• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction-Based

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Risk-Scoring System for Prediction of Non-Curative Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection Requiring Additional Gastrectomy in Patients with Early Gastric Cancer

  • Kim, Tae-Se;Min, Byung-Hoon;Kim, Kyoung-Mee;Yoo, Heejin;Kim, Kyunga;Min, Yang Won;Lee, Hyuk;Rhee, Poong-Lyul;Kim, Jae J.;Lee, Jun Haeng
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.368-378
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: When patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) undergo non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection requiring gastrectomy (NC-ESD-RG), additional medical resources and expenses are required for surgery. To reduce this burden, predictive model for NC-ESD-RG is required. Materials and Methods: Data from 2,997 patients undergoing ESD for 3,127 forceps biopsy-proven differentiated-type EGCs (2,345 and 782 in training and validation sets, respectively) were reviewed. Using the training set, the logistic stepwise regression analysis determined the independent predictors of NC-ESD-RG (NC-ESD other than cases with lateral resection margin involvement or piecemeal resection as the only non-curative factor). Using these predictors, a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG was developed. Performance of the predictive model was examined internally with the validation set. Results: Rate of NC-ESD-RG was 17.3%. Independent pre-ESD predictors for NC-ESD-RG included moderately differentiated or papillary EGC, large tumor size, proximal tumor location, lesion at greater curvature, elevated or depressed morphology, and presence of ulcers. A risk-score was assigned to each predictor of NC-ESD-RG. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting NC-ESD-RG was 0.672 in both training and validation sets. A risk-score of 5 points was the optimal cut-off value for predicting NC-ESD-RG, and the overall accuracy was 72.7%. As the total risk score increased, the predicted risk for NC-ESD-RG increased from 3.8% to 72.6%. Conclusions: We developed and validated a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG based on pre-ESD variables. Our risk-scoring system can facilitate informed consent and decision-making for preoperative treatment selection between ESD and surgery in patients with EGC.

Does Vitex Agnus-Castus L. Have Deleterious Effect on Fertility and Pregnancy Outcome? An Experimental Study on Rats for Prediction of Its Safety

  • Najib, Fateme Sadat;Poordast, Tahereh;Mahmudi, Monireh Sufi;Shiravani, Zahra;Namazi, Niloofar;Omrani, Gholamhossein Ranjbar
    • Journal of Pharmacopuncture
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.106-113
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: Herbal medicine is a worldwide health topic. Vitex agnus-castus L. (VAC) is a popular plant used for gynecologic problems due to its hormonal effects. The aim of this study is to reveal VAC extract effect on fetus when this herb is used started from antenatal period or during pregnancy. Methods: Performed from starting day of January 2019 till February 2019, 48 rats were assigned in randomly divided eight-member six groups: control (C1), treated group with 365 mg/kg VAC from initiation of insemination (T1) and 30 days prior to pregnancy (T2), control that underwent caesarean section on 15th day of gestational age (C2) and treated group with 365 mg/kg VAC from initiation of insemination (T3) and 30 days prior to pregnancy (T4) that underwent caesarean section. Weight, sex and number of fetuses, abortion and still birth rate and estradiol level were evaluated using t-test by SPSS software. Results: We showed increased weight among T1 group considering totally and sex-dependent which is significant (all p-value < 0.05). We also detected significantly decreased weight in T2 in total (p-value < 0.0001) and when considering female fetuses (0.043) but not males (0.17). Although the results showed slightly non-significant increased weight among fetuses of T3 (totally or based on the fetus sex) compared to the control group (C2), T4 group had statistically decreased weight compared to control group. Pregnancy rate and pregnancy outcome were affected by VAC usage. The time of VAC initiation also affected live birth and abortion rates. Conclusion: VAC extract may affect pregnancy rate, live birth rate, abortion and stillbirth rates. Its effect on the weight and the sex showed dual pattern depends on the time of initiation and pregnancy trimester of evaluation. Prescribing this medicinal plant for patients being prone to pregnancy should be with caution. Further study is recommended.

Development of online drone control management information platform (온라인 드론방제 관리 정보 플랫폼 개발)

  • Lim, Jin-Taek;Lee, Sang-Beom
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.193-198
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    • 2021
  • Recently, interests in the 4th industry have increased the level of demand for pest control by farmers in the field of rice farming, and the interests and use of agricultural pest control drones. Therefore, the diversification of agricultural control drones that spray high-concentration pesticides and the increase of agricultural exterminators due to the acquisition of national drone certifications are rapidly developing the agricultural sector in the drone industry. In addition, as detailed projects, an effective platform is required to construct large-scale big data due to pesticide management, exterminator management, precise spraying, pest control work volume classification, settlement, soil management, prediction and monitoring of damages by pests, etc. and to process the data. However, studies in South Korea and other countries on development of models and programs to integrate and process the big data such as data analysis algorithms, image analysis algorithms, growth management algorithms, AI algorithms, etc. are insufficient. This paper proposed an online drone pest control management information platform to meet the needs of managers and farmers in the agricultural field and to realize precise AI pest control based on the agricultural drone pest control processor using drones and presented foundation for development of a comprehensive management system through empirical experiments.

Development of Time-based Safety Performance Function for Freeways (세부 집계단위별 교통 특성을 반영한 고속도로 안전성능함수 개발)

  • Kang, Kawon;Park, Juneyoung;Lee, Kiyoung;Park, Joonggyu;Song, Changjun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.203-213
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    • 2021
  • A vehicle crash occurs due to various factors such as the geometry of the road section, traffic, and driver characteristics. A safety performance function has been used in many studies to estimate the relationship between vehicle crash and road factors statistically. And depends on the purpose of the analysis, various characteristic variables have been used. And various characteristic variables have been used in the studies depending on the purpose of analysis. The existing domestic studies generally reflect the average characteristics of the sections by quantifying the traffic volume in macro aggregate units such as the ADT, but this has a limitation that it cannot reflect the real-time changing traffic characteristics. Therefore, the need for research on effective aggregation units that can flexibly reflect the characteristics of the traffic environment arises. In this paper, we develop a safety performance function that can reflect the traffic characteristics in detail with an aggregate unit for one hour in addition to the daily model used in the previous studies. As part of the present study, we also perform a comparison and evaluation between models. The safety performance function for daily and hourly units is developed using a negative binomial regression model with the number of accidents as a dependent variable. In addition, the optimal negative binomial regression model for each of the hourly and daily models was selected, and their prediction performances were compared. The model and evaluation results presented in this paper can be used to determine the risk factors for accidents in the highway section considering the dynamic characteristics. In addition, the model and evaluation results can also be used as the basis for evaluating the availability and transferability of the hourly model.

Prediction of Potential Habitat and Damage Amount of Rare·Endemic Plants (Sophora Koreensis Nakai) Using NBR and MaxEnt Model Analysis - For the Forest Fire Area of Bibongsan (Mt.) in Yanggu - (NBR과 MaxEnt 모델 분석을 활용한 희귀특산식물(개느삼) 분포 및 피해량 예측 - 양구 비봉산 산불피해지를 대상으로-)

  • Yun, Ho-Geun;Lee, Jong-Won;An, Jong-Bin;Yu, Seung-Bong;Bak, Gi-Ppeum;Shin, Hyun-Tak;Park, Wan-Geun;Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.169-182
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to predict the distribution of rare·endemic plants (Sophora koreensis Nakai) in the border forests where wildfire damage occurred and to quantify the damage. For this purpose, we tried to derive more accurate results through forest area damage (NBR) according to the Burn severity of wildfires, damage by tree species type (Vegetation map), and MaxEnt model. For Burn severity analysis, satellite imagery (Landsat-8) was used to analyze Burn severity (ΔNBR2016-2015) and to derive the extent of damage. To prepare the Vegetation map, the land cover map prepared by the Ministry of Environment, the Vegetation map prepared by the Korea Forest Service, and the vegetation survey conducted by itself were conducted to prepare the clinical map before and after the forest fire. Lastly, for MaxEnt model analysis, the AUC value was derived by using the habitat coordinates of Sophora koreensis Nakai based on the related literature and self-report data. As a result of combining the Maxent model analysis data with the Burn severity data, it was confirmed that 45.9% of the 44,760 m2 of habitat (predicted) area of Sophora koreensis Nakai in the wildfire damaged area or 20,552 m2, was damaged.

Evaluation of the future monthly groundwater level vulnerable period using LSTM model based observation data in Mihostream watershed (LSTM을 활용한 관측자료 기반 미호천 유역 미래 월 단위 지하수위 관리 취약 시기 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Beom;Agossou, Amos;Yang, Jeong-Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.481-494
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    • 2022
  • This study proposed a evaluation of the monthly vulnerable period for groundwater level management in the Miho stream watershed and a technique for evaluating the vulnerable period for future groundwater level management using LSTM. Observation data from groundwater level and precipitation observation stations in the Miho stream watershed were collected, LSTM was constructed, predicted values for precipitation and groundwater levels from 2020 to 2022 were calculated, and future groundwater management was evaluated when vulnerable. In order to evaluate the vulnerable period of groundwater level management, the correlation between groundwater level and precipitation was considered, and weights were calculated to consider changes caused by climate change. As a result of the evaluation, the Miho stream watershed showed high vulnerability to underground water management in February, March, and June, and especially near the Cheonan Susin observation well, the vulnerability index for groundwater level management is expected to deteriorate in the future. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the evaluation of the vulnerable period of groundwater level management and the derivation of preemptive countermeasures to the problem of groundwater resources in the basin by presenting future prediction techniques using LSTM.

Comparison of Prediction Accuracy Between Classification and Convolution Algorithm in Fault Diagnosis of Rotatory Machines at Varying Speed (회전수가 변하는 기기의 고장진단에 있어서 특성 기반 분류와 합성곱 기반 알고리즘의 예측 정확도 비교)

  • Moon, Ki-Yeong;Kim, Hyung-Jin;Hwang, Se-Yun;Lee, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.280-288
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    • 2022
  • This study examined the diagnostics of abnormalities and faults of equipment, whose rotational speed changes even during regular operation. The purpose of this study was to suggest a procedure that can properly apply machine learning to the time series data, comprising non-stationary characteristics as the rotational speed changes. Anomaly and fault diagnosis was performed using machine learning: k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest. To compare the diagnostic accuracy, an autoencoder was used for anomaly detection and a convolution based Conv1D was additionally used for fault diagnosis. Feature vectors comprising statistical and frequency attributes were extracted, and normalization & dimensional reduction were applied to the extracted feature vectors. Changes in the diagnostic accuracy of machine learning according to feature selection, normalization, and dimensional reduction are explained. The hyperparameter optimization process and the layered structure are also described for each algorithm. Finally, results show that machine learning can accurately diagnose the failure of a variable-rotation machine under the appropriate feature treatment, although the convolution algorithms have been widely applied to the considered problem.

Impact of the Crossed-Structures Installed in Streams and Prediction of Fish Abundance in the Seomjin River System, Korea (하천에 설치된 횡구조물의 영향 및 섬진강 수계의 어류 풍부도 예측)

  • Moon, Woon Ki;Noh, Da Hye;Yoo, Jae Sang;Lim, O Young;Kim, Myoung Chul;Kim, Ji Hye;Lee, Jeong Min;Kim, Jai Ku
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.100-106
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    • 2022
  • The relationships between river length and weir density versus fish species observed were analyzed for 210 local rivers in the Seomjin River system (SJR). A nonlinear exponential relationship between river length and number of fish species were observed. Model coefficient was 0.03 and coefficient of determinant (R2) was 0.59, meaning that about 59.0% of total variance was explained by river length variable. Predicted value by model and observed number of species showed a difference. About 110 local rivers (about 52.4%) showed lower value than predictive value. The average index of weir's density (IWD) in the SJR was about 2.7/km, which was significantly higher than that of other river basins. As a result of nonparametric 2-Kimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov (2-DKS) analysis based on the IWD, the threshold value affecting fish diversity was about 2.5/km (Dmax=0.048, p<0.05). Above the threshold value, it means that the number of fish species would be decreased. In fact, the ratio of the expected species to the observed species was lowered to less than 70%, when the IWD is higher than the threshold value. To maintain aquatic ecological connectivity in future, it is necessary to manage IWD below the threshold value.

Operating Budget Management Plan on Electric Energy Consumption of Educational Facilities (교육시설물의 전기에너지 사용량에 따른 운영예산 관리방안)

  • Wang, Ji-Hwan;Jin, Chengquan;Lee, Sanghoon;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.26-35
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    • 2022
  • The 7th education reform in 1997 has led changes in the way buildings were constructed and such changes drove educational facilities to steadily consume more energy every year. Also, these facilities take several years' estimated expenditure as well as the increased unit price of electricity into account when planning their annual operating budget. Such circumstances may adversely affect the establishment of their budget plan since improper allocation of operating costs could take place. To propose educational facilities' operating budget management plan on electrical energy consumption, this study developed a model that help oversee the facilities' consumption of electrical energy. For the model development, the primary core variables related to electrical energy factors from the aspects of surroundings, physics, policy, etc. were derived from taking both literature research and the characteristics of these facilities into account. The secondary core variables were then derived using the correlation analysis. Lastly, the electric energy use prediction model was developed by performing regression analysis based on the derived secondary core variables.

Identification of a conservative site in the African swine fever virus p54 protein and its preliminary application in a serological assay

  • Xu, Lingyu;Cao, Chenfu;Yang, Zhiyi;Jia, Weixin
    • Journal of Veterinary Science
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.55.1-55.12
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    • 2022
  • Background: ASF was first reported in Kenya in 1910 in 1921. In China, ASF spread to 31 provinces including Henan and Jiangsu within six months after it was first reported on August 3, 2018. The epidemic almost affected the whole China, causing direct economic losses of tens of billions of yuan. Cause great loss to our pig industry. As ELISA is cheap and easy to operate, OIE regards it as the preferred serological method for ASF detection. P54 protein has good antigenicity and is an ideal antigen for detection. Objective: To identify a conservative site in the African swine fever virus (ASFV) p54 protein and perform a Cloth-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting the ASFV antibody in order to reduce risks posed by using the live virus in diagnostic assays. Method: We used bioinformatics methods to predict the antigen epitope of the ASFV p54 protein in combination with the antigenic index and artificially synthesized the predicted antigen epitope peptides. Using ASFV-positive serum and specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), we performed indirect ELISA and blocking ELISA to verify the immunological properties of the predicted epitope polypeptide. Results: The results of our prediction revealed that the possible antigen epitope regions were A23-29, A36-45, A72-94, A114-120, A124-130, and A137-150. The indirect ELISA showed that the peptides A23-29, A36-45, A72-94, A114-120, and A137-150 have good antigenicity. Moreover, the A36-45 polypeptide can react specifically with the mAb secreted by hybridoma cells, and its binding site contains a minimum number of essential amino acids in the sequence 37DIQFINPY44. Conclusions: Our study confirmed a conservative antigenic site in the ASFV p54 protein and its amino acid sequence. A competitive ELISA method for detecting ASFV antibodies was established based on recombinant p54 and matching mAb. Moreover, testing the protein sequence alignment verified that the method can theoretically detect antibodies produced by pigs affected by nearly all ASFVs worldwide.