• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.569-577
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• 2012

기업도산에 대한 분석과 관리는 기업의 성과와 성장능력을 평가하는 재무관리 분야에서 중요하게 인식되어 왔다. 결국, 기업도산 예측에 대한 효과적인 모형이 필요하게 된다. 본 논문은 서포트 벡터 기계의 한 종류인 토탈 여유도 알고리즘을 이용하여 기업도산 예측을 위하여 새로운 접근 방법을 서술한다. 몇 개의 실제 자료를 통하여 제안한 방법들이 도산 위험의 평가에서 기존의 방법들보다 개선됨을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.109-120
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• 2013

As information-oriented industry has been developed and electronic devices has come to be smaller, lighter, multifunctional, and high speed, the components used to the devices need to be much high density and should have find pattern due to high integration. Also, diverse reliability problems happen as user environment is getting harsher. For this reasons, establishing and securing products and components reliability comes to key factor in company's competitiveness. It makes accelerated test important to check product reliability in fast way. Out of fine pattern failure modes, failure of Electrochemical Migration(ECM) is kind of degradation of insulation resistance by electro-chemical reaction, which it comes to be accelerated by biased voltage in high temperature and high humidity environment. In this thesis, the accelerated life test for failure caused by ECM on fine pattern substrate, $20/20{\mu}m$ pattern width/space applied by Semi Additive Process, was performed, and through this test, the investigation of failure mechanism and the life-time prediction evaluation under actual user environment was implemented. The result of accelerated test has been compared and estimated with life distribution and life stress relatively by using Minitab software and its acceleration rate was also tested. Through estimated weibull distribution, B10 life has been estimated under 95% confidence level of failure data happened in each test conditions. And the life in actual usage environment has been predicted by using generalized Eyring model considering temperature and humidity by developing Arrhenius reaction rate theory, and acceleration factors by test conditions have been calculated.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.40-43
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• 2000

In this paper, we investigate how the average survival time of listed companies in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) are affected by changes in macro-economic environment and covariate vectors which show peculiar financial characteristics of each company. We also apply the survival analysis approach to the dichotomous firm failure prediction and the results show a similar pattern of forecasting performance using the existing dichotomous prediction techniques. These findings suggest that, when we consider a bankruptcy model under a certain economic event, the survival approach can be a useful alternative to the existing dichotomous prediction methods since the approach provides estimation of average survival time as well as simple binary prediction.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.75-86
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• 2020

The grid structures with welded hollow spherical joint (WHSJ) have gained increasing popularity for use in industrial buildings with suspended cranes, and usually welded with steel tube (ST). The fatigue performance of steel tube-welded hollow spherical joint (ST-WHSJ) is however not yet well characterized, and there is little research on fatigue life prediction methods of ST-WHSJ. In this study, based on previous fatigue tests, three series of specimen fatigue data with different design parameters and stress ratios were compared, and two fatigue failure modes were revealed: failure at the weld toe of the ST and the WHSJ respectively. Then, S-N curves of nominal stress were uniformed. Furthermore, a finite element model (FEM) was validated by static test, and was introduced to assess fatigue behavior with the hot spot stress method (HSSM) and the effective notch stress method (ENSM). Both methods could provide conservative predictions, and these two methods had similar results. However, ENSM, especially when using von Mises stress, had a better fit for the series with a non- positive stress ratio. After including the welding residual stress and mean stress, analyses with the local stress method (LSM) and the critical distance method (CDM, including point method and line method) were carried out. It could be seen that the point method of CDM led to more accurate predictions than LSM, and was recommended for series with positive stress ratios.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제16권9호
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• pp.405-412
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• 2018

영화 흥행의 예측이 필요한 시점은 영화 제작 전에 시나리오에 대한 투자를 결정하는 시점이다. 이런 요구에 따라 최근 인공지능 기반 시나리오 분석 서비스가 출시되었으나, 아직 그 알고리즘이 완벽하지는 않다. 본 연구의 목적은 인간의 뇌 작동 기작에 기반 하여, 영화 시나리오 흥행 예측 모형을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위해 베버의 자극 반응 법칙과 뇌의 자극 기작 이론 등을 적용하여, 디즈니 애니메이션 흥행작의 시각, 청각, 인지적 자극의 타임 스펙트럼 패턴 도출을 시도한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 흥행작에서 나타난 뇌 자극의 빈도가 비 흥행작보다 약 1.79배가 많았다. 둘째로, 흥행작에서는 지각 자극 코드들이 타임 스펙트럼 상에 고른 분포를 보인 반면에 비흥행작에서는 집중 분포를 보였다. 셋째로, 흥행작에서는 인지적 부담이 큰 인지적 자극은 주로 단독적으로 등장한 반면에, 인지적 부담이 적은 시각적, 청각적 자극은 두 가지가 동시에 등장하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.153-160
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• 2009

The demand for super tall building construction is increasing worldwide. There has been a constant request for achieving early payback on investment by shortening the construction time. This pertains especially for the case of huge investment projects such as super tall building construction. It is very important to shorten the construction time for the building framework, which requires substantial construction time and cost, and this is directly related to the establishment of an optimum lift plan for construction. When there is a problem in the selection of the lift equipment, it is almost impossible to revise the selection, resulting in a possible failure of the project. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze the function and logic for the development of the process for the selection of lift equipment for super tall building projects and further development of making the analyzed process into a system. In line with this research objective, the process of selecting the optimum lift equipment by domestic construction company was investigated and analyzed as well as collecting the actual field data. The actual data were obtained by sensors installed on tower cranes at three construction sites with the help from the construction company.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.15-21
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• 2023

In modern society, the delivery service market has grown explosively due to rapid changes in social structure and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, various problems such as injury to workers and an increase in human accidents are occurring due to the loading and unloading of parcels. In order to solve this problem, domestic company n is developing a "robot-based cargo loading and unloading system". In developing a new technology system, quantitative reliability targets should be set for efficient operation and development. In this paper, reliability analysis was conducted through field data for the pneumatic gripper of the "robot-based cargo loading system". The reliability of the failure data was analyzed to estimate the distribution parameters and MTTF. Random data was derived for the probability of occurrence of a failure with the estimated value. By repeating the simulation to predict the number and year of failures according to the estimated parameters of the probability distribution, it was proposed as a method that reflects realistic probabilities rather than calculating with simple arithmetic using the average MTTF previously used in the field.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제3권6호
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• pp.1468-1472
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• 1996

본 연구에서는 CART(Classification and Regression Tree)가 예측을 함에 있어 통계적인 기법인 discriminant analysis와 비교된다. 은행 데이터를 사용하는 경우 discriminant analysis가 더 나은 성능을 보여줬으며, 보험 회사 데이터를 사용한 경 우 CART가 더 나은 성능을 보여줬다. 이러한 모순된 결과가 데이터의 성격을 분석함 으로 해석된다. 본 연구에서는 두가지 모델 모두 사용된 매개변수들인 사전 확률, 데 이터, 타입 I/II오류 코스트, 검증 방법에 의해 성능의 차이를 보여줬다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1996년도 Proceedings of the Korea Automatic Control Conference, 11th (KACC); Pohang, Korea; 24-26 Oct. 1996
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• pp.271-274
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• 1996

In this paper we made a reliability analysis of power system pumps by using the dimensional reduction method which over comes the problem due to unavailability of enpugh data in the actual systems under many different operational environments. Hence a resonable method was proposed to determine the optimum maintenance interval of given pump in thermal power stations. This analysis was based on an actual data set of pumps for over ten years in thermal power stations belonged to Kyushu Electric Power Company, Japan.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제34권7호
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• pp.911-917
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 열적-기계적 주기하중을 받고 있는 엔진 배기매니폴드에 대해서 열응력 해석방법과 열피로수명 예측과정을 제시하였다. 즉, 파손현상이 복잡한 배기시스템의 효율적인 유한요소 모델링 방법과 온도 의존성 재료의 시험결과를 이용한 해석 데이터 구성, 그리고 열사이클 하중에 대한 열응력 및 파손 예측방법을 디젤엔진의 배기매니폴드에 대해서 나타내었다. 일반적으로 배기매니폴드의 파손 취약부에서는 고온영역에서 큰 압축소성변형이 발생하고 냉각시에는 인장의 잔류응력이 나타난다. 따라서 이같은 응력과 변형률의 이력곡선으로부터 소성변형의 진폭 또는 소성에너지의 크기를 얻을 수 있으며 이를 통해서 피로수명을 예측할 수 있다.