• 제목/요약/키워드: Predictive ability

검색결과 303건 처리시간 0.028초

신호등(信號燈) 연동화보정계수(連動化補正係數) 산출(算出) 모형(模型)의 개발(開發) - 이론적(理論的) 고찰(考察)을 중심(中心)으로 - (An Approach to Calibrating a Progression Adjustment Factorat Signalized Intersections - Toward Theory of Background -)

  • 이용재;최우혁
    • 대한토목학회논문집
    • /
    • 제14권3호
    • /
    • pp.379-390
    • /
    • 1994
  • 기존(旣存)의 지체모형(遲滯模型)은 지체(遲滯)의 분석(分析)을 위하여 무작위도착(無作爲到着)(Random Arrival)을 가정(假定)하고 있으므로 가로망상(街路網上)에서 군(群)의 형태를 이루는 교통류(交通流)에 대한 실질지체(實質遲滯)를 정확히 분석(分析)하지 못한다. 이러한 단점(短點)을 보완(補完)하기 위하여 미국(美國) 도로용량편람(道路容量便覽)(HCM)에서는 연동화보정계수(連動化補正係數)(PAF)를 사용하여 보다 정확한 지체(遲滯)의 분석을 시도(試圖)하고 있다. 그러나 미국(美國)의 도로용량편람(道路容量便覽)에서 제시(提示)하고 있는 연동화보정계수(連動化補正係數)는 차량군(車輛群)의 도착형태(到着形態), 차량군비(車輛群比) 등에서 많은 문제점(問題點)을 내포(內包)하고 있다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)는 이러한 문제점(問題點)에 대하여 미국(美國) NCHRP 연구결과(硏究結果)를 참고(參考)로 하여 우리나라 실정(實情)에 적용(適用)할 수 있는 교차점(交叉點) 지체모형(遲滯模型)과 연동화(連動化) 분석모형(分析模型)을 제안(提案)하고 기존(旣存)에 제시(提示)된 모형(模型)의 결과(結果)와 비교(比較)함으로서 각 모형(模型)들간의 차이점(差異點)과 예측력(豫測力)을 이론적(理論的)으로 검토(檢討)하여 본다.

  • PDF

Diagnostic Aspects of Fine Needle Aspiration for Lung Lesions: Series of 245 Cases

  • Kravtsov, Vladimir;Sukmanov, Inna;Yaffe, Dani;Shitrit, David;Gottfried, Maya;Cioca, Andreea;Kidron, Debora
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • 제15권22호
    • /
    • pp.9865-9869
    • /
    • 2014
  • Background: Transthoracic fine needle aspiration (FNA) is one of several methods for establishing tissue diagnosis of lung lesions. Other tissue or cell sources for diagnosis include sputum, endobronchial biopsy, washing and brushing, endobronchial FNA, transthoracic core needle biopsy, biopsy from thoracoscopy or thoracotomy. The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity and specificity of FNA and other diagnostic tests in diagnosing lung lesions. Materials and Methods: The population included all patients undergoing FNA for lung lesions at Meir Medical Center from 2006 through 2010. Information regarding additional tissue tests was derived from the electronic archives of the Department of Pathology, patient records and files from the Department of Oncology. Sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for each test. Results: FNA was carried out in 245 patients. Malignant tumors were diagnosed in 190 cases (78%). They included adenocarcinoma (43%), squamous cell carcinoma (15%), non-small cell carcinoma, not otherwise specified (19%), neurondocrine tumors (7%), metastases (9%) and lymphoma (3%). The specificity of FNA for lung neoplasms was 100%; sensitivity and diagnostic accuracy were 87%. Conclusions: FNA is the most sensitive procedure for establishing tissue diagnoses of lung cancer. Combination with core needle biopsy increases the sensitivity. Factors related to the lesion (nature, degenerative changes, location) and to performance of all stages of test affect the ability to establish a diagnosis.

Risk Awareness on Uterine Cancer among Australian Women

  • George, Mathew;Asab, Nihad Abu;Varughese, Elizabeth;Irwin, Matthew;Oldmeadow, Christopher;Hollebone, Keith;Apen, Kenneth;Renner, Stefan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • 제15권23호
    • /
    • pp.10251-10254
    • /
    • 2015
  • Uterine cancer is the most common invasive gynaecological cancer in Australia. Early detection is a key predictive factor achieved by increasing public awareness and participation in screening. This observational study measures awareness of gynaecological malignancies, particularly uterine, among women in two rural areas of New South Wales, Australia. Patients presenting to gynaecology clinics in January to March 2014 were invited to complete a structured questionnaire. Women with a history of cancer and incomplete questionnaires were excluded. Of the 382 patients invited to participate, 329 (86%) responded with complete feedback. Most respondents were younger than than 50 years (66%) and married with at least 2 children (74%). The majority (94%) of participants had no awareness of uterine cancer and many (46%) were unable to identify common risk factors including obesity, diabetes and hypertension. The ability to identify risk factors was correlated to age, marital status and obesity. The study identifies poor awareness on uterine malignancies in two typical areas of rural Australia. Although external validity is limited by sociological factors, poor awareness of uterine cancer among rural patients in this study represents a valid public health concern. It is imperative to improve awareness of uterine cancer and available screening programs to facilitate early detection and cure.

Modified Toluidine Blue: an Alternative Stain for Helicobacter pylori Detection in Routine Diagnostic Use and Post-eradication Confirmation for Gastric Cancer Prevention

  • Sakonlaya, Dussadee;Apisarnthanarak, Anucha;Yamada, Nobutaka;Tomtitchong, Prakitpunthu
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • 제15권16호
    • /
    • pp.6983-6987
    • /
    • 2014
  • Background: Modified toluidine blue staining (MTBs) is a simple, inexpensive and time saving method to detect H. pylori in gastric biopsy specimens. As a metachromatic stain, it simultaneously highlights intestinal metaplasia, a gastric cancer precancerous lesion. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability of MTBs compared with hematoxylin-eosin (H&E) for H. pylori detection using immunoperoxidase staining as the gold standard. This technique would be beneficial for a routine diagnosis and confirmation of H. pylori eradication in developing countries where endoscopic-based approaches are dominant. Materials and Methods: Esophagogastroduodenoscopy with triple site gastric biopsies was undertaken in 207 dyspeptic patients at Thammasat University Hospital, Thailand between 1997 and 1999. H&E, MTBs and immunoperoxidase staining were applied to each specimen. The presence or absence of H. pylori with each stain was interpreted separately and the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of H&E and MTBs were calculated. Results: A total of 282 specimens from 207 patients were evaluated. Using immunoperoxidase staining, organisms were positive in 117 specimens (41%). MTBs proved almost equally sensitive as immunoperoxidase (99%) and significantly more sensitive than H&E (85%). It has comparable specificity (96% vs 96%), PPV (95% vs 94%), and NPV (99% vs 90%) to H&E, using immunoperoxidase staining as gold standard. MTBs compared with immunoperoxidase staining, is cheaper (2 USD vs 12 USD) and faster (20 min vs 16 hrs) compared to immunoperoxidase staining. Conclusions: MTBs is effective, economical and easy to use in daily practice for the detection of H. pylori in gastric biopsy specimens. In addition to saving time in evaluating H. pylori associated gastritis, with a high sensitivity and ability to demonstrate intestinal metaplasia, the technique may have a role in confirmation of H. pylori eradication for gastric cancer prevention in a developing country setting.

FNN 및 PNN에 기초한 FPNN의 합성 다층 추론 구조와 알고리즘 (The Hybrid Multi-layer Inference Architectures and Algorithms of FPNN Based on FNN and PNN)

  • 박병준;오성권;김현기
    • 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
    • /
    • 제49권7호
    • /
    • pp.378-388
    • /
    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks(FPNN) based on Polynomial Neural Networks(PNN) and Fuzzy Neural Networks(FNN) for model identification of complex and nonlinear systems. The proposed FPNN is generated from the mutually combined structure of both FNN and PNN. The one and the other are considered as the premise part and consequence part of FPNN structure respectively. As the consequence part of FPNN, PNN is based on Group Method of Data Handling(GMDH) method and its structure is similar to Neural Networks. But the structure of PNN is not fixed like in conventional Neural Networks and self-organizing networks that can be generated. FPNN is available effectively for multi-input variables and high-order polynomial according to the combination of FNN with PNN. Accordingly it is possible to consider the nonlinearity characteristics of process and to get better output performance with superb predictive ability. As the premise part of FPNN, FNN uses both the simplified fuzzy inference as fuzzy inference method and error back-propagation algorithm as learning rule. The parameters such as parameters of membership functions, learning rates and momentum coefficients are adjusted using genetic algorithms. And we use two kinds of FNN structure according to the division method of fuzzy space of input variables. One is basic FNN structure and uses fuzzy input space divided by each separated input variable, the other is modified FNN structure and uses fuzzy input space divided by mutually combined input variables. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, we use the nonlinear function and traffic route choice process. The results show that the proposed FPNN can produce the model with higher accuracy and more robustness than any other method presented previously. And also performance index related to the approximation and prediction capabilities of model is evaluated and discussed.

  • PDF

Shrinkage Structure of Ridge Partial Least Squares Regression

  • Kim, Jong-Duk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • 제18권2호
    • /
    • pp.327-344
    • /
    • 2007
  • 다중공선성의 데이터에 사용되는 대표적인 편향회귀방법은 능형회귀(RR), 주성분회귀(PCR), 부분최소제곱회귀(PLS) 등이다. 이 회귀방법들은 계수베거 추정량의 놈(norm)이 모두 보통 최소제곱회귀(OLS)의 추정량의 놈보다 작아진다는 의미에서 축소회귀라 부른다. 새로운 회귀방법으로 RR과 PCR을 결합한 능형주성분회귀(RPCR)가 있고 RR과 PLS를 결합한 능형부분최소제곱회귀(RPLS)가 있으며 이들도 또한 축소회귀이다. 이들 추정량은 X'X의 고유벡터들의 선형결합으로 나타낼 수 있고 따라서 각 고유방향에서 OLS에 비해 얼마나 축소되는지를 연구할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 먼저 이들 추정량을 일반적인 축소인자의 식으로 나타내고 이를 이용하여 MSE의 일반식을 구하였으며 PLS 추정량의 MSE 식도 구하였다. 그리고 RPLS의 축소인자 식을 두 가지 다른 형태로 유도하였다. RPLS의 경우도 이 축소인자 식을 MSE의 일반식에 대입하면 MSE 식이 바로 얻어진다. 그러나 PLS나 RPLS의 축소인자는 y의 복잡한 비선형이 되어 결정적이 아니므로 이들 추정량의 MSE는 근사적인 식이라 할 수 있다. 따라서 PLS나 RPLS를 평가하기 위해 이 MSE를 사용하는 것은 제한적이며, 경험적인 방법으로 이들 회귀의 수행성을 평가하는 것이 필요하다. 다중공선성의 대표적인 데이터인 근적외선 분광 데이터를 이용하여 이 유도된 회귀의 축소인자 값이 인자수에 따라 어떻게 변화하는지와 전체적인 축소 비율도 살펴보았다. 이들의 축소 형태를 잘 이해하면 회귀방법들의 예측력과 안정성을 파악하는데 많은 도움이 되리라 판단된다.

  • PDF

캐스케이드-상관 학습 알고리즘의 패밀리 (Family of Cascade-correlation Learning Algorithm)

  • 최명복;이상운
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
    • /
    • 제15권1호
    • /
    • pp.87-91
    • /
    • 2005
  • Fahlman과 Lebiere의 캐스케이드-상관 (CC) 학습 알고리즘은 신경망의 구성 알고리즘에서 가장 널리 사용되는 것 중의 하나이며, 망에서 은닉 뉴런을 캐스케이드 형태로 취함으로서 매우 강력한 비선형을 표현할 수 있다. 비록 이 멱승이 유용할지 몰라도 대체로 문제를 푸는데는 강력한 비선형성이 요구되지 않으며 단점이 될 수도 있다. CC 알고리즘의 캐스케이드 구조 및 출력 뉴런의 가중치 훈련에 대한 변형된 형태인 3개 모델이 제안되고 경험적으로 비교되었다. 실험결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다: (1) 패턴분류에 있어서, 새로 추가되는 은닉 뉴런과 출력층간 연결강도만 훈련시키는 모델이 가장 좋은 예측력을 나타내었다; (2) 함수근사 문제에 있어서는 입력-출력 연결강도를 제거하고 시그모이드-선형 작동함수를 사용하는 모델이 CasCor 알고리즘보다 좋은 결과를 나타내었다.

LNG 펌프 고장 진단 시스템 개발 (Development of Diagnosis System for LNG Pump)

  • 홍성호;이용원;황원걸;기창두;김영배
    • 한국가스학회지
    • /
    • 제2권3호
    • /
    • pp.88-95
    • /
    • 1998
  • 회전기계의 진동해석은 기계의 이상을 미리 판정하여 적절한 유지 보수를 수행하기 위한 지표로 팔용이 가능하다 현재 평택기지에 설치된 고장진단시스템은 LNG펌프의 진동수치가 위험수준에 도달시 기계적 결함부위 진단을 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 Windows NT환경에서 DSP보드를 사용한 자동진단시스템 개발에 대한 것이다. 펌프의 상태진단을 위해 2개의 가속도센서로부터의 속도신호를 해석하고 펌프의 상태에 대한 다양한 그래프를 보여주며 특정 진동값을 일정시간 간격마다 저장하여 펌프의 결함 발생시 운전자가 컴퓨터 모니터에서 전문가 시스템을 활용하여 자동으로 진단하고 경향을 감시함으로써 펌프의 상태를 점검할 수 있다.

  • PDF

An evaluation of empirical regression models for predicting temporal variations in soil respiration in a cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest

  • Lee, Na-Yeon
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • 제33권2호
    • /
    • pp.165-173
    • /
    • 2010
  • Soil respiration ($R_S$) is a critical component of the annual carbon balance of forests, but few studies thus far have attempted to evaluate empirical regression models in $R_S$. The principal objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationship between $R_S$ rates and soil temperature (ST) and soil water content (SWC) in soil from a cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest, and to evaluate empirical regression models for the prediction of $R_S$ using ST and SWC. We have been measuring $R_S$, using an open-flow gas-exchange system with an infrared gas analyzer during the snowfree season from 1999 to 2001 at the Takayama Forest, Japan. To evaluate the empirical regression models used for the prediction of $R_S$, we compared a simple exponential regression (flux = $ae^{bt}$Eq. [1]) and two polynomial multiple-regression models (flux = $ae^{bt}{\times}({\theta}{\nu}-c){\times}(d-{\theta}{\nu})^f:$ Eq. [2] and flux = $ae^{bt}{\times}(1-(1-({\theta}{\nu}/c))^2)$: Eq. [3]) that included two variables (ST: t and SWC: ${\theta}{\nu}$) and that utilized hourly data for $R_S$. In general, daily mean $R_S$ rates were positively well-correlated with ST, but no significant correlations were observed with any significant frequency between the ST and $R_S$ rates on periods of a day based on the hourly $R_S$ data. Eq. (2) has many more site-specific parameters than Eq. (3) and resulted in some significant underestimation. The empirical regression, Eq. (3) was best explained by temporal variations, as it provided a more unbiased fit to the data compared to Eq. (2). The Eq. (3) (ST $\times$ SWC function) also increased the predictive ability as compared to Eq. (1) (only ST exponential function), increasing the $R^2$ from 0.71 to 0.78.

Recovery and Return to Work After a Pelvic Fracture

  • Papasotiriou, Antonios N.;Prevezas, Nikolaos;Krikonis, Konstantinos;Alexopoulos, Evangelos C.
    • Safety and Health at Work
    • /
    • 제8권2호
    • /
    • pp.162-168
    • /
    • 2017
  • Background: Pelvic ring fractures (PRFs) may influence the daily activities and quality of life of the injured. The aim of this retrospective study was to explore the functional outcomes and factors related to return to work (RTW) after PRF. Methods: During the years 2003-2012, 282 injured individuals aged 20-55 years on the date of the accident, were hospitalized and treated for PRFs in a large tertiary hospital in Athens, Greece. One hundred and three patients were traced and contacted; 77 who were on paid employment prior to the accident gave their informed consent to participate in the survey, which was conducted in early 2015 through telephone interviews. The questionnaire included variables related to injury, treatment and activities, and the Majeed pelvic score. Univariate and multiple regression analyses were used for statistical assessment. Results: Almost half of the injured (46.7%) fully RTW, and earning losses were reported to be 35% after PRF. The univariate analysis confirmed that RTW was significantly related to accident site (labor or not), the magnitude of the accident's force, concomitant injuries, duration of hospitalization, time to RTW, engagement to the same sport, Majeed score, and complications such as limp and pain as well as urologic and sexual complaints (p < 0.05 for all). On multiple logistic regression analysis, the accident sustained out of work (odds ratio: 6.472, 95% confidence interval: 1.626-25.769) and Majeed score (odds ratio: 3.749, 95% confidence interval: 2.092-6.720) were identified as independent predictive factors of full RTW. Conclusion: PRFs have severe socioeconomic consequences. Possible predictors of RTW should be taken into account for health management and policies.