• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction-Based

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환경영향평가에서 조류 종풍부도 변화에 미치는 요인 고찰 연구 (Study on the Factors Affecting the Richness Index of Bird Species in Environmental Impact Assessment)

  • 문현빈;김은섭;이동근
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.64-73
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    • 2024
  • 개발사업으로 인한 서식지 파괴의 심각성이 대두되면서 생물다양성을 보전하기 위해 환경영향평가(EIA)의 중요성은 커지고 있다. 경관스케일에서 개발 요인과 주변 환경요인에 따른 생물다양성 영향을 정량적으로 평가하기 위해 선행연구들이 진행되고 있으나, 개발사업을 기준으로 생물다양성 감소에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구는 선행연구를 통해 유효하다고 밝혀진 독립변수(사업 면적, 사업 유형, 고도, 생태·자연도, 녹지와의 이격거리, 보호구역과의 이격거리)들을 다중클래스 로지스틱 회귀분석, T-test, 사업 유형 검토분석을 통해 종풍부도 변화에 유의미한 영향을 미치는지를 검토하였다. 연구 결과, 토지 피복 단위에서 생물다양성에 영향을 끼치는 것으로 밝혀진 요인 중 사업 규모와 환경영향평가 시 종풍부도 값만이 p-value=0.05 이하의 값을 보였다. 그리고 사업 유형의 경우, 체육시설의 설치, 에너지 개발, 산업입지 및 산업단지의 조성에서 조류의 생물다양성 감소가 크게 변화하는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 통해 분석 규모에 따라 영향을 끼치는 변수에서의 차이가 발생할 수 있음을 확인하였기에, 환경영향평가에서 생물다양성 변화를 분석하기 위해서는 개발사업 단위에서의 지표 활용에 연구가 추가로 필요할 것이며, 타 생물종으로의 일반화를 위해 추가적인 연구가 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

Simulation analysis and evaluation of decontamination effect of different abrasive jet process parameters on radioactively contaminated metal

  • Lin Zhong;Jian Deng;Zhe-wen Zuo;Can-yu Huang;Bo Chen;Lin Lei;Ze-yong Lei;Jie-heng Lei;Mu Zhao;Yun-fei Hua
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권11호
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    • pp.3940-3955
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    • 2023
  • A new method of numerical simulating prediction and decontamination effect evaluation for abrasive jet decontamination to radioactively contaminated metal is proposed. Based on the Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) coupled simulation model, the motion patterns and distribution of abrasives can be predicted, and the decontamination effect can be evaluated by image processing and recognition technology. The impact of three key parameters (impact distance, inlet pressure, abrasive mass flow rate) on the decontamination effect is revealed. Moreover, here are experiments of reliability verification to decontamination effect and numerical simulation methods that has been conducted. The results show that: 60Co and other homogeneous solid solution radioactive pollutants can be removed by abrasive jet, and the average removal rate of Co exceeds 80%. It is reliable for the proposed numerical simulation and evaluation method because of the well goodness of fit between predicted value and actual values: The predicted values and actual values of the abrasive distribution diameter are Ф57 and Ф55; the total coverage rate is 26.42% and 23.50%; the average impact velocity is 81.73 m/s and 78.00 m/s. Further analysis shows that the impact distance has a significant impact on the distribution of abrasive particles on the target surface, the coverage rate of the core area increases at first, and then decreases with the increase of the impact distance of the nozzle, which reach a maximum of 14.44% at 300 mm. It is recommended to set the impact distance around 300 mm, because at this time the core area coverage of the abrasive is the largest and the impact velocity is stable at the highest speed of 81.94 m/s. The impact of the nozzle inlet pressure on the decontamination effect mainly affects the impact kinetic energy of the abrasive and has little impact on the distribution. The greater the inlet pressure, the greater the impact kinetic energy, and the stronger the decontamination ability of the abrasive. But in return, the energy consumption is higher, too. For the decontamination of radioactively contaminated metals, it is recommended to set the inlet pressure of the nozzle at around 0.6 MPa. Because most of the Co elements can be removed under this pressure. Increasing the mass and flow of abrasives appropriately can enhance the decontamination effectiveness. The total mass of abrasives per unit decontamination area is suggested to be 50 g because the core area coverage rate of the abrasive is relatively large under this condition; and the nozzle wear extent is acceptable.

도시공간적 요인을 고려한 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 체감더위 예측 모형 개발 (Development of a Prediction Model for Personal Thermal Sensation on Logistic Regression Considering Urban Spatial Factors)

  • 성욱제;박형민;임재연;서유진;손정민;민진규;엄정희
    • 한국지리정보학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.81-98
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    • 2024
  • 본 연구는 시민들이 직접 체감하는 더위인 체감더위를 열환경 단위로 설정하여 공간적 요인과의 상관관계를 분석하고 체감더위 예측 모형을 개발하였다. 체감더위를 수집하기 위해 리빙랩이라는 시민 참여형 연구방법론을 적용하여 시민들이 직접 체감더위를 기록하고 주변의 온도를 측정하도록 하였다. 수집한 체감더위 정보의 입력지점에 기반하여 주변 도시공간적 요소를 수집하여 통계 분석을 위한 데이터셋을 구축하였다. 구축한 데이터를 활용하여 로지스틱 회귀분석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과, 기온은 주변 공간환경에 영향을 받으며, 건물 높이, 녹지율, 도로율과 음의 상관관계를 가지고, 기온과 천공률과 양의 상관관계를 가진다고 분석되었다. 또한 도로율, 천공률, 녹지율 순으로 체감더위에 강한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 기후변화 대응을 위한 국지적인 열환경 대책을 마련하기 위한 열환경 평가의 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Radiologic assessment of the optimal point for tube thoracostomy using the sternum as a landmark: a computed tomography-based analysis

  • Jaeik Jang;Jae-Hyug Woo;Mina Lee;Woo Sung Choi;Yong Su Lim;Jin Seong Cho;Jae Ho Jang;Jea Yeon Choi;Sung Youl Hyun
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed at developing a novel tube thoracostomy technique using the sternum, a fixed anatomical structure, as an indicator to reduce the possibility of incorrect chest tube positioning and complications in patients with chest trauma. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed the data of 184 patients with chest trauma who were aged ≥18 years, visited a single regional trauma center in Korea between April and June 2022, and underwent chest computed tomography (CT) with their arms down. The conventional gold standard, 5th intercostal space (ICS) method, was compared to the lower 1/2, 1/3, and 1/4 of the sternum method by analyzing CT images. Results: When virtual tube thoracostomy routes were drawn at the mid-axillary line at the 5th ICS level, 150 patients (81.5%) on the right side and 179 patients (97.3%) on the left did not pass the diaphragm. However, at the lower 1/2 of the sternum level, 171 patients (92.9%, P<0.001) on the right and 182 patients (98.9%, P= 0.250) on the left did not pass the diaphragm. At the 5th ICS level, 129 patients (70.1%) on the right and 156 patients (84.8%) on the left were located in the safety zone and did not pass the diaphragm. Alternatively, at the lower 1/2, 1/3, and 1/4 of the sternum level, 139 (75.5%, P=0.185), 49 (26.6%, P<0.001), and 10 (5.4%, P<0.001), respectively, on the right, and 146 (79.3%, P=0.041), 69 (37.5%, P<0.001), and 16 (8.7%, P<0.001) on the left were located in the safety zone and did not pass the diaphragm. Compared to the conventional 5th ICS method, the sternum 1/2 method had a safety zone prediction sensitivity of 90.0% to 90.7%, and 97.3% to 100% sensitivity for not passing the diaphragm. Conclusions: Using the sternum length as a tube thoracostomy indicator might be feasible.

시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 보령시 가뭄의 수문학적 위험도 평가 (Evaluation of hydrologic risk of drought in Boryeong according to climate change scenarios using scenario-neutral approach)

  • 김지영;한영만;서승범;김대하;김태웅
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제57권3호
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2024
  • 기후위기에 선제적으로 대비하기 위해서는 기후변화에 따른 영향을 예측 및 분석하고, 이를 바탕으로 기후위기 적응과 관련한 정책과 전략을 수립할 필요가 있다. 이를 위해 기후변화를 고려해야 하나, 기존 연구 방법인 시나리오 리드 접근법에서 연구자들은 기후변화 대표 시나리오를 선택하여 활용하기 때문에, 예측된 결과의 불확실성이 크고 신뢰도가 낮다. 이러한 연구 결과는 기후변화 관련된 수자원 정책 및 설계기준에 반영되는 데 한계가 있다. 따라서 기후변화로 인해 발생가능한 변화 범위를 고려하는 시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 보령시를 대상으로 총 343개의 기후스트레스 시계열을 생성한 뒤 이변량 가뭄빈도분석을 통해 재현기간을 산정하고 가뭄에 대한 수문학적 위험도를 산정하였다. 분석결과, SSP1-2.6 18개 및 SSP5-8.5에 18개에 대해 최대 재현기간의 가뭄이 20년 내에 발생할 수문학적 위험도는 0.15±0.025, 50년 내에 발생할 수문학적 위험도는 0.3125±0.0625 사이로 나타났다. 따라서 보령시에서는 해당 범위의 수문학적 위험도를 고려하여 가뭄 정책 및 대책 수립이 필요하다.

Development and Validation of a Simple Index Based on Non-Enhanced CT and Clinical Factors for Prediction of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

  • Yura Ahn;Sung-Cheol Yun;Seung Soo Lee;Jung Hee Son;Sora Jo;Jieun Byun;Yu Sub Sung;Ho Sung Kim;Eun Sil Yu
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.413-421
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    • 2020
  • Objective: A widely applicable, non-invasive screening method for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is needed. We aimed to develop and validate an index combining computed tomography (CT) and routine clinical data for screening for NAFLD in a large cohort of adults with pathologically proven NAFLD. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 2218 living liver donors who had undergone liver biopsy and CT within a span of 3 days. Donors were randomized 2:1 into development and test cohorts. CTL-S was measured by subtracting splenic attenuation from hepatic attenuation on non-enhanced CT. Multivariable logistic regression analysis of the development cohort was utilized to develop a clinical-CT index predicting pathologically proven NAFLD. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by analyzing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The cutoffs for the clinical-CT index were determined for 90% sensitivity and 90% specificity in the development cohort, and their diagnostic performance was evaluated in the test cohort. Results: The clinical-CT index included CTL-S, body mass index, and aspartate transaminase and triglyceride concentrations. In the test cohort, the clinical-CT index (AUC, 0.81) outperformed CTL-S (0.74; p < 0.001) and clinical indices (0.73-0.75; p < 0.001) in diagnosing NAFLD. A cutoff of ≥ 46 had a sensitivity of 89% and a specificity of 41%, whereas a cutoff of ≥ 56.5 had a sensitivity of 57% and a specificity of 89%. Conclusion: The clinical-CT index is more accurate than CTL-S and clinical indices alone for the diagnosis of NAFLD and may be clinically useful in screening for NAFLD.

수치해석과 계측데이터를 이용한 연약지반의 역해석 침하 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on Back Analysis Settlement Prediction of Soft Ground Using Numerical Analysis and Measurement Data)

  • 전상주;서혁;김대현
    • 한국지반신소재학회논문집
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2024
  • 연약지반의 성토나 구조물 축조할 때, 지반의 침하와 안전에 대한 관리가 중요하다. 하지만 실제 지반의 거동과 설계 계획과는 현저한 차이를 보일때가 많다. 본 연구에서는 연약지반 설계시 이론식에 의해 추정되는 설계침하량과 시공시 게측되는 계측침하량의 차이를 통한 침하량 예측을 통하여 그 결과를 비교,분석하고자 하였다. 집중공 18개소에 대한 침하량 분석결과, 역해석 침하량은 계측침하량과 유사한 결괏값을 확인하였으나, 설계침하량의 경우 계측침하량 대비 높은 침하량 값을 확인하였다. 설계침하량의 경우 계측값을 통해 도출된 역해석 침하량과 실내침하량 보다 1.2~1.4배 이상 높은 값을 보였다. RMSE 분석결과, 설계침하량의 경우 0.6212m, 역해석침하량의 경우 0.1697m로 확인되었다. 역해석침하량과 계측침하량의 차이가 설계침하량과 계측침하량의 차이보다 70%이상 낮은 결과를 보였으며, 이는 역해석침하량 값이 설계침하량보다 더 낮은 오차율을 보인다는 것을 확인할 수 있다.

Imaging Predictors of Survival in Patients with Single Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization

  • Chan Park;Jin Hyoung Kim;Pyeong Hwa Kim;So Yeon Kim;Dong Il Gwon;Hee Ho Chu;Minho Park;Joonho Hur;Jin Young Kim;Dong Joon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.213-224
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    • 2021
  • Objective: Clinical outcomes of patients who undergo transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not consistent, and may differ based on certain imaging findings. This retrospective study was aimed at determining the efficacy of pre-TACE CT or MR imaging findings in predicting survival outcomes in patients with small HCC upon being treated with TACE. Besides, the study proposed to build a risk prediction model for these patients. Materials and Methods: Altogether, 750 patients with functionally good hepatic reserve who received TACE as the first-line treatment for single small HCC between 2004 and 2014 were included in the study. These patients were randomly assigned into training (n = 525) and validation (n = 225) sets. Results: According to the results of a multivariable Cox analysis, three pre-TACE imaging findings (tumor margin, tumor location, enhancement pattern) and two clinical factors (age, serum albumin level) were selected and scored to create predictive models for overall, local tumor progression (LTP)-free, and progression-free survival in the training set. The median overall survival time in the validation set were 137.5 months, 76.1 months, and 44.0 months for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves of the predictive models for overall, LTP-free, and progression-free survival applied to the validation cohort showed acceptable areas under the curve values (0.734, 0.802, and 0.775 for overall survival; 0.738, 0.789, and 0.791 for LTP-free survival; and 0.671, 0.733, and 0.694 for progression-free survival at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively). Conclusion: Pre-TACE CT or MR imaging findings could predict survival outcomes in patients with small HCC upon treatment with TACE. Our predictive models including three imaging predictors could be helpful in prognostication, identification, and selection of suitable candidates for TACE in patients with single small HCC.

Prediction of Pulmonary Function in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Correlation with Quantitative CT Parameters

  • Hyun Jung Koo;Sang Min Lee;Joon Beom Seo;Sang Min Lee;Namkug Kim;Sang Young Oh;Jae Seung Lee;Yeon-Mok Oh
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.683-692
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    • 2019
  • Objective: We aimed to evaluate correlations between computed tomography (CT) parameters and pulmonary function test (PFT) parameters according to disease severity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and to determine whether CT parameters can be used to predict PFT indices. Materials and Methods: A total of 370 patients with COPD were grouped based on disease severity according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) I-IV criteria. Emphysema index (EI), air-trapping index, and airway parameters such as the square root of wall area of a hypothetical airway with an internal perimeter of 10 mm (Pi10) were measured using automatic segmentation software. Clinical characteristics including PFT results and quantitative CT parameters according to GOLD criteria were compared using ANOVA. The correlations between CT parameters and PFT indices, including the ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) and FEV1, were assessed. To evaluate whether CT parameters can be used to predict PFT indices, multiple linear regression analyses were performed for all patients, Group 1 (GOLD I and II), and Group 2 (GOLD III and IV). Results: Pulmonary function deteriorated with increase in disease severity according to the GOLD criteria (p < 0.001). Parenchymal attenuation parameters were significantly worse in patients with higher GOLD stages (P < 0.001), and Pi10 was highest for patients with GOLD III (4.41 ± 0.94 mm). Airway parameters were nonlinearly correlated with PFT results, and Pi10 demonstrated mild correlation with FEV1/FVC in patients with GOLD II and III (r = 0.16, p = 0.06 and r = 0.21, p = 0.04, respectively). Parenchymal attenuation parameters, airway parameters, EI, and Pi10 were identified as predictors of FEV1/FVC for the entire study sample and for Group 1 (R2 = 0.38 and 0.22, respectively; p < 0.001). However, only parenchymal attenuation parameter, EI, was identified as a predictor of FEV1/FVC for Group 2 (R2 = 0.37, p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained for FEV1. Conclusion: Airway and parenchymal attenuation parameters are independent predictors of pulmonary function in patients with mild COPD, whereas parenchymal attenuation parameters are dominant independent predictors of pulmonary function in patients with severe COPD.

Development of algorithm for work intensity evaluation using excess overwork index of construction workers with real-time heart rate measurement device

  • Jae-young Park;Jung Hwan Lee;Mo-Yeol Kang;Tae-Won Jang;Hyoung-Ryoul Kim;Se-Yeong Kim;Jongin Lee
    • Annals of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
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    • 제35권
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    • pp.24.1-24.15
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    • 2023
  • Background: The construction workers are vulnerable to fatigue due to high physical workload. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between overwork and heart rate in construction workers and propose a scheme to prevent overwork in advance. Methods: We measured the heart rates of construction workers at a construction site of a residential and commercial complex in Seoul from August to October 2021 and develop an index that monitors overwork in real-time. A total of 66 Korean workers participated in the study, wearing real-time heart rate monitoring equipment. The relative heart rate (RHR) was calculated using the minimum and maximum heart rates, and the maximum acceptable working time (MAWT) was estimated using RHR to calculate the workload. The overwork index (OI) was defined as the cumulative workload evaluated with the MAWT. An appropriate scenario line (PSL) was set as an index that can be compared to the OI to evaluate the degree of overwork in real-time. The excess overwork index (EOI) was evaluated in real-time during work performance using the difference between the OI and the PSL. The EOI value was used to perform receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to find the optimal cut-off value for classification of overwork state. Results: Of the 60 participants analyzed, 28 (46.7%) were classified as the overwork group based on their RHR. ROC curve analysis showed that the EOI was a good predictor of overwork, with an area under the curve of 0.824. The optimal cut-off values ranged from 21.8% to 24.0% depending on the method used to determine the cut-off point. Conclusion: The EOI showed promising results as a predictive tool to assess overwork in real-time using heart rate monitoring and calculation through MAWT. Further research is needed to assess physical workload accurately and determine cut-off values across industries.