• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.179-190
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• 1994

Financial variables have been used in bankruptcy prediction. Despite of possible errors in prediction, most existing approaches do not consider the causal time sequence of prediction activity and bankruptcy phenomena. This paper proposes a prediction method using Neyman-Pearson Theorem and Bayes' rule. The proposed method uses posterior probability concept and determines a prediction policy with appropriate error rate.

• The korean journal of orthodontics
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.102-111
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• 2022

Objective: To develop and explore the usefulness of an artificial intelligence system for the prediction of the need for dental extractions during orthodontic treatments based on gender, model variables, and cephalometric records. Methods: The gender, model variables, and radiographic records of 214 patients were obtained from an anonymized data bank containing 314 cases treated by two experienced orthodontists. The data were processed using an automated machine learning software (Auto-WEKA) and used to predict the need for extractions. Results: By generating and comparing several prediction models, an accuracy of 93.9% was achieved for determining whether extraction is required or not based on the model and radiographic data. When only model variables were used, an accuracy of 87.4% was attained, whereas a 72.7% accuracy was achieved if only cephalometric information was used. Conclusions: The use of an automated machine learning system allows the generation of orthodontic extraction prediction models. The accuracy of the optimal extraction prediction models increases with the combination of model and cephalometric data for the analytical process.

• Educational Technology International
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.71-88
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• 2014

A variety of studies to predict students' performance have been conducted since educational data such as web-log files traced from Learning Management System (LMS) are increasingly used to analyze students' learning behaviors. However, it is still challenging to predict students' learning achievement in blended learning environment where online and offline learning are combined. In higher education, diverse cases of blended learning can be formed from simple use of LMS for administrative purposes to full usages of functions in LMS for online distance learning class. As a result, a generalized model to predict students' academic success does not fulfill diverse cases of blended learning. This study compares two blended learning classes with each prediction model. The first blended class which involves online discussion-based learning revealed a linear regression model, which explained 70% of the variance in total score through six variables including total log-in time, log-in frequencies, log-in regularities, visits on boards, visits on repositories, and the number of postings. However, the second case, a lecture-based class providing regular basis online lecture notes in Moodle show weaker results from the same linear regression model mainly due to non-linearity of variables. To investigate the non-linear relations between online activities and total score, RF (Random Forest) was utilized. The results indicate that there are different set of important variables for the two distinctive types of blended learning cases. Results suggest that the prediction models and data-mining technique should be based on the considerations of diverse pedagogical characteristics of blended learning classes.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.352-359
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• 2023

Recently, independent suspension systems have been applied not only to passenger cars but also to large commercial vehicles. Therefore, the need for research to domestically produce such independent suspensions for large commercial vehicles is gradually increasing. In this paper, we conducted research on the manufacturing technology of the relay lever, which are integral components of independent suspension systems for large commercial vehicles. Our goal was to reduce the flash volume generated during the forging process. The shape variables of the initial billet were adjusted to find proper forming conditions that could minimize flash volume while performing product forming smoothly. Shape variables were set as input variables and the flash volume was set as an output variable, and simulations were carried out to analytically predict the volume of the flash area for each variable condition. Based on the data obtained through numerical simulations, a regression model and an artificial neural network model were used to develop a prediction model that can easily predict the flash volume for variable conditions. For the corresponding prediction model, a goodness of-fit test was performed to confirm a high level of fit. By comparing and analyzing the two prediction models, the high level of fit of the ANN model was confirmed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.383-396
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• 2017

The model in our approach assumes that computer responses are a realization of a Gaussian processes superimposed on a regression model called a Gaussian process regression model (GPRM). Selecting a subset of variables or building a good reduced model in classical regression is an important process to identify variables influential to responses and for further analysis such as prediction or classification. One reason to select some variables in the prediction aspect is to prevent the over-fitting or under-fitting to data. The same reasoning and approach can be applicable to GPRM. However, only a few works on the variable selection in GPRM were done. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to build a good prediction model among some GPRMs. It is a post-work of the algorithm that includes the Welch method suggested by previous researchers. The proposed algorithms select some non-zero regression coefficients (${\beta}^{\prime}s$) using forward and backward methods along with the Lasso guided approach. During this process, the fixed were covariance parameters (${\theta}^{\prime}s$) that were pre-selected by the Welch algorithm. We illustrated the superiority of our proposed models over the Welch method and non-selection models using four test functions and one real data example. Future extensions are also discussed.

• International Journal of Contents
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.75-82
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper was to identify suitable variables for financial distress prediction models and to compare the accuracy of MDA and LA for early warning signals for wind energy companies in Korea. The research methods, discriminant analysis and logit analysis have been widely used. The data set consisted of 15 wind energy SMEs in KOSDAQ with financial statements in 2012 from KIS-Value. We found that five financial ratio variables were statistically significant and the accuracy of MDA was 86%, while that of LA is 100%. The importance of this study is that it demonstrates empirically that financial distress prediction models are applicable to the wind energy industry in Korea as an early warning signs of impending bankruptcy.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.5-11
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• 2013

Purpose - Going concern is one of fundamental concepts in accounting and auditing and sometimes the assessment of a company's going concern status that is a tough process. Various going concern prediction models' based on statistical and data mining methods help auditors and stakeholders suggested in the previous literature. Research design - This paper employs a data mining approach to prediction of going concern status of Iranian firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange using Particle Swarm Optimization. To reach this goal, at the first step, we used the stepwise discriminant analysis it is selected the final variables from among of 42 variables and in the second stage; we applied a grid-search technique using 10-fold cross-validation to find out the optimal model. Results - The empirical tests show that the particle swarm optimization (PSO) model reached 99.92% and 99.28% accuracy rates for training and holdout data. Conclusions - The authors conclude that PSO model is applicable for prediction going concern of Iranian listed companies.

• Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.71-80
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• 2024

Objective: This study aimed to explore the brain connectivity between brain and biomechanical variables by exploring motion recognition through FFT (fast fourier transform) analysis and AI (artificial intelligence) focusing on quiet standing movement patterns. Method: Participants included 12 young adult males, comprising university students (n=6) and elite gymnasts (n=6). The first experiment involved FFT of biomechanical signals (f_CoP, f_AJtorque and f_EEG), and the second experiment explored the optimization of AI-based GRU (gated recurrent unit) using f_EEG data. Results: Significant differences (p<.05) were observed in frequency bands and maximum power based on group and posture types in the first experiment. The second study improved motion prediction accuracy through GRU performance metrics derived from brain signals. Conclusion: This study delved into the movement pattern of upright standing posture through the analysis of bio-signals linking the cerebral cortex to motor performance, culminating in the attainment of motion recognition prediction performance.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.319-331
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• 2022

In this paper, we develop a new statistical model to forecast the PM_2.5 level in Seoul, South Korea. The proposed model is based on the extreme quantile regression model with lasso penalty. Various meteorological variables and air pollution variables are considered as predictors in the regression model, and the lasso quantile regression performs variable selection and solves the multicollinearity problem. The final prediction model is obtained by combining various extreme lasso quantile regression estimators and we construct a binary classifier based on the model. Prediction performance is evaluated through the statistical measures of the performance of a binary classification test. We observe that the proposed method works better compared to the other classification methods, and predicts 'very bad' cases of the PM_2.5 level well.

• Journal of KSNVE
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.253-259
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• 1996

Neighboring buildings which are sufficiently close to both sides of an urban street reflect sound back to the road and sound energy is increased by thses reflectors. Therefore, this study is forcussed on the prediction modeling for road traffic noise under reflective conditions. A part of a block in urban road is regared as a box. The sound energy density in the box is employed to establish prediction formulas in terms of independent variables. The variables. The validity of the proposed prediction method has been experimentally confirmed by applying it to actually measured road traffic noise data. On the whole, the agreement between measured and predicted noise levels appeared to be satisfactory.