (positive predictive value; PPV2) were compared. Results: Of the 30 cases of clinically occult contralateral cancers (13 invasive and 17 ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]), DW MRI detected 23 (76.7%) cases (11 invasive and 12 DCIS), whereas combined mammography and US detected 12 (40.0%, five invasive and seven DCIS) cases. All cancers detected by combined mammography and US, except two DCIS cases, were detected by DW MRI. The cancer detection rate of DW MRI (2.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3%, 3.0%) was higher than that of combined mammography and US (1.0%; 95% CI: 0.5%, 1.8%; p = 0.009). DW MRI showed higher PPV2 (42.1%; 95% CI: 26.3%, 59.2%) than combined mammography and US (18.5%; 95% CI: 9.9%, 30.0%; p = 0.001). Conclusion: In women with newly diagnosed breast cancer, DW MRI detected significantly more contralateral breast cancers with fewer biopsy recommendations than combined mammography and US.

Automated Versus Handheld Breast Ultrasound for Evaluating Axillary Lymph Nodes in Patients With Breast Cancer

  • Sun Mi Kim;Mijung Jang;Bo La Yun;Sung Ui Shin;Jiwon Rim;Eunyoung Kang;Eun-Kyu Kim;Hee-Chul Shin;So Yeon Park;Bohyoung Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.146-156
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    • 2024
  • Objective: Automated breast ultrasound (ABUS) is a relevant imaging technique for early breast cancer diagnosis and is increasingly being used as a supplementary tool for mammography. This study compared the performance of ABUS and handheld ultrasound (HHUS) in detecting and characterizing the axillary lymph nodes (LNs) in patients with breast cancer. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of women with recently diagnosed early breast cancer (≤ T2) who underwent both ABUS and HHUS examinations for axilla (September 2017-May 2018). ABUS and HHUS findings were compared using pathological outcomes as reference standards. Diagnostic performance in predicting any axillary LN metastasis and heavy nodal-burden metastases (i.e., ≥ 3 LNs) was evaluated. The ABUS-HHUS agreement for visibility and US findings was calculated. Results: The study included 377 women (53.1 ± 11.1 years). Among 385 breast cancers in 377 patients, 101 had axillary LN metastases and 30 had heavy nodal burden metastases. ABUS identified benign-looking or suspicious axillary LNs (average, 1.4 ± 0.8) in 246 axillae (63.9%, 246/385). According to the per-breast analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy of ABUS in predicting axillary LN metastases were 43.6% (44/101), 95.1% (270/284), 75.9% (44/58), 82.6% (270/327), and 81.6% (314/385), respectively. The corresponding results for HHUS were 41.6% (42/101), 95.1% (270/284), 75.0% (42/56), 82.1% (270/329), and 81.0% (312/385), respectively, which were not significantly different from those of ABUS (P ≥ 0.53). The performance results for heavy nodal-burden metastases were 70.0% (21/30), 89.6% (318/355), 36.2% (21/58), 97.3% (318/327), and 88.1% (339/385), respectively, for ABUS and 66.7% (20/30), 89.9% (319/355), 35.7% (20/56), 97.0% (319/329), and 88.1% (339/385), respectively, for HHUS, also not showing significant difference (P ≥ 0.57). The ABUS-HHUS agreement was 95.9% (236/246; Cohen's kappa = 0.883). Conclusion: Although ABUS showed limited sensitivity in diagnosing axillary LN metastasis in early breast cancer, it was still useful as the performance was comparable to that of HHUS.

Development and Validation of MRI-Based Radiomics Models for Diagnosing Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy

  • Kyung Min Kim;Heewon Hwang;Beomseok Sohn;Kisung Park;Kyunghwa Han;Sung Soo Ahn;Wonwoo Lee;Min Kyung Chu;Kyoung Heo;Seung-Koo Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제23권12호
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    • pp.1281-1289
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Radiomic modeling using multiple regions of interest in MRI of the brain to diagnose juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to develop and validate radiomics prediction models to distinguish patients with JME from healthy controls (HCs), and to evaluate the feasibility of a radiomics approach using MRI for diagnosing JME. Materials and Methods: A total of 97 JME patients (25.6 ± 8.5 years; female, 45.5%) and 32 HCs (28.9 ± 11.4 years; female, 50.0%) were randomly split (7:3 ratio) into a training (n = 90) and a test set (n = 39) group. Radiomic features were extracted from 22 regions of interest in the brain using the T1-weighted MRI based on clinical evidence. Predictive models were trained using seven modeling methods, including a light gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, random forest, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting machine, and decision tree, with radiomics features in the training set. The performance of the models was validated and compared to the test set. The model with the highest area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was chosen, and important features in the model were identified. Results: The seven tested radiomics models, including light gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, random forest, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting machine, and decision tree, showed AUROC values of 0.817, 0.807, 0.783, 0.779, 0.767, 0.762, and 0.672, respectively. The light gradient boosting machine with the highest AUROC, albeit without statistically significant differences from the other models in pairwise comparisons, had accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores of 0.795, 0.818, 0.931, and 0.871, respectively. Radiomic features, including the putamen and ventral diencephalon, were ranked as the most important for suggesting JME. Conclusion: Radiomic models using MRI were able to differentiate JME from HCs.

Temperature Prediction and Control of Cement Preheater Using Alternative Fuels (대체연료를 사용하는 시멘트 예열실 온도 예측 제어)

  • Baasan-Ochir Baljinnyam;Yerim Lee;Boseon Yoo;Jaesik Choi
    • Resources Recycling
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 2024
  • The preheating and calcination processes in cement manufacturing, which are crucial for producing the cement intermediate product clinker, require a substantial quantity of fossil fuels to generate high-temperature thermal energy. However, owing to the ever-increasing severity of environmental pollution, considerable efforts are being made to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels in the cement industry. Several preliminary studies have focused on increasing the usage of alternative fuels like refuse-derived fuel (RDF). Alternative fuels offer several advantages, such as reduced carbon emissions, mitigated generation of nitrogen oxides, and incineration in preheaters and kilns instead of landfilling. However, owing to the diverse compositions of alternative fuels, estimating their calorific value is challenging. This makes it difficult to regulate the preheater stability, thereby limiting the usage of alternative fuels. Therefore, in this study, a model based on deep neural networks is developed to accurately predict the preheater temperature and propose optimal fuel input quantities using explainable artificial intelligence. Utilizing the proposed model in actual preheating process sites resulted in a 5% reduction in fossil fuel usage, 5%p increase in the substitution rate with alternative fuels, and 35% reduction in preheater temperature fluctuations.

Digital Breast Tomosynthesis as a Breast Cancer Screening Tool for Women with Gynecologic Cancer (부인암을 가진 여성에서 유방암의 선별검사로서의 디지털 유방단층 촬영술)

  • Da-hoon Kim;Jin Chung;Eun-Suk Cha;Jee Eun Lee;Jeoung Hyun Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • 제81권4호
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    • pp.886-898
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    • 2020
  • Purpose The purpose of our study was to evaluate digital breast tomosynthesis as a breast cancer screening modality for women with gynecologic cancer. Materials and Methods This retrospective study included patients with underlying gynecologic malignancies who underwent screening digital breast tomosynthesis for breast cancer. The cancer detection rate, recall rate, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated. PPV1 was defined as the percentage of all positive screening exams that have a tissue diagnosis of cancer within a year. PPV2 was defined as the percentage of all diagnostic exams (and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System category 4, 5 from screening setting) with a recommendation for tissue diagnosis that have cancer within a year. PPV3 was defined as the percentage of all known biopsies actually performed that resulted in a tissue diagnosis of cancer within the year. For each case of screen-detected cancer, we analyzed the age, type of underlying gynecologic malignancy, breast density, imaging features, final Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System assessment, histologic type, T and N stages, molecular subtype, and Ki-67 index. Results Among 508 patients, 7 with breast cancer were identified after a positive result. The cancer detection rate was 13.8 per 1000 screening exams, and the recall rate was 17.9%. The sensitivity was 100%, and the specificity was 83.2%. The false negative rate was 0 per 1000 exams. The PPV1, PPV2, and PPV3 were 7.7, 31.8, and 31.8, respectively. Conclusion Digital breast tomosynthesis may be a promising breast cancer screening modality for women with gynecologic cancer, based on the high cancer detection rate, high sensitivity, high PPV, and high detection rate of early-stage cancer observed in our study.

Evaluation of Endoscopic and Histological Change of Gastritis Related to Helicobacter pylori Eradication in Children (소아 Helicobacter pylori 위염에서 균 박멸과 관련된 위염의 내시경 및 조직학적 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Ju-Young;Kim, Han-Seong;Seo, Jeong-Kee
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2001
  • Purpose: The aims of this study are to investigate the effect of the eradication of H. pylori on histological change of gastric mucosa in children with H. pylori gastritis and to determine whether the histological grading by the Sydney system is valuable in predicting the effect of treatment. Methods: 1) Histological scores by the Sydney system and the endoscopic characteristics were assessed before and at least four weeks after anti-H. pylori therapy in 42 children with H. pylori gastritis. 2) In 32 children treated with omeprazole, amoxicillin and clarithromycin (OAC), pretreatment histological scores and endoscopic findings were compared between the eradicated and the noneradicated to evaluate their predictive value for the successful eradication. Results: 1) In the eradicated (27 cases), nodular gastritis significantly decreased from 89% to 63% (p<0.05). There was an significant improvement in the mean activity score from 2.06 before treatment to 0.24 after treatment (p<0.01). The mean inflammatory score also improved from 2.61 before treatment to 1.89 after treatment (p<0.05). Lymphoid follicles significantly decreased from 48% to 15% (p<0.05). Epithelial damage improved in all 4 cases. But in the noneradicated (15 cases), there was no significant change in the frequency of nodular gastritis, the mean activity score, the mean inflammatory score and the frequency of the lymphoid follicles. 2) In 32 children treated with OAC, there was a tendency that the higher was the pretreatment score of the bacterial density, the lower was the eradication rate of H. pylori (p=0.072). Conclusion: The loss of the polymorphonuclear cell infiltration is the most prominent histological change after successful eradication. There may be negative correlation of the grade of the bacterial density with the success rate of the anti-H. pylori therapy.

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