• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.569-577
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• 2012

The analysis and management of business failure has been recognized to be important in the area of financial management in the evaluation of firms' performance and the assessment of their viability. To this end, effective failure-prediction models are needed. This paper describes a new approach to prediction of business failure using the total margin algorithm which is a kind of support vector machine. It will be shown that the proposed method can evaluate the risk of failure better than existing methods through some real data.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.109-120
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• 2013

As information-oriented industry has been developed and electronic devices has come to be smaller, lighter, multifunctional, and high speed, the components used to the devices need to be much high density and should have find pattern due to high integration. Also, diverse reliability problems happen as user environment is getting harsher. For this reasons, establishing and securing products and components reliability comes to key factor in company's competitiveness. It makes accelerated test important to check product reliability in fast way. Out of fine pattern failure modes, failure of Electrochemical Migration(ECM) is kind of degradation of insulation resistance by electro-chemical reaction, which it comes to be accelerated by biased voltage in high temperature and high humidity environment. In this thesis, the accelerated life test for failure caused by ECM on fine pattern substrate, $20/20{\mu}m$ pattern width/space applied by Semi Additive Process, was performed, and through this test, the investigation of failure mechanism and the life-time prediction evaluation under actual user environment was implemented. The result of accelerated test has been compared and estimated with life distribution and life stress relatively by using Minitab software and its acceleration rate was also tested. Through estimated weibull distribution, B10 life has been estimated under 95% confidence level of failure data happened in each test conditions. And the life in actual usage environment has been predicted by using generalized Eyring model considering temperature and humidity by developing Arrhenius reaction rate theory, and acceleration factors by test conditions have been calculated.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.40-43
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• 2000

In this paper, we investigate how the average survival time of listed companies in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) are affected by changes in macro-economic environment and covariate vectors which show peculiar financial characteristics of each company. We also apply the survival analysis approach to the dichotomous firm failure prediction and the results show a similar pattern of forecasting performance using the existing dichotomous prediction techniques. These findings suggest that, when we consider a bankruptcy model under a certain economic event, the survival approach can be a useful alternative to the existing dichotomous prediction methods since the approach provides estimation of average survival time as well as simple binary prediction.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.75-86
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• 2020

The grid structures with welded hollow spherical joint (WHSJ) have gained increasing popularity for use in industrial buildings with suspended cranes, and usually welded with steel tube (ST). The fatigue performance of steel tube-welded hollow spherical joint (ST-WHSJ) is however not yet well characterized, and there is little research on fatigue life prediction methods of ST-WHSJ. In this study, based on previous fatigue tests, three series of specimen fatigue data with different design parameters and stress ratios were compared, and two fatigue failure modes were revealed: failure at the weld toe of the ST and the WHSJ respectively. Then, S-N curves of nominal stress were uniformed. Furthermore, a finite element model (FEM) was validated by static test, and was introduced to assess fatigue behavior with the hot spot stress method (HSSM) and the effective notch stress method (ENSM). Both methods could provide conservative predictions, and these two methods had similar results. However, ENSM, especially when using von Mises stress, had a better fit for the series with a non- positive stress ratio. After including the welding residual stress and mean stress, analyses with the local stress method (LSM) and the critical distance method (CDM, including point method and line method) were carried out. It could be seen that the point method of CDM led to more accurate predictions than LSM, and was recommended for series with positive stress ratios.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.405-412
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• 2018

When a film company decides whether to invest or not in a scenario is the appropriate time to predict box office success. In response to market demands, AI based scenario analysis service has been launched, yet the algorithm is by no means perfect. The purpose of this study is to present a prediction model of movie scenario's box office hit based on human brain processing mechanism. In order to derive patterns of visual, auditory, and cognitive stimuli on the time spectrum of box office animation hit, this study applied Weber's law and brain mechanism. The results are as follow. First, the frequency of brain stimulation in the biggest box office movies was 1.79 times greater than that in the failure movies. Second, in the box office success, the cognitive stimuli codes are spread evenly, whereas in the failure, concentrated among few intervals. Third, in the box office success movie, cognitive stimuli which have big cognition load appeared alone, whereas visual and auditory stimuli which have little cognitive load appeared simultaneously.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.153-160
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• 2009

The demand for super tall building construction is increasing worldwide. There has been a constant request for achieving early payback on investment by shortening the construction time. This pertains especially for the case of huge investment projects such as super tall building construction. It is very important to shorten the construction time for the building framework, which requires substantial construction time and cost, and this is directly related to the establishment of an optimum lift plan for construction. When there is a problem in the selection of the lift equipment, it is almost impossible to revise the selection, resulting in a possible failure of the project. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze the function and logic for the development of the process for the selection of lift equipment for super tall building projects and further development of making the analyzed process into a system. In line with this research objective, the process of selecting the optimum lift equipment by domestic construction company was investigated and analyzed as well as collecting the actual field data. The actual data were obtained by sensors installed on tower cranes at three construction sites with the help from the construction company.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.15-21
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• 2023

In modern society, the delivery service market has grown explosively due to rapid changes in social structure and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, various problems such as injury to workers and an increase in human accidents are occurring due to the loading and unloading of parcels. In order to solve this problem, domestic company n is developing a "robot-based cargo loading and unloading system". In developing a new technology system, quantitative reliability targets should be set for efficient operation and development. In this paper, reliability analysis was conducted through field data for the pneumatic gripper of the "robot-based cargo loading system". The reliability of the failure data was analyzed to estimate the distribution parameters and MTTF. Random data was derived for the probability of occurrence of a failure with the estimated value. By repeating the simulation to predict the number and year of failures according to the estimated parameters of the probability distribution, it was proposed as a method that reflects realistic probabilities rather than calculating with simple arithmetic using the average MTTF previously used in the field.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.3 no.6
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• pp.1468-1472
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• 1996

In this study, the performance of the CART(Classification and Regression Tree) is compared with that of discriminant analysis method. In most experiments using bank data, discriminant analysis shows better performance in terms of the total cost. In contrast, most experiments using insurance data show that the CART is better than discriminant analysis in terms of the total cost. The contradictory result are analysed by using the characteristics of the data sets. The performances of both the Classification and Regression Tree and discriminant analysis depend on the parameters:failure prior probability, data used, type I error, type II error cost, and validation method.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.271-274
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• 1996

In this paper we made a reliability analysis of power system pumps by using the dimensional reduction method which over comes the problem due to unavailability of enpugh data in the actual systems under many different operational environments. Hence a resonable method was proposed to determine the optimum maintenance interval of given pump in thermal power stations. This analysis was based on an actual data set of pumps for over ten years in thermal power stations belonged to Kyushu Electric Power Company, Japan.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.7
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• pp.911-917
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• 2010

In this study, we performed structural and fatigue analyses of the engine exhaust manifold that was subjected to thermo-mechanical cyclic loading. The methodologies used in this study are based on an approach in which the techniques for modeling the exhaust system, the temperature-dependent properties of the material, and thermal cyclic loading are taken into consideration and a reliable strategy is adopted for failure prediction. An application example shows that at an elevated temperature, considerable compressive plastic deformation is observed and that at a low temperature, tensile stresses remain in those parts of the test exhaust manifold where failure is observed. In order to predict fatigue life, mechanical damage is determined on the basis of the stress.strain hysteresis loops by using the classical Coffin.Manson equation and by adopting a method in which the dissipated plastic energy is taken into consideration.