• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive growth model

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Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Pyeonyuk marketed (시중 유통판매 중인 편육에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, An-Na;Cho, Joon-Il;Son, Na-Ry;Choi, Won-Seok;Yoon, Sang-Hyun;Suh, Soo-Hwan;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Joo, In-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.206-210
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    • 2017
  • This study was performed to develope mathematical models for predicting growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in the processed meat product, pyeonyuk. Growth patterns of S. aureus in pyeonyuk were determined at the storage temperatures of 4, 10, 20, and $37^{\circ}C$ respectively. The number of S. aureus in pyeonyuk increased at all the storage temperatures. The maximum specific growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$) and lag phase duration (LPD) values were calculated by Baranyi model. The ${\mu}_{max}$ values went up, while the LPD values decreased as the storage temperature increased from $4^{\circ}C$ to $37^{\circ}C$. Square root model and polynomial model were used to develop the secondary models for ${\mu}_{max}$ and LPD, respectively. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used to evaluate the developed model and the fitness was determind to be 0.42. Therefore the developed predictive model was useful to predict the growth of S. aureus in pyeonyuk and it will help to prevent food-born disease by expanding for microbial sanitary management guide.

An Intelligent Exhibition Rule Management System using PMML

  • Moon, Hyun Sil;Cho, Yoon Ho;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the exhibition industry has developed rapidly with the development of information technologies. Most exhibitors in an exhibition plan and deploy many events that may provide advantages to visitors as a method of effective promotion. The growth and propagation of wireless technologies is a powerful marketing tool for exhibitors. However, exhibitors still rely on domain experts who are costly and time consuming because of the manual knowledge input procedure. Moreover, it is prone to biases and errors and not suitable for managing fast-growing and tremendous amounts of data that far exceed a human's ability to comprehend. To overcome these problems, data mining technology may be a great alternative, but it needs to be fit to each exhibition. This study uses data mining technology with the Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML) to suggest a system that supports intelligent services and that improves stakeholder satisfaction. This system provides advantages to the exhibitor, show organizer, and system designer, and is first enhanced by integrating data mining technologies through the knowledge of exhibition experts. Second, using the PMML, the system can automate the process of applying data mining models to solve real-time processing problems in the exhibition environment.

A BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR A DECOMPOSITION MODEL OF SOFTWARE RELIABILITY GROWTH USING A RECORD VALUE STATISTICS

  • Choi, Ki-Heon;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.243-252
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    • 2001
  • The points of failure of a decomposition process are defined to be the union of the points of failure from two component point processes for software reliability systems. Because sampling from the likelihood function of the decomposition model is difficulty, Gibbs Sampler can be applied in a straightforward manner. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with data augmentation is developed to compute the features of the posterior distribution. For model determination, we explored the prequential conditional predictive ordinate criterion that selects the best model with the largest posterior likelihood among models using all possible subsets of the component intensity functions. A numerical example with a simulated data set is given.

Application of Predictive Microbiology for Microbiological Shelf Life Estimation of Fresh-cut Salad with Short-term Temperature Abuse (PMP 모델을 활용한 시판 Salad의 Short-term Temperature Abuse 시 미생물학적 유통기한 예측에의 적용성 검토)

  • Lim, Jeong-Ho;Park, Kee-Jea;Jeong, Jin-Woong;Kim, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Tae-Young
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.633-638
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study was to investigate the growth of aerobic bacteria in fresh-cut salad during short-term temperature abuse ($4{\sim}30^{\circ}C$temperature for 1, 2, and 3 h) for 72 h and to develop predictive models for the growth of total viable cells (TVC) based on Predictive food microbiology (PFM). The tool that was used, Pathogen Modeling program (PMP 7.0), predicts the growth of Aeromonas hydrophila (broth Culture, aerobic) at pH 5.6, NaCl 2.5%, and sodium nitrite 150 ppm for 72 h. Linear models through linear regression analysis; DMFit program were created based on the results obtained at 5, 10, 20, and $30^{\circ}C$ for 72 h ($r^2$ >0.9). Secondary models for the growth rate and lag time, as a function of storage temperature, were developed using the polynomial model. The initial contamination level of fresh-cut salad was 5.6 log CFU/mL of TVC during 72 h storage, and the growth rate of TVC was shown to be 0.020~1.083 CFU/mL/h ($r^2$ >0.9). Also, the growth tendency of TVC was similar to that of PMP (grow rate: 0.017~0.235 CFU/mL/h; $r^2=0.994{\sim}1.000$). The predicted shelf life with PMP was 24.1~626.5 h, and the estimated shelf life of the fresh-cut salads with short-term temperature abuse was 15.6~31.1 h. The predicted shelf life was more than two times the observed one. This result indicates a 'fail safe' model. It can be taken to a ludicrous extreme by adopting a model that always predicts that a pathogenic microorganism will grow even under conditions so strict as to be actually impossible.

HQSAR Study of Tricyclic Azepine Derivatives as an EGFR (Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor) Inhibitors

  • Chung, Hwan-Won;Lee, Kyu-Whan;Oh, Jung-Soo;Cho, Seung-Joo
    • Molecular & Cellular Toxicology
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.159-164
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    • 2007
  • Stimulation of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is essential in signaling pathway of tumor cells. Thus, EGFR has intensely studied as an anticancer target. We developed hologram quantitative structure activity relationship (HQSAR) models for data set which consists of tricyclic azepine derivatives showing inhibitory activities for EGFR. The optimal HQSAR model was generated with fragment size of 6 to 7 while differentiating fragments having different atom and connectivity. The model showed cross-validated $q^2$ value of 0.61 and non-cross-validated $r^2$ value of 0.93. When the model was validated with an external set excluding one outlier, it gave predictive $r^2$ value of 0.43. The contribution maps generated from this model were used to interpret the atomic contribution of each atom to the overall inhibition activity. This can be used to find more efficient EGFR inhibitors.

The Changes of Natural Microflora in Liver Sausage with Kimchi Powder during Storages

  • Kim, Hyoun-Wook;Lee, Na-Kyoung;Oh, Mi-Hwa;Kim, Cheon-Jei;Paik, Hyun-Dong
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.899-906
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    • 2011
  • The objectives of this study were to apply the Baranyi model to predict the growth of natural microflora in liver sausage with added kimchi powder. Kimchi powder was added to the meat products at 0, 1, 2, and 3% levels. To determine and quantify the natural microflora in the meat products, total plate counts and counts of anaerobic bacteria and lactic acid bacteria were examined throughout the 28 d of storage. The obtained data were applied to the Baranyi growth model. The indices used for comparing predicted and observed data were $B_f$, $A_f$, root mean square error (RMSE), and $R^2$. Twelve predictive models were characterized by a high $R^2$ and small RMSE. The Baranyi model was useful in predicting natural microflora levels in these meat products with added kimchi powder during storage.

Development of a Predictive Mathematical Model for the Growth Kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes in Sesame Leaves

  • Park, Shin-Young;Choi, Jin-Won;Chung, Duck-Hwa;Kim, Min-Gon;Lee, Kyu-Ho;Kim, Keun-Sung;Bahk, Gyung-Jin;Bae, Dong-Ho;Park, Sang-Kyu;Kim, Kwang-Yup;Kim, Cheorl-Ho;Ha, Sang-Do
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.238-242
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    • 2007
  • Square root models were developed for predicting the kinetics of growth of Listeria monocytogenes in sesame leaves as a function of temperature (4, 10, or $25^{\circ}C$). At these storage temperatures, the primary growth curves fit well ($R^2=0.898$ to 0.980) to a Gompertz equation to obtain lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). The square root models for natural logarithm transformations of the LT and SGR as a function of temperature were obtained by SAS's regression analysis. As storage temperature ($4-25^{\circ}C$) decreased, LT increased and SGR decreased, respectively. Square root models were identified as appropriate secondary models for LT and SGR on the basis of most statistical indices such as coefficient determination ($R^2=0.961$ for LT, 0.988 for SGR), mean square error (MSE=0.l97 for LT, 0.005 for SGR), and accuracy factor ($A_f=1.356$ for LT, 1.251 for SGR) although the model for LT was partially not appropriate as a secondary model due to the high value of bias factor ($B_f=1.572$). In general, our secondary model supported predictions of the effects of temperature on both LT and SGR for L. monocytogenes in sesame leaves.

A Study on Deep Learning Model-based Object Classification for Big Data Environment

  • Kim, Jeong-Sig;Kim, Jinhong
    • Journal of Software Assessment and Valuation
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2021
  • Recently, conceptual information model is changing fast, and these changes are coming about as a result of individual tendency, social cultural, new circumstances and societal shifts within big data environment. Despite the data is growing more and more, now is the time to commit ourselves to the development of renewable, invaluable information of social/live commerce. Because we have problems with various insoluble data, we propose about deep learning prediction model-based object classification in social commerce of big data environment. Accordingly, it is an increased need of social commerce platform capable of handling high volumes of multiple items by users. Consequently, responding to rapid changes in users is a very significant by deep learning. Namely, promptly meet the needs of the times, and a widespread growth in big data environment with the goal of realizing in this paper.

Development of Predictive Mathematical Model for the Growth Kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus by Response Surface Model

  • Seo, Kyo-Young;Heo, Sun-Kyung;Lee, Chan;Chung, Duck-Hwa;Kim, Min-Gon;Lee, Kyu-Ho;Kim, Keun-Sung;Bahk, Gyung-Jin;Bae, Dong-Ho;Kim, Kwang-Yup;Kim, Cheorl-Ho;Ha, Sang-Do
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.1437-1444
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    • 2007
  • A response surface model was developed for predicting the growth rates of Staphylococcus aureus in tryptic soy broth (TSB) medium as a function of combined effects of temperature, pH, and NaCl. The TSB containing six different concentrations of NaCl (0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10%) was adjusted to an initial of six different pH levels (pH 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10) and incubated at 10, 20, 30, and $40^{\circ}C$. In all experimental variables, the primary growth curves were well ($r^2=0.9000$ to 0.9975) fitted to a Gompertz equation to obtain growth rates. The secondary response surface model for natural logarithm transformations of growth rates as a function of combined effects of temperature, pH, and NaCl was obtained by SAS's general linear analysis. The predicted growth rates of the S. aureus were generally decreased by basic (pH 9-10) or acidic (pH 5-6) conditions and higher NaCl concentrations. The response surface model was identified as an appropriate secondary model for growth rates on the basis of correlation coefficient (r=0.9703), determination coefficient ($r^2=0.9415$), mean square error (MSE=0.0185), bias factor ($B_f=1.0216$), and accuracy factor ($A_f=1.2583$). Therefore, the developed secondary model proved reliable for predictions of the combined effect of temperature, NaCl, and pH on growth rates for S. aureus in TSB medium.

Export Performance and Stock Return: A Case of Fishery Firms Listing in Vietnam Stock Markets

  • VO, Quy Thi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2019
  • The research aims to study the relationship between export performance and stock return of Vietnamese fishery companies. To conduct this study, quarterly data was collected for period from 2010-2018 of 13 fishery companies listing in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Ha Noi Stock Exchange (HNX). The export performance was measured by export intensity, export growth and export market coverage. In addition, interest rate, exchange rate, GDP, firm size, profitability, and financial leverage were considered as the control variables in the research model. Panel data analysis with Generalized Least Squares model was employed to estimate the predictive regression. The findings indicated that export intensity and export growth have a significant and positive relationship with stock returns. However, export market coverage has not a significant relationship with stock return at the 0.05 level. Profitability, financial leverage, and exchange rate have a positive relationship, while interest rate and GDP have no relation to stock return at the 0.05 significance level. The findings imply that investors should consider the export intensity instead of export growth and export market coverage as selecting stock of fishery exports firms to invest; managers should increase export intensity to increase company's stock price or firm market value.