• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction interval

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Non-Destructive Prediction of Head Rice Ratios using NIR Spectra of Hulled Rice (정조 상태에서 백미에 대한 완전미율의 비파괴 예측)

  • Kwon, Young-Rip;Cho, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Jae-Heung;Seo, Kyoung-Won;Choi, Dong-Chil
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.244-250
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to measure fundamental data required for the prediction of milling ratios, and to develop regression models to predict the head rice ratio of milled rice using NIR spectra of hulled rice. A total of 81 rice samples used in this study were collected from Jeongeup, Jeonbuk province in 2006. NIR spectra were measured using one mode of measurement, reflection. The reflectance spectra were measured in the wavelength region of 400-2500 nm with an NIR spectrophotometer "NIRSystems 6500" (Foss, Silverspring, USA). Calibration equations were developed by the modified partial least squares (MPLS), partial least squares (PLS), and principal components regression (PCR). Math treatments were 1-4-4-1, 1-10-10-1, 2-4-4-1, and 2-10-10-1. The software used was WinISI (Infrasoft International, State College, USA). Automatic head rice production and quality checking system used was "SY2000-AHRPQCS" (Ssangyong, Korea). The calibration was made with the first derivative and the spectrum designated was in 8 nm interval. The determination coefficients of head rice ratios were 0.8353, 0.8416 and 0.5277 for the MPLS, PLS and PCR, respectively. Those obtained with 20 nm interval were 0.8144, 0.8354 and 0.6908 for the MPLS, PLS and PCR, respectively. The calibration was made with second derivative that spectrum designated was 8 nm in interval. The determination coefficients of head rice ratios were 0.7994, 0.8017 and 0.4473 for the MPLS, PLS and PCR, respectively. Those with 20 nm interval were 0.8004, 0.8493 and 0.6609 for the MPLS, PLS and PCR, respectively. These results indicate that the accuracy of determination coefficient for MPLS and PLS is higher than that of PCR.

Estimation of Optimum Pile length Using Various Prediction (다양한 예측기법을 이용한 현장타설말뚝의 최적길이 산정)

  • Choi, Young-Seok;Iim, Hyung-Joon;Song, Myung-Jun;Jang, Hak-Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.700-707
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    • 2008
  • As plan connecting island to island or island to land is needed, a lot of long-span bridge is being designed lately in Southern part of Korea. With development of pile equipment, overhanging large-scaled concrete pile are adopted to foundation type of main tower or pylon. About the number of 15~30 group piles per tower foundation is designed to resist long-spaning super-structure load, but by restricted condition of site investigation cost, a few boring-hole tests are performed to identify sub-ground layers. Up to now, direct-curved method connecting two or three known boring logs and representative interval method are usually used to evaluate unknown depth and rock properties at locations where piles are constructed. Because this approach is not logical and so rough, much difference occurs between designed length of piles and real length of it. In this paper, using a lot of various prediction method(reciprocal distance method, inverse square distance method and kriging method etc.), we suggest optimum length of group piles.

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On-line Prediction Algorithm for Non-stationary VBR Traffic (Non-stationary VBR 트래픽을 위한 동적 데이타 크기 예측 알고리즘)

  • Kang, Sung-Joo;Won, You-Jip;Seong, Byeong-Chan
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.156-167
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we develop the model based prediction algorithm for Variable-Bit-Rate(VBR) video traffic with regular Group of Picture(GOP) pattern. We use multiplicative ARIMA process called GOP ARIMA (ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) as a base stochastic model. Kalman Filter based prediction algorithm consists of two process: GOP ARIMA modeling and prediction. In performance study, we produce three video traces (news, drama, sports) and we compare the accuracy of three different prediction schemes: Kalman Filter based prediction, linear prediction, and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm yields superior prediction accuracy than the other two. We also show that confidence interval analysis can effectively detect scene changes of the sample video sequence. The Kalman filter based prediction algorithm proposed in this work makes significant contributions to various aspects of network traffic engineering and resource allocation.

Development of a new test method for the prediction of TBM disc cutters life (TBM 디스크 커터의 수명 예측 방법 개발)

  • Kim, Dae-Young;Farrokh, Ebrahim;Jung, Jae-Hoon;Lee, Jae-Won;Jee, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.475-488
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    • 2017
  • Wear prediction of TBM disc cutters is a very important issue for hard rock TBMs as number of cutter head intervention. In this regard, some model such as NTNU, Gehring model, CSM models have been used to predict disc cutter wear and intervention interval. There are some deficiencies in these models. This paper developed a new test method for wear prediction for TBM disc cutter and proposed a new abrasion index. In this regard, different abrasivity indices along with their testing methods are explained. A comparative study is performed to develop the predictability of different cutter life evaluation methods and index. The evaluation of the new methods proposed in this paper shows a very good agreement with the actual cutter life and intervention interval length. The proposed tester and index can be easily used to predict the intervention interval length and cutter wear evaluation in both planning and construction stages of a TBM tunneling project.

Prediction of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation using Time-domain Analysis and Random Forest

  • Lee, Seung-Hwan;Kang, Dong-Won;Lee, Kyoung-Joung
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2018
  • The present study proposes an algorithm that can discriminate between normal subjects and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) patients, which is conducted using electrocardiogram (ECG) without PAF events. For this, time-domain features and random forest classifier are used. Time-domain features are obtained from Poincare plot, Lorenz plot of ${\delta}RR$ interval, and morphology analysis. Afterward, three features are selected in total through feature selection. PAF patients and normal subjects are classified using random forest. The classification result showed that sensitivity and specificity were 81.82% and 95.24% respectively, the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 96.43% and 76.92% respectively, and accuracy was 87.04%. The proposed algorithm had an advantage in terms of the computation requirement compared to existing algorithm, so it has suggested applicability in the more efficient prediction of PAF.

Visualizing Multi-Variable Prediction Functions by Segmented k-CPG's

  • Huh, Myung-Hoe
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.185-193
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    • 2009
  • Machine learning methods such as support vector machines and random forests yield nonparametric prediction functions of the form y = $f(x_1,{\ldots},x_p)$. As a sequel to the previous article (Huh and Lee, 2008) for visualizing nonparametric functions, I propose more sensible graphs for visualizing y = $f(x_1,{\ldots},x_p)$ herein which has two clear advantages over the previous simple graphs. New graphs will show a small number of prototype curves of $f(x_1,{\ldots},x_{j-1},x_j,x_{j+1}{\ldots},x_p)$, revealing statistically plausible portion over the interval of $x_j$ which changes with ($x_1,{\ldots},x_{j-1},x_{j+1},{\ldots},x_p$). To complement the visual display, matching importance measures for each of p predictor variables are produced. The proposed graphs and importance measures are validated in simulated settings and demonstrated for an environmental study.

Predicting depth value of the future depth-based multivariate record

  • Samaneh Tata;Mohammad Reza Faridrohani
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.453-465
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    • 2023
  • The prediction problem of univariate records, though not addressed in multivariate records, has been discussed by many authors based on records values. There are various definitions for multivariate records among which depth-based records have been selected for the aim of this paper. In this paper, by means of the maximum likelihood and conditional median methods, point and interval predictions of depth values which are related to the future depth-based multivariate records are considered on the basis of the observed ones. The observations derived from some elements of the elliptical distributions are the main reason of studying this problem. Finally, the satisfactory performance of the prediction methods is illustrated via some simulation studies and a real dataset about Kermanshah city drought.

A Prediction Method using Markov chain for Step Size Control in FMI based Co-simulation (FMI기반 co-simulation에서 step size control을 위한 Markov chain을 사용한 예측 방법)

  • Hong, Seokjoon;Lim, Ducsun;Kim, Wontae;Joe, Inwhee
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.1430-1439
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    • 2019
  • In Functional Mockup Interface(FMI)-based co-simulation, a bisectional algorithm can be used to find the zerocrossing point as a way to improve the accuracy of the simulation results. In this paper, the proposed master algorithm(MA) analyzes the repeated interval graph and predicts the next interval by applying the Markov Chain to the step size. In the simulation, we propose an algorithm to minimize the rollback by storing the step size that changes according to the graph type as an array and applying it to the next prediction interval when the rollback occurs in the simulation. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm reduces the simulation time by more than 20% compared to the existing algorithm.

A Prediction Model for Coating Thickness Based on PLS Model and Variable Selection (부분최소자승법과 변수선택을 이용한 코팅두께 예측모델 개발)

  • Lee, Hye-Seon;Lee, Young-Rok;Jun, Chi-Hyuck;Hong, Jae-Hwa
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 2010
  • Coating thickness is one of target variables in quality control process in steel industry. To predict coating thickness and to control quality of anti-fingerprint steel coils, ultraviolet-visible spectra are measured. We propose a variable-interval selection procedure based on the variable importance in projection in partial least square model. Using the proposed variable interval selection method, prediction performance gets better in the reduced model than the full model with full spectra absorbance. It is also shown that the first differencing as a data preprocessing technique does work well for the prediction of coating thickness.

Prediction Interval Estimation in Ttansformed ARMA Models (변환된 자기회귀이동평균 모형에서의 예측구간추정)

  • Cho, Hye-Min;Oh, Sung-Un;Yeo, In-Kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.541-550
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    • 2007
  • One of main aspects of time series analysis is to forecast future values of series based on values up to a given time. The prediction interval for future values is usually obtained under the normality assumption. When the assumption is seriously violated, a transformation of data may permit the valid use of the normal theory. We investigate the prediction problem for future values in the original scale when transformations are applied in ARMA models. In this paper, we introduce the methodology based on Yeo-Johnson transformation to solve the problem of skewed data whose modelling is relatively difficult in the analysis of time series. Simulation studies show that the coverage probabilities of proposed intervals are closer to the nominal level than those of usual intervals.