• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive Analysis

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Development of an Eating Habit Checklist for Screening Elementary School Children at Risk of Inadequate Micronutrient Intake (초등학생의 미량영양소 섭취부족 위험 진단을 위한 간이 식습관평가표 개발)

  • Yon, Mi-Yong;Hyun, Tai-Sun
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of the study was to develop an eating habit checklist for screening elementary school children at risk of inadequate micronutrient intake. Eating habits, food intake, and anthropometric data were collected from 142 children (80 boys and 62 girls) in the $4^{th}$ to $6^{th}$ grades of elementary schools. Percentage of Recommended Intakes (RI) and Mean Adequacy Ratio (MAR) of six micronutrients; vitamin A, riboflavin, vitamin C, calcium, iron, zinc, and the number of nutrients the children consumed below EAR among the six nutrients were used as indices to detect the risk of inadequate micronutrient intake. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between eating habit scores and inadequate micronutrient intake indices in order to select questions included in the checklist. Meal frequency, enough time for breakfast, regularity of dinner, appetite, eating frequencies of Kimchi, milk, fruits and beans showed significant correlations with indices of inadequate micronutrient intake. Stepwise regression analysis was performed to give each item a different weight by prediction strength. To determine the cut-off point of the test score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were calculated. The 8-item checklist with test results from 0 to 12 points was developed, and those with equal or higher than 6 points were diagnosed as high-risk group of inadequate micronutrient intake, and those with 4 or 5 points were diagnosed as moderate-risk group. Among our subjects 14.1% was diagnosed as high-risk group, and 30.3% as moderate-risk group. The proportions of the subjects who consumed below EAR of all micronutrients but vitamin C were highest in the high-risk group, and there were significant differences in the proportions of the subjects with intake below EAR of all micronutrients except vitamin B6 among the three groups. This checklist will provide a useful screening tool to identify children at risk of inadequate micronutrient intake.

Clinical Analysis of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia in Chest Trauma (흉부외상에 의한 인공호흡기치료 환자에서 발생한 폐렴의 임상분석)

  • Yun, Ju-Sik;Oh, Bong-Suk;Ryu, Sang-Woo;Jang, Won-Chae
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.736-741
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    • 2008
  • Background: Pneumonia continues to be the most common major infection in trauma patients. Despite the advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for pneumonia, it remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The aim of this retrospective study is to identify the risk factors and clinical features of ventilator-associated pneumonia among chest trauma patients. Material and Method: The study population consisted of 78 mechanically ventilated patients admitted to the ICU of Chonnam National University Hospital between January, 2001, and December, 2006. The patients were divided into two groups: those with pneumonia (Group I) and without pneumonia (Group II). Clinical predictors of the occurrence and mortality for ventilator associated pneumonia were analyzed. Result: There were 57 men and 21 women, with a mean age of $48.3{\pm}19.9$ years. Almost half of the patients, 48.7% (38 of 78), had pneumonia. The mortality rate was 21.0% (8 of 38) in Group I and 2.5% (1 of 40) in Group II. The predictors of ventilator-associated pneumonia were the duration of mechanical ventilation (17.4 days vs 6.5 days, p<0.001), the mean stay in the ICU (21.7 days vs 9.7 days, p<0.001), the use of inotropics due to hemodynamic instability (63.1% vs 25.0%, p=0.001), and the serum level of CRP ($11.3{\pm}7.8$ vs $6.4{\pm}7.3$, p=0.006). Conclusion: Posttraumatic ventilator-associated pneumonia was significantly related with the duration of mechanical ventilation, the mean stay in ICU, and the use of inotropics due to hemodynamic instability. The serum level of CRP at admission was higher in the pneumonia group. Morbidity and mortality can be reduced by early identification of predictive factors for developing pneumonia in chest trauma patients.

An Empirical Study on Korean Stock Market using Firm Characteristic Model (한국주식시장에서 기업특성모형 적용에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Soo-Kyung;Park, Jong-Hae;Byun, Young-Tae;Kim, Tae-Hyuk
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2010
  • This study attempted to empirically test the determinants of stock returns in Korean stock market applying multi-factor model proposed by Haugen and Baker(1996). Regression models were developed using 16 variables related to liquidity, risk, historical price, price level, and profitability as independent variables and 690 stock monthly returns as dependent variable. For the statistical analysis, the data were collected from the Kis Value database and the tests of forecasting power in this study minimized various possible bias discussed in the literature as possible. The statistical results indicated that: 1) Liquidity, one-month excess return, three-month excess return, PER, ROE, and volatility of total return affect stock returns simultaneously. 2) Liquidity, one-month excess return, three-month excess return, six-month excess return, PSR, PBR, ROE, and EPS have an antecedent influence on stock returns. Meanwhile, realized returns of decile portfolios increase in proportion to predicted returns. This results supported previous study by Haugen and Baker(1996) and indicated that firm-characteristic model can better predict stock returns than CAPM. 3) The firm-characteristic model has better predictive power than Fama-French three-factor model, which indicates that a portfolio constructed based on this model can achieve excess return. This study found that expected return factor models are accurate, which is consistent with other countries' results. There exists a surprising degree of commonality in the factors that are most important in determining the expected returns among different stocks.

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Antithrombin-III as an early prognostic factor in children with acute lung injury (급성 폐손상 소아 환자에서 조기 예후 인자로서의 antithrombin-III)

  • Lee, Young Seung;Kim, Seonguk;Kang, Eun Kyeong;Park, June Dong
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.443-448
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : To evaluate the potential prognostic value of the antithrombin-III (AT-III) level in the children with acute lung injury (ALI), we analyzed several early predictive factors of death including AT-III level at the onset of ALI and compared the relative risk of them for mortality. Methods : Over a 18-month period, a total of 198 children were admitted to our pediatric intensive care unit and 21 mechanically ventilated patients met ALI criteria, as defined by American-European consensus conference, i.e., bilateral pulmonary infiltrates and $PaO_2/FiO_2$ lower than 300 without left atrial hypertension. Demographic variables, hemodynamic and respiratory parameters, underlying diseases, as well as Pediatric Risk of Mortality-III (PRISM-III) scores and Lung Injury Score (LIS) at admission were collected. AT-III levels were measured within 3 hours after admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors and entered into a multiple logistic regression analysis to evaluate their independent prognostic roles. Results : The overall mortality rate was 38.1% (8/21). Non-survivors showed lower age, lower lung compliance, higher PEEP, higher oxygenation index (OI), lower arterial pH, lower $PaO_2/FiO_2$, higher PRISM-III score and LIS, and lower AT-III level. PRISM-III score, LIS, OI and decreased AT-III level (less than 70%) were independently associated with a risk of death and the odds ratio of decreased AT-III level for mortality is 2.75 (95% confidence interval; 1.28-4.12) Conclusion : These results suggest that the decreased level of AT-III is an important prognostic factor in children with ALI and the replacement of AT-III may be considered as an early therapeutic trial.

Predictability of Impending Events for Death within 48 Hours in Terminal Cancer Patients (말기암환자에서 임박사건 간 48시간 임종예측도 비교)

  • Hwang, In-Cheol;Choi, Chung-Hyun;Kim, Kyoung-Kon;Lee, Kyoung-Shik;Suh, Heuy-Sun;Shim, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.28-33
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Recognition of impending death is crucial not only for efficient communication with the caregiver of the patient, but also determination of the time to refer to a separate room. Current studies simply list the events 'that have already occurred' around 48 hours before the death. This study is to analyze the predictability of each event by comparing the time length from 'change' to death. Methods: Subjects included 160 patients who passed away in a palliative care unit in Incheon. The analysis was limited to 80 patients who had medical records for the last week of their lives. We determined 9 symptoms and 8 signs, and established the standard of 'significant change' of each event before death. Results: The most common symptom was increased sleeping (53.8%) and the most common sign was decreased blood pressure (BP) (87.5%). The mean time to death within 48 hours was 46.8% in the case of resting dyspnea, 13.6% in the ease of low oxygen saturation, and 36.9% in the case of decreased BP. The symptom(s) which had the highest positive predictive value (PV) for death within 48 hours was shown to be resting dyspnea (83%), whereas the combination of resting dyspnea and confusion/delirium (65%) had the highest negative PV. As for the most common signs before death within 48 hours, the positive PVs were more than 95%, and the negative PV was the highest when decreased BP and low oxygen saturation were combined. The difference in survival patterns between symptoms and signs was significant. Conclusion: The most reliable symptoms to predict the impending death are resting dyspnea and confusion/delirium, and decline of oxygen saturation and BP are the reliable signs to predict the event.

The Usefulness According to the Incubation Time of PTH as Prediction Index of Hypocalcemia (저칼슘혈증 예측지표로서 부갑상선 호르몬 검사반응시간에 따른 유용성)

  • Au, Doo-Hee;Kim, Ji-Young;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.138-142
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: PTH (parathyroid hormone) level is a useful index for prediction of hypocalcemia after thyroidectomy. The fast results are required for an early diagnosis of hypocalcemia. In this study, we evaluated the PTH change according to incubation time, and investigated the usefulness of hypocalcemia diagnosis of PTH results in early incubation time. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 131 patients who had taken the PTH test from July to August in 2009. All experiments were used IRMA method. PTH value were evaluated with the correlation between precision (10 times repeat) and recovery rate and at 0.5, 3, 6 and $18{\pm}2$ (below overnight) hours following incubation time. Data analysis was investigated with relationship of the sensitivity, specificity, PPV (positive predictive value) and accuracy. Results: The correlation was time-dependent with levels reaching $R^2$=0.987 at 0.5 hours, $R^2$=0.993 at 3 hours and $R^2$=0.996 at 6 hours compare to overnight levels. The precision (%CV${\pm}$SD) were $15.92{\pm}15.54$ at 0.5 hours, $6.91{\pm}7.38$ at 3 hours, $4.30{\pm}4.69$ at 6 hours and $4.59{\pm}2.59$ at overnight. The recovery rate (%Mean${\pm}$SD) were $96.8{\pm}5.44$ at 0.5 hours, $102.6{\pm}4.35$ at 3 hours, $100.7{\pm}2.56$ at 6 hours and $102.2{\pm}5.98$ at overnight. When 15 pg/ml of overnight density was set up as criteria, we measured the sensitivity, specificity and PPV, accuracy at 0.5, 3, 6 hours. The sensitivity was shown to 97.5% at all times. The specificity was 96.0% at 0.5 hours, 100% at 3 hours and 92.3% at 6 hours for control, respectively. The PPV was 86.6% at 0.5 hours, 100% at 3 hours and 92.8% at 6 hours. The accuracy was shown to 84.7% at 0.5 hours, 97.5% at 3 hours and 90.6% at 6 hours. These data were accompanied by a corresponding PTH value of overnight incubation time, which significantly correlated with early time results. Conclusion: The values of PTH at 3 hours has favorable the rate of concordance of 94.1% and may be useful for prediction of hypocalcemia, and it responses to overnight incubation PTH values. Therefore, This method may be an attractive alternative to proper treatment to stop symptom revelation by giving a calcium agent to the patient.

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A Validation Study for the Practical Use of Screening Scale for Potential Drug-use Adolescents(SPDA) (청소년 약물사용 잠재군 선별척도(SPDA) 활용을 위한 타당화 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Young;Kim, Young-Mi;Im, Hyuk;Park, Mi-Jin;Park, Sun-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.305-335
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    • 2005
  • This paper is a result from validation study for SPDA(A Screening Scale For Potential Drug-use Adolescents) created in 2003 and newly developed during 2004. SPDA aims to screen adolescents in their early stage of drug-use and to help practitioners make a preventive approach for the adolescents. 4307 junior and senior high school students were selected as primary research subjects by stratified and quota sampling methods. 305 adolescents on probation were also selected as a comparison group and asked to answer the same questionnaire. Reliability for SPDA recorded 0.914, which proved to be better than previous year's (0.898). Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses to test construct validity proved that SPDA could be divided into 7 factors and that each factor structure of SPDA could be a proper measurement model with high level of fitness and factor loadings. Discriminant analysis to test predictive validity confirmed that SPDA could classify the adolescents excellently by the frequency of drug-use, with hit ratio of 86.6 percent(78.8% and 87.4% for junior and senior high school students respectively). For concurrent validity test, Hare Home Self-Esteem Scale, Hare School Self-Esteem, Zuckerman-Kuhlman Sensation-seeking Scale were employed to find correlation with SPDA and all the three scales had significant Pearson correlation coefficients with SPDA. Known-groups validity test indicated that SPDA had an adequate power to classify out adolescents on probation from those in schooling, with a hit ratio of 71.8 percent. Cut-off point to detect adolescents with high risk of substance use was 77, which indicated approximately T score, 55 (0.5 SD), satisfying sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency criteria.

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Assessment of Two Clinical Prediction Models for a Pulmonary Embolism in Patients with a Suspected Pulmonary Embolism (폐색전증이 의심된 환자에서 두 가지 폐색전증 진단 예측 모형의 평가)

  • Park, Jae Seok;Choi, Won-Il;Min, Bo Ram;Park, Jie Hae;Chae, Jin Nyeong;Jeon, Young June;Yu, Ho Jung;Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Gyoung-Ju;Ko, Sung-Min
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.266-271
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    • 2008
  • Background: Estimation of the probability of a patient having an acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for patients with a suspected PE are well established in North America and Europe. However, an assessment of the prediction rules for a PE has not been clearly defined in Korea. The aim of this study is to assess the prediction rules for patients with a suspected PE in Korea. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of 210 inpatients or patients that visited the emergency ward with a suspected PE where computed tomography pulmonary angiography was performed at a single institution between January 2005 and March 2007. Simplified Wells rules and revised Geneva rules were used to estimate the clinical probability of a PE based on information from medical records. Results: Of the 210 patients with a suspected PE, 49 (19.5%) patients had an actual diagnosis of a PE. The proportion of patients classified by Wells rules and the Geneva rules had a low probability of 1% and 21%, an intermediate probability of 62.5% and 76.2%, and a high probability of 33.8% and 2.8%, respectively. The prevalence of PE patients with a low, intermediate and high probability categorized by the Wells rules and Geneva rules was 100% and 4.5% in the low range, 18.2% and 22.5% in the intermediate range, and 19.7% and 50% in the high range, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the revised Geneva rules had a higher accuracy than the Wells rules in terms of detecting PE. Concordance between the two prediction rules was poor ($\kappa$ coefficient=0.06). Conclusion: In the present study, the two prediction rules had a different predictive accuracy for pulmonary embolisms. Applying the revised Geneva rules to inpatients and emergency ward patients suspected of having PE may allow a more effective diagnostic process than the use of the Wells rules.

Assessment of Carotid Geometry by Using the Contrast-enhanced MR Angiography (조영증강 MR 혈관 조영술을 이용한 경동맥 기하학의 평가)

  • Lee, Chung-Min;Ryu, Chang-Woo;Kim, Keun-Woo
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : To evaluate the geometry of carotid artery by assessing the images of contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) and interrelationships between the geometry of carotid artery and clinical factors. Materials and Methods : 216 consecutive patients who performed supraaortic CE-MRA with fast spoiled gradient-echo imaging were included. Their medical records were reviewed for variable information including risk factors predictive of generalized atherosclerotic disease (age, hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidema, and smoking), sex, body weight, height, and body mass index (BMI). We reviewed the CE-MRA with carotid origin (3 types), carotid artery tortuosity, angle of internal carotid artery bifurcation, the type of aortic arch branching, and the presence of the coiling of carotid artery. Results : Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that significantly contributed clinical backgrounds for carotid origin were the age and the BMI. With an increase of age at 1, the probability that the type of carotid origin become from type 1 to type 2 was 0.9 times (p=0.004) in right carotid artery (RCA), 0.9 times (p = 0.031) in left carotid artery (LCA), 0.9 times that are likely to be type3 from type 2 (p<0.001) in RCA and 0.9 times in LCA (p=0.009). Increase in BMI at 1 increased odds of becoming type 2 as 1.1 times (p = 0.067) in RCA, 1.1 times (p=0.009) in LCA and increased chance of becoming type 3 as 1.2 times (p = 0.001) in RCA, 1.2 times (p=0.003) in LCA. Mean value of right and left carotid tortuosity were $240.9{\pm}69.0^{\circ}$and $154.4{\pm}55.0^{\circ}$, respectively. Conclusion : The BMI, age, sex and presence of HTN affects the geometry of carotid arteries, the site of origin and tortuosity of carotid artery specifically.

The Factors Influencing the Asthenopia of Emmetropia with Phoria (사위를 가진 정시안의 안정피로에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Kim, Jung-Hee;Lee, Dong-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2005
  • The aim of this study was to provide fundamental data for the factors influencing the asthenopia of emmetropia with phoria and alleviation of asthenopia. A total of 348 subjects, aged between 19 and 30 years old, who had no strabismus, an eye trouble or whole body disease, were examined using corrected visual acuity, corrected diopter, stereopsis and suppression tests from September of 2002 to September of 2004. We excluded 21 subjects for the following reasons: if they had an amblyopia affecting binocular vision or inaccurate data. After these exclusions, 327 subjects remained. We then individually measured the refractive error correction, pupillary distance, optical center distance, phoria, convergence, accommodation and the AC/A as well as the asthenopia during binocular vision using a questionnaire. After analysis of factors affecting asthenopia, we also examined the reductive effect of a prism on the asthenopia in subjects who had asthenopia. To determine the factors affecting asthenopia during binocular vision, statistic analyses were carried out using the Chi-square test and the multivariate Logistic regression model. The results of this study were as follow. For asthenopia during near binocular vision of emmetropia with phoria, in case of the lower the accommodation and convergence, a significantly higher rate of asthenopia was observed (p<0.001). When the AC/A is lower, the higher the rate of asthenopia was observed but not significantly and there was no association between phoria and asthenopia. When the multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine factors affecting binocular vision of emmetropia with phoria, in case of the lower accommodation and convergence, a significantly higher rate of asthenopia was observed. when the phoria is esophoria or higher exophoria, or when the AC/A is lower than normal, the higher the rate of asthenopia was observed but not significantly and there was no association between phoria. AC/A and asthenopia. Therefore accommodation and convergence could be predictive factors for asthenopia during near distance binocular vision. Prism was used among' subjects who had asthenopia during near distance binocular vision, the symptom of asthenopia was eased up to 74.2% in emmetropia with phoria.

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